2018 Chicago Bears Season Props

[richig07]

The only actual bet available in sportsbooks is our win total. I made up the rest.

1. Total wins: over/under: 6 1/2

2. Jordan Howard rushing yards, over/under: 999 1/2

3. More receptions/yards: Kevin White in 2018 or Kevin White’s career totals (21 receptions for 193 yards)?

4. More interceptions: Mitch Trubisky or the Bears’ defense?

5. Total number of Bears on IR at end of season: Will Bears be towards the top of the league, yet again?

6. Make Playoffs: Yes/No?

7. Division Record? (6 games)

8. Total Turnover Differential? (+/-)

9. Defensive rank at Season End? (1-32)

10: Offensive Rank at Season End? (1-32)

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

1. Over, I’m thinking 6-7 losses is he worst they’ll finish.

2. Over, come on, man. You must be baiting @BsGenius with that one. That’s easy.

3. 2018, he doesn’t have to do much else but stay healthy and make the roster.

4. Tough, but I’ll go with Trubisky. I don’t see much in the secondary that will force interceptions. This defense doesn’t look like it has a lot of ball hawks. Trubisky will probably throw at least 10 ints. I think he’s going to be great, but next year is the year he throws the most ints in a season for his entire nfl career.

5. Are you’re asking if they’ll rank in the top 15 in total injuries, maybe. If youre talking about top 15 in significant injuries, I say maybe. I’ll say they’ll probably be in there too 15 either way. They just seem to do it every year.

6. The gambler in me says no, but my heart says yes. I’ll go the logical route and say no.

7. 4-2, defend Homefield and sweep lions.

8. Even 0. That’s too difficult of a question to ask without and over under.

9. Same as above. I’ll say top 10.

10. Same as above, but I’ll say 10-15. We will crush shitty teams and struggle against good ones.

 

[richig07]

2. Over, come on, man. You must be baiting @BsGenius with that one. That’s easy.

3. 2018, he doesn’t have to do much else but stay healthy and make the roster.

4. Tough, but I’ll go with Trubisky. I don’t see much in the secondary that will force interceptions. This defense doesn’t look like it has a lot of ball hawks. Trubisky will probably throw at least 10 ints. I think he’s going to be great, but next year is the year he throws the most ints in a season for his entire nfl career.

I think Jackson is a ball hawk. As is Fuller. Amos and those two guys are young. Typically, the turnovers come for DB's with confidence/experience and those guys have to be starting to get a little bit of each. Not to mention, QB pressure.

I think (if healthy) this can easily be a top 5 D. FWIW

Yeah, all White has to do is stay healthy for that. However, that's kind of the big question. lol

Per Howard, I figured everyone would take the over. I suppose I could have gone with 1,200. Which would have been somewhere between his first two season totals.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

I think Jackson is a ball hawk. As is Fuller. Amos and those two guys are young. Typically, the turnovers come for DB's with confidence/experience and those guys have to be starting to get a little bit of each. Not to mention, QB pressure.

I think (if healthy) this can easily be a top 5 D. FWIW

Yeah, all White has to do is stay healthy for that. However, that's kind of the big question. lol

Per Howard, I figured everyone would take the over. I suppose I could have gone with 1,200. Which would have been somewhere between his first two season totals.

When I say ball hawk, I mean someone who excels at picking off a lot of passes. Players have to earn that title. Jackson Amos and Fuller haven’t done that yet in their NFL careers. Other than Fullers 4 picks his rookie year, none of these players had more than two in a season.

I also don’t think our defense has the depth required to be truly elite yet, but they are good.

KW will stay healthy this year or play through injuries. He’s got to if he wants a paycheck next year.

 

[Ojb81]

The only actual bet available in sportsbooks is our win total. I made up the rest.

1. Total wins: over/under: 6 1/2
Gonna go with the over, Bears get 9 wins this season

2. Jordan Howard rushing yards, over/under: 999 1/2
Definitely gets over, I can see him with a good 1250+ yds rushing this season

3. More receptions/yards: Kevin White in 2018 or Kevin White’s career totals (21 receptions for 193 yards)?
More in 2018, but not by much; I see him right around 30 receptions assuming sound health

4. More interceptions: Mitch Trubisky or the Bears’ defense?
Bears' D will have at least 12-14, and I don't see Trubisky having more than 8-10

5. Total number of Bears on IR at end of season: Will Bears be towards the top of the league, yet again?
4

6. Make Playoffs: Yes/No?
No. Winning record, but they finish just outside that 2nd wildcard slot.

7. Division Record? (6 games)
3-3. Sweep Detroit, get swept by Minnesota, go 1-1 vs. GB

8. Total Turnover Differential? (+/-)
+7

9. Defensive rank at Season End? (1-32)
14

10: Offensive Rank at Season End? (1-32)
21

My answers in red.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

1. Total wins: over/under: 6 1/2

Over, I have them at 8

2. Jordan Howard rushing yards, over/under: 999 1/2

Under. This is going to be a more pass heavy team than people think, imo.

3. More receptions/yards: Kevin White in 2018 or Kevin White’s career totals (21 receptions for 193 yards)?

Seppuku.

4. More interceptions: Mitch Trubisky or the Bears’ defense?

I would hope it is the defense.

5. Total number of Bears on IR at end of season: Will Bears be towards the top of the league, yet again?

Probably middle of the pick

6. Make Playoffs: Yes/No?

No

7. Division Record? (6 games)

2-4

8. Total Turnover Differential? (+/-)

-3

9. Defensive rank at Season End? (1-32)

12th

10: Offensive Rank at Season End? (1-32)

20th

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

1. Total wins: over/under: 6 1/2 - 8-8

2. Jordan Howard rushing yards, over/under: 999 1/2 - 1274

3. More receptions/yards: Kevin White in 2018 or Kevin White’s career totals (21 receptions for 193 yards)? - More

4. More interceptions: Mitch Trubisky or the Bears’ defense? - Trubisky (unfortunately)

5. Total number of Bears on IR at end of season: Will Bears be towards the top of the league, yet again? NO!!!

6. Make Playoffs: Yes/No? - No

7. Division Record? (6 games) - 3-3

8. Total Turnover Differential? (+/-) - +4

9. Defensive rank at Season End? (1-32) - 8

10: Offensive Rank at Season End? (1-32) - 17

 

[richig07]

@Ojb81
@There is A Moose at 3rd

Surprised you guys think the defense will regress.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

@Ojb81
@There is A Moose at 3rd

Surprised you guys think the defense will regress.

I don't think it's a regression thing really. Just within reasonable variance.

Bears were 14th in DVOA fwiw.

 

[richig07]

KW will stay healthy this year or play through injuries. He’s got to if he wants a paycheck next year.

Problem is that his injuries have not been ones you can simply play through. Two leg breaks and a collarbone break. Another one of those and it's adios.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I don't think it's a regression thing really. Just within reasonable variance.

Bears were 14th in DVOA fwiw.

The Bears only had 169 drives. I think it would be fair to say raw defensive totals may be somewhat overvalued and/or ambiguous. Only 6 teams had fewer drives.

Those teams:

Atlanta
Dallas
Oakland
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
New England

Indianapolis also had 169 drives fwiw. All of these teams are dysfunctional on at least one side of the ball, and may or may not have had a coaching issue. In the Bears case I'd pretty confidently say that's the Offense; specifically the passing O. John Fox and Loggains are gone for good reason.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

The Bears only had 169 drives. I think it would be fair to say raw defensive totals may be somewhat overvalued and/or ambiguous. Only 6 teams had fewer drives.

Those teams:

Atlanta
Dallas
Oakland
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
New England

Indianapolis also had 169 drives fwiw. All of these teams are dysfunctional on at least one side of the ball, and may or may not have had a coaching issue. In the Bears case I'd pretty confidently say that's the Offense; specifically the passing O. John Fox and Loggains are gone for good reason.

Bears games will have a lot more frenetic pace to them I would think. Hopefully a existing passing game opens up the run more, but really it all comes down to how far this staff can trudge Trubisky along. Still a work in progress, imo.

 

[Ojb81]

@Ojb81
@There is A Moose at 3rd

Surprised you guys think the defense will regress.

Surprise, surprise muddafugga

 

[richig07]

Bears games will have a lot more frenetic pace to them I would think. Hopefully a existing passing game opens up the run more, but really it all comes down to how far this staff can trudge Trubisky along. Still a work in progress, imo.

Yeah, Trubisky is 100% a work in progress. There were performances, drives and certainly individual plays where you saw what could possibly be and it was impressive. However, he was also super raw. A lot of that was magnified by the poor crop of talent surrounding him, along with coaching. However, the footwork has to get there - it wasn't last year. He also needs to stop taking sacks. It was a tad absurd at times. He'd duck for cover very early on when he felt pressure and it killed drives. Sometimes he stepped directly into pressure. So many 2nd/3rd and 17's.

I think that stuff will be improved. How much, though? That remains to be seen. I would draft Trubs again, without a doubt. I love the kid and his ability. However, some Bears fans (IMO) really seem confident in him being a sure-fire thing. Which is odd to me.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Yeah, Trubisky is 100% a work in progress. There were performances, drives and certainly individual plays where you saw what could possibly be and it was impressive. However, he was also super raw. A lot of that was magnified by the poor crop of talent surrounding him, along with coaching. However, the footwork has to get there - it wasn't last year. He also needs to stop taking sacks. It was a tad absurd at times. He'd duck for cover very early on when he felt pressure and it killed drives. Sometimes he stepped directly into pressure. So many 2nd/3rd and 17's.

I think that stuff will be improved. How much, though? That remains to be seen. I would draft Trubs again, without a doubt. I love the kid and his ability. However, some Bears fans (IMO) really seem confident in him being a sure-fire thing. Which is odd to me.

Hopefully with more of a true west coast style & spread offense where the QB gets the ball out quicker, this alone should help reduce those negatives. And it will have to help a bit as well that he'll be taking a lot more snaps from the shotgun. All this is conjecture of course, but if we can't show a little extra optimism this time of year, then what good does it do being a diehard fan?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Hopefully with more of a true west coast style & spread offense where the QB gets the ball out quicker, this alone should help reduce those negatives. And it will have to help a bit as well that he'll be taking a lot more snaps from the shotgun. All this is conjecture of course, but if we can't show a little extra optimism this time of year, then what good does it do being a diehard fan?

I'll tell you this right now; if Nagy is bringing over what Reid was doing now, it's actually going to be closer to an air raid than a true west coast. It will not be a traditional WCO, imo.

 

[beardown07]

John Fox was old school conservative. That means that priority No. 1 for the QB was not to turn it over. Live to fight another day. Let the D keep you in games, and hope to win the turnover battle. Pretend he's Trent-fucking-Dilfer.

They prolly earfucked him to death about not forcing it to our shitty receivers.


Get a franchise QB and still handcuff him with oldschool mentality. Bears' MO over how many decades?

Surround the kid with some playmakers and let him loose. Teach him up and still utilize a good D and running game to afford that trust in him. The kid is a talented young man, with his head on straight. Let him play, and I think that is exactly the mindset with the hiring of Nagy.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

I'll tell you this right now; if Nagy is bringing over what Reid was doing now, it's actually going to be closer to an air raid than a true west coast. It will not be a traditional WCO, imo.

You know what, you just may be right. I really don't know what Nagy has in store for this O. I think early on tho, he may have to play it a touch safer than say the second half of the season to get all the kinks worked out. More slants, more screens, stuff like that. But hey, then again he may have Trubs come out firing with all guns a-blazin' for all we know.

 

[richig07]

I don't think it's a regression thing really. Just within reasonable variance.

Bears were 14th in DVOA fwiw.

If my memory serves correctly, they were right around top 5-6 in DVOA prior to yet another barrage of injuries to the front seven. They were pretty dominant for a good stretch, getting no help from the other side. To me, the sky is the limit if the unit stays healthy. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, though. Front-to-back. I don't see a hole.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

If my memory serves correctly, they were right around top 5-6 in DVOA prior to yet another barrage of injuries to the front seven. They were pretty dominant for a good stretch, getting no help from the other side. To me, the sky is the limit if the unit stays healthy. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, though. Front-to-back. I don't see a hole.

We don't have the power of clairvoyance, but I hear what you're saying. I try to generally stay conservative with these things unless I am extremely confident and I am not nearly there yet. Some good upside though and that's a good place to be as the Bears start competing next year; maybe they overachieve or improve more than expected and steal a playoff spot. Who knows. It's not a hopeless season at least.