2014 Top Prospects

[calsnowskier]

Well, let's look at that:

1. Pagan gone: this means we'd be trading him, since his K runs through 2016.
2. Panda gone: I assume you're letting him walk for the comp pick. I wanted a roster where we keep him.
3. Adrianza: good call; I should have had him as either the starting 2B with Arroyo on the bench or Arroyo at 2B with Ehire on the bench. Subtract Arias from my equation.
4. Trade Belt: good grief I hope not; dude's a fringy all-star right now. I suspect he'll break out and be locked up through 2018 to a Panda type contract.
5. Trade the Susser: you will be tracked down and shot for this.
6. CF from outside: quite possible, with Angel moving to the bench or included in the trade.
7. Pence to LF: quite possible, maybe even likely if Williamson can take RF (he's got a rocket arm).
8. Brown in CF: pretty unlikely; my hope at this point is that he can become a decent backup and a cheaper Blanco.
9. 2B from outside: not likely, unless Adrianza bombs. I think Arroyo is the future there, and Panik still has some potential. We seem to have enough 2B talent for 2016.
10. Bullpen: I could see Romo hanging around, but if he is gone that would mean Hembree/Law took the closer role and that would be a good thing. Petit would only be 31 and might hold down that long man/spot starter role for a while. Good call on Hall, he could very well make the club. I like Osich and the PorkPunter b/c they are lefties.

Oxy signed a 5-year? I thought he signed a 4 year. OK, I can see him manning center in that scenario.

The only reason I say "trade Belt" is because Posey needs to move to 3B or 1B to make room for Susac AND to protect his long-term health. I just dont see Belt moving to the OF. It is possible, but they had that opportunity last year with Oxy out and they didnt go that route, so I dont really see them going there in the future. After he blows up, can you imagine the haul we can get for him, though? Trade him to Houston for a nice package and he gets to go back home. I can see that happening...

I say outside the org for 2B mainly as a stop-gap. Arroyo IS the future there, but he is fresh out of HS. Give him a day or two before you give him the main-gig.

 

[tzill]

I disagree on quite a few...

Assuming no trades and no additions via FA...

C-Susac
1B-Belt
2B-Crawford/Panik/Arroyo (Craw if EA takes SS; Panik if CA is not ready)
SS-Crawford or Adrianza (Craw has edge)
3B-Posey
RF-Pence
CF-Brown (yuck)
LF-Mac

Hacktor will be the BUC. Pagan and Panda will be gone. Arroyo MAY end up the SS. He is supposed to actually have potential there. Ragira may be a dark horse for LF.



In reality, I expect Susac or Belt to be traded. We will likely have a 2B and CF from outside the org. Pence may be moved to LF by this point.

Rotation

Bum
Crick
Cain
Escobar
Mejia/Blackburn/Stratton/Blach/etc

Hembree or Law will be closer. Romo and Affeldt will be gone (Romo wearing Blue). Petit will be long gone. Hall will be a 7th inning guy.

And, question for you: if they extend Panda to Pence-like money, what does your 2016 lineup look like? Trade Belt? Say they also extend BB9 to Panda-like money, do we trade Susac?

 

[tzill]

Oxy signed a 5-year? I thought he signed a 4 year. OK, I can see him manning center in that scenario.

The only reason I say "trade Belt" is because Posey needs to move to 3B or 1B to make room for Susac AND to protect his long-term health. I just dont see Belt moving to the OF. It is possible, but they had that opportunity last year with Oxy out and they didnt go that route, so I dont really see them going there in the future. After he blows up, can you imagine the haul we can get for him, though? Trade him to Houston for a nice package and he gets to go back home. I can see that happening...

I say outside the org for 2B mainly as a stop-gap. Arroyo IS the future there, but he is fresh out of HS. Give him a day or two before you give him the main-gig.

I'd hate to trade Belt; I think people don't understand how good he already is, and he's 26. I just don't think you can get back enough in a trade to justify it, but you never know. I'd be giving Arroyo more than a minute -- two years in fact. Still, you're right, he'd only be 22. Could be a one year FA stopgap if he needs AAA

 

[calsnowskier]

I am NOT a Belt hater, by any stretch. I just see that at least one of Belt, Posey, Panda and Susac will need to go in the next year or two. Possibly two of them. Unless the NL adopts the DH.

Sure, it is POSSIBLE that they will move Belt to LF. But like I said earlier, last year was the time to at least try that, and they did not. Actions speak.

However, you posed the scenario where both Panda AND Belt were signed to 5/90 contracts. Fine. Given that scenario, Belt would HAVE to be moved to LF so Posey could take a corner and Susac takes the dish. However, that then blocks Mac, and I am not sure that is desirable either.

Good problems to have, for sure.

 

[tzill]

I am NOT a Belt hater, by any stretch. I just see that at least one of Belt, Posey, Panda and Susac will need to go in the next year or two. Possibly two of them. Unless the NL adopts the DH.

Sure, it is POSSIBLE that they will move Belt to LF. But like I said earlier, last year was the time to at least try that, and they did not. Actions speak.

However, you posed the scenario where both Panda AND Belt were signed to 5/90 contracts. Fine. Given that scenario, Belt would HAVE to be moved to LF so Posey could take a corner and Susac takes the dish. However, that then blocks Mac, and I am not sure that is desirable either.

Good problems to have, for sure.

I don't think Belt gets 5/90, not entering arb. More like what Panda got 3/20 or 4/30. You're probably right that one has to go, unless they can trade Pence. Five players, four positions. Good dilemma for sure.

 

[calsnowskier]

I misread your scenario post as both being signed to Pence-money. It doesn't really change my conclusion, but it was a misread.

I do not think that the $$ behind keeping/dumping any of these players will be the reason they stay/go. It will be purely based on, as you said, 4 players, 3 positions.

 

[calsnowskier]

A bunch of organizational cuts over the last couple days. Nothing Earth-shattering, but a few interesting names...

Ryan Cavan
Shayne Houck
Joseph Rapp
Cristian Otero
Jean Delgado
Christian Diaz

 

[tzill]

A bunch of organizational cuts over the last couple days. Nothing Earth-shattering, but a few interesting names...

Ryan Cavan
Shayne Houck
Joseph Rapp
Cristian Otero
Jean Delgado
Christian Diaz

and Teahen, IIRC.

 

[calsnowskier]

and Teahen, IIRC.

Yes. I did not include him since he is not a home grown product. I had no connection to him.

Casey Weathers, the #8 overall pick in the '07 draft was also cut.

 

[SFGRTB]

Hembree cut. Wow. Team said they wanted him to work on his off-speed stuff more.

He was cut along with Dunning, Cordier, Bochy, Minicozzi, Quiroz, Reifer (lol).

This leaves Kontos, Machi, Runzler, sleeper J.C. Gutierrez (though he didn't help his case today) and Derek Law competing for 2 spots. This, to me, says a lot about how the Giants feel about Law. He's the only guy with no big-league experience left. He looked great on Friday night. This kid might have a legit shot.

Petit and Huff are battling for the 3rd, long relief spot. Both immensely helped their cause on Friday.

There's still a lot of competition going on. Hope to see more Law tomorrow.

 

[SFGRTB]

Minor league rosters are beginning to be announced. I'll post them as they are released. Note that these are opening day rosters, many guys start in different minor league locations but are quickly shifted for a variety of reasons, usually due to injury or weather.

2014 San Jose Giants Opening Day Roster:

Starting Pitchers:

Chris Stratton
Kendry Flores
Martin Agosta
Joan Gregorio
Pat Young
Joe Biagini

Bullpen:

Stephen Johnson-CL
Tyler Mizenko-CL
Steven Okert
Mason McVay
Ryan Bradley
Ian Gardeck
Jeff Soptic

Position Players (guys with * indicate likely regulars)

C Jesus Navarro
C Ben Turner*
2B Trevor Brown*
3B Mitch Delfino*
IF Blake Miller
2B/SS Rando Moreno*
1B/OF Brian Ragira*
SS Alberto Robles
IF Ydwin Villegas
DH Mac Williamson*
OF Elliott Blair*
OF Jesus Galindo*
OF Charles Jones*
OF Chris Lofton

Biggest surprise is obviously Mac Williamson. He is the Giants biggest bat in the minors and had a great year in SJ last year, so you may be wondering why he is repeating SJ for now. Well, I don't know for sure, but my guess is that he is nursing an injury and isn't ready to play in the field just yet. In the Eastern league AA, there is no DH, so to get Mac his AB's the Giants are keeping him in SJ until he's healthy.

The big-4 from Augusta's rotation last year all move up a level. There was some talk that the Giants were going to aggressively promote Stratton and/or Flores all the way to AA, but they decided to stay conservative on both. FWIW, Flores is my candidate to become this years Edwin Escobar. I think he'll be in AA at some point.

The "dog-pound" bullpen group from last year are all moving onto AA, but that bring in a who new group of intriguing arm. Yes, there are 2 closers listed. They shared the job last year and it's expected to continue into this year, until someone sets themselves apart. Stephen Johnson is basically a hard-throwing Sergio Romo, he has the frisbee east-west slider and a high-90s fastball, while Mizenko is a true sinker-baller, slider combo. Okert and McVay are 2 important lefties (and huge in size) who have ML potential.

On the hitters, look out for Charles Jones and Brian Ragira. Jones is a breakthrough candidate and Ragira is a college bat from last years draft.

 

[SFGRTB]

2014 Fresno Grizzlies Opening Day Roster (AAA):

Starting Pitchers:

Edwin Escobar
Mike Kickham
Chris Heston
Mitch Lively
Dontrelle Willis

Bullpen:

Heath Hembree-CL
Eric Cordier
Jake Dunning
George Kontos
Dan Runzler
Brett Bochy
Rafiel Dolis
Jason Berken
Mason Tobin
Adam Reifer

Position Players:

C-Andrew Susac*
1B-Mark Minicozzi*
2B-Joe Panik*
3B-Adam Duvall*
SS-Tony Abreu*
OF-Gary Brown*
OF-Darren Ford*
OF-Roger Kieschnick*

C-Tyler LaTorre
C-Guillermo Quiroz
1B/3B/OF-Chris Dominguez

Tyler Colvin and either J.C. Gutierrez or Derek Law are expected to also join. Nick Noonan is currently injured, but will join team in when healthy. Angel Villalona seems to have been DFA'd, to make room for Law/Gutierrez. Guess that's the end of that story, too bad. I had high hopes for the kid before the whole murder trial.

Escobar is the headliner among the pitchers. There are many familiar faces, including the Giants own project in Willis. Yes that's the same former CY Young winner. There's also plenty of bullpen depth down there. Familiar faces who we all though would move on are actually back, including Darren Ford, Dan Runzler and Chris Heston.

This is actually one of the stronger Fresno teams we've had in awhile. Bullpen should be lock-down and the offense should be fun to watch. Big years for Gary Brown and Joe Panik. Andrew Susac looks primed for a big year.

 

[SFGRTB]

2014 Richmond Flying Squirrels Opening Day Roster (AA):

Starting Pitchers:

Kyle Crick
Clayton Blackbrun
Adalberto Mejia
Ty Blach
Jack Snodgrass

Bullpen (dog-pound):

Cody Hall-CL
Josh Osich
Bryce Bandilla
Jose Casilla
Edwin Quirarte
Phil McCormick
Austin Fleet
Kelvin Marte

Position Players:

C-Jeff Arnold*
1B-Angel Villalona*
2B-Kelby Thomlinson*
3B-Ricky Oropesa*
SS-Matt Duffy*
OF-Brett Krill*
OF-Ryan Lollis*
OF-Jarrett Parker*

C-Eliezer Zambrano
C/1B/3B/OF-Myles Schroder
IF-Mario Lisson
IF-Skyler Stormsmoe
OF-Tyler Graham

Much like most of the Giants minor league rosters, this is all about pitching. The starting rotation is the best I've seen for our minor leagues, and the bullpen is full of hard-throwers on the left and right side. We could potentially see 8 of these guys make an impact at the ML level within the next 2-3 years. If the Giants need help at the ML level, there's a lot of trade bait as well.

I guess I lied about Villalona, he's listed on the AA roster. I suspect that he'll still be DFA'd though, and Krill or Schroder will move to 1B, or if the Oropesa 3B experiment doesn't work out he'll move back to 1B and Schroder will move to 3B. When Mac Williamson his healthy enough to play the field, he'll be promoted to AA and Jarrett Parker will likely move on to AAA.

Matt Duffy is the guy to watch in the field here. He is among the best defenders in the org, which says a lot given Crawford's and Adrianza's presence, and he brings the bat along with him. Richmond will be a huge test for him, if he holds his own with the bat, he could jump up many prospect lists. I like this kid.

 

[SFGRTB]

2014 Augusta GreenJackets Opening Day Roster (Low-A):

Starting Pitchers:

Keury Mella
Chase Johnson
Luis Ysla
Nick Vander Tuig
DJ Snelten

Bullpen:

Daniel Slania-CL
Ray Black-CL
Raymundo Montero-CL
Luis Castillo
Christian Jones
Steve Messner
Tyler Rogers
Carlos Alvarado
Carlos Diaz
Jake Smith

Position Players:

C-Ty Ross
1B-Ryan Tuntland
2B-Brandon Bender
3B-Ryder Jones
SS-Christian Arroyo
OF-Rafael Rodriguez
OF-Randy Ortiz
OF-Tyler Horan
DH-Leo Rojas

C-Gabriel Cornier
C-Eric Sim
IF-Matt Chavez
OF-Shawn Payne
OF-Christian Paulino

I will be watching this pitching staff closely. I'm most excited about Keury Mella, who already has developed 3 average or above pitches led by his big-time fastball, and great command for his age. He's also physically gifted, perfect size for an innings-eating starter. I think he could shoot up prospect lists this year now that he is playing a full-season. Giants weren't sure if they wanted to start him in a full season yet, or wait another year. They decided to go with the former. Ysla is a hard-throwing lefty who will begin his first season in the States. Vander Tuig and Snelten are 2 college arms, with basically the same arsenal from opposite sides.

Daniel Slania is a former college closer, throws a hard fastball/slider combo. Ray Black is a good story. He had shoulder surgery soon after he signed with the Giants in 2011 and is finally making his way back to pitching. The doctors have him less than a 33% chance of ever pitching again, but he reported throwing 100 mph this spring in minor league camp. He's one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the system.

Rafael Rodriguez has to start showing something. The Dominican prospect was given the biggest international bonus as the time, and this will be his 3rd time in Augusta. He's still very young though, so don't write him off yet. Leo Rojas is all about the bat and should put up some big offensive numbers.

Then there's the left-side of the future in Christian Arroyo and Ryder Jones. The Giants are going to let these guys grow together, groom them together. Hopefully they like each other because the F.O. is really high on these guys (by all accounts, they seem to be hitting it off). I'm really excited for Arroyo, I think this kid could be one of the greats of next Giants era.

 

[SFGRTB]

And here is a list of injured players with their expected destinations:

Pitchers:

Shane Loux (Fresno)
Sandy Rosario (Fresno)
Hunter Strickland (Fresno)
Michael Broadway (Richmond/Fresno)
Jacob Dunnington (San Jose/Richmond)
Brandon Farley (San Jose)
Chris Johnson (San Jose)
Eduardo Encinosa (Augusta)
Nick Jones (Augusta)
Ariel Hernandez (AZL/Salem-Keizer)
Garrett Hughes (AZL/ Salem-Keizer)
Reyes Moronta (AZL/Salem-Keizer)

Position Players:

OF-Javier Herrera (Fresno)
IF-Nick Noonan (Fresno)
OF-Devin Harris (Richmond)
IF-Jeremy Sy (San Jose)
C-Drew Stiner (AZL/Salem-Keizer)
IF-Nathanael Javier (AZL/Salem-Keizer)

 

[tzill]

2014 Fresno Grizzlies Opening Day Roster (AAA):

Starting Pitchers:

Edwin Escobar
Mike Kickham
Chris Heston
Mitch Lively
Dontrelle Willis

Bullpen:

Heath Hembree-CL
Eric Cordier
Jake Dunning
George Kontos
Dan Runzler
Brett Bochy
Rafiel Dolis
Jason Berken
Mason Tobin
Adam Reifer

Position Players:

C-Andrew Susac*
1B-Mark Minicozzi*
2B-Joe Panik*
3B-Adam Duvall*
SS-Tony Abreu*
OF-Gary Brown*
OF-Darren Ford*
OF-Roger Kieschnick*

C-Tyler LaTorre
C-Guillermo Quiroz
1B/3B/OF-Chris Dominguez

Tyler Colvin and either J.C. Gutierrez or Derek Law are expected to also join. Nick Noonan is currently injured, but will join team in when healthy. Angel Villalona seems to have been DFA'd, to make room for Law/Gutierrez. Guess that's the end of that story, too bad. I had high hopes for the kid before the whole murder trial.

Escobar is the headliner among the pitchers. There are many familiar faces, including the Giants own project in Willis. Yes that's the same former CY Young winner. There's also plenty of bullpen depth down there. Familiar faces who we all though would move on are actually back, including Darren Ford, Dan Runzler and Chris Heston.

This is actually one of the stronger Fresno teams we've had in awhile. Bullpen should be lock-down and the offense should be fun to watch. Big years for Gary Brown and Joe Panik. Andrew Susac looks primed for a big year.

Colvin yes; Gutierrez makes the big club; Law will go to Richmond where he can get innings. With Hembree and Cordier in Fresno that makes sense.

Oh, and Kiesh has been DFA'd

 

[tzill]

2014 Richmond Flying Squirrels Opening Day Roster (AA):

Starting Pitchers:

Kyle Crick
Clayton Blackbrun
Adalberto Mejia
Ty Blach
Jack Snodgrass

Bullpen (dog-pound):

Cody Hall-CL
Josh Osich
Bryce Bandilla
Jose Casilla
Edwin Quirarte
Phil McCormick
Austin Fleet
Kelvin Marte

Position Players:

C-Jeff Arnold*
1B-Angel Villalona*
2B-Kelby Thomlinson*
3B-Ricky Oropesa*
SS-Matt Duffy*
OF-Brett Krill*
OF-Ryan Lollis*
OF-Jarrett Parker*

C-Eliezer Zambrano
C/1B/3B/OF-Myles Schroder
IF-Mario Lisson
IF-Skyler Stormsmoe
OF-Tyler Graham

Much like most of the Giants minor league rosters, this is all about pitching. The starting rotation is the best I've seen for our minor leagues, and the bullpen is full of hard-throwers on the left and right side. We could potentially see 8 of these guys make an impact at the ML level within the next 2-3 years. If the Giants need help at the ML level, there's a lot of trade bait as well.

I guess I lied about Villalona, he's listed on the AA roster. I suspect that he'll still be DFA'd though, and Krill or Schroder will move to 1B, or if the Oropesa 3B experiment doesn't work out he'll move back to 1B and Schroder will move to 3B. When Mac Williamson his healthy enough to play the field, he'll be promoted to AA and Jarrett Parker will likely move on to AAA.

Matt Duffy is the guy to watch in the field here. He is among the best defenders in the org, which says a lot given Crawford's and Adrianza's presence, and he brings the bat along with him. Richmond will be a huge test for him, if he holds his own with the bat, he could jump up many prospect lists. I like this kid.

I think Law will be the closer to start the season. But this is an AWESOME group of pitchers even without him.

AnVil not DFA'd. Thanks for the heads up on Duffy.

 

[calsnowskier]

All 4 teams actually look real good. I think the exciting team this year may be Augusta. That offense looks exciting.

 

[SFGRTB]

Colvin yes; Gutierrez makes the big club; Law will go to Richmond where he can get innings. With Hembree and Cordier in Fresno that makes sense.

Oh, and Kiesh has been DFA'd

I think Law will be the closer to start the season. But this is an AWESOME group of pitchers even without him.

AnVil not DFA'd. Thanks for the heads up on Duffy.

I probably should have just waited until the final decisions were announced at the ML level before posting these. In any case, Law will certainly be the closer for Richmond for the reasons you said, there just aren't as many innings in AAA for him. Boy, Cordier to Hembree in AAA, and Hall to Law in AA. Those are some power arms! Giants are much more equipped this year in terms of pitching depth.

Kiesch will probably clear waivers so, if he accepts his assignment, he should still be back with us. Colvin has an out-clause (Marco can probably correct me on the right terminology) that he has until Monday to decide if he wants to stick with the Giants in AAA or become a FA. I'd say there's a good bet he sticks with us too.

All 4 teams actually look real good. I think the exciting team this year may be Augusta. That offense looks exciting.

I'm really excited for the system this year. There aren't many (if any) superstar-potentials, but there is so much depth and future major leaguers. Giants have drafted many "high-floor" guys in recent years, and dug deep into the international market to find the "higher-ceiling" guys.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Great work sf giants r the best!