2013 Top Prospects

[calsnowskier]

They aren't all that different, one thing I want to see is Hall in AAA. Hall has been more susceptible to the long-ball to this point compared to Hembree. Hembree was on fire before he hit AAA, but then his command was exposed a bit. I want to see how Hall fairs first.

Plus, looks like Hembree has figured it out after his initial struggles in Fresno. He's been on a roll lately and his command has been GREAT this year. He's just been exposed by a few bad outings and the homers.

From what I have heard, The Giants told him to specifically work on his secondary stuff at the beginning of the season. That explains his ROUGH start, and his very strong second half. I did not see the game yesterday, but from what I understand, his accuracy was pin-point, and his slider was solid, even if it wasn't elite.

If he has pin-point control, understands to take a few miles off his FB when he needs to, and then brings an average to slightly above average change and slider, I think he will be a solid late-inning reliever for years.

 

[SFGRTB]

From what I have heard, The Giants told him to specifically work on his secondary stuff at the beginning of the season. That explains his ROUGH start, and his very strong second half. I did not see the game yesterday, but from what I understand, his accuracy was pin-point, and his slider was solid, even if it wasn't elite.

If he has pin-point control, understands to take a few miles off his FB when he needs to, and then brings an average to slightly above average change and slider, I think he will be a solid late-inning reliever for years.

He looked real good last night, corner command with the fastball (sat around 92-93 mph, but guys were swinging right through it) and a sharp bite to the slider. I'm not comparing him to the guy, but with the same numbers he did look a bit like Wilson out there, sans the beard. I think the radar was a bit cold though, because guys were really late on his fastball.

I have high hopes for both kids.

 

[calsnowskier]

He looked real good last night, corner command with the fastball (sat around 92-93 mph, but guys were swinging right through it) and a sharp bite to the slider. I'm not comparing him to the guy, but with the same numbers he did look a bit like Wilson out there, sans the beard. I think the radar was a bit cold though, because guys were really late on his fastball.

I have high hopes for both kids.

Was Weez's slider ++ when he came up, or did he developed it?

 

[SFGRTB]

Was Weez's slider ++ when he came up, or did he developed it?

I don't think it was ++, his fastball was usually enough it hitting triple digits more often when he first came up. IIRC he relied more on a cutter/slider hybrid in 2008/09, but developed more of a true slider by 2010 (like the one to Howard in the NLCS).

 

[SFGRTB]

Was Weez's slider ++ when he came up, or did he developed it?

Contrary to my last post, I was watching some old video of Wilson and his slider looked pretty dang elite in 2008/09, but he did have the weird cutter/slider hybrid that sat around 92 mph. This video shows all 3, his hybrid is at the 25 second mark and his true slider is the last 10 seconds or so (best one is the last out). I think his slider got better by 2010 though, and he started throwing the cutter less, allowing more difference in speeds and breaks between his fastball and slider.

Video: Brian Wilson shuts down the Rangers bats in 2009 | MLB.com

(there's also a nice play from "skinny" Pablo the first 5 seconds)

 

[BigDDude]

Here is a story about a young kid the Giants just brought up. I thought I would share here, as he has a good story, and seems like an easy guy to root for going forward. It is a long read, so be forewarned, and, is the reason for doing this link style.

Monell family dream finally comes true at AT&T Park | CSN Bay Area


Edit: BDD, I moved the post into this thread since it was pertaining to a prospect specifically instead of the roster movements. -- cal

 

[tzill]

A report on the Susser from the AFL:

Andrew Susac was selected by the Giants in the second round of the amateur draft in 2011 and could potentially be Buster Posey’s catching replacement if and when Posey finally moves out of the squat. He spent 2013 in Richmond honing his skills and putting up a .256 BA, .362 OBP and .820 OPS. While his numbers have been decent, his biggest struggle has been showing consistency throughout the season. The Fall League seems to be serving Susac well as he is leading the league in batting average with .440 BA and 1.143 OPS through nine games. Susac is definitely one to watch, especially since his plate approach and short swing suggest he could be someone who hits for average if he can develop some consistency during his time in the minors.

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's a great report on Kyle Crick, and a few other highlights from the farm:

Giants hope Crick is star in the making - SFGate


Giants aren't afraid to compare Crick to Cain at the same age. They believe that Crick has a better fastball at this stage than what Cain had, but Crick's command isn't where Cain's was.

Besides the highlight from Crick, what I'm taking out of this article is that the Giants believe they quietly have some of the better arms in the lower minors around baseball, and they have very high hopes for them. This quote also strikes me a bit:

"We've got some guys who can move fast. I'm a big believer, if you're a strike-thrower and you're confident in your ability to use all your pitches, you might not have to pitch in Triple-A."

We might be seeing Escobar very soon, and he may even have a (very) long shot at making some noise in the Spring. They've proven this with Bumgarner, Cain, Romo.... and the guys they didn't promote right away like Hembree and Kickham.

 

[SFGRTB]

Here are some short reports from AZ camp from Andrew Susac and Giants minor league pitching coordinator Bert Bradley

-- RH Kyle Crick, 20 (1.57 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, 68 2/3 IP, 39 walks, 95 strikeouts): Explosive stuff. Sits at 95 mph but can throw 96-98. Solid changeup, OK slider, better curveball. Biggest issues are control and mechanics. Pitches to an area of the plate rather than a finite location. Innings limited by an oblique injury.

"He's probably got a better fastball than Matt (Cain) had when he made it to the big leagues. But Matt, when he started pitching down and using his two-seam more, that quickened his development and rise to the big leagues." - BB

-- LH Edwin Escobar, 21 (2.80 ERA, 1.104 WHIP, 128 2/3 IP, 30 walks, 146 strikeouts): Fastball at 92-93 but reaches 95. Changeup is his second-best pitch and breaking ball, more of a slurve, has improved after early struggles. Keeps the ball down and attracts a lot of defensive swings.

"He's got that good swing-and-miss fast ball, which astonishes me because it's not the 98-99 fastball. It's 90 to 94 and pretty straight, but he knows how to pitch with it and mix speeds with it." - AS

-- RH Clayton Blackburn, 20 (3.65 ERA, 1.098 WHIP, 133 IP, 35 walks, 138 strikeouts): Throws 92-93 with good command. Can throw four pitches for strikes. Organization wants him to work on his body, which is stocky, even if he is athletic for his size.

"He kind of reminds me of Rick Reuschel, body type and stuff-wise." - BB

-- LH Ty Blach, 23 (2.90 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, 130 1/3 IP, 18 walks, 117 strikeouts): A perfectionist in terms of location and pitchability. Locates well. Changes speeds and pitches in extremely well. Fastball in low 90s. Has changeup, cutter and big curve. Drafted at 21 from Creighton, his first pro season was 2013.

"He's more of a Tom Glavine-type guy. He can make up a pitch when he needs to." - BB

-- LH Adalberto Mejia, 20 (3.31 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, 87 IP, 23 walks, 89 strikeouts): Tall lefty with good hard sink in 93-94 mph fastball, with a slider and changeup. Missed time with an oblique injury in 2013.

"I love this kid. He had a good year in San Jose. It's just a matter of command with him and staying mechanically sound coming to the plate." - BB

 

[MarcoPolo]

Here's a great report on Kyle Crick, and a few other highlights from the farm:

Giants hope Crick is star in the making - SFGate


Giants aren't afraid to compare Crick to Cain at the same age. They believe that Crick has a better fastball at this stage than what Cain had, but Crick's command isn't where Cain's was.

Great article, but it really focuses on his fastball. In the bigs, the good hitters can get around on a fastball, even at 97. You have to have good secondary pitches, and good command. Years ago in SJ I saw Cain pitch what I thought until last year was his best game to date (before his perfect game). He had been "held back" in A to work on his changeup, even though he was blowing batters away (my opinion). I saw the game where it 'clicked'. The batters had NO IDEA what he was going to throw; they either were very late on his fastball or almost screwed themselves into the ground on his changeup. 7 IP, 2 runners (one on a hit batter), no runs, nobody got to 2nd, 14 Ks. He was promoted to AA within 2 weeks.

Besides the highlight from Crick, what I'm taking out of this article is that the Giants believe they quietly have some of the better arms in the lower minors around baseball, and they have very high hopes for them.

We might be seeing Escobar very soon, and he may even have a (very) long shot at making some noise in the Spring. They've proven this with Bumgarner, Cain, Romo.... and the guys they didn't promote right away like Hembree and Kickham.

Cain was NOT rushed through the minors, contrary to what many people think. Also, none of MadBum, Romo, or Cain were first called up right out of spring training. MadBum came through the minors very quickly, but Romo didn't.

I will say that I saw some quality arms pitching in San Jose this past season. Hopefully at least 2 of them will be in the majors as stars 2 years from now.

 

[SFGRTB]

Great article, but it really focuses on his fastball. In the bigs, the good hitters can get around on a fastball, even at 97. You have to have good secondary pitches, and good command. Years ago in SJ I saw Cain pitch what I thought until last year was his best game to date (before his perfect game). He had been "held back" in A to work on his changeup, even though he was blowing batters away (my opinion). I saw the game where it 'clicked'. The batters had NO IDEA what he was going to throw; they either were very late on his fastball or almost screwed themselves into the ground on his changeup. 7 IP, 2 runners (one on a hit batter), no runs, nobody got to 2nd, 14 Ks. He was promoted to AA within 2 weeks.



Cain was NOT rushed through the minors, contrary to what many people think. Also, none of MadBum, Romo, or Cain were first called up right out of spring training. MadBum came through the minors very quickly, but Romo didn't.

I will say that I saw some quality arms pitching in San Jose this past season. Hopefully at least 2 of them will be in the majors as stars 2 years from now.

Agreed. Crick needs to develop his secondary pitches. At this point in his career, (I believe) the team is concerned about cleaning up his mechanics, getting him to throw strikes and keeping him on the field. I believe that's why they are sending him to the Fall League, hoping to accelerate that process so he doesn't need to spend another full year in SJ. He's likely to start the year there, but (like you said with Cain) mainly to work on his secondary pitches. If he can first stay on the field and clean up his mechanics now in the Fall League and in the offseason, then dominate SJ as a pitcher (not a fast-pitch machine), he could end-up seeing AA late in next season.

I've always had this perception Cain flew through the minors, he only pitched 2 full seasons (2004/2005), pitched after he signed in 2002 and pitched a half season in 2003, totaling 397 innings. That's pretty decent, for a high school arm. Bumgarner pitched 355 innings over 2+ years, though I had totally forgotten he pitched in Fresno, and how bad he looked coming out of Spring Training back in 2010. Romo fit the bill of "if they are throwing strikes and using all their pitches, they don't need AAA" pitcher. He came straight from AA. Though I definitely should have phrased my original statement to say those guys showed that if you show you can throw strikes and use your secondary pitches, you may not even need AAA (granted, I still forgot Bum even pitched there).

There is a lot of talent down there, I'm excited to start seeing who can set themselves apart.

 

[MarcoPolo]

There is a lot of talent down there, I'm excited to start seeing who can set themselves apart.

I don't normally get too excited about prospects in A-ball. So often they just can't make the jump to the higher levels. (Anybody remember Guillermo Rodriguez, the catcher who shined in San Jose, but could never succeed at any higher level?)

BUT. This year San Jose had a *full handfull* of great starting pitching this year, most of them young (20-21, only one 22) - not a case of 24-25 year-olds dominating the league. I have great hope that next season, most of them will also have success in Richmond. I have always viewed AA as the level where the men are separated from the boys, as guys fail when pitted against the better talent in AA. They are young enough that they don't HAVE to be rushed, can spend an extra 3 months or a full season at a level to improve a key talent, and still be in the majors 3 years from now (if not sooner).

On a related note, I hope that Surkamp will shine in Fresno for the first 3 months of 2014 and that we'll see him in July in SF.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I've always had this perception Cain flew through the minors, he only pitched 2 full seasons (2004/2005), pitched after he signed in 2002 and pitched a half season in 2003, totaling 397 innings. That's pretty decent, for a high school arm.

I considered Cain had a regular "top prospect" path through the minors. A few innings the year he signed, he spent all of the next with Hagerstown (low A), next season he split almost evenly between A+ & AA, and then an almost full season with Fresno before being called up at the end of August. (I was at his first home win in '05 {i.e., of his career} - what a fantastic game. He walked off the mound after the 8th to a standing ovation, and I turned to my brother and said "So, do you think Alou will let him come back out in the 9th?" He sure did, and got another standing ovation after the 9th.)

But I forgot he went on the DL when with the Suns, and lost half a season. He was pitching well enough that he might have been promoted to SJ that year if he hadn't gone on the DL.

 

[tzill]

I don't normally get too excited about prospects in A-ball. So often they just can't make the jump to the higher levels. (Anybody remember Guillermo Rodriguez, the catcher who shined in San Jose, but could never succeed at any higher level?)

BUT. This year San Jose had a *full handfull* of great starting pitching this year, most of them young (20-21, only one 22) - not a case of 24-25 year-olds dominating the league. I have great hope that next season, most of them will also have success in Richmond. I have always viewed AA as the level where the men are separated from the boys, as guys fail when pitted against the better talent in AA. They are young enough that they don't HAVE to be rushed, can spend an extra 3 months or a full season at a level to improve a key talent, and still be in the majors 3 years from now (if not sooner).

On a related note, I hope that Surkamp will shine in Fresno for the first 3 months of 2014 and that we'll see him in July in SF.

I agree. Sheer numbers of talent at San Jose kinda guarantees a couple of ML arms. I think Blach, Blackburn, Crick, and Mejia all were top 20 in the league last year. Most/all should be in Richmond next year, no? Gloor, Snodgrass, Westcott all move up to Fresno to make room and Escobar stays in Richmond to start the year is my guess. I think Richmond will have a 6 man rotation of Escobar, Rogers, Blach, Blackburn, Crick, Mejia.

2015 ought to be fun. Many live arms, few spots on the ML roster.

 

[SFGRTB]

I don't normally get too excited about prospects in A-ball. So often they just can't make the jump to the higher levels. (Anybody remember Guillermo Rodriguez, the catcher who shined in San Jose, but could never succeed at any higher level?)

BUT. This year San Jose had a *full handfull* of great starting pitching this year, most of them young (20-21, only one 22) - not a case of 24-25 year-olds dominating the league. I have great hope that next season, most of them will also have success in Richmond. I have always viewed AA as the level where the men are separated from the boys, as guys fail when pitted against the better talent in AA. They are young enough that they don't HAVE to be rushed, can spend an extra 3 months or a full season at a level to improve a key talent, and still be in the majors 3 years from now (if not sooner).

On a related note, I hope that Surkamp will shine in Fresno for the first 3 months of 2014 and that we'll see him in July in SF.

A+ is where guys earn their attention, AA is where guys earn their stripes. We've seen many players fizzle-out in AA, but if they manage to make it through, that's what separates the big-leaguers from the career minor-leaguers. Susac passed that test this year, many others faded. Panik may need to repeat for a few months. On that note, I am also watching Mac Williamson very closely this upcoming season. He'll be promoted to Richmond and could be looking at that LF job by 2016, but this next season is VERY important for him.

Surkamp is the forgotten man, I see some Noah Lowry in him. I too hope he comes back at full-strength, we need some depth down there.

 

[SFGRTB]

I agree. Sheer numbers of talent at San Jose kinda guarantees a couple of ML arms. I think Blach, Blackburn, Crick, and Mejia all were top 20 in the league last year. Most/all should be in Richmond next year, no? Gloor, Snodgrass, Westcott all move up to Fresno to make room and Escobar stays in Richmond to start the year is my guess. I think Richmond will have a 6 man rotation of Escobar, Rogers, Blach, Blackburn, Crick, Mejia.

2015 ought to be fun. Many live arms, few spots on the ML roster.

All those guys you mentioned, and Escobar, were all post-season top-20 prospects for the Cal-league (according to Baseball-America), along with Mac Williamson.

I would say it's a lock Blach and Escobar (since he's already there) will start in AA. It's pretty likely Blackburn and Mejia will too, but Mejia did only make 16 starts there last year. Crick will probably start in SJ, but could be on the first bus to Richmond.

If I had to guess, I would say Blach/Escobar/Blackburn/Kelvin Marte(depth)/Taylor Rogers would be in Richmond and Crick/Stratton/Mejia/Agosta/Kendry Flores in San Jose.

And we haven't even talked about some of the relief arms we have along with all these starters. Hall, Marlowe, Law, Osich, Okert, Bandilla, Casilla...

 

[VASFfan]

I agree. Sheer numbers of talent at San Jose kinda guarantees a couple of ML arms. I think Blach, Blackburn, Crick, and Mejia all were top 20 in the league last year. Most/all should be in Richmond next year, no? Gloor, Snodgrass, Westcott all move up to Fresno to make room and Escobar stays in Richmond to start the year is my guess. I think Richmond will have a 6 man rotation of Escobar, Rogers, Blach, Blackburn, Crick, Mejia.

2015 ought to be fun. Many live arms, few spots on the ML roster.

Minor detail: Westcott was apparently released a week or two ago.

 

[VASFfan]

All those guys you mentioned, and Escobar, were all post-season top-20 prospects for the Cal-league (according to Baseball-America), along with Mac Williamson.

I would say it's a lock Blach and Escobar (since he's already there) will start in AA. It's pretty likely Blackburn and Mejia will too, but Mejia did only make 16 starts there last year. Crick will probably start in SJ, but could be on the first bus to Richmond.

If I had to guess, I would say Blach/Escobar/Blackburn/Kelvin Marte(depth)/Taylor Rogers would be in Richmond and Crick/Stratton/Mejia/Agosta/Kendry Flores in San Jose.

And we haven't even talked about some of the relief arms we have along with all these starters. Hall, Marlowe, Law, Osich, Okert, Bandilla, Casilla...

Is Rogers merely a placeholder until Crick or Mejia are ready to move up? Because otherwise, unless we're just trying to be generous with the rest of the league and give them someone they can light up on a regular basis to pump up their stats, there HAS to be a better option.

If Mejia and Crick get held back for a while, hard to argue with your San Jose scenario. But I would think someone like Gregorio might get some consideration, though he maybe didn't pitch enough at Augusta to really warrant jumping up to San Jose yet. He seems to have an interesting arm, though.

 

[tzill]

Minor detail: Westcott was apparently released a week or two ago.

Really? Haven't seen that. Where'd you find it?

 

[tzill]

Is Rogers merely a placeholder until Crick or Mejia are ready to move up? Because otherwise, unless we're just trying to be generous with the rest of the league and give them someone they can light up on a regular basis to pump up their stats, there HAS to be a better option.

If Mejia and Crick get held back for a while, hard to argue with your San Jose scenario. But I would think someone like Gregorio might get some consideration, though he maybe didn't pitch enough at Augusta to really warrant jumping up to San Jose yet. He seems to have an interesting arm, though.

Yeah, Rogers might be about done as a prospect.