POLL #19 Michigan at #2 Penn State - who wins?

[fishinabarrel]

I think it will be an interesting game. From the sounds of it — PSU’s strength on defense is stopping the pass. UM can’t pass anyways, so it doesn’t matter. UM’s strength on defense is the DL, PSU’s weakness is the OL. So UM should be able to make life difficult on PSU’s offense.

I have a feeling we will see UM run, run and run some more. When they pass, I think it will be quick hitters to the TE’s with the occasional overthrow or underthrow by O’Korn on a deep ball (lord knows he isn’t completing one of them).

I was dreading this game until I read up on PSU’s OL issues. If UM can do what they’ve done to Barkley the last two years and limit his yards. I think it will be a good game. If he is able to break a few plays, it could get ugly though.

I think it is a tight game in the first half. Whether or not it gets broken open in the 2nd will depend on Michigan's offense being able to give its defense some breaks which I don't think happens. Ends up a two score game

 

[Rolltide94]

Penn State by 10, hopefully more. Our defense will be playing lights out; they aren't over what happened last season. Oline is the main concern, and FG issues.

The atmosphere is going to be fucking insane and I can't wait.

Should be a good one, I was lucky enough to be at the 2005 White Out vs Ohio State...it was insane. It was in my top 5 games I have been to.

 

[PEOPLESCHICKEN]

Why do you think Higdon is a mediocre RB? He has averaged almost 6 ypc over the last two seasons on almost 150 carries.

I think he is the toughest RB on the team and runs the hardest.

He certainly may be the toughest, but with this current group that isn't much to brag about. He played in 3 games as a Freshman, you can throw that out. He is just about on the same pace he was last year mainly through a big boost statistically from the Indiana game, but that isn't saying much either. Presently, he is the football equivalent to an innings eater. He can rack up yards but can only get them within the room created for him by the OL. He is not a player who can carry it 20-25 times and lock down a game, nor does he have the ability to make plays in space.

 

[navamind]

He certainly may be the toughest, but with this current group that isn't much to brag about. He played in 3 games as a Freshman, you can throw that out. He is just about on the same pace he was last year mainly through a big boost statistically from the Indiana game, but that isn't saying much either. Presently, he is the football equivalent to an innings eater. He can rack up yards but can only get them within the room created for him by the OL. He is not a player who can carry it 20-25 times and lock down a game, nor does he have the ability to make plays in space.

He had 8.0 YPC against a pretty decent Indiana defense.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2017 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

 

[Red_Alert]

Looked a bit harder and changed my vote from Penn St <10 to Penn St by 10-19.

The Pitt game is like any rivalry where you can throw out the record books. Penn St still won by 19.

I then looked at their close call @ Iowa. It wasn't near as close as the scoreboard indicated. Iowa played their typical game where they'll slow roll you to sleep and hope you beat yourself with penalties and turnovers. It works to an extent and almost worked that night.
Total Yds: Penn St (579) Iowa (273)
Rushing: Penn St (295) Iowa (82)
Passing: Penn St (284) Iowa (191)
Penalties: Penn St (8 for 90yds) Iowa (3 for 25yds)
Turnovers: Penn St (2) Iowa (1)

Penn St has beaten all the scrubs like a top 5 team should.

Michigan's defense looks good on paper, but other than (2-4) Air Force (rushing), Michigan hasn't played an offense with a statistical pulse. Michigan only beat AF by 16 in Ann Arbor. AF had 168 yds rushing.

Being how the game is in Happy Valley, at night, I don't think Harbaugh is smart enough to slow roll them to give Michigan a chance late, a la the coy Ferentz.

Penn St moves to (7-0) handily. IMO

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I think it is a tight game in the first half. Whether or not it gets broken open in the 2nd will depend on Michigan's offense being able to give its defense some breaks which I don't think happens. Ends up a two score game

I think the opposite. I think it will be weathering the early storm in the first half as PSU and their fans will be pumped up. If UM is able to keep it close in the first half, it will go down to the wire.

If PSU comes out on fire, it could be ugly early and will be a long game for UM because they don’t have the offense to come back from double digit deficits.

 

[7Samurai13]

I think the opposite. I think it will be weathering the early storm in the first half as PSU and their fans will be pumped up. If UM is able to keep it close in the first half, it will go down to the wire.

If PSU comes out on fire, it could be ugly early and will be a long game for UM because they don’t have the offense to come back from double digit deficits.

That offensive line for Michigan is brutal and could get be tough at the end of the game because they are going to be grinder down.

Also Michigan rolling with such a short rotation on their DLine is going to have Barkley running through them late in the game like Indiana did.

 

[KingKoolKat75]

Should be a good one, I was lucky enough to be at the 2005 White Out vs Ohio State...it was insane. It was in my top 5 games I have been to.

Nice..how'd you end up at that game?

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Looked a bit harder and changed my vote from Penn St <10 to Penn St by 10-19.

The Pitt game is like any rivalry where you can throw out the record books. Penn St still won by 19.

I then looked at their close call @ Iowa. It wasn't near as close as the scoreboard indicated. Iowa played their typical game where they'll slow roll you to sleep and hope you beat yourself with penalties and turnovers. It works to an extent and almost worked that night.
Total Yds: Penn St (579) Iowa (273)
Rushing: Penn St (295) Iowa (82)
Passing: Penn St (284) Iowa (191)
Penalties: Penn St (8 for 90yds) Iowa (3 for 25yds)
Turnovers: Penn St (2) Iowa (1)

Penn St has beaten all the scrubs like a top 5 team should.

Michigan's defense looks good on paper, but other than (2-4) Air Force (rushing), Michigan hasn't played an offense with a statistical pulse. Michigan only beat AF by 16 in Ann Arbor. AF had 168 yds rushing.

Being how the game is in Happy Valley, at night, I don't think Harbaugh is smart enough to slow roll them to give Michigan a chance late, a la the coy Ferentz.

Penn St moves to (7-0) handily. IMO

They just did an article on one of the sites I go to. If I can remember which one I will post it. UM has held each opponent to their lowest yardage total on the season. If you take the UM game out for each team, their offensive rank goes up an average of 24 spots. And UM has held their opponents to 45% less than their average offensive output on the year.

While AF ran for 168 yards, they also ran the ball 50 times and only completed one pass all game and only threw it 9 Times.

And anyone who has watched UM knows there is no chance they try to win a shoot out with PSU, they don’t have the offense for it. I guarantee they try to take the air out of the ball and run over and over. When they pass it will be short routes to move the sticks and keep the clock running.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

That offensive line for Michigan is brutal and could get be tough at the end of the game because they are going to be grinder down.

Also Michigan rolling with such a short rotation on their DLine is going to have Barkley running through them late in the game like Indiana did.

Indiana had 30 carries for 80 yards and 50 of those yards came in the first drive of the 2nd half. Indiana’s biggest play on offense was the long special teams play. They only had like 260 yards of offense for the game.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

He certainly may be the toughest, but with this current group that isn't much to brag about. He played in 3 games as a Freshman, you can throw that out. He is just about on the same pace he was last year mainly through a big boost statistically from the Indiana game, but that isn't saying much either. Presently, he is the football equivalent to an innings eater. He can rack up yards but can only get them within the room created for him by the OL. He is not a player who can carry it 20-25 times and lock down a game, nor does he have the ability to make plays in space.

You do know it was the same Indiana that held Barkley to 56 yards on 20 carries, right?

And if he can only makes play the OL gives him, what do you call his OT run?

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

And before anyone starts saying I’m a homer or anything like that. If I had to pick who wins this game, I’d say Penn State.

I am just making a case that an upset wouldn’t surprise me, because after looking deeper at the two teams — UM’s biggest strength on defense is PSU’s biggest weakness. And PSU biggest strength on defense is defending the pass and UM cant pass against anyone anyways, so running the ball will be what they do the majority of the game.

I still think it will be extremely difficult for UM to pull off the upset, but with the strebgth’s and weaknesses of each team. It could happen and the game will probably be closer than some expect. Couple that with the fact UM has only lost one game by more than 5 points in the Harbaugh era. I can see it being a nail biter one way or the other.

 

[Across The Field]

And before anyone starts saying I’m a homer or anything like that. If I had to pick who wins this game, I’d say Penn State.

I am just making a case that an upset wouldn’t surprise me, because after looking deeper at the two teams — UM’s biggest strength on defense is PSU’s biggest weakness. And PSU biggest strength on defense is defending the pass and UM cant pass against anyone anyways, so running the ball will be what they do the majority of the game.

I still think it will be extremely difficult for UM to pull off the upset, but with the strebgth’s and weaknesses of each team. It could happen and the game will probably be closer than some expect. Couple that with the fact UM has only lost one game by more than 5 points in the Harbaugh era. I can see it being a nail biter one way or the other.

You're a homer.

 

[Red_Alert]

They just did an article on one of the sites I go to. If I can remember which one I will post it. UM has held each opponent to their lowest yardage total on the season. If you take the UM game out for each team, their offensive rank goes up an average of 24 spots. And UM has held their opponents to 45% less than their average offensive output on the year.

While AF ran for 168 yards, they also ran the ball 50 times and only completed one pass all game and only threw it 9 Times.

And anyone who has watched UM knows there is no chance they try to win a shoot out with PSU, they don’t have the offense for it. I guarantee they try to take the air out of the ball and run over and over. When they pass it will be short routes to move the sticks and keep the clock running.

LOL

Up 24 spots from what, 112th? Great, that puts them at 87th.

(2-4) AF averaged 3.4 ypc at Michigan. I used to have a coach who told us if you can get 3.4 ypc, you'll be in every game. 3.4 yds x 3 = 10.2 yds (move the chains).

Let's take this a step further...

Turnover Margin: Penn St (2) Michigan (95) Iowa (59)
Fewest Penalties per game: Penn St (8) Michigan (121) Iowa (35)
Fewest Penalty yds per game: Penn St (17) Michigan (118) Iowa (31)

Michigan is flat out undisciplined. They ain't gonna slow roll Penn St ( a la Ferentz) with those numbers. That lunatic Harbaugh will have the camera on him all night.

 

[Red_Alert]

"Up 24 spots" LMFAO

umgoblue.com be serving up some kool-aid to suckers.

 

[7Samurai13]

"Up 24 spots" LMFAO

umgoblue.com be serving up some kool-aid to suckers.

Mmmm tastes like cyanide.

 

[Red_Alert]

Indiana had 30 carries for 80 yards and 50 of those yards came in the first drive of the 2nd half. Indiana’s biggest play on offense was the long special teams play. They only had like 260 yards of offense for the game.

Michigan (27-20) in OT

Indiana rushing offense (93).
"Up 24 spots" = (69)

LOL keep going

 

[TexasExes98]

PSU 21
UM 14

 

[Red_Alert]

PSU 31
UM 13

 

[Red_Alert]