Chuck Pagano: AFC South Has 'Four Young, Legitimate Quarterbacks'

[MIKE75]

The three other teams in the AFC South spent the first two or three seasons of Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck's NFL career hoping they could have a quarterback capable of leading their teams to victories, too.

The Jaguars,Titans and Texans took note of the Colts’ success -- three straight playoff appearances and back-to-back division titles -- with Luck and have used each of the past three seasons to add what they hope will be their franchise quarterback to try to make sure Indianapolis doesn’t sit at the top of the division year after year. Luck was drafted in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft.

The Jaguars took Blake Bortles in the first round of the 2014 NFL draft,The next year the Titans took Marcus Mariota in the first round of the 2015 NFL draft and the next year after that the Texans signed Brock Osweiler away from Denver during free agency last month in March of 2016.

The belief from the four AFC South coaches is that each team has resolved their quarterback concerns. Each QB was taken in the first round of the draft except Osweiler who was drafted in the second round.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Count me as someone who's not at all sold on Brock being even a league average at any point in his career. Bortles and Mariota aren't there, but there's little reason to believe they have plateaued. Luck even being the most established has a lot of warts once you start looking under the hood and data.

 

[jarntt]

When looking at starters...Luck is a top 3 QB in the NFL to me. He wasn't healthy last year and that team needs A LOT of help for any QB to succeed. The other 3 are likely going to be somewhere between 20 - 32 and at least 2 of the 3 will likely be 25-32...JMHO...

 

[jakedog56]

When looking at starters...Luck is a top 3 QB in the NFL to me. He wasn't healthy last year and that team needs A LOT of help for any QB to succeed. The other 3 are likely going to be somewhere between 20 - 32 and at least 2 of the 3 will likely be 25-32...JMHO...

Top 3 in terms of the athletic ability required to play the QB position, but hardly top 3 when it comes to actual on the field results.

At times he has played great but at other times he has been quite bad. Of course when it comes to Luck, he gets all the credit for anything good happening but everyone else takes the blame for his negatives.

 

[Manster7588]

Chucks nuts to say that this early. What the AFCS has is Luck and 3 question marks, and even Luck looked questionable last season.

 

[jarntt]

Top 3 in terms of the athletic ability required to play the QB position, but hardly top 3 when it comes to actual on the field results.

At times he has played great but at other times he has been quite bad. Of course when it comes to Luck, he gets all the credit for anything good happening but everyone else takes the blame for his negatives.

Of course... I'm sure it has nothing to do with the little rivalry between Luck and RW. It's like Brady/Peyton all over. Taking into account age, etc. If they redrafted all NFL players today, IMO Luck would likely be the first pick. Maybe Watt, but I think Luck. Let's revisit after this season.

 

[jakedog56]

Of course... I'm sure it has nothing to do with the little rivalry between Luck and RW. It's like Brady/Peyton all over. Taking into account age, etc. If they redrafted all NFL players today, IMO Luck would likely be the first pick. Maybe Watt, but I think Luck. Let's revisit after this season.

Nope. There is no rivalry between the 2 in my mind at all. They play in different conferences and will see each other head to head 3-4 times in a career. So please stop thinking that you can assume what I am thinking.

Facts are that Luck was dead last (34th) in completion percentage among qualified passers last year. He was 32nd in QB rating ahead of only Foles and PManning (4.6 points behind CKaep!). His TD to INT ration was 1.25 to 1. It can be debated but in my mind those are the 3 most important QB stats.

Luck has been plagued throughout his career by poor decision making. He has all of the talent in the world but so far he his actual results are less than impressive:
Including playoffs: 61 games; 57.9% completion, 110 TDs to 67 INTs for a 1.64 to 1 TD to INT ratio (2 to 1 is considered decent). About 1.1 INTs per game.
He also has 32 fumbles, which in general he cannot be held totally accountable for but I know for a fact that he is causing some of those by holding onto the ball to long.

It isn't a question of talent with Luck. It is a question of arrogance (in thinking he can rely on his arm to do everything, not his personality, which seems to be pretty stable) and decision making.

To me, the big test for Luck is if he actually learned anything from watching Hasselback from the sidelines last year. If he can reel it in and gain control of what he is doing on the field then he is capable of greatness. Until then he is just a guy with a great arm who tries to do way too much.

 

[flyerhawk]

Of course... I'm sure it has nothing to do with the little rivalry between Luck and RW. It's like Brady/Peyton all over. Taking into account age, etc. If they redrafted all NFL players today, IMO Luck would likely be the first pick. Maybe Watt, but I think Luck. Let's revisit after this season.

Luck has the most turnovers of any QB in the league since he joined. Yet he is still considered a top 3 QB by a lot of folks.

You don't need to be a RW fanboy to see there has been some sort of disconnect between Luck's on field play and the perception a lot of fans have of him.

So far his career track seems to be most like Matt Stafford, not Peyton Manning.

 

[Rex Racer]

Luck has the most turnovers of any QB in the league since he joined. Yet he is still considered a top 3 QB by a lot of folks.

You don't need to be a RW fanboy to see there has been some sort of disconnect between Luck's on field play and the perception a lot of fans have of him.

So far his career track seems to be most like Matt Stafford, not Peyton Manning.

P. Manning's stat line through his first 4 seasons; 64 games, 16,418 yds, 111 TD, 81 INT, 60%

A. Luck's stat line through his first four seasons; 55 games, 14,838 yds, 101 TD, 55 INT, 58.1 %

 

[Broncos6482]

Brock Osweiler isn't that good, and I'm not convinced he ever will be that good. I haven't seen enough of Bortles to really comment, but his numbers look promising. He needs to cut down on the interceptions, though. Same thing with Mariota, I didn't see him play much but his numbers are promising.

As for Luck, the Colts seriously need to invest in their offensive line, and bring in skill position players that aren't over the hill. The problem is that Luck basically has to do everything for them, and I think that's why his turnover numbers are inflated.

 

[jarntt]

Facts are that Luck was dead last (34th) in completion percentage among qualified passers last year. He was 32nd in QB rating ahead of only Foles and PManning (4.6 points behind CKaep!). His TD to INT ration was 1.25 to 1. It can be debated but in my mind those are the 3 most important QB stats.

Sure if you are on a good team that doesn't have to throw the ball 600 times. Those are all stats that benefit guys who don't have to throw much. Look how good Romo was in those stats in the year Dallas ran constantly. When the defense is sitting back waiting for the pass and pinning their ears back to get the QB because you can't run it's a little different. And it's double dipping to say Td to Int and completion % and then also throw in rating since the first two are factors in calculating the 3rd. Lucks team sucks and he was hurt. No one would say his STATS last year were top 3. But using stats instead of what you see is biased towards guys that are on good teams.

 

[jakedog56]

Sure if you are on a good team that doesn't have to throw the ball 600 times. Those are all stats that benefit guys who don't have to throw much. Look how good Romo was in those stats in the year Dallas ran constantly. When the defense is sitting back waiting for the pass and pinning their ears back to get the QB because you can't run it's a little different. And it's double dipping to say Td to Int and completion % and then also throw in rating since the first two are factors in calculating the 3rd. Lucks team sucks and he was hurt. No one would say his STATS last year were top 3. But using stats instead of what you see is biased towards guys that are on good teams.

This is exactly what I mean. Everyone blames his entire team except him.

Bottom line is that he has to be responsible for his decision making regardless. He makes way too many mistakes and forces things way too much.

I don't like Harbaugh. I think he is a real douche. But I respect the hell out of him. He can really coach, especially QBs. He made Kaep look like an star. I think that he deserves a lot of credit for Luck's college performance and I think that Luck would have developed much better with a coach like him in the pros. But he hasn't had a good coach and has regressed instead of improving. He still has plenty of time to turn it around but he is no way close to a top 3 QB at this time as you claim, and his numbers prove that.

 

[jarntt]

Who said he is not to blame at all? I've never seen anyone on here say that. The point is If you don't think there is a difference for a young QB playing with a team like Seattle and a team like Indy I can't really explain it.

 

[Southieinnc]

There certainly are 4 quarterbacks in the AFCS that are legitimately young.
If they could get 4 legit coaches and 4 legit owners?????

 

[tducey]

I sort of agree with him. Luck is Luck of course. Mariota's going to be great and Bortles looks to be finding his way. Not sure about Brock though.

 

[eaglesnut]

Too bad it has only one legitimate defense and that's the team with the most questionable QB.

 

[SonnyCID]

Sure if you are on a good team that doesn't have to throw the ball 600 times. Those are all stats that benefit guys who don't have to throw much. Look how good Romo was in those stats in the year Dallas ran constantly. When the defense is sitting back waiting for the pass and pinning their ears back to get the QB because you can't run it's a little different. And it's double dipping to say Td to Int and completion % and then also throw in rating since the first two are factors in calculating the 3rd. Lucks team sucks and he was hurt. No one would say his STATS last year were top 3. But using stats instead of what you see is biased towards guys that are on good teams.

Yes, the running game helped Romo be more effecient, but he was already an efficient passer before that.

As for Luck, his most efficient year was a year in which he had his most passing attempts. Which is also true for Wilson. A fact that flies in the face of, "when you throw more, your efficiency dips".

Yes, Lucks team sucks. But so does their divisional competition, which is obvious when looking at the Colts w/l splits in and out of the division.

Also, this idea that he throws more INTs simply because his defense sucks is false. If that were true, he would have more INTs late in game because he's trying fight them back from a deficit that the defense gave up. But, he has the exact same amount of INTs in first halves, as he has in second halves. The truth is that he has a lot of growing to do as a decision maker before being great as many have claimed since the day he entered the draft. It was just decided that he was great before he even walked on the field, didnt even need to prove it then, and every excuse in the book has been made since because he still hasn't proved it.

 

[jarntt]

"Also, this idea that he throws more INTs simply because his defense sucks is false. If that were true, he would have more INTs late in game because he's trying fight them back from a deficit that the defense gave up. But, he has the exact same amount of INTs in first halves, as he has in second halves. "

Why does the rest of his team suck less in the first half.
It doesn't have to be end of game desperation picks. Teams can sit back and wait for him on 3rd down and really every down all game long when his line and RBs aren't very good and when his receivers as a whole could be better too. Anyway, All Ints are not alike, but yes, he needs to make some better decisions. No QB is perfect. Luck is a little too much of a risk taker just like RW is more a game manager. No one said he is as smart as RW. And no this is not correct "A fact that flies in the face of, "when you throw more, your efficiency dips"". He wasn't healthy last year. He was so good the year before that he put up those numbers even when the other team knew he was throwing. If he threw less his efficiency would have been even higher.

 

[HammerDown]

Why are Seahawks and Brady fans so incredibly insecure about Andrew Luck? That's always puzzled me.

 

[PatsFan2003]

Luck has the most turnovers of any QB in the league since he joined. Yet he is still considered a top 3 QB by a lot of folks.

You don't need to be a RW fanboy to see there has been some sort of disconnect between Luck's on field play and the perception a lot of fans have of him.

So far his career track seems to be most like Matt Stafford, not Peyton Manning.

I think he's much better than Stafford. Luck's teams have sucked. He'll be out of football in 3 years if they don't do something.

I don't know if I'd put him the top 3 but top 5 looks like a no-brainer for Luck