SlinkyRedfoot
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Here's what I think is a decent breakdown of the Tigers rotation heading into 2016.
The Tigers had, by a reasonable margin, the worst starting rotation in 2015. About 30% of their starters' innings came from Price and Verlander, who pitched 279.1 inn with a 2.93 ERA. Price is gone and has been replaced with Jordan Zimmerman and Verlander is presumably healthy.
The rest of their rotation combined for 662.2 inn with a 5.55 ERA. Nearly 90% of that was made up of starts from Simon, Sanchez, Greene, Lobstein, Boyd, and Norris. The changes for 2016 include swapping out Simon for Pelfrey and expecting more innings from Norris.
Can a Zimmerman/Verlander combo improve on what the Tigers got from Price/Verlander in 2015? The innings shouldn't be a problem, but I'm not sure that 2.93 ERA is within reach. Moving to the AL, I'm thinking Zimmerman will be just short of 200 IP with an ERA bump for switching leagues - lets say 190 IP with a 3.80 ERA. If Verlander is healthy (and the reports are that he is), I could see him getting 200 IP, but the ERA is tough to guess. 6.62 in his first six starts of 2015 and 2.27 in the 14 subsequent starts. If he ups his innings to 200, I think he'll be somewhere between those, and likely closer to the latter than the former. Lets say 200 IP with a 3.50 ERA.
That would give them 390 IP with a 3.65 ERA. Assuming their going to match their total starters innings of 942(which was basically the league average), the rest of the starters would have to offer more than 552 IP with a 5.58 in order to improve on their 2015 rotation ERA of 4.78.
Frankly, I see no improvement in going from Simon to Pelfrey - it could end up being a step back. In 2015, Simon gave the Tigers 187 IP with a 5.05 ERA. Over the last three seasons, Pelfrey has carried a 4.94 ERA, but he did make some adjustments to his offerings last year that seemed to pay off and netted him a 4.26 ERA. I don't see any reason to think that he'll do significantly better or worse than his career mark of 4.52. So the ERA looks to be an improvement, but my question is the innings. Pelfrey has only pitched 187 innings once in the last five years and he's averaged only 111 IP per season over that time. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, let's put him at 140 IP with a 4.50 ERA.
So now we're at 530 IP with a 3.87 ERA, 412 IP to go, with Sanchez and Norris to go. Sanchez and his shoulder are a wild card. Presumably that shoulder caused a career 117 ERA+ pitcher to drop to an ERA+ of 79 in 2015. Will the shoulder allow him to improve his ERA, or increase his IP? I think yes and no. Let's say 150 IP at 3.99 ERA.
It's a safe bet to expect Norris will offer significantly more than the 36.2 IP he gave the Tigers in 2015. I've seen a few people reference possible innings limit on Norris, which I'm not sure I agree with. First, he pitched 150.2 in 2015 for Buffalo, Toronto and Detroit, so an IP increase of just 20% would get him to 180. Secondly, this is not a future ace that we're talking about, so I'm not sure why the Tigers would baby him and limit his innings thereby handing starts to Boyd and Greene. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think 175 IP is easily in reach for him, and I'm going with that. I do not think his ERA of 3.68 will hold up over those innings, though. Most reports I've read project him to be a borderline starter/reliever, and his ERA in the minors was 4.08. I think his ERA will be north of that across a full season as a starter in the majors. I'll go with 4.20 because it's higher than 4.08 and sometimes I smoke weed.
Those projections combine for 855 IP with a 3.97 ERA. That leaves about 90 innings for a Boyd/Greene combo. Those two combined for an ERA of 6.45 in 2015. I think, given Boyd's ceiling and Greene's artery surgery potentially helping his feel, they could certainly improve on that ERA, but how much is the question? It could be a whole lot, but until I see either produce at the major league level, I'm hesitant to go lower than 5.50.
JZ/JV - 390 IP - 3.65 ERA
AS - 150 IP - 3.99 ERA
MP - 140 IP - 4.50 ERA
DN - 175 IP - 4.20 ERA
MB/SG - 87 IP - 5.50 ERA
Total - 942 IP - 4.12 ERA
That's a 0.66 ERA improvement over 2015, which is significant, but still would likely put them at about league average. Of course, some of these guys could outperform my guesses here, but I don't see any reason to expect them to. On the other hand, should health prevent JV, AS or MP from reaching these innings, those IP will presumably go to MB/SG, which could drive the rotation's ERA up with a quickness.
If health is on their side, I think the Tigers could have an average rotation (which if their lineup stays healthy -- a whole other story -- should make them a contender). If injuries bite them, it could get ugly, though I doubt as ugly as 2015.
The Tigers had, by a reasonable margin, the worst starting rotation in 2015. About 30% of their starters' innings came from Price and Verlander, who pitched 279.1 inn with a 2.93 ERA. Price is gone and has been replaced with Jordan Zimmerman and Verlander is presumably healthy.
The rest of their rotation combined for 662.2 inn with a 5.55 ERA. Nearly 90% of that was made up of starts from Simon, Sanchez, Greene, Lobstein, Boyd, and Norris. The changes for 2016 include swapping out Simon for Pelfrey and expecting more innings from Norris.
Can a Zimmerman/Verlander combo improve on what the Tigers got from Price/Verlander in 2015? The innings shouldn't be a problem, but I'm not sure that 2.93 ERA is within reach. Moving to the AL, I'm thinking Zimmerman will be just short of 200 IP with an ERA bump for switching leagues - lets say 190 IP with a 3.80 ERA. If Verlander is healthy (and the reports are that he is), I could see him getting 200 IP, but the ERA is tough to guess. 6.62 in his first six starts of 2015 and 2.27 in the 14 subsequent starts. If he ups his innings to 200, I think he'll be somewhere between those, and likely closer to the latter than the former. Lets say 200 IP with a 3.50 ERA.
That would give them 390 IP with a 3.65 ERA. Assuming their going to match their total starters innings of 942(which was basically the league average), the rest of the starters would have to offer more than 552 IP with a 5.58 in order to improve on their 2015 rotation ERA of 4.78.
Frankly, I see no improvement in going from Simon to Pelfrey - it could end up being a step back. In 2015, Simon gave the Tigers 187 IP with a 5.05 ERA. Over the last three seasons, Pelfrey has carried a 4.94 ERA, but he did make some adjustments to his offerings last year that seemed to pay off and netted him a 4.26 ERA. I don't see any reason to think that he'll do significantly better or worse than his career mark of 4.52. So the ERA looks to be an improvement, but my question is the innings. Pelfrey has only pitched 187 innings once in the last five years and he's averaged only 111 IP per season over that time. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, let's put him at 140 IP with a 4.50 ERA.
So now we're at 530 IP with a 3.87 ERA, 412 IP to go, with Sanchez and Norris to go. Sanchez and his shoulder are a wild card. Presumably that shoulder caused a career 117 ERA+ pitcher to drop to an ERA+ of 79 in 2015. Will the shoulder allow him to improve his ERA, or increase his IP? I think yes and no. Let's say 150 IP at 3.99 ERA.
It's a safe bet to expect Norris will offer significantly more than the 36.2 IP he gave the Tigers in 2015. I've seen a few people reference possible innings limit on Norris, which I'm not sure I agree with. First, he pitched 150.2 in 2015 for Buffalo, Toronto and Detroit, so an IP increase of just 20% would get him to 180. Secondly, this is not a future ace that we're talking about, so I'm not sure why the Tigers would baby him and limit his innings thereby handing starts to Boyd and Greene. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think 175 IP is easily in reach for him, and I'm going with that. I do not think his ERA of 3.68 will hold up over those innings, though. Most reports I've read project him to be a borderline starter/reliever, and his ERA in the minors was 4.08. I think his ERA will be north of that across a full season as a starter in the majors. I'll go with 4.20 because it's higher than 4.08 and sometimes I smoke weed.
Those projections combine for 855 IP with a 3.97 ERA. That leaves about 90 innings for a Boyd/Greene combo. Those two combined for an ERA of 6.45 in 2015. I think, given Boyd's ceiling and Greene's artery surgery potentially helping his feel, they could certainly improve on that ERA, but how much is the question? It could be a whole lot, but until I see either produce at the major league level, I'm hesitant to go lower than 5.50.
JZ/JV - 390 IP - 3.65 ERA
AS - 150 IP - 3.99 ERA
MP - 140 IP - 4.50 ERA
DN - 175 IP - 4.20 ERA
MB/SG - 87 IP - 5.50 ERA
Total - 942 IP - 4.12 ERA
That's a 0.66 ERA improvement over 2015, which is significant, but still would likely put them at about league average. Of course, some of these guys could outperform my guesses here, but I don't see any reason to expect them to. On the other hand, should health prevent JV, AS or MP from reaching these innings, those IP will presumably go to MB/SG, which could drive the rotation's ERA up with a quickness.
If health is on their side, I think the Tigers could have an average rotation (which if their lineup stays healthy -- a whole other story -- should make them a contender). If injuries bite them, it could get ugly, though I doubt as ugly as 2015.
