SportsHoopla Top 25 Week 7 Discussion thread

[rmilia1]

I'll reserve total judgement of Iowa's ooc until seasons end. The only team I know for certain is terrible is North Texas. Right now Pity is 5-1 and could easily end up with 8 or 9 wins. ISU isn't very good imo but that's a game we are forced to play and while Illinois State is FCS they are elite FCS and would likely beat 50 plus FBS teams, maybe more. Frankly it's just too early to know. If Pitt goes 9-3 and ISU wins 6 games I'd say the ooc was fine. We will have to see

 

[Hook'Em0608]

Iowa State may be slightly more talented than MAC schools. Their average recruiting rank the last 4 season was in the upper 60's. And they've only had 8 guys drafted in the last decade. And they are 0-1 this year agasint the MAC. IMO there are multiple MAC teams better than them. Sun Belt teams are generally awful for the most part. So I cant disagree with you there.

Iowa has only scheduled one other P5 team the last 5 years and that was Pittsburgh for three of those seasons. Given the division they now play in, their schedule is only slightly better than a mid major schedule. And in some instances there are mid majors who have played tougher schedules. Like I said I get why they play Iowa State every year, but don't try and spin it just because they are a P5 school that it's somehow a good opponent.

Talent level doesn't always mean a better team. A large part of a winning football team is the mental make up of the team as well. Iowa St players, while D1 talented, are beat down mentally from always losing and don't know how to win. Also, NFL caliber players doesn't mean overall D1 talent. Any coach who has moved up from lower level football to power 5 football tells you they are able to attract higher caliber athletes to power 5 schools. Even still, Iowa St still probably puts out more NFL players despite being far away from NFL athlete breeding grounds unlike many MAC schools who are near fertile areas but rarely get any power 5 caliber athletes. However, a team like Toledo in 2015 has a winning mindset and excellent coaching and therefore are a better team. They aren't going to upset a true contender from a power 5 school though.

NFL Draft picks the last 10 years.

Iowa St - 10
Pittsburgh - 23

MAC

Akron - 4
Ball St - 7
Bowling Green - 4
Buffalo - 6
Central Michigan - 8
E. Michigan - 3
Kent St - 6
Massachusetts - 3
Miami (OH) - 6
N. Illinois - 6
Ohio - 6
Toledo - 4
W. Michigan - 6

Sun Belt

Appalachian St - 9
Arkansas St - 8
Georgia Southern - 3
Georgia St - 2
Idaho - 7
Louisiana Lafayette - 4
Louisiana Monroe - 2
New Mexico St - 3
South Alabama - 0
Texas St - 1
Troy - 7

Even by the NFL draft pick metric Iowa St is better. Recruiting rankings and it isn't even close with any of those schools over a 4 year period.

 

[TigerBait1971]

LEONARD STATE UNIVERSITY #1, BOI!!!!

 

[Jakology]

Georgia Tech should be ranked.....100th.

 

[ericd7633]

Talent level doesn't always mean a better team. A large part of a winning football team is the mental make up of the team as well. Iowa St players, while D1 talented, are beat down mentally from always losing and don't know how to win. Also, NFL caliber players doesn't mean overall D1 talent. Any coach who has moved up from lower level football to power 5 football tells you they are able to attract higher caliber athletes to power 5 schools. Even still, Iowa St still probably puts out more NFL players despite being far away from NFL athlete breeding grounds unlike many MAC schools who are near fertile areas but rarely get any power 5 caliber athletes. However, a team like Toledo in 2015 has a winning mindset and excellent coaching and therefore are a better team. They aren't going to upset a true contender from a power 5 school though.

NFL Draft picks the last 10 years.

Iowa St - 10
Pittsburgh - 23

MAC

Akron - 4
Ball St - 7
Bowling Green - 4
Buffalo - 6
Central Michigan - 8
E. Michigan - 3
Kent St - 6
Massachusetts - 3
Miami (OH) - 6
N. Illinois - 6
Ohio - 6
Toledo - 4
W. Michigan - 6

Sun Belt

Appalachian St - 9
Arkansas St - 8
Georgia Southern - 3
Georgia St - 2
Idaho - 7
Louisiana Lafayette - 4
Louisiana Monroe - 2
New Mexico St - 3
South Alabama - 0
Texas St - 1
Troy - 7

Even by the NFL draft pick metric Iowa St is better. Recruiting rankings and it isn't even close with any of those schools over a 4 year period.

So on average Iowa State has .9 players drafted(2006-2015) and the average MAC school, excluding UMass since they just joined, has .55 players drafted per year. Not that big of a gap and that's with teams like EMU and Akron included in that total who are awful programs.

Iowa State would be a good MAC team. Would they win the league this year? No I don't think so considering they already lost to one this year. They are a P5 team in status only.

Also it should be noted the MAC is definitely behind the AAC and probably the Mountain West in terms of conference supremecy diminishing the value even more.

 

[ericd7633]

I'll reserve total judgement of Iowa's ooc until seasons end. The only team I know for certain is terrible is North Texas. Right now Pity is 5-1 and could easily end up with 8 or 9 wins. ISU isn't very good imo but that's a game we are forced to play and while Illinois State is FCS they are elite FCS and would likely beat 50 plus FBS teams, maybe more. Frankly it's just too early to know. If Pitt goes 9-3 and ISU wins 6 games I'd say the ooc was fine. We will have to see

Pitt's only 4-1 and they could also just as easily win only 5 or 6 games. Iowa State will be lucky to get to 4 wins this year IMO. They've done nothing to suggest they'll actually beat another Big 12 team. North Texas is equivalent to a D2 school this year and then FCS. Sure playing two P5 schools is supposed to look good, but when you see who those schools are its really not. That would be like me saying Rutgers has a good OOC because they played Kansas and Washington State. No they didn't.

 

[Hook'Em0608]

So on average Iowa State has .9 players drafted(2006-2015) and the average MAC school, excluding UMass since they just joined, has .55 players drafted per year. Not that big of a gap and that's with teams like EMU and Akron included in that total who are awful programs.

Iowa State would be a good MAC team. Would they win the league this year? No I don't think so considering they already lost to one this year. They are a P5 team in status only.

Also it should be noted the MAC is definitely behind the AAC and probably the Mountain West in terms of conference supremecy diminishing the value even more.

If Iowa St continued to recruit the way they do in the Big 12 they would dominate the MAC. They would fix their losing culture and their superior talent would defeat MAC schools. You could take the best class from a MAC school the last 4 years and it wouldn't be better than any Iowa St class. Let alone to a single program from the MAC head to head.

2012 Iowa St #67 Toledo #78
2013 Iowa St #60 Toledo #75
2014 Iowa St #58 W. Michigan #71
2015 Iowa St #66 W. Michigan #76

Iowa St is one of the worst recruiting power 5 schools in the country and still outclass a MAC school. It's their culture that is broken and that is why they occasionally lose to less talented teams. Just like say for instance how Texas loses to less talented teams. They don't know how to win and close out games. Do you really believe there is more talent on Toledo's roster than Arkansas for instance? They beat Arkansas too this year. They are a team of winners while Arkansas and Iowa St have done nothing but achieve mediocrity or worse their entire careers.

So I agree, playing Toledo this year is more dangerous than playing Iowa St. However, over the long haul, Iowa St is the more dangerous team to have on your schedule yearly. Toledo is eventually gonna be inexperienced and mediocre for a MAC school. That will always be worse and less of a threat than Iowa St on any given year.

 

[rmilia1]

Pitt's only 4-1 and they could also just as easily win only 5 or 6 games. Iowa State will be lucky to get to 4 wins this year IMO. They've done nothing to suggest they'll actually beat another Big 12 team. North Texas is equivalent to a D2 school this year and then FCS. Sure playing two P5 schools is supposed to look good, but when you see who those schools are its really not. That would be like me saying Rutgers has a good OOC because they played Kansas and Washington State. No they didn't.

Well we shall find out. That's the cool part, we will actually get to see the games get played. Hell Oregon could end up 4-8 too. Anything is possible

 

[ericd7633]

If Iowa St continued to recruit the way they do in the Big 12 they would dominate the MAC. They would fix their losing culture and their superior talent would defeat MAC schools. You could take the best class from a MAC school the last 4 years and it wouldn't be better than any Iowa St class. Let alone to a single program from the MAC head to head.

2012 Iowa St #67 Toledo #78
2013 Iowa St #60 Toledo #75
2014 Iowa St #58 W. Michigan #71
2015 Iowa St #66 W. Michigan #76

Iowa St is one of the worst recruiting power 5 schools in the country and still outclass a MAC school. It's their culture that is broken and that is why they occasionally lose to less talented teams. Just like say for instance how Texas loses to less talented teams. They don't know how to win and close out games. Do you really believe there is more talent on Toledo's roster than Arkansas for instance? They beat Arkansas too this year. They are a team of winners while Arkansas and Iowa St have done nothing but achieve mediocrity or worse their entire careers.

So I agree, playing Toledo this year is more dangerous than playing Iowa St. However, over the long haul, Iowa St is the more dangerous team to have on your schedule yearly. Toledo is eventually gonna be inexperienced and mediocre for a MAC school. That will always be worse and less of a threat than Iowa St on any given year.

Lol. Superior talent? That's already been disproved by your research above. Like I said earlier they might get slightly better talent than MAC schools but Iowa State hasn't done anything with it.

Also it should be noted in 2013 and 2014 there were 4 MAC schools rated higher by Sagarin than what Iowa State was. And Iowa State has lost to 2 FCS schools over the last 3 years.

 

[USCDoom]

That team beat TEN bowl eligible teams. Which I believe is a record.

2002 USC beat 10 teams with 7 or more wins.

 

[Smart]

Eh, Pitt and Wisky are both fringe Top 25 teams. Just like 2 best teams Bama beat. Only difference in the 2 schedules is Bama lost to the only legit top 25 team either team has played

Let's not kid ourselves. Iowa didn't beat Wisconsin. Wisconsin beat themselves. Iowa's defense was good, but it's not why our QB tripped over his own offensive lineman and fumbled. It's not why we dropped five passes that should have led to first downs.

Iowa is a good team. You would lose by 14+ to Alabama on a neutral field.

 

[rmilia1]

Let's not kid ourselves. Iowa didn't beat Wisconsin. Wisconsin beat themselves. Iowa's defense was good, but it's not why our QB tripped over his own offensive lineman and fumbled. It's not why we dropped five passes that should have led to first downs.

Iowa is a good team. You would lose by 14+ to Alabama on a neutral field.

Probably. Iowa should still be ranked ahead of Bama. You don't rank teans,based on who you think is better, you rank them baser on what they've accomplished,on the year so far If you want to rank them based on who you think is better then that's called a power rating

 

[4down20]

I'll reserve total judgement of Iowa's ooc until seasons end. The only team I know for certain is terrible is North Texas. Right now Pity is 5-1 and could easily end up with 8 or 9 wins. ISU isn't very good imo but that's a game we are forced to play and while Illinois State is FCS they are elite FCS and would likely beat 50 plus FBS teams, maybe more. Frankly it's just too early to know. If Pitt goes 9-3 and ISU wins 6 games I'd say the ooc was fine. We will have to see

Translation: Rather than admit the truth, I'm going to delay admitting it until the last possible minute and pray something changes by then.

 

[rmilia1]

Translation: Rather than admit the truth, I'm going to delay admitting it until the last possible minute and pray something changes by then.

What's there to admit? Stuff will work itself out, it always does. That's why projecting is stupid. No point in that when the games are going to happen

 

[4down20]

What's there to admit? Stuff will work itself out, it always does. That's why projecting is stupid. No point in that when the games are going to happen

They work themselves out because all the cupcake games you put so much value in right now are no longer the only data points and we get to see the real deal.

Just like they worked themselves out last week with Northwestern.

 

[rmilia1]

They work themselves out because all the cupcake games you put so much value in right now are no longer the only data points and we get to see the real deal.

Just like they worked themselves out last week with Northwestern.

Exactly it worked itself out with NW. They lost so they moved down. Doesn't change what happened the first 5 weeks. That's why I don't get projecting. It's pointless

 

[4down20]

Exactly it worked itself out with NW. They lost so they moved down. Doesn't change what happened the first 5 weeks. That's why I don't get projecting. It's pointless

You are projecting no matter if you like it or not and have been since day 1. If not, you would have had a top25 that was even worse than what you have been posting. I've seen actual rankings done by computers that don't project and don't use previous years data - it's a wasteland.

Maybe someday you'll understand that ignoring useful data is no different than adding useless data.

 

[dennis580]

Exactly it worked itself out with NW. They lost so they moved down. Doesn't change what happened the first 5 weeks. That's why I don't get projecting. It's pointless

Totally agree about projecting that has no place in rankings. Thats why I like the playoff committee so much. They dont project at all. They reevaluate the body of work every week. A lot of people complained about TCU dropping to #3 to #6 in the final poll. A couple of ESPN people even said they shouldn't have put TCU at #3 if they was going to drop to #6 after winning by 52 the next week.

But FSU, and Baylor beat top 10 teams on the final week, and Ohio St absolutely slaughtered a top 15 team while TCU slaughtered a 2 win team. So after adding the final week body of work the committee felt those teams had earned the right to jump TCU.

 

[rmilia1]

Totally agree about projecting that has no place in rankings. Thats why I like the playoff committee so much. They dont project at all. They reevaluate the body of work every week. A lot of people complained about TCU dropping to #3 to #6 in the final poll. A couple of ESPN people even said they shouldn't have put TCU at #3 if they was going to drop after winning by 50 the next.

But FSU, and Baylor beat top 10 teams on the final week, and Ohio St absolutely slaughtered a top 15 team while TCU slaughtered a 2 win team. So after adding the final week body of work the committee felt those teams had earned the right to jump TCU.

The,problem with projecting is it encourages bias. You are always going to project your team or teams you know well to do better than teams,you don't know much about. Also if you claim to be doing projections but then comment on how you don't watch games of teams you don't consider relevant then what the hell are you basing your projections on?

 

[Hook'Em0608]

Lol. Superior talent? That's already been disproved by your research above. Like I said earlier they might get slightly better talent than MAC schools but Iowa State hasn't done anything with it.

Also it should be noted in 2013 and 2014 there were 4 MAC schools rated higher by Sagarin than what Iowa State was. And Iowa State has lost to 2 FCS schools over the last 3 years.

You are shifting the argument from talent to overall team strength using all MAC teams to make your point. I've never argued that Iowa St has a better team than every single MAC school every single year. I've only argued they have more talent on a year in and year out basis and it is a tougher yearly game than playing any of the MAC schools on a year in and year out basis. Iowa St is 4-1 playing the MAC the last 5 times they've played them. That includes a win over an 11 win Northern Illinois team. That is the premiere MAC program. In fact 3 of those 5 games are against the top two programs in the MAC. Northern Illinois and Toledo. Toledo appears to be unusually strong this season for a MAC school and beat two power 5 school already including Iowa St. They are ranked in my top 25 and a very solid team. They still could only beat Iowa St by one score...

Iowa St is 11-4 against MAC schools since moving to the Big 12. During that same time period, Notre Dame is 25-5 against the service academies. Now we all know that Notre Dame is 10x the program with 10x the talent as Iowa St but even they occasionally lose to non power 5 opponents. It happens. Especially when your program is struggling. Culture of losing is hard to overcome.