Milk's under-rated/Over rated players on draft day

[MilkSpiller22]

Under-rated

1. Devin Smith- this player is getting no love at all... He was a 2nd round pick by the Jets, and he is going undrafted in most drafts... Just because he is a Jet, people totally dismiss him... He is the only FAST offensive weapon the Jets have, and is likely already the teams BEST playmaker... I am expecting him to average 3 RUSHES per game for that exact reason... And any WR who will get rushes is worth a roster spot...

2. Darren McFadden- I know, he has disappointed us in the past... He has had trouble staying healthy, and has just become the face of failure... BUT he is now on a team with the best offensive line, and only really Joseph Randall to compete with... I don't see Randall as a full time back, so worst comes to worst McFadden should average double digit carries per game... And if that is true, with that offensive line he should be more than serviceable as a Flex option... And if he is the number one there, he should get over 200 carries this season, and he would be a clear number one RB... SOMETIMES you should pay for the situation and NOT the player... and this is the perfect example of that...

3. Joseph Randall- see above

4. Geno Smith- I guess by now you can tell I am a Jet Fan... But seriously, what is the worst that can happen if you draft him??? He has some offensive talent around him and he is on a team with a very good defense... The worst thing that can happen is he sucks and you drop him... But he could easily be a top 20 QB this season, and if that happens then you just drafted a serviceable backup later than anyone else did... consider that a win...

Over-rated

1. Jimmy Graham- he might still be the 2nd best TE in football, but don't pay up for this guy... Russell Wilson has never had over 280 completions, there is no way that even with an improved Wilson that he will get enough completions to get Graham 80 receptions... Chances are Graham will get under 75 receptions... And the team will not just change its philosophy of being a run first team in the red zone, so getting double digit TDs is going to be very hard... Don't forget that Graham is not a good blocker, and because of that he plays significantly less snaps than the other top TEs...

2. Rob Gronkowski- he is the BEST TE by far this season... But now if you want him you must pay a first round price... Do you really want to take a risk in the first round?? there are much safer players...

3. Brandin Cooks- I don't really get why there is SO much love for this kid... he is fine, but he is a speed WR... Speed WR tend to be inconsistent week to week... Not to mention what Cooks did best last season, he just got competition in CJ Spiller, who is probably even a faster and more dynamic player... who would think that a player who is coming back from an injury on an offense who wants to run more with a QB at the back end of his career is projected to be picked in the first 3 rounds... Just sounds scary to me...

4. TY Hilton- another speed WR that I just don't see the love... But this time it is because the colts just have so many receiver weapons... Way too many mouths to feed, just don't see Hilton to be a consistent player this season...

5. Andrew Luck- There is no QB I would rather start a dynasty with, but I see him to be off to a slow start in 2015... I can see them running Frank gore to the grave the first 4-6 weeks... and this will hurt Lucks fantasy numbers...

6. TJ Yeldon- my rookie bust... Bust is too strong of a word... I don't think he will be bad, I just don't like Big, Slow Running backs for a BAD team... Even if that bad team is improving and heading in the right direction...

7. Odell Beckham- Hamstring problems already!!! hasn't played a full season yet, and is already being called the once in a generation WR... The hype is just too much... He will be great, but if you spend a first round pick on him then you can not afford anything less... there are much safer choices who will do similar things...

 

[Barilko]

Without my yays or nays
I must say nice write up Milk with very valid reasoning
Solid post good stuff

 

[TKOSpikes]

Under-rated

1. Devin Smith- this player is getting no love at all... He was a 2nd round pick by the Jets, and he is going undrafted in most drafts... Just because he is a Jet, people totally dismiss him... He is the only FAST offensive weapon the Jets have, and is likely already the teams BEST playmaker... I am expecting him to average 3 RUSHES per game for that exact reason... And any WR who will get rushes is worth a roster spot...

2. Darren McFadden- I know, he has disappointed us in the past... He has had trouble staying healthy, and has just become the face of failure... BUT he is now on a team with the best offensive line, and only really Joseph Randall to compete with... I don't see Randall as a full time back, so worst comes to worst McFadden should average double digit carries per game... And if that is true, with that offensive line he should be more than serviceable as a Flex option... And if he is the number one there, he should get over 200 carries this season, and he would be a clear number one RB... SOMETIMES you should pay for the situation and NOT the player... and this is the perfect example of that...

3. Joseph Randall- see above

4. Geno Smith- I guess by now you can tell I am a Jet Fan... But seriously, what is the worst that can happen if you draft him??? He has some offensive talent around him and he is on a team with a very good defense... The worst thing that can happen is he sucks and you drop him... But he could easily be a top 20 QB this season, and if that happens then you just drafted a serviceable backup later than anyone else did... consider that a win...

Over-rated

1. Jimmy Graham- he might still be the 2nd best TE in football, but don't pay up for this guy... Russell Wilson has never had over 280 completions, there is no way that even with an improved Wilson that he will get enough completions to get Graham 80 receptions... Chances are Graham will get under 75 receptions... And the team will not just change its philosophy of being a run first team in the red zone, so getting double digit TDs is going to be very hard... Don't forget that Graham is not a good blocker, and because of that he plays significantly less snaps than the other top TEs...

2. Rob Gronkowski- he is the BEST TE by far this season... But now if you want him you must pay a first round price... Do you really want to take a risk in the first round?? there are much safer players...

3. Brandin Cooks- I don't really get why there is SO much love for this kid... he is fine, but he is a speed WR... Speed WR tend to be inconsistent week to week... Not to mention what Cooks did best last season, he just got competition in CJ Spiller, who is probably even a faster and more dynamic player... who would think that a player who is coming back from an injury on an offense who wants to run more with a QB at the back end of his career is projected to be picked in the first 3 rounds... Just sounds scary to me...

4. TY Hilton- another speed WR that I just don't see the love... But this time it is because the colts just have so many receiver weapons... Way too many mouths to feed, just don't see Hilton to be a consistent player this season...

5. Andrew Luck- There is no QB I would rather start a dynasty with, but I see him to be off to a slow start in 2015... I can see them running Frank gore to the grave the first 4-6 weeks... and this will hurt Lucks fantasy numbers...

6. TJ Yeldon- my rookie bust... Bust is too strong of a word... I don't think he will be bad, I just don't like Big, Slow Running backs for a BAD team... Even if that bad team is improving and heading in the right direction...

7. Odell Beckham- Hamstring problems already!!! hasn't played a full season yet, and is already being called the once in a generation WR... The hype is just too much... He will be great, but if you spend a first round pick on him then you can not afford anything less... there are much safer choices who will do similar things...

Nice. But....

I wouldn't call Decker a non-playmaker.
I don't think anyone is under estimating DMC situation, just his durability of which there's none.
I'm in on Randle.
Worst thing for Geno is Fitzcrapstick reunited with Gailey... but yes, late pick no risk.

I agree on all your overs, except I think Gronk and Luck are well worth their prices.

Yeldon scares me as my RB2 in our dynasty.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Joseph Randle - here's my thoughts on why you should draft him over DMC:

• DAL made sure to limit his touches/exposure last year, overusing Murray like it was going out of style.
• DAL still kept him and didn't blink an eye at the off the field issues/shop lifting charges. I know Jerruh doesn't mind taking on the character issue guys, but a lot of teams out there would cut a 'backup' RB for similar issues.....unless they had some serious plans for that player being on their team in the upcoming season. Shoplifting AND weed charges within a handful of months of each other...how did this guy NOT get cut?
• Dude's athletic as hell - former standout track athlete, running and jumping. I like my fantasy guys to be freaks of nature when it comes to that stuff
• Lastly, and possibly the most important point, you can get him at a RB2 or even RB3 draft position, and he has a great chance at putting up some stellar RB1 numbers if he gets the lion's share for the 'Boys this season.

 

[TKOSpikes]

...the Colts didn't sign Gore for September. Not really sure about your reasoning there.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I agree on all your overs, except I think Gronk and Luck are well worth their prices.

agree completely.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Agree with most of Milks over rated, except Luck. Luck is always going to the #1 weapon for the Colts. Maybe JG also, I think Seahawks going to be looking for him in the red zone all the time, but I'm not drafting a TE until the 4th round or later and by then he'll be gone. So I guess I agree, just for a different reason.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

...the Colts didn't sign Gore for September. Not really sure about your reasoning there.

Even though it sounds weird... I really do think they DID sign Gore for September... There is no reason to get him if you are not going to use him, so using him sparingly so he MAY have the legs to play in the playoffs makes no sense... I think they will run him knowing that he is 32, and using him to keep Luck and the receivers more fresh...

 

[TKOSpikes]

I think you're severely under rating Gore's fitness level. He will not be over used, nor will he be used sparingly. Why no happy medium? Gut call sure, but that reasoning is hard to get behind.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think you're severely under rating Gore's fitness level. He will not be over used, nor will he be used sparingly. Why no happy medium? Gut call sure, but that reasoning is hard to get behind.

This sound right.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I think you're severely under rating Gore's fitness level. He will not be over used, nor will he be used sparingly. Why no happy medium? Gut call sure, but that reasoning is hard to get behind.

I mean 32 years old an he is in the top 50 in all time touches, there is a reason why many believe he will fall off the cliff...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I mean 32 years old an he is in the top 50 in all time touches, there is a reason why many believe he will fall off the cliff...

Yes and the Colts are aware of age and carries, thus the smart thing to do is not to over use him early.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I mean 32 years old an he is in the top 50 in all time touches, there is a reason why many believe he will fall off the cliff...

Same was said last year. Yet every time he had 20 carries, he had 100 yards or 80 and a TD. Now he's in a weaker division with a HUGE upgrade at every offensive skill position.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Same was said last year. Yet every time he had 20 carries, he had 100 yards or 80 and a TD. Now he's in a weaker division with a HUGE upgrade at every offensive skill position.

and a HUGE downgrade at OL compared to the 2014 '9ers.
Time will tell, but I believe we've been discussing/predicting the 'Gore falls off the cliff' for a few seasons now, yet all he does is produce. Gore is also a decent pass protector, so I expect an uptick in receptions/yards there compared to the routinely over thrown touch passes that Kaeps kept doing last year.

 

[TKOSpikes]

OL can be disguised by no 8 in the box though. That's why I didn't mention it.

And yes, I see receiving numbers much like Bradshaw last year. This is a great fit, IMO.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Yes and the Colts are aware of age and carries, thus the smart thing to do is not to over use him early.

That's what I am saying. I don't think the colts will hold him back at all. They will run with gore as far as gore will take them. I just can't imagine signing a player without intending to use that player. If they want him for the playoffs I would rather see him on the pup list. He may make it to the playoffs. I am not predicting his cliff dive, I just think he will be very heavily used. And luck has never had that before. So I think his numbers will fall back towards the pack a little.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

That's what I am saying. I don't think the colts will hold him back at all. They will run with gore as far as gore will take them. I just can't imagine signing a player without intending to use that player. If they want him for the playoffs I would rather see him on the pup list. He may make it to the playoffs. I am not predicting his cliff dive, I just think he will be very heavily used. And luck has never had that before. So I think his numbers will fall back towards the pack a little.

The thing is...I don't see him getting heavily used. You got Luck and all those receiving options, you only need to keep the Defense honest and on their toes by running the ball here and there, the main weapon is always going to be Luck.

 

[TKOSpikes]

That's what I am saying. I don't think the colts will hold him back at all. They will run with gore as far as gore will take them. I just can't imagine signing a player without intending to use that player. If they want him for the playoffs I would rather see him on the pup list. He may make it to the playoffs. I am not predicting his cliff dive, I just think he will be very heavily used. And luck has never had that before. So I think his numbers will fall back towards the pack a little.

You really think the Colts aren't concerned about running in December and January? Really?

Why you think he's not going to be used at a normal rate is strange.

Example #1 - they play Buffalo in week one. Probably more of a passing game there.

The Colts will have 16 game plans... 19 or 20 if they have their way. I guarantee they foresee Gore in all of them.... they didn't sign him believing if they get to Halloween with him it's a good thing.

 

[averagejoe]

I mean 32 years old an he is in the top 50 in all time touches, there is a reason why many believe he will fall off the cliff...

Here's my take on Gore: there is a magic age where every player declines. For most RB it seems to be age 30.
1) But most RB don't even make it to 30 before they decline. Lifespan of a RB is what, 4-5 years? Most are gone or replaced by the time they're 26.
2) There are exceptions to every "age" rule at every position - Gore is clearly an exception for the RB position. Of this list: Gore, AP, Le'Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch (most are top 10 backs, mind you), Gore is the only one that has not missed a game in the last 4 years! That takes a special kind of conditioned athlete.

 

[broncosmitty]

I don't understand the Gronkowski ranking.

Drafting any player is a vote of confidence in him out scoring the others available at his position. And no player is in a position to out score his peers more than Gronkowski.

I agree with Luck being up there. But not for the reasons you stated.

And I'm not a fan of Yeldon either.