Nos' 2nd Annual NFL Mock Draft : Chat

[MilkSpiller22]

Anybody want to grade my draft so far?

I know nothing about the players you picked,

But I like that your first 3 picks have all been Lineman...

first round a center, I love... With Manning getting older, the name of the game will be to keep him healthy, and by drafting a center in the first round shows that that is your priority...


I don't like the 4th round pick QB, again, I know nothing about him, but it is very rare for a late round QB to find success, Yes it happens, but it is just rare, and I think it might have been a waste... but I guess 4th rounders are a crap shoot anyway... But I would have probably drafted a player that would be more likely to help the 2015 Broncos...

and your 5th round pick conley- I don't see WR as a need, but you seem very high on him, if he reaches any of the potential you see in him then he will be a STEAL... But a team with already pretty deep WR depth, might just be a wasted pick... But you can afford that so late in the draft...

 

[cdumler7]

I know nothing about the players you picked,

But I like that your first 3 picks have all been Lineman...

first round a center, I love... With Manning getting older, the name of the game will be to keep him healthy, and by drafting a center in the first round shows that that is your priority...


I don't like the 4th round pick QB, again, I know nothing about him, but it is very rare for a late round QB to find success, Yes it happens, but it is just rare, and I think it might have been a waste... but I guess 4th rounders are a crap shoot anyway... But I would have probably drafted a player that would be more likely to help the 2015 Broncos...

and your 5th round pick conley- I don't see WR as a need, but you seem very high on him, if he reaches any of the potential you see in him then he will be a STEAL... But a team with already pretty deep WR depth, might just be a wasted pick... But you can afford that so late in the draft...

I went back and forth on the quarterback but most have Grayson going 2nd round so getting him at the end of the 4th round seemed like good value to me. Throw in this is most likely Manning's last year and our back up quarterback in Osweiler has his contract up after this season so that means after this season the Broncos actually have 0 quarterbacks so I figured a guy rated as a 2nd round pick getting him in the 4th was worth taking a shot on. The Broncos have 10 picks in this draft so I figured impact players for this upcoming season could be found in those other 9 picks. Throw in after about round 3 most teams are honestly lucky to find a rookie that contributes year one beyond just special teams.

Thanks though for the thoughts. Always good to get the outside perspective.

 

[Clayton]

Anybody want to grade my draft so far?

1.28.28 : C - Denver: Cameron Erving - Florida St. - I have his draft range from 10 to 35 so getting him at 28 is pretty good. Its a bit odd to see a project C prospect but he has the build to make it at C or G. Ive seen only one piece of tape of him playing Center and it looks really good. I'd give it an A-

2.27.59 : OLB - Hau'oli Kikaha - Washington - Lots of consistency in college but lots of injury concerns, too. Hard to grade, to be honest. He'll either be a decent sack guy or a nobody.

3.28.92 : DT - Marcus Hardison - Arizona State - Under the radar player with one of the most sought after skillsets in a 4-3. Like Erving, a small sample size.

4.34.133 : QB - Garrett Grayson - Colorado St. - Good value. One par with Hundley and Petty, imo, though thats a bit like being the tallest midget.

5.7.143 : WR - Chris Conley - Georgia - Another good value

Its actually really hard to grade your draft. My guess is that 3 of your guys bust hard and 2 of them end up being really solid starters for a long time. I just cant tell you which ones because of small sample sizes, injury backgrounds, physical limitations or lack of production.

If that sounds harsh, id like to note that Im not very high on this draft as a whole. You did a good job with what you had with your draft position and team needs for sure

 

[cdumler7]

1.28.28 : C - Denver: Cameron Erving - Florida St. - I have his draft range from 10 to 35 so getting him at 28 is pretty good. Its a bit odd to see a project C prospect but he has the build to make it at C or G. Ive seen only one piece of tape of him playing Center and it looks really good. I'd give it an A-

2.27.59 : OLB - Hau'oli Kikaha - Washington - Lots of consistency in college but lots of injury concerns, too. Hard to grade, to be honest. He'll either be a decent sack guy or a nobody.

3.28.92 : DT - Marcus Hardison - Arizona State - Under the radar player with one of the most sought after skillsets in a 4-3. Like Erving, a small sample size.

4.34.133 : QB - Garrett Grayson - Colorado St. - Good value. One par with Hundley and Petty, imo, though thats a bit like being the tallest midget.

5.7.143 : WR - Chris Conley - Georgia - Another good value

Its actually really hard to grade your draft. My guess is that 3 of your guys bust hard and 2 of them end up being really solid starters for a long time. I just cant tell you which ones because of small sample sizes, injury backgrounds, physical limitations or lack of production.

If that sounds harsh, id like to note that Im not very high on this draft as a whole. You did a good job with what you had with your draft position and team needs for sure

I completely understand your thoughts on my draft. Erving while looking good in the few games he played at Center is very raw for the position so yes a bit of a risk but the fact the guy has played LT, G, and Center and done pretty well at all of them makes me think he could develop into a quality starter for us for the next 10 years on the OL.

Kikaha definitely has the ability to either become the next Elvis Dumervil (that tweener that put up huge sack numbers in college but people though he was either a bit undersized or too slow to continue in the pros yet because of perfect technique find a way to do really well) or he could bust big time and hardly see any game time. I just loved that the guy has had 2 straight years playing on his repaired knee with no issues and for 2 straight years put up huge numbers against weak and strong competition. Many of the top sack guys you see them have that 5 sack game against a Division II school or whatever it is called these days to really pad the stats but for Kikaha he was doing it when they got into the Pac-10 games just as much as against the weaker guys.

Hardison again like you said hard to tell as he has one really good year with nothing before that. Was it just a fluke or is that a sign of things to come? I don't know but I loved the little that I saw of him this last year.

Grayson you are right he is most likely going to be nothing just like those other guys selected before him but the one thing that I love about him is he has an edge about him. Most outside of Colorado don't get to see that so they only know the stats but this kid has a confidence even in the worst of situations that he will rise to the occasion. We shall see.

 

[Clayton]

All it would really take is Grayson being a hit and your draft would be an A, too. Its hard to grade things at this point other than to say you went high risk/high reward imo

 

[MilkSpiller22]

All it would really take is Grayson being a hit and your draft would be an A, too. Its hard to grade things at this point other than to say you went high risk/high reward imo

That is the benefit of drafting a QB late... He probably wont hit, but if he does, then you automatically won the draft...

 

[blstoker]

Looks like Tampa Bay is up for 2 (5.26 & 5.32).

 

[cdumler7]

All it would really take is Grayson being a hit and your draft would be an A, too. Its hard to grade things at this point other than to say you went high risk/high reward imo

You are right I definitely went a lot more high risk/high reward in this draft. Probably more than I like. I really do like Grayson as a quarterback and I do think he is one of maybe 2 after the top-2 guys that could actually be something in this league at QB. More than him though I think this draft hinges more on Kikaha. When I watch his games I see Elvis Dumervil all over again. Teams will drop him down the draft because of his size and not being the most athletic guy on the field but to me as a sack guy you either have it or you don't and Kikaha has shown he wins with perfect technique and a never stop motor. If he can stay healthy I see him being able to pair with Von Miller for the next 5-7 years producing that 25-30 sacks combined between the two every single season.

 

[Clayton]

Looks like Tampa Bay is up for 2 (5.26 & 5.32).

DE with both picks?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Cdumler, do you think going CB in the 3rd round for the Jets, was a bad idea, forget about you liking the player...

 

[Clayton]

Cdumler, do you think going CB in the 3rd round for the Jets, was a bad idea, forget about you liking the player...

I do, though drafting the right player always helps. From what Ive seen with the Rams, needs drafting leads to more needs drafting

 

[blstoker]

I don't like the 4th round pick QB, again, I know nothing about him, but it is very rare for a late round QB to find success, Yes it happens, but it is just rare, and I think it might have been a waste... but I guess 4th rounders are a crap shoot anyway... But I would have probably drafted a player that would be more likely to help the 2015 Broncos...

You expressed similar issues with my picking Hundley for Chicago in the 3rd. I think you're looking at this the wrong way, I don't think that it'll take 61 picks (1.10 to 3.07) for the 3rd QB to come off the board. There have been 12 first round QBs since 2011 (1/4 of all selected), and over half of them have been busts (up to this point in their career). I'm not sure that Grayson makes it to the end of the fourth, fans tend to devalue QBs much more than NFL teams do, at least it seems that way in these mock drafts. I would say that after the bonefide top 2 or 3, every other QB drops in these mocks much farther than what really happens (example: in 2012 I had Seattle taking Russell Wilson in one of these mocks, in the 6th round, reports after the draft show that even if Seattle hadn't taken him, Wilson wouldn't have made it out of the third).

As far as success, that's all relative, but here's something about the last 4 drafts (since drafting a QB, or any other position, got a lot cheaper). 11 of 12 first round QBs have started for their clubs for at least 1 season. 4 of 6 second rounders and 3 of 4 third rounders. That's 18 of 22 (Manziel, Osweiler, Garoppolo and Mallett are the 4 who haven't), and I just don't see only 3 QBs in the first 3 rounds. Tennessee needs a qb probably as bad as anyone, and in this draft they haven't sniffed one. Maybe the fans like Mettenberger, but I just don't think Tennessee goes into the 6th round without having selected a QB. I could be wrong, but it's unlikely. If Grayson is there at #133, it seems like a great value pick for a team like Denver that has the luxury to groom Garoppolo and Grayson to duke it out to take over for Peyton when he retires.

 

[Nosferatu]

5.25.161: Carolina: Tyeler Davison - DT - Fresno State
5.26.162: Tampa Bay:
5.27.163: Minnesota: Cody Riggs - CB/S - Notre Dame
5.28.164: Denver: Xavier Williams - DT - Northen Iowa
5.29.165: Indianapolis: Trey Flowers - DE - Arkansas
5.30.166: Green Bay: Jesse James - TE - Penn St.
5.31.167: Seattle: Jordan Hicks - OLB - Texas
5.32.168: Tampa Bay:

 

[Clayton]

You expressed similar issues with my picking Hundley for Chicago in the 3rd. I think you're looking at this the wrong way, I don't think that it'll take 61 picks (1.10 to 3.07) for the 3rd QB to come off the board. There have been 12 first round QBs since 2011 (1/4 of all selected), and over half of them have been busts (up to this point in their career). I'm not sure that Grayson makes it to the end of the fourth, fans tend to devalue QBs much more than NFL teams do, at least it seems that way in these mock drafts. I would say that after the bonefide top 2 or 3, every other QB drops in these mocks much farther than what really happens (example: in 2012 I had Seattle taking Russell Wilson in one of these mocks, in the 6th round, reports after the draft show that even if Seattle hadn't taken him, Wilson wouldn't have made it out of the third).

As far as success, that's all relative, but here's something about the last 4 drafts (since drafting a QB, or any other position, got a lot cheaper). 11 of 12 first round QBs have started for their clubs for at least 1 season. 4 of 6 second rounders and 3 of 4 third rounders. That's 18 of 22 (Manziel, Osweiler, Garoppolo and Mallett are the 4 who haven't), and I just don't see only 3 QBs in the first 3 rounds. Tennessee needs a qb probably as bad as anyone, and in this draft they haven't sniffed one. Maybe the fans like Mettenberger, but I just don't think Tennessee goes into the 6th round without having selected a QB. I could be wrong, but it's unlikely. If Grayson is there at #133, it seems like a great value pick for a team like Denver that has the luxury to groom Garoppolo and Grayson to duke it out to take over for Peyton when he retires.

I agree with a lot thats said here. Fans tend to misjudge QBs because there is a LOT that goes into grading QBs. I do think some QBs get overrated but the QB position as a whole is underrated by fans because fans always think a QB is too big of a risk.

There is also the reality that teams need 2 good qbs in today's game. In any given season, you have a good chance of getting your QB injured. Hundley, Petty and Grayson are all gone in Rd3, imo, each one with a small chance of going in rd2.

 

[cdumler7]

Cdumler, do you think going CB in the 3rd round for the Jets, was a bad idea, forget about you liking the player...

Oh its definitely not a position of need but here is what I think could happen with some of that...I could see them moving him to safety. They then have Cro and Revis at the Corners and Rollins and Pryor at the Safety positions. That group could end up being the best secondary in the league and one that can force a lot of turnovers. It fits well then with the system that their new coach likes to run in being able to blitz like crazy and know the coverage is going to hold up in that situation. It also gives them a secondary that is together for the next say 4 years to really gel.

So probably for me if I am the Jets not the way I would have gone but I can see some bonuses that can come from it. For me I would have picked Nate Orchard of Utah. The Jets don't have much in the pass rush department from the OLB position. Richardson was the top guy with 8 so getting another guy coming after the quarterback makes sense considering the secondary even without Rollins is a huge strength for the team.

 

[pantherfanforever11]

I completely understand your thoughts on my draft. Erving while looking good in the few games he played at Center is very raw for the position so yes a bit of a risk but the fact the guy has played LT, G, and Center and done pretty well at all of them makes me think he could develop into a quality starter for us for the next 10 years on the OL.

Kikaha definitely has the ability to either become the next Elvis Dumervil (that tweener that put up huge sack numbers in college but people though he was either a bit undersized or too slow to continue in the pros yet because of perfect technique find a way to do really well) or he could bust big time and hardly see any game time. I just loved that the guy has had 2 straight years playing on his repaired knee with no issues and for 2 straight years put up huge numbers against weak and strong competition. Many of the top sack guys you see them have that 5 sack game against a Division II school or whatever it is called these days to really pad the stats but for Kikaha he was doing it when they got into the Pac-10 games just as much as against the weaker guys.

Hardison again like you said hard to tell as he has one really good year with nothing before that. Was it just a fluke or is that a sign of things to come? I don't know but I loved the little that I saw of him this last year.

Grayson you are right he is most likely going to be nothing just like those other guys selected before him but the one thing that I love about him is he has an edge about him. Most outside of Colorado don't get to see that so they only know the stats but this kid has a confidence even in the worst of situations that he will rise to the occasion. We shall see.

Whyile Erving might be Raw at Center dont forget the guy was really good at LT for FSU. his overall tape is not a small sample the kid will be fine. i think he is at worst a solid starter. nomatter where you put him. he is versatlile so one of three spots will fit him.

 

[cdumler7]

Whyile Erving might be Raw at Center dont forget the guy was really good at LT for FSU. his overall tape is not a small sample the kid will be fine. i think he is at worst a solid starter. nomatter where you put him. he is versatlile so one of three spots will fit him.

Which is why I said I think he is a quality starter for the team for the next 10 years. I agree he actually does have decent experience just it has been divided between 3 positions in his time with Florida State. I like players that are versatile especially for the OL so he is the one that makes the most sense for the Broncos at 28 if he is there. He of all my picks is my least that I worry about busting. He has a very high floor and a very high ceiling. The others have a very low floor and a very high ceiling that I picked.

 

[pantherfanforever11]

if Conley used right to start off with as a verticle threat out of the slot, he will develop just fine. reminds me a little of Moncrief

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Oh its definitely not a position of need but here is what I think could happen with some of that...I could see them moving him to safety. They then have Cro and Revis at the Corners and Rollins and Pryor at the Safety positions. That group could end up being the best secondary in the league and one that can force a lot of turnovers. It fits well then with the system that their new coach likes to run in being able to blitz like crazy and know the coverage is going to hold up in that situation. It also gives them a secondary that is together for the next say 4 years to really gel.

So probably for me if I am the Jets not the way I would have gone but I can see some bonuses that can come from it. For me I would have picked Nate Orchard of Utah. The Jets don't have much in the pass rush department from the OLB position. Richardson was the top guy with 8 so getting another guy coming after the quarterback makes sense considering the secondary even without Rollins is a huge strength for the team.

What you said here is all true, but the biggest reason I went CB in the 3rd is just in case cromartie or Revis gets hurt... When a team has a certain strength, they might not be able to adapt to another style of play if something goes wrong... by drafting a CB earlier than I should have, instead of a DE, then the strength has enough depth that it should remain the teams strength... AND of course your point!!!

 

[FlyerFinFan]

But thats not the criteria we were using when we drafted.

Well yes and no as it shows if you took a player too high or had a steal compared to the actual draft. The bottom line is getting the best players plus your team needs so that would be a pretty good gauge no? Otherwise we're just going off of what we've seen of players ourselves or what we've read and its not like kiper is the supreme master or anything haha! Either way it would be interesting who met their team needs and found more steals on average...