why cant i draft jimmy g at #3?

[nj_cup]

i'm drafting from the #3 spot in a 12 team ppr. scoring is 1pt-10yards 5pt bonus over 100 yards for both wr/rb.


the layout is qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/k/d


so conventional thinking would say take the best running back at #3? charles mccoy gone that would probably be forte.

now i can start 2 TE and my thinking is why not corner the market on the tight end spots? without injuries you figure the #1/#2 TE this year will be jimmy and gronk. after them there are about 3 other tight ends i would be good with getting. vernon thomas witten. after that you have a pot of ?'s.

i'm thinking of going jimmy and gronk then taking the best wr/rb when i come back in round 3. what are peoples thoughts of this? sure i will lose out on great backs and great receivers buuuuut i would hold a HUGE edge over another teams tight end.

jimmy vs jordan reed heath miller greg olsen i SHOULD win that matchup by 15+ points every week?

gronk as my flex going up against another guys wr3 or rb3 i should win that matchup by 20+ points every week no?

i know it goes against everything you think with fantasy but i really think its a good move esp with the "low" level talent out there in rb. chris johnson frank gore miller etc etc. decker/wallace/crabtree etc etc.

i did a mock i was able to land

jimmy/gronk/rodgers/bush/crabtree/richardson/decker. in a ppr 6pt all td setup i think thats a good lineup.

would love to know what people think...told my brother this and he thought i was nuts!

 

[wilwhite]

I'm not going to talk you out of it. If you're right about who the top two RBs will be, and they're gone, getting the top TE or QB will give you more of a points advantage than the third RB (if you're right about them).

What's good about Graham is he looks like the surest thing in FF - followed closely by elite pocket passers.

But that value is at the TE position. When you compare to the flex it's not the same advantage. I would take Graham at TE in a heartbeat, would strongly consider Gronk there too, but would hesitate about taking Gronk to be my starting flex - mostly because of the insane injury history going back to forever.

 

[nj_cup]

I'm not going to talk you out of it. If you're right about who the top two RBs will be, and they're gone, getting the top TE or QB will give you more of a points advantage than the third RB (if you're right about them).

What's good about Graham is he looks like the surest thing in FF - followed closely by elite pocket passers.

But that value is at the TE position. When you compare to the flex it's not the same advantage. I would take Graham at TE in a heartbeat, would strongly consider Gronk there too, but would hesitate about taking Gronk to be my starting flex - mostly because of the insane injury history going back to forever.

i agree about the risk with injuries but if healthy he will be the #2 TE and you can view both of them as elite WR level.

putting them 2 up against wr3 or rb3 (flex spot) or even TEvsTE its a landslide win.

on paper it looks good just dont know if i have the balls to go through and do it. what would be the thinking of NOT doing it?

 

[TKOSpikes]

You "can't" draft Graham at 3 because you can get Gronk at 22. In one flex leagues, I don't like putting a TE there. That's just me though....I understand your train of thought, I just wouldn't do it...not at 3 (5 maybe).

 

[wilwhite]

what would be the thinking of NOT doing it?

This:

i agree about the risk with injuries

In 4 seasons, Gronk has 24 games with double digit points (non-PPR). In the last four years, as a random example, DJAX had 22.

 

[leftypower]

Well, that would certainly against the grain - and outside the box. High reward, but with Gronk I think there is a lot of risk taking him in the 2nd based upon the injury history. I probably wouldn't have the nuts to try something like that but IF they both stay healthy, it would likely be equivalent to taking 2 top 10 WR's. In ppr no one would highly question going WR/WR. The flex makes it doable.
Alas, at #3 I just don't believe I could pull the trigger on Graham with Forte and/or Peterson sitting there.

 

[nj_cup]

Well, that would certainly against the grain - and outside the box. High reward, but with Gronk I think there is a lot of risk taking him in the 2nd based upon the injury history. I probably wouldn't have the nuts to try something like that but IF they both stay healthy, it would likely be equivalent to taking 2 top 10 WR's. In ppr no one would highly question going WR/WR. The flex makes it doable.
Alas, at #3 I just don't believe I could pull the trigger on Graham with Forte and/or Peterson sitting there.

exactly i'm in the same boat......on paper it looks tempting but i really dont have the balls to do it either especially in a money league.

graham last year put up 10 points less then forte and scored more then peterson (injury) in my scoring system.

players in my leauge wont fill their "flex" spot position until around round 6. i will have it filled by the 2nd/3rd with a top 10 "wr" level player.

keep in mind also in a 12 team setup there are only a few TE that are dependable to put up good numbers. if i take 2 of the top that will leave about 6 teams left with scrub TE.


keep in mind also it doesn't have to be gronk taken #2 i i would have the pick of the litter when i go again in round 2.

 

[nj_cup]

im not sure if you guys had flex spots last year but could you give me the players you had in the spot?

 

[fordman84]

I wouldn't because in a 12 player draft, by the time you get another draft all the top RB, QB's, and WR will be gone. if others are going for the top 2 RB's, then I'd go with the top QB or #3 RB.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

My rule in fantasy. Don't give the team behind you an advantage over you. By picking graham so early you are doing that. You are letting someone take Calvin, a big 3 RB and Peyton after you.

 

[Davis_Mike]

I wouldn't do it. You are leaving so much on the board & won't be picking again till the end of round 2. I can see an argument for picking him towards the end of the 1st round.

What you need to look at is the difference between points for the elite at his position & the next tier player. Which ever position has the greatest difference in points between players when it's your turn to pick, that is who is who you draft. Based upon your scoring system & pre-draft ranking system.

 

[nj_cup]

I wouldn't because in a 12 player draft, by the time you get another draft all the top RB, QB's, and WR will be gone. if others are going for the top 2 RB's, then I'd go with the top QB or #3 RB.

normally i agree that i would be "chasing" rb/wr talent but just seems that there is a lot of quality (not elite) talent out there that will soften the blow of not landing forte/nelson which is who i would be looking at in all the mocks i've done come round 1&2.

now i should also mention in the mocks ive done with this strategy i've been able to land rodgers in the 2nd round and then come back with gronk in the 3rd round.

 

[Davis_Mike]

Mock drafts with people you are not actually drafting with is just about useless.

 

[nj_cup]

let me ask you guys this....if you did do this do you at least think there is an advantage in doing it?

like do you think you could win with that type of lineup?


like i said with the mock i did this was the team i fielded ( i know mock's differ) but just a sample

rodgers/bush/richardson/decker/wallace/jimmy/gronk. i could've took a few different rb other then richardson but i think he has the most upside

 

[nj_cup]

Mock drafts with people you are not actually drafting with is just about useless.

yes i agree 100% its just a run through to see what guys will still be there in rounds 6 on.

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

My rule in fantasy. Don't give the team behind you an advantage over you. By picking graham so early you are doing that. You are letting someone take Calvin, a big 3 RB and Peyton after you.

This... Graham is the real deal in FF, but I think Milk is right. It would worry me about reaching for him that early in a 12-team league. 10-team would be a little safer, but I still wouldn't do it.

 

[nj_cup]

but the team behind you is going to always have an advantage. i take forte. guy behind me is taking manning....calvin...jimmy. there is always going to be talent left on the board.


i think what makes the TOP TE more valuable is that there are only so many of them out there.


so no one sees any advantage of putting a team like this together?

 

[tlance]

I think taking Graham at 3 and going TE TE with the first two picks is a mistake for many reasons people have already mentioned, but here is one more.

Much of the appeal for Graham and Gronk is that they outscore other TEs by such a wide margin. While playing Gronk at flex does prohibit another owner from taking an elite TE, you are also limiting the upside of your team.

As explosive as Gronk is, he would not be considered a viable option at pick 22 if he were a WR because of the injury risk. His high price tag is partially derived from the fact that he is a dominant force at a weak position. You are paying sticker price to acquire his services, but then not even using him at TE where he gives you the greatest advantage.

 

[nj_cup]

Forget taking gronk then you could insert Thomas as the #2 TE then.

I should also add in I'm looking to target the 2nd TE in the 3rd round. The second round I am going to go after best available wr/rb or if top 4 qb is there to "limit my losses".

I wouldnt be limiting the 2nd te I take either. The flex spot is there it has to be used. Either I fill it with the 5th best offensive guy on my team or I fill it with one of the best players and go against your #5.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

but the team behind you is going to always have an advantage. i take forte. guy behind me is taking manning....calvin...jimmy. there is always going to be talent left on the board.


i think what makes the TOP TE more valuable is that there are only so many of them out there.


so no one sees any advantage of putting a team like this together?

think about it this way... Last season Graham was the 7th highest scorer of RB/WR/TE... By taking Graham 3rd you would have given 4 teams an advantage(without counting QBs)... Even the elite TEs do not outscore the elite WRs or the elite RBs... So don't pick them only for the advantage at position...

I would still take him in the first round, but I would take him with at best the 9th pick... there you can at least give yourself control of the 2nd round... by taking Graham 3rd, you are relying too much on what others do, to hope you get what you want in the 2nd round... That is just too risky and too much of an advantage to the other teams...

Can you win by picking graham 3rd?? of course!! but you are certainly digging a hole that will be hard to climb out of...