Tools on draft day...

[SteelersPride]

laptop, few websites.....a brain.........thats all

 

[Bandit]

Bandit, are you out there?



Because you wrote this I've done a lot of number-crunching. (I hate you BTW.) I copied the entire NFL schedule and pasted it in Excel. Then I extracted the fantasy points allowed from ESPN for each position (QB, RB, WR & TE) and pasted this into Excel as well. For example: The Colts on average allowed 20.4 fantasy points to opposing QB.

​

The combination of the NFL schedule and the OPRK ("Opponents Rank" above) gives me a basis to calculate how each position will do this season on each individual NFL team.

Just taking it alphabetically, this season Atlanta will face defenses that allowed an average of 19 fantasy points to the QB last year. Allowed 24.9 points to RB; 38.7 to WR; and 12 points to TE.

Now I'm stuck. (Once again, I hate Bandit.) Because I'm not sure what calculation I should use for each player to bounce it off of this data?

In other words, how do I factor Matt Ryan's numbers into the fact that his schedule this season could see him averaging 24.9 points a game?

I have "usage" numbers, which is a percentage of how each player is used on their respective team based on all offensive plays called - both rushing & receiving. But I'm not sure I can just apply a percentage formula against the ORPK. I must be missing a formula?

Maybe I need to sleep on it? Is there a mathematician in the house?

Ah yes Joe, a man after my own heart. Okay, so this is the part that comes from the tiering and rankings that I use for players. The base number that you use is completely arbitrary, at least it is on my part. I just tier the qb's and let's say Ryan ranks in the 4th tier of quarterbacks I use, all 4th tier quarterbacks start with a base score of 19. I suppose you could take a guy's projected total for the year from ESPN and divide it by 16, which in Ryan's case would be 317 points divided by 16 which is 19.81 points a game. Either way, then you have to take every teams points against quarterbacks and divide that by 32. So you said that the Falcons will face teams that allow 19 fantasy points to qb's next year. Add up that same number of average points against for each team. I am just going to say that the total points against for each team adds up to 573 (I am completely making this number up). You take that 573 and divide it by 32 which gives you 17.9 as the average for the league. Since the will face defenses that average 19 points per game, you would divide 19 by 17.9 which is 1.06. Then you would multiply Matt Ryan's base score (19.81) by that factor to get his adjusted average score against his schedule which would be 19.81 x 1.06 = 21.0. Hope this helps. If you would like me to email you the spreadsheet I did last year, let me know and I'd be happy to. The way I do it is slightly different and I can go into a lot more detail if you would like me to.

 

[TREFF]

My lord Joe/Bandit... your turning this into work

 

[averagejoe]

My lord Joe/Bandit... your turning this into work

Nah. This is the way I enjoy FF. Or as Albert Einstein said: "[FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]Pure mathematics is, in its way, the poetry of logical ideas." [/FONT][FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]And I don't know who this person is, but S. Gudder is quoted as saying: [/FONT][FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]"[/FONT][FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]The essence of mathematics is not to make simple things complicated, but to make complicated things simple."[/FONT]

 

[SteelersPride]

i cant fathom that much of an advantage from all that

 

[wilwhite]

I'm not a mathematician, but my father is (some of what he did was predictive analysis of nuclear waste disposal sites), so I'll try to channel him....

Uh-oh.

Just looking at that Colts list he'd probably discard any predictive value there, because (a) small sample set, and (b) tremendous variability. Standard deviation for that set is 13, so he'd point out that the best you can say about any prediction about any future QBs points versus those same Colts is that there's a two-thirds chance it will be between 7 and 33.

If you then told him that they're not really the same Colts, and they're not facing the same teams, he wouldn't even have any confidence in that.

He'd also notice that three times the Colts faced a team twice, with the following results: home 20/road 2; home 2/road 44; home 17/road 16.

As a conclusion, he'd say, "Since these reflect real events, there was presumably additional information determining these outcomes, but that information, if it was ever obtainable, is absent here."

 

[TREFF]

Nah. This is the way I enjoy FF. Or as Albert Einstein said: "[FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]Pure mathematics is, in its way, the poetry of logical ideas." [/FONT][FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]And I don't know who this person is, but S. Gudder is quoted as saying: [/FONT][FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]"[/FONT][FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]The essence of mathematics is not to make simple things complicated, but to make complicated things simple."[/FONT]

Well that I can understand and respect, but to a guy who was just pretty good at math. .up until trigonometry that is, it seems like frigging work. .lol

 

[Barilko]

Ah yes Joe, a man after my own heart. Okay, so this is the part that comes from the tiering and rankings that I use for players. The base number that you use is completely arbitrary, at least it is on my part. I just tier the qb's and let's say Ryan ranks in the 4th tier of quarterbacks I use, all 4th tier quarterbacks start with a base score of 19. I suppose you could take a guy's projected total for the year from ESPN and divide it by 16, which in Ryan's case would be 317 points divided by 16 which is 19.81 points a game. Either way, then you have to take every teams points against quarterbacks and divide that by 32. So you said that the Falcons will face teams that allow 19 fantasy points to qb's next year. Add up that same number of average points against for each team. I am just going to say that the total points against for each team adds up to 573 (I am completely making this number up). You take that 573 and divide it by 32 which gives you 17.9 as the average for the league. Since the will face defenses that average 19 points per game, you would divide 19 by 17.9 which is 1.06. Then you would multiply Matt Ryan's base score (19.81) by that factor to get his adjusted average score against his schedule which would be 19.81 x 1.06 = 21.0. Hope this helps. If you would like me to email you the spreadsheet I did last year, let me know and I'd be happy to. The way I do it is slightly different and I can go into a lot more detail if you would like me to.

My Dad was a top notch engineer and math runs through all my family's blood..well maybe not the Dragons

and he would have looked at all of this and said...

F it i'm going golfing...

 

[averagejoe]

As a conclusion, he'd say, "Since these reflect real events, there was presumably additional information determining these outcomes, but that information, if it was ever obtainable, is absent here."

I think that same approach would rule out Montee Ball going 2nd overall; Foles being the 5th or 6th QB taken; and Watkins being drafted at all. Those wacky mathematicians.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

laptop, few websites.....a brain.........thats all

That's more than most start out with.......................

 

[Sam Sportboy]

"Please hit Charles, Please hit Charles"

 

[averagejoe]

Still working on the formula, but you guys may be interested in the preliminary results. I won't bore you with all of the equations involved thus far, but of the players that did not change teams, this is the top RB based on their defensive matchups for 2014:

Matt Forte
LeSean McCoy
Jamaal Charles
DeMarco Murray
Marshawn Lynch
Adrian Peterson
Giovani Bernard
Eddie Lacy
Le'Veon Bell
Reggie Bush
Ray Rice
Zac Stacy

Here's where it gets interesting for all of you Montee Ball bandwagoners... if I apply Moreno's percentages of carries and receptions from 2013, Ball ends up tied with Stacy. Like I said, it's a work in progress.

 

[wilwhite]

Hey, Joe -

What would this look like using the 2012 numbers going into 2013?

I don't think ESPN lets you go back to prior years, but this link has the data:

Running Back Stats By Team: 2012 FF Points Allowed, Regular Season - FF Today

(If you click the link for each team they have game logs with data per-RB that faced them, if you really want to get into detail.)

 

[averagejoe]

Thanks for finding that Wil. I'll have to bookmark that reference!

 

[Brees#1]

I have used FF today the last few years but usually for the kickers.

 

[Texas Jefe]

You guys are all trying too dammed hard. Me and this guy know how to do it it. One list with bye weeks to keep track of who's been taken and where you need backups is all you need

key point. getting multiple big point scorers with same bye week has bit me in the arse a time or two.

 

[wilwhite]

As a conclusion, he'd say, "Since these reflect real events, there was presumably additional information determining these outcomes, but that information, if it was ever obtainable, is absent here."

I think that same approach would rule out Montee Ball going 2nd overall; Foles being the 5th or 6th QB taken; and Watkins being drafted at all. Those wacky mathematicians.

Would it? For my money, drafting behavior is one of the few variables that stay consistent in FF.