Series Thread: RANGERS vs BOSOX 4/7-4/9

[TheRangerDude]

Yes. And letting JP hit with a chance to go ahead and leaving choice and adduci on the bench.

Great point on JPA.. 2B, C, and DH should all be used to get Choice or Adduci ABs. Although, I have to admit I have been pretty satisfied with out 2B rotation so far.

 

[romeo212000]

Great point on JPA.. 2B, C, and DH should all be used to get Choice or Adduci ABs. Although, I have to admit I have been pretty satisfied with out 2B rotation so far.

Lots of babip at second base. In either case, the offense is killing us, but wash isn't doing anything to help either.

 

[Justinkm83]

Lefty on the mound tomorrow. Mitch actually contributed tonight so we will see what Wash does. I would give Choice the start and hope he sparks us. I like RH hitters more in that park anyways.

 

[TheRangerDude]

You missed the point. JD put together a good team with intentions of fielding them all healthy. Sure he is responsible b/c the buck stops w/ him. 2B/ C are killing us and Profar and Soto will be a definite improvement when returning. This team tonight was never envisioned by JD therefore I can't tag him w/ the unknown. Now his mgr is a different story.

Actually 2B has been pretty good for us. Wilson has 5 hits in 8 ABs for a .625 AVG and Murphy has 4 hits in 15 ABs for a .267 AVG. Offensively combined they have a 9/23= .391 AVG (this may not count today). Murphy has also walked a few times too. Also, neither has made and error and contributed to our league most errors. Profar would have more range though. I agree on C. I wouldn't expect much more from Soto offensively but defensively I would. I still say as a GM, its your job to prepare for what ever the season might throw at you. Good GMs find a way to weather the storm, but I will give you that it is pretty large storm to weather. Way to early to judge this team though and they will get some people back soon which will help.

 

[jta4437]

Dioner Navarro was the one to sign. I wanted us to get him as soon as FA started.

Agree on this, pretty sure we were in agreement on this in the offseason before we got JPA

 

[jta4437]

Actually 2B has been pretty good for us. Wilson has 5 hits in 8 ABs for a .625 AVG and Murphy has 4 hits in 15 ABs for a .267 AVG. Offensively combined they have a 9/23= .391 AVG (this may not count today). Murphy has also walked a few times too. Also, neither has made and error and contributed to our league most errors. Profar would have more range though. I agree on C. I wouldn't expect much more from Soto offensively but defensively I would. I still say as a GM, its your job to prepare for what ever the season might throw at you. Good GMs find a way to weather the storm, but I will give you that it is pretty large storm to weather. Way to early to judge this team though and they will get some people back soon which will help.

Actually I would expect WAY more out of Soto, b/c thats how bad both JPA & Cheerios have been on offense

 

[TheRangerDude]

Actually I would expect WAY more out of Soto, b/c thats how bad both JPA & Cheerios have been on offense

Yeah, I guess you are both right on that. Our OBP from C very well might barely break .100. Even .220 is a vast improvement over that.

 

[TheRangerDude]

Lots of babip at second base. In either case, the offense is killing us, but wash isn't doing anything to help either.

What do you mean by lots of babip at 2B? From what I can see bibap= (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF). Since neither have HRs or SF, that will not change anything but I guess Murphy's 5 Ks will make a difference. It would actually make the babip higher.

AVG=.391
BABIP= 9/(23-5)= .500

I know this stat is supposed to help you identify flukiness but I really don't see how that works mathematically right now. I do agree though that some of the hits by 2B so far have been lucky... most of the IF ones and I don't expect them both to continue to produce at this rate.

I would be interested if anyone has any tid-bits they want to share on babip though. I get that subtracting out the K's and adding in SF would help identify balls were in play. Not sure why you would subtract HRs though. Maybe Romeo is referencing the pitchers BABIP? Or am lost or perhaps both

 

[jta4437]

What do you mean by lots of babip at 2B? From what I can see bibap= (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF). Since neither have HRs or SF, that will not change anything but I guess Murphy's 5 Ks will make a difference. It would actually make the babip higher.

AVG=.391
BABIP= 9/(23-5)= .500

I know this stat is supposed to help you identify flukiness but I really don't see how that works mathematically right now. I do agree though that some of the hits by 2B so far have been lucky... most of the IF ones and I don't expect them both to continue to produce at this rate.

I would be interested if anyone has any tid-bits they want to share on babip though. I get that subtracting out the K's and adding in SF would help identify balls were in play. Not sure why you would subtract HRs though. Maybe Romeo is referencing the pitchers BABIP? Or am lost or perhaps both

Simply stating that some of those hits have been squibbers and choppers that have barely been hits, thats all, you make that assertion by watching, not doing math

BABIP is simply a way to put a mathematical number on luck, its truly an imperfect stat, but still somewhat useful

But if you get a hit 50% of the time you put it in play, you're going to have a good season, unless you're Adam Dunn

I think my point is here, don't overthink it

 

[TheRangerDude]

Simply stating that some of those hits have been squibbers and choppers that have barely been hits, thats all, you make that assertion by watching, not doing math

BABIP is simply a way to put a mathematical number on luck, its truly an imperfect stat, but still somewhat useful

But if you get a hit 50% of the time you put it in play, you're going to have a good season, unless you're Adam Dunn

I think my point is here, don't overthink it

Thanks for the input... do tend to overthink things... that's what scientific research will do to ya. Still don't see the luck factor in the whole thing though... seems like infield hits should be involved. Seems like they are considered lucky by most. But like you say its imperfect.

 

[RevSader]

Just read Adam J Morris' recap. Sounds like Wash went totally brain dead on the road again. But hey least Frasor Cotts Soria and Ogando will be available when teen goes 7 and Texas is up by 5 on Boston.

 

[jta4437]

Thanks for the input... do tend to overthink things... that's what scientific research will do to ya. Still don't see the luck factor in the whole thing though... seems like infield hits should be involved. Seems like they are considered lucky by most. But like you say its imperfect.

The luck factor is seen when you see some of the hits these guys get, put bad wood on the ball and they just manage to dribble past a fielder

Its not perfect, b/c guys like Ichiro would do that 100 times a year, but it can help explain fluke seasons by traditionally bad hitters

 

[jta4437]

Just read Adam J Morris' recap. Sounds like Wash went totally brain dead on the road again. But hey least Frasor Cotts Soria and Ogando will be available when teen goes 7 and Texas is up by 5 on Boston.

It was nice to see Scheppers pitch a little better and work out of trouble, he's still got a ways to go, and may be a BP guy on Harrison's return

Rosin actually looked good, but then was left in too long, IMO

Figueroa was pretty solid today as well, minus the HBP, but even there he blew 2 fastballs by the guy first

Was done watching by the time Tolleson came in

 

[TheRangerDude]

The luck factor is seen when you see some of the hits these guys get, put bad wood on the ball and they just manage to dribble past a fielder

Its not perfect, b/c guys like Ichiro would do that 100 times a year, but it can help explain fluke seasons by traditionally bad hitters

OK, last question on this and then I will give it a rest. What I am not seeing is what in the equation measures when a player puts bad wood on the ball and they just manage to dribble it past a fielder. All I see is they eliminate HRs from the equation and then add points on your average if you K or subtract points off your average if you SF. That appears to be all they account for. So either K's or SF have something to do with luck?

 

[jta4437]

OK, last question on this and then I will give it a rest. What I am not seeing is what in the equation to calculate this measures when a player puts bad wood on the ball and they just manage to dribble it past a fielder. All I see is they eliminate HRs from the equation and then add points on your average if you K or subtract points off your average if you SF. That appears to be all they account for. So either K's or SF have something to do with luck?

It doesn't, it just gives you a measure that discounts K's and SF's, b/c I believe the league average BABIP is pretty constant

So by seeing the quality of the hits, factoring in things like ISO, you can make a judgement on whether a player is lucky

Take Darwin Barney, he's had years of solid BA's and terrible BA's, the years of solid BA probably coincided with years of abnormally high BABIP (compared to league average), then years of bad BA with years of below average BABIP,

Why? b/c he's not a good hitter and can only get high BA b/c of fluky fluctuations in BABIP, he has no other way to boost his stats b/c he doesn't have the power to make up for it, all of his other metrics, like ISO, were probably fairly constant outside of BABIP

So its not JUST BABIP, its combining it with other numbers, but BABIP is a pretty quick number to reference

**BTW I have no idea if this is the case with Darwin Barney, i just wanted to include a name in the example

 

[TheRangerDude]

It doesn't, it just gives you a measure that discounts K's and SF's, b/c I believe the league average BABIP is pretty constant

So by seeing the quality of the hits, factoring in things like ISO, you can make a judgement on whether a player is lucky

Take Darwin Barney, he's had years of solid BA's and terrible BA's, the years of solid BA probably coincided with years of abnormally high BABIP (compared to league average), then years of bad BA with years of below average BABIP,

Why? b/c he's not a good hitter and can only get high BA b/c of fluky fluctuations in BABIP, he has no other way to boost his stats b/c he doesn't have the power to make up for it, all of his other metrics, like ISO, were probably fairly constant outside of BABIP

So its not JUST BABIP, its combining it with other numbers, but BABIP is a pretty quick number to reference

**BTW I have no idea if this is the case with Darwin Barney, i just wanted to include a name in the example

haha at the **... thanks for the info. It makes much more sense now.

 

[jta4437]

haha at the **... thanks for the info. It makes much more sense now.

If it were easy anyone could do it, and thats why I can't do it, I just try and understand as best I can

Lucky for the internet or I'd be clueless, and I've had to read a lot just to get my very base and general understanding

But thats what makes baseball great, it really does combine and understanding of numbers and actually watching the games

And Darwin Barney just seems like a guy that would be effected by things like this

 

[jta4437]

BTW here's Darwin Barney of the last 3 full seasons 2011-2013

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

So I know it wont happen....but IMO, until everyone gets going... move Rios to the 3 hole.

With Choo & Elvis getting on the way they have been... and the way Rios's bat has started out - we could get another run or two per game. IMO

Moves Prince to 4.
Beltre 5.
Choice/Moreland 6.
Martin 7.
2B 8.
The black hole we call our catching tandem 9.

Yes, I realize that is 2 "easy" outs in a row (8 & 9)...but until everyone is clicking / gets healthy...its all they can do.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

So I know it wont happen....but IMO, until everyone gets going... move Rios to the 3 hole.

With Choo & Elvis getting on the way they have been... and the way Rios's bat has started out - we could get another run or two per game. IMO

Moves Prince to 4.
Beltre 5.
Choice/Moreland 6.
Martin 7.
2B 8.
The black hole we call our catching tandem 9.

Yes, I realize that is 2 "easy" outs in a row (8 & 9)...but until everyone is clicking / gets healthy...its all they can do.

I am okay with that and actually Wilson has been getting on base. Maybe we should let him play 2-3 games in a row while he has the hot bat. Once he slows down we can alternate games again.