So who wins the SB

[HammerDown]

Pretty interesting.

 

[TDs3nOut]

How the Super Bowl XLVIII Outcome Will Impact Player/Coach Conventional Wisdom - SportsPickle | SportsPickle

An actual serious and rather accurate article by Sports Pickle.

Nice illustrations of what psychologist call the recency bias, which is basically weighting too heavily the most recent evidence at the expense of a larger, more informative body of evidence. I'm not sure how serious the person who wrote that piece is, but it only accurately describes exceedingly simplistic ways of interpreting what happens in the game tomorrow.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

Those rankings are total defense which is not very relevant when evaluating the overall effectiveness of a defense. All you Seattle fans keep falling on total defense when the relevant stat is SCORING DEFENSE as in ppg allowed. Bunch of noobs.

NE was #10 and SD was #11.

A good team who has a good offense is typically playing from a lead and can afford to give up a lot of passing yards and even rushing yards in the 3rd and 4th quarter, like Denver, and then get stingy in the redzone, like Denver.

I don't care about the amount of points the Chargers & Patriots gave up. Both teams had AWFUL secondaries. The #1 need for the Chargers is at CB. That's why they're going to target the position during the draft & free agency. As far as I'm concerned the only solid DB on the Chargers is Weddle & the only one on the Patriots is Talib. If you want to beat the Broncos you have to get to Manning. You have to make him move around in the pocket. That means you better have a good secondary. Fortunately for the Seahawks they do.

 

[ram29jackson]

Pretty interesting.

[MEDIA=twitter]429714941654740992[/MEDIA]

context..those defenses/teams had better QBs and better offenses and better coaching in those match ups. It didn't have that much to do with being a better defense over all

 

[TDs3nOut]

Pretty interesting.

[MEDIA=twitter]429714941654740992[/MEDIA]

I read an article that discussed the history of top ranked offenses versus top ranked defenses in the SB, with the latter coming out one top three of the four times that two such teams have met. Perhaps it's simply that I'm a Broncos fan, but that small of a sample doesn't seem too compelling to me.

 

[RobToxin]

The only people who think this is serious and accurate don't know anything about the game.

It's serious and accurate in that this is how people will respond depending on who wins the game.

 

[RobToxin]

Nice illustrations of what psychologist call the recency bias, which is basically weighting too heavily the most recent evidence at the expense of a larger, more informative body of evidence. I'm not sure how serious the person who wrote that piece is, but it only accurately describes exceedingly simplistic ways of interpreting what happens in the game tomorrow.

Again, I think the accuracy is how the media will portray these teams and individuals based on who wins tomorrow.

 

[Morpheus]

I don't care about the amount of points the Chargers & Patriots gave up. Both teams had AWFUL secondaries. The #1 need for the Chargers is at CB. That's why they're going to target the position during the draft & free agency. As far as I'm concerned the only solid DB on the Chargers is Weddle & the only one on the Patriots is Talib. If you want to beat the Broncos you have to get to Manning. You have to make him move around in the pocket. That means you better have a good secondary. Fortunately for the Seahawks they do.

What?



Points given up is the most important thing in determining the outcome of the game!

A good team can have a weakness and still win football games. YOu can give up a lot of passing yards but when you get in the redzone, that field shrinks and along with it the passing lanes and room for receivers to get open. Too much traffic.

Case in point, the Seahawks have a very poor passing game yet still won the # 1 seed and the NFC championship. They overcame that weakness witha solid running game and good defense.

And good luck getting to Manning. Seattle has a great secondary,I give them that,but they have yet to face a psssign attakc as good as this. They play mostly zone coverage and Manning will pick that apart. Denver simply has too many weapons on offense for Seattle to cover. They can't cover everyone, contrary to every Seattle fans opinion and their pass rush will be less effective because Manning gets rid of the ball so quickly and they won't be able to substitute as much as they usually do to keep that D-line fresh becuase Manning will run the hurry up and not allow them to.

It's a surgeon against a sledgehammer and the surgeon is much smarter at finding the precise place to cut to be more effective.

 

[Morpheus]

Again, I think the accuracy is how the media will portray these teams and individuals based on who wins tomorrow.

Well then you would be accurate in stating they will jump to conclusions based on only recent history and not the whole body of evidence.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

What?



Points given up is the most important thing in determining the outcome of the game!

A good team can have a weakness and still win football games. YOu can give up a lot of passing yards but when you get in the redzone, that field shrinks and along with it the passing lanes and room for receivers to get open. Too much traffic.

Case in point, the Seahawks have a very poor passing game yet still won the # 1 seed and the NFC championship. They overcame that weakness witha solid running game and good defense.

And good luck getting to Manning. Seattle has a great secondary,I give them that,but they have yet to face a psssign attakc as good as this. They play mostly zone coverage and Manning will pick that apart. Denver simply has too many weapons on offense for Seattle to cover. They can't cover everyone, contrary to every Seattle fans opinion and their pass rush will be less effective because Manning gets rid of the ball so quickly and they won't be able to substitute as much as they usually do to keep that D-line fresh becuase Manning will run the hurry up and not allow them to.

It's a surgeon against a sledgehammer and the surgeon is much smarter at finding the precise place to cut to be more effective.

Not accurate IMO. Seahawks love to use press coverage. On the underneath routes they like man to man, for plays down the field, they will use zone, but I would hardly describe their defense as one that mostly use zone.

 

[RobToxin]

Well then you would be accurate in stating they will jump to conclusions based on only recent history and not the whole body of evidence.

They always do. Sports media may be the most short-attention-span group of people in the US.

 

[Wolverine830872]

Those rankings are total defense which is not very relevant when evaluating the overall effectiveness of a defense. All you Seattle fans keep falling on total defense when the relevant stat is SCORING DEFENSE as in ppg allowed. Bunch of noobs.

NE was #10 and SD was #11.

A good team who has a good offense is typically playing from a lead and can afford to give up a lot of passing yards and even rushing yards in the 3rd and 4th quarter, like Denver, and then get stingy in the redzone, like Denver.

If I agreed with you then we both would be wrong. The LEAST relevant way to judge a defense is by using the scoring defense ranking. When Eli and Schaub are throwing all of those pick sixes it would be pretty hard for any defense in the league to prevent those points, and I'm pretty sure the league would frown upon it as well.

 

[WizardHawk]

Thank god the game is actually coming tomorrow. I'm not sure I could take another week of this weak ass trolling and lame taunting. Seems you can get some rather good stuff between games if it is a one week window, but by the end of week two it's pretty much fizzled out to nothing but endless insults and nothing amusing or interesting at all.

Bring on the fucking game already.

 

[cdumler7]

Thank god the game is actually coming tomorrow. I'm not sure I could take another week of this weak ass trolling and lame taunting. Seems you can get some rather good stuff between games if it is a one week window, but by the end of week two it's pretty much fizzled out to nothing but endless insults and nothing amusing or interesting at all.

Bring on the fucking game already.

Something I think both Fan Bases can unite on! Game Time less than 24 hours!!

 

[darken65]

Thank god the game is actually coming tomorrow. I'm not sure I could take another week of this weak ass trolling and lame taunting. Seems you can get some rather good stuff between games if it is a one week window, but by the end of week two it's pretty much fizzled out to nothing but endless insults and nothing amusing or interesting at all.

Bring on the fucking game already.

Yes ,it must be hard for you to continue trolling and taunting! JK! . I have Denver with a slight edge in this game but still....good luck to the 'Hawks as well.

 

[Morpheus]

Not accurate IMO. Seahawks love to use press coverage. On the underneath routes they like man to man, for plays down the field, they will use zone, but I would hardly describe their defense as one that mostly use zone.

You don't know what your talking about.

Against the pass they play a Cover 3 "Zone" pass defensive scheme vs Spread Gun 11 Personnel, which Denver typically uses. It is one of the more basic defensive schemes in the field in the Cover 3 scheme, basically a high school defense in its simplicity.

Denver will use bunch formations and crossing routes to try and counter the press at the line.


The use this same basic defensive formation against the run and they will bring the strong safety Chancellor up to create an 8 man box against the run.

They will press the receiver off the LOS to disrupt their timing, but this defense relies on aggressiveness and trying to dominate physically. They want to intimidate their opponent and put pressure on the QB to disrupt his timing and not let him make his reads.

This has worked pretty well this year because of the talent in the Seattle secondary has been able to limit the production of a primary WR or a good pass catching TE like Jimmy Graham and you take away a passing games best weapon.


The problem I see the Seahawks having with Denver is the Broncos have ProBowl caliber weapons at EVERY skill position. WR, TE, RB they are not going to be able to double team every one of them.

Someone is getting open and Mannng will pick a zone cover scheme apart.

Denver's receivers are bigger, more athletic and more physical than most of the receivers the Seahawks DBs have faced this year. Even Welker is a threat for his size.

Seattle may limit some of what Denver does so well but there is no way they are shutting them down.

Denver can run as well as they pass. Moreno has almost the same production from scrimmage in yards and 1 less TD than Lynch, and add Montee Ball is a goal line threat.

The real key to this game is the LOS. Can Denver stop the Seattle running game and can Seattle get to Manning with a 4 man rush?

Seattle rotates the D line to keep them fresh but Mannign will limit their ability to substitute with the hurry up fast paced offense and Denver's O-line has been great at pass protection.

Denver also is statistically as good against the run as Seattle for the regular season (both tied at #7 in rushing Defense) and has been better in the post season than Seattle against very good RB (Matthews and Blount).

Whoever wins the battle of the trenches will be able to execute their game plan better and whoever protects the football, has the upper hand here.

If you break down all 3 phases, Denver has a much better QB and passing game.

Running games are basically even with Lynch the more dangerous back at the 2nd level but not the fastest or most dangerous in the open field like Moreno.

Run defense is even.

Pass defense an edge to Seattle but they have not faced as potent of a passing attack this yet.

Bottom line, can Denver stop Lynch which is what teh Seattle offensive game plan is dependent on and can Manning pick apart the Seattle secondary?

 

[Midnightangel]

You don't know what your talking about.

Against the pass they play a Cover 3 "Zone" pass defensive scheme vs Spread Gun 11 Personnel, which Denver typically uses. It is one of the more basic defensive schemes in the field in the Cover 3 scheme, basically a high school defense in its simplicity.

Denver will use bunch formations and crossing routes to try and counter the press at the line.


The use this same basic defensive formation against the run and they will bring the strong safety Chancellor up to create an 8 man box against the run.

They will press the receiver off the LOS to disrupt their timing, but this defense relies on aggressiveness and trying to dominate physically. They want to intimidate their opponent and put pressure on the QB to disrupt his timing and not let him make his reads.

This has worked pretty well this year because of the talent in the Seattle secondary has been able to limit the production of a primary WR or a good pass catching TE like Jimmy Graham and you take away a passing games best weapon.


The problem I see the Seahawks having with Denver is the Broncos have ProBowl caliber weapons at EVERY skill position. WR, TE, RB they are not going to be able to double team every one of them.

Someone is getting open and Mannng will pick a zone cover scheme apart.

Denver's receivers are bigger, more athletic and more physical than most of the receivers the Seahawks DBs have faced this year. Even Welker is a threat for his size.

Seattle may limit some of what Denver does so well but there is no way they are shutting them down.

Denver can run as well as they pass. Moreno has almost the same production from scrimmage in yards and 1 less TD than Lynch, and add Montee Ball is a goal line threat.

The real key to this game is the LOS. Can Denver stop the Seattle running game and can Seattle get to Manning with a 4 man rush?

Seattle rotates the D line to keep them fresh but Mannign will limit their ability to substitute with the hurry up fast paced offense and Denver's O-line has been great at pass protection.

Denver also is statistically as good against the run as Seattle for the regular season (both tied at #7 in rushing Defense) and has been better in the post season than Seattle against very good RB (Matthews and Blount).

Whoever wins the battle of the trenches will be able to execute their game plan better and whoever protects the football, has the upper hand here.

If you break down all 3 phases, Denver has a much better QB and passing game.

Running games are basically even with Lynch the more dangerous back at the 2nd level but not the fastest or most dangerous in the open field like Moreno.

Run defense is even.

Pass defense an edge to Seattle but they have not faced as potent of a passing attack this yet.

Bottom line, can Denver stop Lynch which is what teh Seattle offensive game plan is dependent on and can Manning pick apart the Seattle secondary?

Probably as accurate and comprehensive an analysis as I've read. Good job.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

You don't know what your talking about.

Against the pass they play a Cover 3 "Zone" pass defensive scheme vs Spread Gun 11 Personnel, which Denver typically uses. It is one of the more basic defensive schemes in the field in the Cover 3 scheme, basically a high school defense in its simplicity.

Denver will use bunch formations and crossing routes to try and counter the press at the line.


The use this same basic defensive formation against the run and they will bring the strong safety Chancellor up to create an 8 man box against the run.

They will press the receiver off the LOS to disrupt their timing, but this defense relies on aggressiveness and trying to dominate physically. They want to intimidate their opponent and put pressure on the QB to disrupt his timing and not let him make his reads.

This has worked pretty well this year because of the talent in the Seattle secondary has been able to limit the production of a primary WR or a good pass catching TE like Jimmy Graham and you take away a passing games best weapon.


The problem I see the Seahawks having with Denver is the Broncos have ProBowl caliber weapons at EVERY skill position. WR, TE, RB they are not going to be able to double team every one of them.

Someone is getting open and Mannng will pick a zone cover scheme apart.

Denver's receivers are bigger, more athletic and more physical than most of the receivers the Seahawks DBs have faced this year. Even Welker is a threat for his size.

Seattle may limit some of what Denver does so well but there is no way they are shutting them down.

Denver can run as well as they pass. Moreno has almost the same production from scrimmage in yards and 1 less TD than Lynch, and add Montee Ball is a goal line threat.

The real key to this game is the LOS. Can Denver stop the Seattle running game and can Seattle get to Manning with a 4 man rush?

Seattle rotates the D line to keep them fresh but Mannign will limit their ability to substitute with the hurry up fast paced offense and Denver's O-line has been great at pass protection.

Denver also is statistically as good against the run as Seattle for the regular season (both tied at #7 in rushing Defense) and has been better in the post season than Seattle against very good RB (Matthews and Blount).

Whoever wins the battle of the trenches will be able to execute their game plan better and whoever protects the football, has the upper hand here.

If you break down all 3 phases, Denver has a much better QB and passing game.

Running games are basically even with Lynch the more dangerous back at the 2nd level but not the fastest or most dangerous in the open field like Moreno.

Run defense is even.

Pass defense an edge to Seattle but they have not faced as potent of a passing attack this yet.

Bottom line, can Denver stop Lynch which is what teh Seattle offensive game plan is dependent on and can Manning pick apart the Seattle secondary?

Yes the Seahawks play a cover 3 with a twist of using tight press coverage on the outside receivers. The quality of their corners have made this very successfull against some great receivers and take away the biggest knock on a cover 3, which is conceding easy passes, all while having Earl Thomas ( a very special safety) play deep and go to either side of the field as needed. This has been deadly effective for the Seahawks and has lead to many turnovers over the course of the season. All while allowing Kam Chancellor to either cover or provide run support as needed. Kam can cover fine, but it's his tacking that shines, his hits are ESPN highlight types of hits, his run support is special and receivers hate the idea of Kam laying a hit on them.

Seahawks LBs are all very fast and capable of covering TEs and RBs and really there hasn't been a case that I can recall, of either going off on them, all while providing excellent run support.

As for bunch formations and crossing routes. old hat to the Seahawks. They've seen them and defended them just fine.

Where I'll agree with you is that the battle will be won in the trenches, I like the Seahawks chances of winning that battle.

 

[Uhsplit]

You don't know what your talking about.

Against the pass they play a Cover 3 "Zone" pass defensive scheme vs Spread Gun 11 Personnel, which Denver typically uses. It is one of the more basic defensive schemes in the field in the Cover 3 scheme, basically a high school defense in its simplicity.

Denver will use bunch formations and crossing routes to try and counter the press at the line.


The use this same basic defensive formation against the run and they will bring the strong safety Chancellor up to create an 8 man box against the run.

They will press the receiver off the LOS to disrupt their timing, but this defense relies on aggressiveness and trying to dominate physically. They want to intimidate their opponent and put pressure on the QB to disrupt his timing and not let him make his reads.

This has worked pretty well this year because of the talent in the Seattle secondary has been able to limit the production of a primary WR or a good pass catching TE like Jimmy Graham and you take away a passing games best weapon.


The problem I see the Seahawks having with Denver is the Broncos have ProBowl caliber weapons at EVERY skill position. WR, TE, RB they are not going to be able to double team every one of them.

Someone is getting open and Mannng will pick a zone cover scheme apart.

Denver's receivers are bigger, more athletic and more physical than most of the receivers the Seahawks DBs have faced this year. Even Welker is a threat for his size.

Seattle may limit some of what Denver does so well but there is no way they are shutting them down.

Denver can run as well as they pass. Moreno has almost the same production from scrimmage in yards and 1 less TD than Lynch, and add Montee Ball is a goal line threat.

The real key to this game is the LOS. Can Denver stop the Seattle running game and can Seattle get to Manning with a 4 man rush?

Seattle rotates the D line to keep them fresh but Mannign will limit their ability to substitute with the hurry up fast paced offense and Denver's O-line has been great at pass protection.

Denver also is statistically as good against the run as Seattle for the regular season (both tied at #7 in rushing Defense) and has been better in the post season than Seattle against very good RB (Matthews and Blount).

Whoever wins the battle of the trenches will be able to execute their game plan better and whoever protects the football, has the upper hand here.

If you break down all 3 phases, Denver has a much better QB and passing game.

Running games are basically even with Lynch the more dangerous back at the 2nd level but not the fastest or most dangerous in the open field like Moreno.

Run defense is even.

Pass defense an edge to Seattle but they have not faced as potent of a passing attack this yet.

Bottom line, can Denver stop Lynch which is what teh Seattle offensive game plan is dependent on and can Manning pick apart the Seattle secondary?

We seldom double team. In fact we seldom scheme against any highly effective players unless we are playing AP and feel the need to bring Kam up front.

Expect to see Denvers outstanding TE to catch between 2-3 balls. That is the average we give up to the likes of Graham, Gonzalez, Olsen, and Vernon Davis.
We have absolutely no fear of big WR's. In fact we tend to own them. It is the little shifty guys like 83 that can cause problems, but when we hit him a few times, as we have already, he may end up having no interest in reaching out and catch a ball.
Not too much fear of your RB as he has a tough time breaking tackles and is not elusive.

We are almost at game time and I am looking forward to all of this posturing to end.

 

[Doublejive]

I think the Hawks will win by two TD's or more.

DangeRuss will go pass happy on the Bronco's D.