Overvalued/ Undervalued

[TKOSpikes]

I think Fred Jackson had more to do with Spiller's "lack of" production than C.J. himself.

 

[tlance]

Joe..Priest Holmes comes to mind. .as does Marshal Faulk, as great RB'S that didn't fully seize their initial opportunity. Perhaps they are the rare exception, but thats just two off the top of my head

Those 2 were both consensus top overall fantasy picks for multiple years. Just saying.

 

[tlance]

Wow a small first Joe i may not agree

Yes they do score Wr and Te the same..however as we are all painfully aware the Te spot is Graham and then the rest and you must put a Te in the line up every week
thus to get Mr Graham you need pick him mid to late 2nd or early third
wherein there will be plenty of Shorts -Williams etc etc in the middle rounds..to fill your 2nd and 3rd wr spots..

of course if you jumped on Mr Graham as i luckily did 2 years ago in my keeper league i get the big guy for a 7th rounder this year...

I am kind of in the middle on this one. I think Graham is clearly the top TE this year, but he is not in the same league as a healthy Gronk. If you split the difference between Graham's last 2 season's, he still creates an advantage at the TE position, but not a ridiculous one.

As an example, I would rather have Larry Fitzgerald and Jared Cook than Graham and Aaron Dobson (being drafted around the same time as Cook).

I think in many cases you would be better served to grab a WR or RB in round 3 and wait 2-6 rounds to fill TE depending on your target.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I am kind of in the middle on this one. I think Graham is clearly the top TE this year, but he is not in the same league as a healthy Gronk. If you split the difference between Graham's last 2 season's, he still creates an advantage at the TE position, but not a ridiculous one.

As an example, I would rather have Larry Fitzgerald and Jared Cook than Graham and Aaron Dobson (being drafted around the same time as Cook).

I think in many cases you would be better served to grab a WR or RB in round 3 and wait 2-6 rounds to fill TE depending on your target.

I do not consider that to be a good point... this is assuming Dobson is going to be starting for your team... generally speaking the low-end startingTEs are being drafted the same time as your bench players... so making a comparison is not valid... Drafting an elite TE allows you to be different than the rest of the league, and for the most part a 3rd round WR is not much different than a 7th round WR...

 

[tlance]

I do not consider that to be a good point... this is assuming Dobson is going to be starting for your team... generally speaking the low-end startingTEs are being drafted the same time as your bench players... so making a comparison is not valid... Drafting an elite TE allows you to be different than the rest of the league, and for the most part a 3rd round WR is not much different than a 7th round WR...

Actually, if you draft an elite level TE, you either sacrifice a top 10 QB, quality RB depth or WR so you very well could be left with a guy like Dobson as a starting WR (currently ranked inside the top 120 on Y!).

If I am going to draft Graham or another big name TE, that is almost always going to be instead of a WR because I will not skimp at QB or RB. I think the comparison is valid.

Also, my point is based on value. If you draft Graham, you likely aren't taking a guy like Cook, but you will need to grab a WR at some point later on, whether he is your 3rd or 5th is irrelevant.

Cook is a start-able player available in rounds 9-10 which allows you to accumulate some serious depth elsewhere.

 

[tlance]

Also, I was pretty conservative on this. Graham is being drafted quite often in the 2nd round around the same time as elite WRs like Julio Jones and D. Thomas. Substituting Fitz assumes middle of round 3, which is later than Graham usually gets drafted.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Actually, if you draft an elite level TE, you either sacrifice a top 10 QB, quality RB depth or WR so you very well could be left with a guy like Dobson as a starting WR (currently ranked inside the top 120 on Y!).

If I am going to draft Graham or another big name TE, that is almost always going to be instead of a WR because I will not skimp at QB or RB. I think the comparison is valid.

Also, my point is based on value. If you draft Graham, you likely aren't taking a guy like Cook, but you will need to grab a WR at some point later on, whether he is your 3rd or 5th is irrelevant.

Cook is a start-able player available in rounds 9-10 which allows you to accumulate some serious depth elsewhere.

this is a very deep year for QBs... its one thing if you can get one of the tops, but assuming if you got one of the tops then you would not waste a pick to get graham, since that means you might not have any top RBs... so by picking graham, i would sacrifice on QB... also 120 is anywhere between the 9th and 13th round depending on how many teams you have in your league... you are not going to draft a kicker or defense in the first 9 rounds anyway. so you already can have 1 QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1 TE and 2 bench players before you cook or dobson would be on the table... so i dont see how dobson would ever be one of your starters unless you really go crazy with your bench...

 

[wilwhite]

Okay, this is some rarefied-air analysis coming up here; if you're not a fantasy diehard (or logic geek) feel free to skip to the next post.

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As an example, I would rather have Larry Fitzgerald and Jared Cook than Graham and Aaron Dobson (being drafted around the same time as Cook).

At first I agreed completely, because I'd rather start Fitz and Cook than Graham and Dobson. But then I realized I wouldn't start Dobson. So what would the effect really be?

Let's imagine in both cases I take Colston in the 4th. If I take Graham instead of Fitz I'd have to make up for that other starting WR later - say the 7th. Say I take T.Y. Hilton. Then (as starters) we'd be looking at Fitz/Colston/Cook versus Colston/Hilton/Graham.

If I wait to take Cook later, then in the 7th I get to pick a top bench guy, which might still be Hilton (say we're using a flex and I took 3 RBs already).

So then it's Fitz/Colston/Cook with Hilton on the bench vs. Colston/Hilton/Graham with Dobson on the bench.

Per CBS projections:

• Fitz (176.4)/Colston (155.4)/Cook (99.6) = 431.2 FF points on the season (and 133.8 on the bench in Hilton)
• Colston (155.4)/Hilton (133.8)/Graham (161.0) = 450.0 FF points on the season (and 99.0 on the bench in Dobson)

So taking Fitz/Cook over Graham/Dobson costs you in starters, because Graham is farther ahead of Cook than Fitz is ahead of Hilton. The advantage of waiting for Cook is on the bench.

Bench players are there because they'll probably be used - so let's include a third of the bench WRs points (44.6 for Hilton, 33.0 for Dobson), which gives us:

• Fitz/Colston/Cook/(Hilton): 475.8
• Colston/Hilton/Graham/(Dobson): 483.0

The difference is so small that it's completely in the noise, especially since these are only projections.

So Graham is going exactly where he should be based on projections. He's only overvalued (or undervalued) if you think the projections are way off.​

---

To boil it down:

If you wait for a 10th-round starting TE, you end up leaving your 7th-round pick on the bench, which offsets the advantage (unless you can outsmart the projections).

 

[wilwhite]

(If you want to plug in Demaryius instead of Fitz, tack on 8.4 FF points to the projection; so 484.2 waiting for Cook vs. 483.0 taking Graham - still essentially the same.)

 

[tlance]

(If you want to plug in Demaryius instead of Fitz, tack on 8.4 FF points to the projection; so 484.2 waiting for Cook vs. 483.0 taking Graham - still essentially the same.)

I have to say:

at CBS projections. Anybody who projects that Thomas will score only 8 more points than Fitz is basing it off of pure assumption.


I hear you Wil, but that is oversimplifying it a little because Hilton will play roughly half the games during bye-weeks, injury replacement or match-up starts. There is nothing worse then being locked in to a mediocre starter with a bad match-up, which happens when you lack depth. I think that 35 point gap between bench WRs is pretty valuable and that you will get about half of those points over the course of the season, making the projection difference almost 0.

I owned Graham in 2 leagues last year and it wasn't all that fun. His numbers were good, but he produced quite a few duds and Brees spreads the ball around as much as any QB in the league. With all the potential break-out guys who are going undrafted in most leagues, I think the gap between Graham and the rest of the TEs will narrow further.

As for the QB thing, all my leagues have 12 or more teams. If your first pick is at the end of round 1, you take a serious risk by not drafting your QB in round 4. In almost every mock draft I have done, the guys at the back of the top 12 (Stafford and Romo) go off the board in round 5. You may be able to wait in expert leagues, but if you wait too long you may have to ride with Eli Manning. It could be worse I guess, but I want more upside.

 

[wilwhite]

I actually thought counting a main bench guy starting a third of your games was kind of a lot. (That's probably another analysis worth doing.)

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I have to say:

at CBS projections. Anybody who projects that Thomas will score only 8 more points than Fitz is basing it off of pure assumption.


I hear you Wil, but that is oversimplifying it a little because Hilton will play roughly half the games during bye-weeks, injury replacement or match-up starts. There is nothing worse then being locked in to a mediocre starter with a bad match-up, which happens when you lack depth. I think that 35 point gap between bench WRs is pretty valuable and that you will get about half of those points over the course of the season, making the projection difference almost 0.

I owned Graham in 2 leagues last year and it wasn't all that fun. His numbers were good, but he produced quite a few duds and Brees spreads the ball around as much as any QB in the league. With all the potential break-out guys who are going undrafted in most leagues, I think the gap between Graham and the rest of the TEs will narrow further.

As for the QB thing, all my leagues have 12 or more teams. If your first pick is at the end of round 1, you take a serious risk by not drafting your QB in round 4. In almost every mock draft I have done, the guys at the back of the top 12 (Stafford and Romo) go off the board in round 5. You may be able to wait in expert leagues, but if you wait too long you may have to ride with Eli Manning. It could be worse I guess, but I want more upside.

Tiance, it definitely sounds like it is more that you are biased against graham, its not that you dont like the risk of taking an elite player, it is just that you dont think graham is all that better...

 

[TREFF]

Those 2 were both consensus top overall fantasy picks for multiple years. Just saying.

But Priest wasn't during his time in Baltimore, wasn't a fantasy stud *or NFL stud) until he bloomed in KC...nor was Faulk during his time in INDY..maybe the last season, But the became the hands down #1 for about three years in StL.

Still applies

 

[TREFF]

I %190 back Tlance up on the great Graham (cracker?) debate. It'd be different if Graham was hands down, no debate about it, going to outscore every other TE by 8-12 pts a week..but he won't. There are a small handful of TE's out there that will be close enough to make his perceived advantage over them be smaller than what an elite WR will do over sone guy in the 7th.

 

[tlance]

I %190 back Tlance up on the great Graham (cracker?) debate. It'd be different if Graham was hands down, no debate about it, going to outscore every other TE by 8-12 pts a week..but he won't. There are a small handful of TE's out there that will be close enough to make his perceived advantage over them be smaller than what an elite WR will do over sone guy in the 7th.

LOL. Me and one of my buddies in my home league call him Graham cracker.

Wil and Milk, I think you guys are taking projections too literally. Here is actual data from last season:

Graham (cracker) scored 152 points in standard formats. This was 9 more than Gronk (in far fewer games) and 11 more than Gonzo. There were 11 TEs who scored over 100 points. If you had the 8th best TE, you would only have been about 40 points behind Graham. This seems like a lot, but it only amounts to 2.5 points per week. Savvy drafters can usually make a profit off of mid to late round TEs by investing in the right ones further narrowing that advantage.

In contrast, the difference between the 8th best WR and the 25th best was over 50 points. While you can "hit" on a 7th round WR who may produce at a 3rd round level, there is a huge difference between these players. The odds of your 3rd round WR producing at a top 10 level are much better.

I would draft a healthy Gronk in the 2nd round because he provides a huge advantage over every other TE (including Graham). Gronk is not healthy, however, so I will not be selecting a TE until round 6 at the earliest. Graham is a very good player, but not the super elite beastly TE that some analysts market him as. That title applies to Gronk and Gronk alone.

 

[Barilko]

Holy crap guys Wil-Tiance-Spiller great insight as always Treff too--

im so glad im keeping Graham with a 7th round Keeper pick cause my eyes are spinning from all of your various insight...Great stuff

 

[averagejoe]

Actually, if you draft an elite level TE, you either sacrifice a top 10 QB, quality RB depth or WR so you very well could be left with a guy like Dobson as a starting WR (currently ranked inside the top 120 on Y!).

If I am going to draft Graham or another big name TE, that is almost always going to be instead of a WR because I will not skimp at QB or RB. I think the comparison is valid.

Nicely said. This is EXACTLY the point I was ambiguously eluding to when I spouted off about Graham being drafted as high as he is. NICELY DONE, tlance!

Love the follow up post with the stats!

Let me just add that one of Graham's biggest weeks last season came in week 17 when he racked up 28 points. (All of my leagues are done in week 16.) He had 4 games with less than 10 fantasy points (1, 0 , 7, and 9).

And thank you Treff.

 

[tlance]

Holy crap guys Wil-Tiance-Spiller great insight as always Treff too--

im so glad im keeping Graham with a 7th round Keeper pick cause my eyes are spinning from all of your various insight...Great stuff

Now that is a great value. You get Graham at a Greg Olsen price.

 

[wilwhite]

If you split the difference between Graham's last 2 season's, he still creates an advantage at the TE position, but not a ridiculous one.

Here is actual data from last season:

Graham (cracker) scored 152 points in standard formats.

No changing the field mid-debate! (Splitting the difference gives him like 166.)

My point is there's no tactical reason to avoid Graham where he's going. With the numbers you gave at the beginning it's a wash - even a slight advantage to taking Graham. The reason to avoid him is if you think he won't get close to 160 and a late TE will get over 110, which means you think he's overrated because expectations are too high for him and too low for everybody else, not because 160 isn't enough of an advantage.

Me, I always think I can find a gem of a TE late who will get 120+.

Like Pitta.

 

[tlance]

No changing the field mid-debate! (Splitting the difference gives him like 166.)

My point is there's no tactical reason to avoid Graham where he's going. With the numbers you gave at the beginning it's a wash - even a slight advantage to taking Graham. The reason to avoid him is if you think he won't get close to 160 and a late TE will get over 110, which means you think he's overrated because expectations are too high for him and too low for everybody else, not because 160 isn't enough of an advantage.

Me, I always think I can find a gem of a TE late who will get 120+.

Like Pitta.

Me too. It was Graham for me 2 years ago.

If Graham was still there towards the end of round 3 and I am deciding between him and a WR like Vincent Jackson, there is a chance I might take him. In many drafts I have seen however, he has gone off the board before guys like D. Thomas and Julio Jones. No way I could ever endorse that.

I guess the tactical reason is the quality of replacement level players. Single starter positions (TE, QB) almost always have decent options on the free agent list. In leagues of 12+, the waiver wire WR you might be forced to start is probably not going to be very trustworthy.

If the numbers are close, and they are, I will usually opt for quality depth at WR and RB and select a possible breakout player from one of the middle tiers over the name brand TE.

It is a real pity about Pitta.