Sophmore Slump MYTH

[gowazzu02]

Great article.

The Myth Of The Quarterback Sophomore Slump - 12th Man Rising - A Seattle Seahawks Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.

 

[blstoker]

Ok, I wanted to look at this myself, so did some comparisons. I took every QB since 1980 who started 8 or more games as a rookie, and also started 8 more more games in his second season (Jim McMahon was the only exception as he started 7 of 9 games in the strike shortened 1982 season). There were 39, and this is what I found.

During this time these players had these averages
Stat Year 1 Year 2
G 12.6 13.7
GS 11.8 13.5
Rec 4.7-7.1 7.2-6.3
Comp 194.5 238.2
Att 352.0 409.8
% 55.3 58.1
Yards 2307.8 2798.1
TD 12.4 16.1
TD% 3.5 3.9
INT 13.2 12.3
INT% 3.8 3.0
Y/A 6.6 6.8
Y/C 11.9 11.7
Rating 71.5 79.6
Sack 27.8 28.7
Yards Lost 186.8 185.6
Comebacks 1.2 2.0
GWD 1.5 2.6
AV 6.9 9.1

In nearly every category, quarterbacks are better their second year than their first, in some cases not even close. Of the 39 QBs, I would probably say that only Warren Moon and Sam Bradford (and possibly Matt Ryan, if you want to consider his second year a slump) actually experienced a sophomore slump. So, history does seem to favor the rookies from last year, as they should have better seasons than they had their rookie seasons.

 

[Jikkle]

I think the "slump" aspect comes in when you expect a QB to take a big step forward but they barely do better than their rookie year.

To use Wilson as an example Hawk fans are happy with his stats factoring in that he's a rookie that had to split reps in TC.

Would they be as happy if he only threw for a couple hundred more yards, a couple more TDs, and took a few less sacks this season? His stats would be better but in the minds of a lot of fans they would see it as a "slump" or a somewhat disappointing season because they were expecting even more from him with another year in the same system, Harvin, and a full TC as a starter.

So the "slump" aspect exists but it's just comes down to perspective and expectations.

 

[blstoker]

Some interesting side notes to my research.

Rick Mirer was the first QB (from 1980 on) to start all 16 games of his rookie season without having prior professional experience (Warren Moon started 16 in 1984, but had played professionally outside the NFL).

David Woodley started 3 seasons for the Dolphins (1980-82) and posted a 24-10-1 record, before being replaced as the starter by Dan Marino.

Alex Smith had one of the worst rookie seasons for a QB in NFL history, but had to be removed from the list when I noticed he started only 7 games in 2005. Had he been able to stay on the list, he would have been one of the most improved QBs from year 1 to year 2 on the list.

5 QBs started as rookies, but for various reasons were not the starter their second season (Matt Stafford, Kyle Orton, Quincy Carter, Tim Couch and Chris Chandler). I felt that a slump meant that you were playing and not performing, so I excluded these players on the grounds they were playing.

Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton are the only 3 QBs to start all 32 games for their teams during their first 2 seasons. All three of the made the playoffs their second season.

Mike Pagel (0-8-1) Jack Trudeau (0-11) and Troy Aikman (0-11) were the only ones to not recieve wins their first year, but all three were significally improved the next season (Pagel 7-8; Trudeau 5-3; Aikman 7-8).

Ben Roethlisberger has the best 2 season record of the group, 22-3. By contrast, Jeff George's 6-22 is the worst (narrowly beating out Ryan Leaf's 4-14 and Jack Trudeau's 5-14).

David Carr was sacked 111 times (76 as a rookie). The next highest was Jake Plummer, 101.

Peyton Manning threw 8 more INTs than the next highest rookie, but only finished 1 ahead of Drew Bledsoe for the 2 year total with 43.

 

[blstoker]

I think the "slump" aspect comes in when you expect a QB to take a big step forward but they barely do better than their rookie year.

To use Wilson as an example Hawk fans are happy with his stats factoring in that he's a rookie that had to split reps in TC.

Would they be as happy if he only threw for a couple hundred more yards, a couple more TDs, and took a few less sacks this season? His stats would be better but in the minds of a lot of fans they would see it as a "slump" or a somewhat disappointing season because they were expecting even more from him with another year in the same system, Harvin, and a full TC as a starter.

So the "slump" aspect exists but it's just comes down to perspective and expectations.

Actually, if Wilson throws for 3300-3500 yards 26-30 TD and still had only 10 INTs, I would think the season was a great success. I have no illusions that we are a passing offense. I feel that Wilson can sling it around just fine, but the team philosophy isn't going to be that.

 

[dude82]

When we were talking about whether Wilson would only ever be a "game manager", I mentioned that as long as the Seahawks maintained their run-heavy style, Wilson was never going to put up the kind of stats that non-game manager QBs like Brady, Manning and Brees put up. The style simply won't allow for it, but it would be a shame if he was labelled a "game manager" with the negative connotation that comes with it because of that. The same thing applies here. It would be a shame if his season was considered a "slump" if he can't drastically improve his numbers because the team runs a run-heavy scheme and his attempts are somewhere in the neighborhood of what they were last year. Now, I personally think that his attempts can increase quite a bit without the Seahawks totally changing their style, but it's still going to put him far behind the QBs in pass happy schemes who don't receive the "game manager" label because their offense allows them to throw it a lot.

 

[TheDman875]

When we were talking about whether Wilson would only ever be a "game manager", I mentioned that as long as the Seahawks maintained their run-heavy style, Wilson was never going to put up the kind of stats that non-game manager QBs like Brady, Manning and Brees put up. The style simply won't allow for it, but it would be a shame if he was labelled a "game manager" with the negative connotation that comes with it because of that. The same thing applies here. It would be a shame if his season was considered a "slump" if he can't drastically improve his numbers because the team runs a run-heavy scheme and his attempts are somewhere in the neighborhood of what they were last year. Now, I personally think that his attempts can increase quite a bit without the Seahawks totally changing their style, but it's still going to put him far behind the QBs in pass happy schemes who don't receive the "game manager" label because their offense allows them to throw it a lot.

I think Wilson proved he can put up great numbers and put the team on his back when he needs to. The Atlanta game pretty much solidified that even though they lost.

Roethlisberger didn't put up godly numbers either his rookie season and the media was singing high praise about him for awhile there.

Regardless, now with Harvin on the team, the 1st down and 2nd and short play action just got that much deadlier and teams won't be able to stack the box to stop Lynch. They can play action, use the read option, or just pound the ball.

 

[Screamin12th]

Yeah there is no bigger Game Manager than Big Ben. The fact that many praised him and for awhile had him as an elite QB was a joke. Looking at Wilson and i see a much more capable QB in the long run as far as passing goes than Big Ben. Ben relies on his ability to hold onto the ball and shrug off sacks to create big plays. It's his ability or i really should say his size and strength that afford him time to allow his WR to get lost behind the defensive backs. Then its all pitch and catch. Wilson has a rare ability to throw WR open.

What i mean by that is this. Go back to the Atlanta game. 4th down near the 50 yard line and he throws a pass to a well covered Zach Miller. He throws the ball high and a little ob his back shoulder allowing Zach to use his body to shield the ball and secure the catch. That's just one of many examples from last year.

Wilson wont have the attempts of a Brees or Brady but he will do as much damage in those limited attempts. the Bradys and Peytons of the NFL use all those attempts to put up godly numbers but hold on, Russell put up 26 TD's at a pace of 15.1 passing attempts per TD. Lets look at some of the elite QB's from last year and see their numbers

Peyton 15.7 Pass Atempts per TD
Brady 18.7
Brees 15.5
Rogers 14.1

Rogers in my mind is the Best QB in the game right now, And this one state fleshes this out. Wilson is not far behind. I do not care if Wilson only throws for 150 yards per game if he is throwing for 2 to 3 TD per game. TD per attempt average is a huge stat not used enough, sure it can be misleading just like any stat but used to look at the WHOLE picture and you start to see a pattern. Anything between 14-17 attempts per TD is all pro quality production.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Seahawks fans don't even worry.... seriously.... Russell Wilson's biggest strength is his mental preparation and work ethic... He's gonna be ready for anything thrown his way...

 

[Perpetual_Beast_Mode]

Actually, if Wilson throws for 3300-3500 yards 26-30 TD and still had only 10 INTs, I would think the season was a great success. I have no illusions that we are a passing offense. I feel that Wilson can sling it around just fine, but the team philosophy isn't going to be that.

Very true about the Seahawks not being a passing offense. For those of you that don't know, we had fewer pass attempts than every other team in the NFL last year:http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/passingAttemptsBut we're an elite team, so I'm not complaining.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

I don't think I can pick any 2nd year QB to have a slump. Wilson, Luck and RGIII all understand the game and knows what it takes to put the time and effort in to be successful. Tannyhill will get better with the teams off season additions. The only way any of these guys slumps this year if that team gets devastated with injuries.

 

[FirebreathingMonkey]

I don't think I can pick any 2nd year QB to have a slump. Wilson, Luck and RGIII all understand the game and knows what it takes to put the time and effort in to be successful. Tannyhill will get better with the teams off season additions. The only way any of these guys slumps this year if that team gets devastated with injuries.

I think rg3 will "slump" by being a little more worried about his health mainly in the beginning of the year though hi first three or four games and what we are going to see by the end of the year is his statics are not as high as last year. Thus the experts will jump up and down all next year during the off-season saying what's wrong with Rg3.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

I think rg3 will "slump" by being a little more worried about his health mainly in the beginning of the year though hi first three or four games and what we are going to see by the end of the year is his statics are not as high as last year. Thus the experts will jump up and down all next year during the off-season saying what's wrong with Rg3.

That's a good point on RGIII. Sometimes I want to punch my tv when certain experts are on or run my car off the road when Mike Greenberg starts talking about the Jets for 10 mins straight.

 

[FirebreathingMonkey]

That's a good point on RGIII. Sometimes I want to punch my tv when certain experts are on or run my car off the road when Mike Greenberg starts talking about the Jets for 10 mins straight.

For me it's keyshawn johnson and Michael irvin that just get under my skin. I'm not sure I can recall one time they ever picked Seattle and they also seem to dismiss Seattle wins by talking about how the oppount lost the game. (mind you ESPN dose that all the time but when they do it it just really piss me off for some reason, my new eneny is Skip, no credit for New England or Washington wins, c'mon man)

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

For me it's keyshawn johnson and Michael irvin that just get under my skin. I'm not sure I can recall one time they ever picked Seattle and they also seem to dismiss Seattle wins by talking about how the oppount lost the game. (mind you ESPN dose that all the time but when they do it it just really piss me off for some reason, my new eneny is Skip, no credit for New England or Washington wins, c'mon man)

Skippy Bayless is a die hard Cowboys fan, so the Hawks beat down probably didn't sit well with him and just held that grudge the rest of the season. I can't take Skip seriously anyways because he came onto Philly radio sports mid day show pumping his chest and the host ripped him for what seemed like 10 minutes. It was some of the greatest sports radio i have ever listened too. It still bothered Skip the next day cause that was the worse mood I'd have ever seen him in on tv.