Merry Christmas to All

[msgkings322]

Justin has a very rare injury that doesn't heal without surgery. Rest isn't likely to make much difference from what I've read. And do I miss Williams? After watching Jenkins...yeah.

As for the difference between the NFL and the MLB playoffs -- night and day. In baseball anything can happen. In the NFL the dominant teams almost always win. Hence, the unlikelihood of the Niners getting there.

There is no dominant team this year. The Niners are very much on par with the other 11 teams.

 

[tzill]

I don't think I'm convinced they shat the bed six times this year. Like I said, the Patriots game is probably considered by Pats fans to be their own shitshow. Can't be both.

Not every loss is a shitshow. Teams lose games, even contenders. And usually for the reasons I bolded above.

I don't have a dog in this fight, I'm not a Niners fan. It's just weird seeing you be so Nolanesque here. Like Nolan, who magnifies every little flaw in his teams and assumes they will always be the worst they can be, and who never considers that other teams have flaws too.

You said it yourself, they are the most talented team. So don't they have as good a shot as anyone? Every team in the playoffs has flaws at least as great as the Niners.

Plus what gp said above.

Now, as I mentioned, you'll probably be right, because the Niners have at least a 75% chance of not winning the SB, and you'll get to say you told us so. That's the argumentative strength of pessimism. Just surprising coming from you.

A few misconceptions you seem to have:
1. There were six awful performances. Both Rams games, Giants, Hawks, Vikings losses and the meltdown in Foxboro. If you're "not convinced" then I suggest you don't follow the Niners very closely.
2. Who says a game can't be a double shitshow? I've no idea if the Pats fans consider the Niner game one, because they didn't get blown out or lose to a bad team.
3. Not every loss is a shitshow and not every shitshow is a loss. A loss to a bad team is a shitshow. Blowing a 28 point lead is a shitshow. Getting blown out is a shitshow. A regular loss to a decent team is not a shitshow.
4. No good playoff team that I'm aware of has a resume of six turd performances this year. Feel free to correct that perception.
5. I'm not being "Nolanesque," this team has consistently underachieved this year. Could they win three in a row against good teams without a shitshow? Yes. Is it likely? No. The sad thing is that they have the talent to win it all but will probably beat themselves. There's the frustration.
6. I wouldn't put their odds at 1/4, more like 1/7. If they play well and get beat I'll be satisfied. I really doubt that I'll be satisfied.

 

[msgkings322]

Reminder, tzill!

They just pretended their way to the NFC title game.

Seriously, happy for all you Niner fans on here. Definitely rooting for them.

 

[tzill]

Reminder, tzill!

They just pretended their way to the NFC title game.

Seriously, happy for all you Niner fans on here. Definitely rooting for them.

They played well tonight....on OFFENSE. The D was not very good. If they play like that next week, they will lose.

I just don't see them putting together three elite games in a row. They didn't all year, can't see it happening now.

Let's hope I'm wrong.

 

[Toolrulzz]

The Packers only had 352 yards of offense. The Niners gave up 24 points plus 7 on a garbage time TD. Rodgers went 26 of 39 for 257, 2 TDs and a pick. Can you really expect the D to do much better than that against that offense? I think you're shortchanging them a bit. The lack of a three game winning streak is a bit worrisome, but there's no better time than now to do it.

 

[Toolrulzz]

Actually, the D gave up 17 points plus a garbage time TD and then of course there was the pick 6.

 

[tzill]

The Packers only had 352 yards of offense. The Niners gave up 24 points plus 7 on a garbage time TD. Rodgers went 26 of 39 for 257, 2 TDs and a pick. Can you really expect the D to do much better than that against that offense? I think you're shortchanging them a bit. The lack of a three game winning streak is a bit worrisome, but there's no better time than now to do it.

The Niners' D entered the playoffs ranked second in the league in fewest points allowed and third in fewest yards allowed. Six of the starters were named to the Pro Bowl. This should be a dominant group. But there have been signs of weakness ever since defensive lineman Justin Smith went down with a torn triceps tendon during a late-season loss to the Patriots. Since then, it's looked like a fairly pedestrian squad, giving up points and touchdowns at a rate unseen since Mike Singletary roamed the sidelines of Candlestick Park.

Smith returned to the field against the Packers, but it still didn't look like the old 49ers' defense.Aaron Rodgers picked apart the secondary in the first half. But it still didn't feel like 49ers football when the Packers put up 21 first-half points, even though the first TD was scored against the offense.
Rodgers was carving them up and DuJuan Harris had nearly 50 yards on the ground. Most troubling, the team was unable to get any legitimate pressure on Rodgers using an honest, four-man rush. Smith was holding his own, but he wasn't wreaking the havoc he normally does, freeing up his sidekicks for sacks.

The 49ers gave up 352 yards, 31 points and 6.3 yards per offensive play. Not great stats. Looking forward, the defense will have to tighten up next week against either Seattle or Atlanta. You can't expect Colin Kaepernick to play like both Joe Montana and Roger Craig in every postseason game.

 

[Toolrulzz]

Rodgers was 5/10 for 96 yards in the first half. I'll take that every game. And 352 yards is pretty good against Green Bay and that total was inflated in garbage time as was their point total. Rodgers also only had 6.6 yards per attempt. That isn't good either. It seems as if you're trying really hard to find things to be displeased with. I understand tempering excitement a bit but that was a great win. The whole team played well.

 

[tzill]

Rodgers was 5/10 for 96 yards in the first half. I'll take that every game. And 352 yards is pretty good against Green Bay and that total was inflated in garbage time as was their point total. Rodgers also only had 6.6 yards per attempt. That isn't good either. It seems as if you're trying really hard to find things to be displeased with. I understand tempering excitement a bit but that was a great win. The whole team played well.

Just not true. The defense (especially the DL) did not play particularly well. I'm very pleased with Kap, obviously, but I don't see us boat racing the Falcons...their D is MUCH better than the Fackers. One sack yesterday, 3 hits. Not good. Aldon has disappeared.

 

[Epic Voidfield]

They played well tonight....on OFFENSE. The D was not very good. If they play like that next week, they will lose.

I just don't see them putting together three elite games in a row. They didn't all year, can't see it happening now.

Let's hope I'm wrong.

God damn it, who hacked Tzill's account!?

 

[Toolrulzz]

You can keep saying the D didn't play well, but that is simply not true. I was at the game and it seemed to me that they played really well (it's hard to make a really good assessment at the game sometimes). I watched the recorded game this morning and I was thoroughly pleased and impressed with the defense. Rodgers rarely looked comfortable and there indeed was a decent pass rush. That last garbage TD should not have even happened to inflate their point total. The PI call on Brown's second pick was awful. The D kept the Packers in check and it was impressive. I think you should give the game another look and you may feel differently.

 

[calsnowskier]

God damn it, who hacked Tzill's account!?

This convo with tz is worthless. He is WORSE than He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named when it comes to the Niners.

 

[msgkings322]

This convo with tz is worthless. He is WORSE than He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named when it comes to the Niners.

I know, right?

Completely different kind of fandom than how he roots for the Giants.

 

[SFAnthem]

Just not true. The defense (especially the DL) did not play particularly well. I'm very pleased with Kap, obviously, but I don't see us boat racing the Falcons...their D is MUCH better than the Fackers. One sack yesterday, 3 hits. Not good. Aldon has disappeared.

You cannot just judge pressure on sack and hits alone.

Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the game at avoiding the rush (and the packers still give up an unholy number of sacks)

Watch how many times Errant Rodgers had to throw the ball away or was off target because the rush came and disrupted the original play.

 

[SFAnthem]

The Niners' D entered the playoffs ranked second in the league in fewest points allowed and third in fewest yards allowed. Six of the starters were named to the Pro Bowl. This should be a dominant group. But there have been signs of weakness ever since defensive lineman Justin Smith went down with a torn triceps tendon during a late-season loss to the Patriots. Since then, it's looked like a fairly pedestrian squad, giving up points and touchdowns at a rate unseen since Mike Singletary roamed the sidelines of Candlestick Park.

Smith returned to the field against the Packers, but it still didn't look like the old 49ers' defense.Aaron Rodgers picked apart the secondary in the first half. But it still didn't feel like 49ers football when the Packers put up 21 first-half points, even though the first TD was scored against the offense.
Rodgers was carving them up and DuJuan Harris had nearly 50 yards on the ground. Most troubling, the team was unable to get any legitimate pressure on Rodgers using an honest, four-man rush. Smith was holding his own, but he wasn't wreaking the havoc he normally does, freeing up his sidekicks for sacks.

The 49ers gave up 352 yards, 31 points and 6.3 yards per offensive play. Not great stats. Looking forward, the defense will have to tighten up next week against either Seattle or Atlanta. You can't expect Colin Kaepernick to play like both Joe Montana and Roger Craig in every postseason game.

If you use garbage time stats and a pick 6 as a way to evaluate the defense, I don't what to tell you.

They weren't the shut down defense of last year and the offense immensely helped out the defense by keeping them rested. But watch the game again and you'll see how many plays the defense did their job.

That's against a former nfl MVP.

 

[Heathbar012]

Just not true. The defense (especially the DL) did not play particularly well. I'm very pleased with Kap, obviously, but I don't see us boat racing the Falcons...their D is MUCH better than the Fackers. One sack yesterday, 3 hits. Not good. Aldon has disappeared.

I disagree. The Falcons Defense is their biggest weakness, and only slightly, if any better than the Packs'.

Yes. The Packers D isn't as good as it was when they won the Super Bowl (go figure), but they played well enough to be 11th in Yards per Game this season (Atlanta - 24th). You can blame that on Matt Ryan's high-octane offense, but Green Bay had some high-scoring, many possession football games, as well. The Falcons snatched more turnovers (31 to 23), but they gave up almost the exact same number of PPG (26.2 to 27.1).

Also, we now know that the front 4 of the Niners is worse when Justin Smith has one arm (which we would have assumed prior to these games), but mostly because, yes, it causes Aldon Smith to disappear for long stretches. These are not insurmountable tasks, and if CK throws as many perfect balls as he did on Saturday, they could even win a shootout with Atlanta. The main focus should be on avoiding the big play from Jones, White or Jacquizz and minding Tony Gonzalez on 3rd and intermediate and near the goal line.

NFL Stats: by Team Category

NFL Stats: by Team Category

 

[tzill]

You can keep saying the D didn't play well, but that is simply not true. I was at the game and it seemed to me that they played really well (it's hard to make a really good assessment at the game sometimes). I watched the recorded game this morning and I was thoroughly pleased and impressed with the defense. Rodgers rarely looked comfortable and there indeed was a decent pass rush. That last garbage TD should not have even happened to inflate their point total. The PI call on Brown's second pick was awful. The D kept the Packers in check and it was impressive. I think you should give the game another look and you may feel differently.

I was also at the game and have watched it two more times since. The defense was borderline AWFUL through 2.5 quarters. If you're pleased with that, then so be it.

 

[tzill]

I know, right?

Completely different kind of fandom than how he roots for the Giants.

different sports, different teams. The niners D is schizophrenic. Awesome sometimes, awful others. You never know which is going to show up, and often both versions do. I've not seen too many SB teams with those types of defenses. Now, it may be that the niners can boat race the Falcons and the Patriots...but that ain't the way to bet.

 

[tzill]

You cannot just judge pressure on sack and hits alone.

Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the game at avoiding the rush (and the packers still give up an unholy number of sacks)

Watch how many times Errant Rodgers had to throw the ball away or was off target because the rush came and disrupted the original play.

I rewatched the game, twice. Rodgers mostly had all day back there, except for a stretch at the end of the 3rd/beginning of the 4th quarter. Aldon was in witness protection. He must be really hurt.

 

[tzill]

If you use garbage time stats and a pick 6 as a way to evaluate the defense, I don't what to tell you.

They weren't the shut down defense of last year and the offense immensely helped out the defense by keeping them rested. But watch the game again and you'll see how many plays the defense did their job.

That's against a former nfl MVP.

1. I rewatched the game twice.
2. My opinion has not changed: Culliver was awful, Aldon was absent, the DL got gashed by a crap RB, Rodgers was mostly unmolested, the only pressure came from Willis. The D looked better once the fackers had to play from behind, but prior to that didn't really look very good.
3. That "former NFL MVP" played like crap.

Again, anything is possible, but they've been erratic all year and I don't see that suddenly changing now.