2025 Season

[hattersgonnahate]

Overreaction of the day: Hopefully, this is enough data to convince the Orioles organization of the following...

1. Unfortunately, Morton might be done as an MLB-level pitcher, and thus his salary is a sunk cost. If they won't DFA him, he should at least be relegated to the mop-up role.
   
   
2. This team practically has no serviceable rotation right now. Therefore, they need to adjust the managing strategy and roster construction accordingly in the meantime:
   
   
   • They should "apply gerrymandering" by trying to win a majority of the games (say 4 out of 7), but not every single game. Specifically, that means alternating between trying to win close games at all costs (i.e. by burning the bullpen if needed), followed by "scheduled punt games" where 2-3 pitchers would be asked to finish the game regardless of the score in order to rest the remainder of the pitching staff. (To prevent destroying their arms, they would be asked to pitch to contact throughout the game and let BABIP generate outs using as few pitches as possible, even if that means giving up more hits / runs.)
     
     
   • As a corollary to the above, most of the bullpen would be converted to the long reliever role. In other words, everyone would be stretched out so that each pitcher can be deployed for multiple innings on a regular basis (say 2-3 innings every 3 games).
     
     
3. As much as I hate to sound like a broken record: They may need to replace Elias and/or Hyde ASAP (and possibly treat 2025 as a rebuilding year).

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Overreaction of the day: Hopefully, this is enough data to convince the Orioles organization of the following...

1. Unfortunately, Morton might be done as an MLB-level pitcher, and thus his salary is a sunk cost. If they won't DFA him, he should at least be relegated to the mop-up role.
   
   
2. This team practically has no serviceable rotation right now. Therefore, they need to adjust the managing strategy and roster construction accordingly in the meantime:
   
   • They should "apply gerrymandering" by trying to win a majority of the games (say 4 out of 7), but not every single game. Specifically, that means alternating between trying to win close games at all costs (i.e. by burning the bullpen if needed), followed by "scheduled punt games" where 2-3 pitchers would be asked to finish the game regardless of the score in order to rest the remainder of the pitching staff. (To prevent destroying their arms, they would be asked to pitch to contact throughout the game and let BABIP generate outs using as few pitches as possible, even if that means giving up more hits / runs.)
     
     
   • As a corollary to the above, most of the bullpen would be converted to the long reliever role. In other words, everyone would be stretched out so that each pitcher can be deployed for multiple innings on a regular basis (say 2-3 innings every 3 games).
     
3. As much as I hate to sound like a broken record: They may need to replace Elias and/or Hyde ASAP (and possibly treat 2025 as a rebuilding year).

I'd say bring up Gibson and keep Young up (because how much worse can he possibly be?) and put Morton in the bullpen. This might be considered blasphemy but at this point, I'd go out and sign Trevor Bauer. Nothing to lose at this point as far as I'm concerned. Keep Morton in the Suarez long reliever role until some guys get back and then dump him.
Yeah, something's got to happen behind the scenes. Hyde was fine to have during the rebuild years but don't think he's the guy to take this team to the next level. As for Elias, his philosophy of not drafting pitchers high is coming back to bite him with our minor leagues not really having a lot of depth there. This past offseason was the exact opposite of what this team needed.
It also looks like they've lost that passion that was there the past couple years. They seem to give up a lot easier compared to say two years ago when it felt like they were never really out of games. I'd say try to trade Mullins, Mountcastle and O'Hearn for something. Bring up Mayo and let him sink or swim at first. And I'd DFA Mateo because he just seems more like a detraction than adding much value right now.

 

[chillerdab]

Good plan, but Bauer is pitching in Japan now.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

I'd say try to trade Mullins, Mountcastle and O'Hearn for something. Bring up Mayo and let him sink or swim at first. And I'd DFA Mateo because he just seems more like a detraction than adding much value right now.

If the 2025 Orioles are still uncompetitive by July, one might be able to make an argument for a mini-rebuild:

• Maybe consider flipping even Eflin and/or Sugano for prospects as well if they are not going to be re-signed?
  
  
• Assuming that Rodriguez is out for the season, the Orioles might as well finish the second half of the season with a rotation of Kremer, Povich, Young, McDermott, and Rogers (in any order). They could all pitch badly, but as least there would be more upside simply due to the aging curve. (Plus, this would help the organization figure out whether they need to acquire a full rotation via free agency during the 2025-26 offseason, or a slightly smaller number of starters.)
  
  
• If they flip Mullins (and/or O'Neill, if he's expected to opt out of the contract after the 2025 season) as well: Would Dylan Carlson and/or some combination of Jud Fabian / Dylan Beavers be the stop-gap solution since it's probably too early to call up Enrique Bradfield Jr. (since he is still in AA right now and is apparently currently injured)?

(Side note: In other news, MASN is apparently offering a direct-to-consumer option starting today at a price of $19.99 / month, or $89.99 for the remainder of the season. The pricing is definitely fair relative to that of other existing alternatives, but the cynical part of me wonders if the on-field product itself for this year would actually be good enough for this to even make sense?)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

If the 2025 Orioles are still uncompetitive by July, one might be able to make an argument for a mini-rebuild:

• Maybe consider flipping even Eflin and/or Sugano for prospects as well if they are not going to be re-signed?
  
  
• Assuming that Rodriguez is out for the season, the Orioles might as well finish the second half of the season with a rotation of Kremer, Povich, Young, McDermott, and Rogers (in any order). They could all pitch badly, but as least there would be more upside simply due to the aging curve. (Plus, this would help the organization figure out whether they need to acquire a full rotation via free agency during the 2025-26 offseason, or a slightly smaller number of starters.)
  
  
• If they flip Mullins (and/or O'Neill, if he's expected to opt out of the contract after the 2025 season) as well: Would Dylan Carlson and/or some combination of Jud Fabian / Dylan Beavers be the stop-gap solution since it's probably too early to call up Enrique Bradfield Jr. (since he is still in AA right now and is apparently currently injured)?

(Side note: In other news, MASN is apparently offering a direct-to-consumer option starting today at a price of $19.99 / month, or $89.99 for the remainder of the season. The pricing is definitely fair relative to that of other existing alternatives, but the cynical part of me wonders if the on-field product itself for this year would actually be good enough for this to even make sense?)

If we are out of it and don't think that Efflin is going to want to come back, then I absolutely agree that we should get what we can for him. Anybody we trade, we absolutely need to build pitching depth. Because obviously, Elias doesn't believe in drafting pitching in the early rounds usually.
I figure that in the second half of the season, they'll hope that Bradish and Wells come back and I assume will slowly ease them into the rotation and don't want to risk a Means incident in which I feel like they brought him back too early. So I'd add them as people to add to the rotation. And maybe include Suarez at this point if he's able to come back by August. They're definitely going to need to add pitching in free agency and not these bargain basement guys like Morton. Elias needs to realize that it's okay to give up draft picks if we can get a top of the rotation pitcher or position player.
I would assume that'd be the case. Or the other option they'd probably consider is using Cowser (maybe Laureano as well) more in center and keep Kjerstad in the lineup a lot more. Agree about Bradfield as I think he won't be ready until next year.
I think at least it's a step in the right direction for the MASN+ stuff with people in the area that don't have cable or satellite (or Fubo). If the downward spiral continues, I doubt the subscription rate (at least for the month to month) will be all that high. But with there never really being a lot on during the summer months, I can see people plopping down the cash for the full season rate since it's still less than $1 a game. I'm just wondering what's going to happen to MASN for next season when the Nationals are free to explore other options.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

I figure that in the second half of the season, they'll hope that Bradish and Wells come back and I assume will slowly ease them into the rotation and don't want to risk a Means incident in which I feel like they brought him back too early. So I'd add them as people to add to the rotation. And maybe include Suarez at this point if he's able to come back by August.

My thought was that if any of Suárez / Bradish / Wells can return later this year (which is a big if), they should be mostly limited to a long reliever role for the remainder of the 2025 season as a means to minimize the risk of re-injury.

(And I mean this in not in the "mop-up" sense, but rather "relay team" sense-- for example, you could theoretically complete a game with the combination of 5 innings of Povich + 3 innings of Bradish + a short reliever. The roster spot can be created by dropping the worst reliever from the bullpen.)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

My thought was that if any of Suárez / Bradish / Wells can return later this year (which is a big if), they should be mostly limited to a long reliever role for the remainder of the 2025 season as a means to minimize the risk of re-injury.

(And I mean this in not in the "mop-up" sense, but rather "relay team" sense-- for example, you could theoretically complete a game with the combination of 5 innings of Povich + 3 innings of Bradish + a short reliever. The roster spot can be created by dropping the worst reliever from the bullpen.)

I think that would probably be the best solution for them. We saw yesterday that they're at least open to trying it since Morton hasn't been good since he got here. Don't want them risking further injury by throwing them into the fire sooner than they should.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

As the saying goes: "You can't win the division in April, but you can lose it." At this rate, we're probably looking at an almost-repeat of 2018... in the sense that the 2025 Orioles could end up with a bottom-3 overall record without even intentionally tanking (unless you believe in the conspiracy theory that Elias was avoiding free agency signings in anticipation of a lockout in 2027).

With that in mind, they might as well go into full rebuild mode for the remainder of the season by "calling up everyone" (which is already starting to happen to some extent) and start thinking about who they're going to take with a possible Top 2 draft pick (maybe a starting pitcher?)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

As the saying goes: "You can't win the division in April, but you can lose it." At this rate, we're probably looking at an almost-repeat of 2018... in the sense that the 2025 Orioles could end up with a bottom-3 overall record without even intentionally tanking (unless you believe in the conspiracy theory that Elias was avoiding free agency signings in anticipation of a lockout in 2027).

With that in mind, they might as well go into full rebuild mode for the remainder of the season by "calling up everyone" (which is already starting to happen to some extent) and start thinking about who they're going to take with a possible Top 2 draft pick (maybe a starting pitcher?)

Not so much free agency signings but I can see where people would think that the lockout would be a potential excuse not to lock up some of the guys long term. I feel like if the offense can find whatever mojo they lost in the middle of last season, they can at least tread water and be around .500 when some of these injured guys come back and hopefully be able to go on a run.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Not so much free agency signings but I can see where people would think that the lockout would be a potential excuse not to lock up some of the guys long term. I feel like if the offense can find whatever mojo they lost in the middle of last season, they can at least tread water and be around .500 when some of these injured guys come back and hopefully be able to go on a run.

Obviously, I wouldn't mind if the 2025 Orioles somehow manage to achieve a 2019 Nationals-like turnaround... It's just that I don't see it happening since the current injury situation is as bad as that of the second half of 2024 (if not worse). Besides, this team is projected to play 0.500 ball at best for the remainder of the season based on underlying talent level (Fangraphs / Baseball Reference), while other models such as BaseRuns suggest that their record should have been even worse. Hence the attitude that they might as well just go into "prepare for next year" mode early ("if you're going to miss the postseason anyway, might as well aim for dead last in order to speed up the rebuilding process").

[EDIT: Yikes, looks like Gibson might be even worse than Morton at this point... 4 homers in 12 pitches is basically batting practice. As I've said, they might as well just call up everyone since there is nothing to lose...]

 

[hattersgonnahate]

And the month of April is mercifully over. For that matter, the recent series against the Yankees (4-3, 15-3, 5-4) is a textbook case of what I meant by the "gerrymandering" strategy:

• You could theoretically win a majority of games despite a very negative run differential if you can find ways to consistently win close games by burning the bullpen, while strategically "punting" on the remaining games (especially if your starting pitcher is a lost cause).
  
  
• "Wouldn't this be unsustainable over the course of a whole season?" Maybe, which is why you would most likely also need to cycle through optionable pitchers as needed. (Yes, it's true that "players can only be optioned five times per season" before being exposed to waiver claims... But if most relief pitchers are considered largely interchangeable, allowing another team to claim one of them isn't the end of the world. The main downside of this approach is really the fact that it's too "cold and methodical," and I'd hate to be the player who's subject to the "Norfolk shuttle"...)

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Obviously, I wouldn't mind if the 2025 Orioles somehow manage to achieve a 2019 Nationals-like turnaround... It's just that I don't see it happening since the current injury situation is as bad as that of the second half of 2024 (if not worse). Besides, this team is projected to play 0.500 ball at best for the remainder of the season based on underlying talent level (Fangraphs / Baseball Reference), while other models such as BaseRuns suggest that their record should have been even worse. Hence the attitude that they might as well just go into "prepare for next year" mode early ("if you're going to miss the postseason anyway, might as well aim for dead last in order to speed up the rebuilding process").

[EDIT: Yikes, looks like Gibson might be even worse than Morton at this point... 4 homers in 12 pitches is basically batting practice. As I've said, they might as well just call up everyone since there is nothing to lose...]

After the game yesterday, it seems like they just can't get out of their own way. Gibson was at least better than that previous awful performance. The offense showed up but the bullpen choked a winnable game away. I guess the best news right now is that Efflin looked solid down in Aberdeen yesterday and Kittridge is starting to pitch again.