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averagejoe
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
WARNING: Gonna throw a lot out here to absorb.
As you may know, I tend to overanalyze some statistics.
Each year I make a chart of opponents based on yards allowed, points allowed, sacks and turnovers. Red is bad. Green is easy. This chart is below:
OFFENSES vs every DEFENSE on the schedule
I also use this same concept to make one for the defense, but I keep it simple and just use yards gained and points scored. Same, red is bad and green is easy. This chart is below:
DEFENSES vs every OFFENSE on the schedule
A couple of DST that are available and ranked fairly high are CLE and LAC.
As you can see by both charts, their offenses go up against relatively soft defenses, and their DST goes up against some non-juggernaut-type offenses.
If faced with a dilemma as to which DST to choose (as in this case, CLE or LAC), I will sometimes use the DST's Time-of-Possession.
Why?
The simple answer is if the DST is on the field too much because of their inept offense, the DST will tend to get gassed. Tired. That's how garbage yards get scored too.
In this case (based on 2021 team stats), CLE's DST was on the field a lot less than their offense. The Chargers? The DST was out there more.
If I haven't lost you, CLE should have a much better DST this year than LAC.
Why can I say that?
The charts show that both teams go up against some soft offenses and some soft defenses which helps both DST units.
The Chargers have a good offense which in theory should help their DST.
But in 2021, the Chargers DST was meh. Actually, depending on your league's DST scoring, they were 24th or so.
Not much has changed from last year to this year offensively for the Chargers.
Looking at their 2021 charts, the Chargers had even easier opponents than this year.
The Browns arguably have an upgrade at QB (if he plays more than half the year) and Chubb and Hunt are both healthy. Well, healthier for now.
Looking back at 2021, the Browns had a fairly easy schedule too. Plus their DST finished 15th in scoring (compared to LAC's 24th ranking).
Based on all this, a couple of sleeper DST might just be Carolina and the Giants.
As you may know, I tend to overanalyze some statistics.
Each year I make a chart of opponents based on yards allowed, points allowed, sacks and turnovers. Red is bad. Green is easy. This chart is below:
OFFENSES vs every DEFENSE on the schedule
I also use this same concept to make one for the defense, but I keep it simple and just use yards gained and points scored. Same, red is bad and green is easy. This chart is below:
DEFENSES vs every OFFENSE on the schedule
A couple of DST that are available and ranked fairly high are CLE and LAC.
As you can see by both charts, their offenses go up against relatively soft defenses, and their DST goes up against some non-juggernaut-type offenses.
If faced with a dilemma as to which DST to choose (as in this case, CLE or LAC), I will sometimes use the DST's Time-of-Possession.
Why?
The simple answer is if the DST is on the field too much because of their inept offense, the DST will tend to get gassed. Tired. That's how garbage yards get scored too.
In this case (based on 2021 team stats), CLE's DST was on the field a lot less than their offense. The Chargers? The DST was out there more.
If I haven't lost you, CLE should have a much better DST this year than LAC.
Why can I say that?
The charts show that both teams go up against some soft offenses and some soft defenses which helps both DST units.
The Chargers have a good offense which in theory should help their DST.
But in 2021, the Chargers DST was meh. Actually, depending on your league's DST scoring, they were 24th or so.
Not much has changed from last year to this year offensively for the Chargers.
Looking at their 2021 charts, the Chargers had even easier opponents than this year.
The Browns arguably have an upgrade at QB (if he plays more than half the year) and Chubb and Hunt are both healthy. Well, healthier for now.
Looking back at 2021, the Browns had a fairly easy schedule too. Plus their DST finished 15th in scoring (compared to LAC's 24th ranking).
Based on all this, a couple of sleeper DST might just be Carolina and the Giants.