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Fantasy DST 2022

averagejoe

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WARNING: Gonna throw a lot out here to absorb.

As you may know, I tend to overanalyze some statistics.
Each year I make a chart of opponents based on yards allowed, points allowed, sacks and turnovers. Red is bad. Green is easy. This chart is below:
OFFENSES vs every DEFENSE on the schedule
1660609596507.png

I also use this same concept to make one for the defense, but I keep it simple and just use yards gained and points scored. Same, red is bad and green is easy. This chart is below:
DEFENSES vs every OFFENSE on the schedule
1660609735209.png

A couple of DST that are available and ranked fairly high are CLE and LAC.
As you can see by both charts, their offenses go up against relatively soft defenses, and their DST goes up against some non-juggernaut-type offenses.

If faced with a dilemma as to which DST to choose (as in this case, CLE or LAC), I will sometimes use the DST's Time-of-Possession.
Why?
The simple answer is if the DST is on the field too much because of their inept offense, the DST will tend to get gassed. Tired. That's how garbage yards get scored too.

In this case (based on 2021 team stats), CLE's DST was on the field a lot less than their offense. The Chargers? The DST was out there more.
If I haven't lost you, CLE should have a much better DST this year than LAC.

Why can I say that?
The charts show that both teams go up against some soft offenses and some soft defenses which helps both DST units.
The Chargers have a good offense which in theory should help their DST.
But in 2021, the Chargers DST was meh. Actually, depending on your league's DST scoring, they were 24th or so.
Not much has changed from last year to this year offensively for the Chargers.
Looking at their 2021 charts, the Chargers had even easier opponents than this year.

The Browns arguably have an upgrade at QB (if he plays more than half the year) and Chubb and Hunt are both healthy. Well, healthier for now.
Looking back at 2021, the Browns had a fairly easy schedule too. Plus their DST finished 15th in scoring (compared to LAC's 24th ranking).

Based on all this, a couple of sleeper DST might just be Carolina and the Giants.
 

SteelersPride

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Honestly, every yeah a good number of fantasy d’s come out of no where. Strike early. I stream d alot unless i land on a top 5 unit.
 

femurov

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Honestly, every yeah a good number of fantasy d’s come out of no where. Strike early. I stream d alot unless i land on a top 5 unit.
Yup. My targets for D this year are the teams with weak opponents in week 1. Indy, Denver, Baltimore, Cleveland...
 

SteelersPride

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Yup. My targets for D this year are the teams with weak opponents in week 1. Indy, Denver, Baltimore, Cleveland...
Yep. Because im never a guy thats drafting a top ranked d. So i do the exact same. Who plays a terrible team week 1.
That being said, I do appreciate all the work that Joe puts into these posts.
Oh absolutely. His data is just awesome.
 

averagejoe

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Yup. My targets for D this year are the teams with weak opponents in week 1. Indy, Denver, Baltimore, Cleveland...
I think Baltimore is the DST to own. They play the worst offenses. They may rack up points without even trying.
 

femurov

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I think Baltimore is the DST to own. They play the worst offenses. They may rack up points without even trying.
I have 2 money leagues that draft a team D and I won't sniff the Ravens D. I live in Maryland, so them and the Redskins are the home teams. Sucks when I have players I really like from those teams because I know some homer will reach for him, but I guess it pushes a better player down the list.
 

TREFF

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Always great stuff Joe, regardless of whether I put any stock in last years' offensive/defensive numbers. Between personal changes, coaching changes, philosophy changes, far too many variables change for me to put much stock into any form of the preseason SOS rankings, offensively or defensively.
But, I am always impressed by Joe's work on these things. Excellent stuff
 

averagejoe

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far too many variables change for me to put much stock into any form of the preseason SOS rankings
Agree.
And thats another reason i make my own that do NOT include win/loss. I only use the stats that DST are scored on. Its a better gauge.
 
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