Fantasy Football News and Rumors

[SmokingMonkey]

Interesting to see that Adams led FF despite only 526 attempts by GB, which is pretty low.

Seems more like super-efficient QB play than anything else.

Adams was 4th in targets and yards last year, so yes, the 18 TDs vaulted him above the rest, and was crazy efficient (scored a TD on 15.7% of his catches last year, or 1 TD for every 6.4rec.... ) but he was still a top tier WR with the TDs stripped out last year and his catch rate wasn't obscenely higher than recent seasons either.

I think the WR1 finish was driven more by volume (28% target share) and the value of the targets Adams received (28 red zone targets converted into 14 TDs!)
- Nearing a 30% target share on GB's passes was just filthy last year, and a direct result of the chemistry he's built with Rodgers. Diggs and Hopkins were pretty much at an identical target share for their teams, all the other alpha WR1's were in the low 20% range.
- Almost 1/5 of Adams' targets last year were RZ targets....that's pretty damn wild. Diggs had 16 RZ targets and 5 TDs, Hopkins had 13 RZ targets and 2 TDs

and thank you for the discussion topic/research, nice to dig into something, even if it isn't useful. My money says that no matter who the GB QB is, someone will draft Adams within the top 5 WRs to come off the board when it's draft time.

 

[TREFF]

even if it isn't useful.

Everything is useful to at least SOME point

 

[TREFF]

How about-
Where will Adrian Peterson, L. Bell, A. Jeffrey, land, and will it matter when they get there?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

How about-
Where will Adrian Peterson, L. Bell, A. Jeffrey, land, and will it matter when they get there?

it's looking more and more likely that the answer to those questions are "it doesn't matter" and "no" for all of those players, at least from a fantasy perspective.

i guess there's a possibility AP or Bell come in and steal GL work for a team? not sure it'll be enough to make either fantasy relevant, if it didn't do much for Bell in KC last year.

Alshon is at least a little interesting, not worth more than any other end-of-bench dart throw WR, but unless it is standard scoring, give me the aging red zone WR over the aging red zone RB, lol

thankfully, I won't have the problem of looking at any of those names on my rosters in any leagues this year.

 

[TREFF]

it's looking more and more likely that the answer to those questions are "it doesn't matter" and "no" for all of those players, at least from a fantasy perspective.

i guess there's a possibility AP or Bell come in and steal GL work for a team? not sure it'll be enough to make either fantasy relevant, if it didn't do much for Bell in KC last year.

Alshon is at least a little interesting, not worth more than any other end-of-bench dart throw WR, but unless it is standard scoring, give me the aging red zone WR over the aging red zone RB, lol

thankfully, I won't have the problem of looking at any of those names on my rosters in any leagues this year.

If either end up in ATL or MIA?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

If either end up in ATL or MIA?

if AP or Bell signed with those teams, I still think it would be in a reserve role behind Davis and Gaskins, not in an outright committee, but maybe a couple more touches than your typical COP back, but doubtful.

why would any team throw money away at aging RBs when they have a 22yr old with fresh legs on their bench or practice squad already?

 

[Bandit]

If either end up in ATL or MIA?

I think maybe they are going to have to wait for an injury like Davonta Freeman did last year. Barkley got hurt so they panicked and signed him and then they realized why nobody else had signed him because he was terrible and cut him.

 

[TREFF]

if AP or Bell signed with those teams, I still think it would be in a reserve role behind Davis and Gaskins, not in an outright committee, but maybe a couple more touches than your typical COP back, but doubtful.

why would any team throw money away at aging RBs when they have a 22yr old with fresh legs on their bench or practice squad already?

Cuz those aging vets know how to protect a QB and find the end zone...and not give the ball away??

 

[TKOSpikes]

If either end up in ATL or MIA?

I think Miami has made it clear. They signed Brown and didn’t invest high in the draft.
Gaskin was on pace for 224 carries for 920 yards, 65 catches for 620 yards. If I’m the coach, I’m not looking in the backfield to improve my team.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Cuz those aging vets know how to protect a QB and find the end zone...and not give the ball away??

at this stage in their careers, if they did any of those things better than the other 60-70 guys out there, they'd be signed on a team already.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

2017, with Brett Hundley starting 9 games, and Adams missing part of a game early in the year with concussion, then missing last 2 games with a concussion, Adams was still the WR9 overall in pts/game, WR14 in total pts.

So I think it's safe to move him out of the top tier of WRs with no Rodgers, but we still need to consider Adams' ability to make a QB - he's a route running technician that has piled up a lot of TDs over the last 5 years, even when Rodgers was out.

Adams commanded a pretty absurd 28% target share last year and in 2018 with Rodgers. Was lower 20's in 2019 and the 2017 season mentioned above. Packers avg 576 passes the last 3 years under Rodgers, assuming they dial that back a bit with Love, let's put him at 530 attempts, but let's add 25 into that number to account for the extra game played this season (Packers avg over 30 att/game with Rodgers).

I think it should be very safe to assume that Adams will get at minimum, ~20% of those targets, so that puts him at ~111 targets.

Avg 67.9% catch rate the last 4 seasons = ~75rec
Avg 12.1 yds/rec last 4 seasons = ~910yds

TDs will be the difference maker, but I also feel like this is the floor when you are considering the range of outcomes for Adams with Love.

looking at injured Arod seasons are not going to work... If rodgers doesnt play, then we can assume he will never play again for the packers and it will be Love time!!!

If that happens then the entire team identity will change...

With Love, i would max Adams at 95 catches 1000 yards and 8 TDs.... All in all, he is no longer a top 5 WR for me.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

also, Love was on the Practice team all season last year... He probably has found chemistry already with other WRs... It wouldnt be shocking if he has his own go to guy... not to mention young QBs often use TEs as a crutch...

 

[TREFF]

I think Miami has made it clear. They signed Brown and didn’t invest high in the draft.
Gaskin was on pace for 224 carries for 920 yards, 65 catches for 620 yards. If I’m the coach, I’m not looking in the backfield to improve my team.

Dear Lord, I certainly am..pretty pedestrian

 

[TREFF]

at this stage in their careers, if they did any of those things better than the other 60-70 guys out there, they'd be signed on a team already.

I find it very hard to swallow that anyone on anyone's practice squad, and probably half the guys on most teams' 3 deeps, could do much of anything better than Bell or AP....other than sign for significantly less money.

There's also the point of view of some players-, "why should I sign and report to camp, subject my body to preseason crap, possible injury, the grind... when I can sign once that's all over?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I find it very hard to swallow that anyone on anyone's practice squad, and probably half the guys on most teams' 3 deeps, could do much of anything better than Bell or AP....other than sign for significantly less money.

There's also the point of view of some players-, "why should I sign and report to camp, subject my body to preseason crap, possible injury, the grind... when I can sign once that's all over?

don't let me stop you, pick them up, they can't be too expensive to acquire in dynasty formats and I know they're going pretty late in best ball leagues right now. Gurley can probably be had pretty cheap right about now too.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

looking at injured Arod seasons are not going to work... If rodgers doesnt play, then we can assume he will never play again for the packers and it will be Love time!!!

If that happens then the entire team identity will change...

With Love, i would max Adams at 95 catches 1000 yards and 8 TDs.... All in all, he is no longer a top 5 WR for me.

I bet the offensive philosophy doesn't drastically change at all, just some of the target share gets distributed a bit more fairly vs so heavily tilted to Adams.

I agree with Treff, with Rodgers gone and LaFleur more in control of things on offense, I expect that to drop Adams value and increase Jones

 

[TREFF]

don't let me stop you, pick them up, they can't be too expensive to acquire in dynasty formats and I know they're going pretty late in best ball leagues right now. Gurley can probably be had pretty cheap right about now too.

Oh I've got a share here or there of most those dudes...I ain't exactly advocating they'd be league winners or anything like that, just that they're both easily better football players than some random schmuck floating between special teams and practice squads, and could definitely help a team win, given the right circumstances.

I just cannot come to grips with the overall blasé feeling of complacency at RB with so many teams. This fallacy of it being an interchangeable position, any old dog will do, just baffles me. Especially when, if you don't have either A) a dominant D, and can reasonably expect to win games 17-14, or 24-17, or B) a better than average QB who you can depend in to lead your offense to 26+ on average, every week...then the easiest way to improve your team, is to improve your pedestrian running game, helping both the QB and the D simultaneously...I just don't get the complacency. Would either Bell or AP come in at this stage and drastically change that? Probably not, but as Bones would say..for God sakes man, at least TRY"

 

[averagejoe]

How about-
Where will Adrian Peterson, L. Bell, A. Jeffrey, land, and will it matter when they get there?

Monkey threw his name in the mix... at age 26, I still think Gurley can have the most bench value of the names you threw out there.
Gurley's knee issue is arthritis, it is not an injury. He played/started 15 games last year and had over 200 touches.

After Todd, I think AP, Bell and Jeffrey are done.
I'm sure one or all 3 will have a freakishly surprising 25-point fantasy week which will make them a hot waiver pickup. But that's it.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Dear Lord, I certainly am..pretty pedestrian

well, projecting rest of season can be tricky, but that 1500+ would have made him the 5th overall player for all purpose yards in 2020.

My guesses...

Gurley to Chargers
A nice piece for them with really nothing behind a small-like-Gaskin, Ekeler. No pressure and a contender.
...or Falcons is already a back room hand shake kind of waiting in the wings.

Bell to Ravens
They locked up Gus, so now they’re free to take a look. They like three-headed monsters. Just to stick it to Pittsburgh he accepts. Tough knowing your #3, but I see no bites elsewhere.
...or Chiefs, just because why not.

AP to Jets
I assume the only chance for AP is a team that get hits by injury, but of all the non-Falcons teams, I see no landing spots for him. So I’ll go with the Jets who have little field experience in their RB film room.
...or Falcons for reasons above.

 

[TREFF]

Monkey threw his name in the mix... at age 26, I still think Gurley can have the most bench value of the names you threw out there.
Gurley's knee issue is arthritis, it is not an injury. He played/started 15 games last year and had over 200 touches.

After Todd, I think AP, Bell and Jeffrey are done.
I'm sure one or all 3 will have a freakishly surprising 25-point fantasy week which will make them a hot waiver pickup. But that's it.

But we pretty much know he's going to Detriot, where at best he'll be thorn in the side of Swift.

I would agree, for at least part of the season..Gurley probably is the best of the bunch, but after 4-6 games..I dunno, depends on how often he gets used, those knees are just shot