Is This Real About Kelenic?

[SeattleCoug]

How close is Kelenic to making MLB debut?

Jarred Kelenic is expected to land in the Majors at some point this season, but given the Mariners’ solid start and the state of the club’s outfield, don’t expect to see the star prospect in Seattle in the immediate future. The Mariners wanted Kelenic -- who hasn’t played in a

www.mlb.com

 

[seahawksfan234]

I truly think owners and the MLBPA are fine with suppressing younger guys salaries or guys who haven’t played yet. It only started becoming an issue with social media IMO. I would hate to be the MLBPA when it comes to finding solutions to this. The more they lessen service the less of the pie the vets get, which is their entire purpose. And a must for the MLBPA is to not put anything that can be interrupted as a salary cap. But it is going to be an ugly negotiations IMO.

The NFL is the best example because no player is drafted and is a top 10 player that year. But problem with the NFL was the rookies were making so much money the middle class got squeezed out. The MLBPA’s main priority has always been to make an upper middle class of veterans. It was the unspoken agreement that they suppress your earning ability until you reach arbitration then teams massively over pay you in free agency. But with the new stats guys in front offices those aren’t happening all over the sport. The Tatis deal without question is the best for him personally but contracts aren’t all suppose to be for the best of the player but the best for the union. Such as with ARod situation where the trade was completed, went to the MLB and MLBPA approval and the MLBPA nixed it because it would’ve “restructured” ARod’s contract.

It seems you know more about this than I do, so serious question: What are the pros and cons to having a salary cap in MLB? Also why isn't there one? Kind of unrelated but it's somewhat surprising that MLB stars are paid as highly as they are when it doesn't appear that there is nearly as much interest in baseball as there is the NFL and MLB these days.

It's kind of funny it's such a big issue when you step back from the entire thing. Most MLB players make more in 1 year than most Americans will earn over the course of their careers. Shit I get jealous of my clients who earn more than $500k a year, and they objectively contribute way more to the economy than a professional athlete does. Can't even begin to fathom making the type of money a professional athlete does.

 

[NWinAZ]

It seems you know more about this than I do, so serious question: What are the pros and cons to having a salary cap in MLB? Also why isn't there one? Kind of unrelated but it's somewhat surprising that MLB stars are paid as highly as they are when it doesn't appear that there is nearly as much interest in baseball as there is the NFL and MLB these days

Players won't allow a cap. They make the money they make because of 162 game season, more teams in playoffs, creating a huge TV revenue. I hate it. I wish they could get a cap both with a floor and a ceiling cap. I would also take all the national TV revenue and put it into a pot and pay it out based on finish position. Then you will have all teams trying town...even the Mariners.

 

[wazzu31]

It seems you know more about this than I do, so serious question: What are the pros and cons to having a salary cap in MLB? Also why isn't there one? Kind of unrelated but it's somewhat surprising that MLB stars are paid as highly as they are when it doesn't appear that there is nearly as much interest in baseball as there is the NFL and MLB these days.

It's kind of funny it's such a big issue when you step back from the entire thing. Most MLB players make more in 1 year than most Americans will earn over the course of their careers. Shit I get jealous of my clients who earn more than $500k a year, and they objectively contribute way more to the economy than a professional athlete does. Can't even begin to fathom making the type of money a professional athlete does.

With the salary cap, it has always been the number 1 thing since the inception of the PA that they have fought against. So the PA doesn’t want it, but the owners I don’t think want it either because if a salary cap is instituted then a salary floor has to be as well. It is just something PR wise that they both say because the union makes it sound like they are some champion of labor and the owners can try to sell to their fans why there is another hike in pricing.

There also is a difference between the NFL and NBA vs baseball. You can have a kid drafted and he can contribute instantly to a football or basketball team which in baseball it is rare a kid out of college is MLB ready and especially out of high school. The difference in HS and college games vs pro games isn’t that drastic as opposed to HS and college seasons aren’t even 1/2 of a regular season

There may not be perceived as much interest in baseball because of viewership, but every year baseball draws more fans than any sport in our country and most teams triple or quadruple the amounts their basketball teams attendance. There are more games which attributes to that, but baseball overall is still healthy with attendance. The NBA and NBAPA right now is facing huge backlash from their tv partners because they are broadcasting games where stars don’t play at all. Which is like broadcasting 1/3 of Angels games because Trout isn’t going to do anything. Heck, the best overall season was Barry Bonds and it was the equivalent of Mahomes going 10 for 20 with a touchdown and the Chiefs either winning or losing 7-6 vs the Jets more than it being a great game to watch unless you are into that type of game. This is why baseball tv contracts will never equal that of football and in most markets basketball.

The argument for baseball players to make the kind of money they do, is because they actually make way less than any other professional athlete when you break it down. Obviously can’t compare them with your average citizen but maybe a salesman who works mostly off of commission. A good way to look at it to justify baseball salaries are Russell Wilson makes something like $36 million to play 16-18 games a year. Trout makes $40 million or whatever now to play 162. Not if you remember a few years back when Anthony Rizzo said he would be cool with MLB cutting the season back to 144 until he realized he would take a paycut.

Sorry for the essay, obviously I am very pro baseball and will have excuses for X, Y and Z for the sport.

 

[wazzu31]

Players won't allow a cap. They make the money they make because of 162 game season, more teams in playoffs, creating a huge TV revenue. I hate it. I wish they could get a cap both with a floor and a ceiling cap. I would also take all the national TV revenue and put it into a pot and pay it out based on finish position. Then you will have all teams trying town...even the Mariners.

My wild solutions would be:
-The entire draft is a lottery. Would be must see tv and generate viewerships. Doesn’t reward bad teams as well as it would takes leverage out HS and college hands with the signing bonus’. Plus allow for more same day trading of players for picks in case teams have lost their draft.
-Set a hard cap and floor. If a team goes over the cap they cannot sign any free agents for the upcoming year and lose all of their draft picks the upcoming year.
-If you end up under the salary floor, you can’t participate in the next years draft, plus the owner has to cut bonus checks to his players to get team to the max salary cap as punishment.
-Start spring training after March Madness and start the season May 1st. Double headers every weekend and it should end it pre Labor Day. Football is king. It’s self defeating running the funnest month as a baseball fan up against the NFL and college football. Playoffs on their own can go up against the NFL.
-unless the NL goes to the DH refigure the divisions and don’t have AL and NL play inter league games anymore. Make the AS game something again. Win the home run derby you get a check from the sponsor for your entire years salary. Same with AS MVP.

-My other ones wouldn’t have a chance but no more shifts. If you play second base you have a specific area that you can play. Much like if you go out of the baseline you are out.
-Actually enforce at bat rules, and make the mound visits and changing of pitchers more strict. PC gets one visit to talk to his pitcher, like a challenge flag. If he does it again that better gets a walker. A catcher can only visit a pitcher prior to the inning or when a reliever comes in.
-and finally if you aren’t over .500 then your ball park prices get cut in 1/2. Or $2 beers, either way I’m fine. If you have a crappy team you can get people to the game knowing they can pay $30 for a hat and jersey or reasonably feed your kids.

 

[seahawksfan234]

With the salary cap, it has always been the number 1 thing since the inception of the PA that they have fought against. So the PA doesn’t want it, but the owners I don’t think want it either because if a salary cap is instituted then a salary floor has to be as well. It is just something PR wise that they both say because the union makes it sound like they are some champion of labor and the owners can try to sell to their fans why there is another hike in pricing.

There also is a difference between the NFL and NBA vs baseball. You can have a kid drafted and he can contribute instantly to a football or basketball team which in baseball it is rare a kid out of college is MLB ready and especially out of high school. The difference in HS and college games vs pro games isn’t that drastic as opposed to HS and college seasons aren’t even 1/2 of a regular season

There may not be perceived as much interest in baseball because of viewership, but every year baseball draws more fans than any sport in our country and most teams triple or quadruple the amounts their basketball teams attendance. There are more games which attributes to that, but baseball overall is still healthy with attendance. The NBA and NBAPA right now is facing huge backlash from their tv partners because they are broadcasting games where stars don’t play at all. Which is like broadcasting 1/3 of Angels games because Trout isn’t going to do anything. Heck, the best overall season was Barry Bonds and it was the equivalent of Mahomes going 10 for 20 with a touchdown and the Chiefs either winning or losing 7-6 vs the Jets more than it being a great game to watch unless you are into that type of game. This is why baseball tv contracts will never equal that of football and in most markets basketball.

The argument for baseball players to make the kind of money they do, is because they actually make way less than any other professional athlete when you break it down. Obviously can’t compare them with your average citizen but maybe a salesman who works mostly off of commission. A good way to look at it to justify baseball salaries are Russell Wilson makes something like $36 million to play 16-18 games a year. Trout makes $40 million or whatever now to play 162. Not if you remember a few years back when Anthony Rizzo said he would be cool with MLB cutting the season back to 144 until he realized he would take a paycut.

Sorry for the essay, obviously I am very pro baseball and will have excuses for X, Y and Z for the sport.

That actually makes a lot of sense.

When looking at MLB player salaries and organizational revenue, I suppose I really discount the amount of games they play when it comes to generating revenue.

Could just be because my generation has had no reason to be excited about the Mariners, but I just don't really know many people my age who regularly watch the games. I talk baseball more with my clients (50+ generally) than I do many of my friends.

 

[wazzu31]

That actually makes a lot of sense.

When looking at MLB player salaries and organizational revenue, I suppose I really discount the amount of games they play when it comes to generating revenue.

Could just be because my generation has had no reason to be excited about the Mariners, but I just don't really know many people my age who regularly watch the games. I talk baseball more with my clients (50+ generally) than I do many of my friends.

I understand anyone’s counter point to my argument in why baseball salaries are justified. I just don’t think the amount of games is ever mentioned. If most NFL players that gripe about how much baseball players make, they really should check out their paychecks IMO.

I get that baseball skews older. But IMO it doesn’t help that MLB is unintentionally advertising it isn’t for under 30 year olds. Pace of game and tweaking rules for the pace is preached by all league commissioners but MLB for some reasons verbally say it because of a certain demo, not to evolve the product. And IMO quit preaching analytics on television, it isn’t a generational issue. No one wants to watch a math class, no one cares about a real life story problem unfolding in front of them.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I understand anyone’s counter point to my argument in why baseball salaries are justified. I just don’t think the amount of games is ever mentioned. If most NFL players that gripe about how much baseball players make, they really should check out their paychecks IMO.

I get that baseball skews older. But IMO it doesn’t help that MLB is unintentionally advertising it isn’t for under 30 year olds. Pace of game and tweaking rules for the pace is preached by all league commissioners but MLB for some reasons verbally say it because of a certain demo, not to evolve the product. And IMO quit preaching analytics on television, it isn’t a generational issue. No one wants to watch a math class, no one cares about a real life story problem unfolding in front of them.

I've said this before that I do believe in analytics and advanced statistical analysis applied to player acquisition, but I agree that they need to stop preaching analytics on television because the casual fan doesn't know what the hell most of the statistics even mean. Shit I'm well read on analytics and sometimes when they show various analytic data on TV, I don't know what the hell they're talking about or what the baseline is. It's just a random number that I don't know how it's calculated and honestly don't want to bother figuring it out when I'm trying to relax and watch something that is supposed to be entertaining.

 

[wazzu31]

I've said this before that I do believe in analytics and advanced statistical analysis applied to player acquisition, but I agree that they need to stop preaching analytics on television because the casual fan doesn't know what the hell most of the statistics even mean. Shit I'm well read on analytics and sometimes when they show various analytic data on TV, I don't know what the hell they're talking about or what the baseline is. It's just a random number that I don't know how it's calculated and honestly don't want to bother figuring it out when I'm trying to relax and watch something that is supposed to be entertaining.

I don’t hate analytics because baseball has always been a stats driven game. But I do however despise money ball and modern analytics especially launch angle. I will never understand how all these new guys in baseball keep touting run differential as the Holy Bible yet discourage every way to score a run besides a HR, and have tried to stifle the way you try to stop teams from scoring runs.

Modern day analytics in baseball is the football equivalent of the Air Raid.

Your last part is why I think baseball is dumb with how they are promoting the sport. It is hard to draw in more viewers when in between each pitch the announcers have to give lessons what each stat means.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I don’t hate analytics because baseball has always been a stats driven game. But I do however despise money ball and modern analytics especially launch angle. I will never understand how all these new guys in baseball keep touting run differential as the Holy Bible yet discourage every way to score a run besides a HR, and have tried to stifle the way you try to stop teams from scoring runs.

Modern day analytics in baseball is the football equivalent of the Air Raid.

Your last part is why I think baseball is dumb with how they are promoting the sport. It is hard to draw in more viewers when in between each pitch the announcers have to give lessons what each stat means.

Only sort of related but I really hate how it seems baseball is now either walk, strikeout or home run.

It's ironic because you would think more HRs would mean more excitement, but for me it doesn't because shooting for the fences reduces the amount of balls put in play. "Small ball" sounds boring but I do kind of miss the days of getting runners on and trying to get them home without it having to be an extra base hit.

 

[wazzu31]

Only sort of related but I really hate how it seems baseball is now either walk, strikeout or home run.

It's ironic because you would think more HRs would mean more excitement, but for me it doesn't because shooting for the fences reduces the amount of balls put in play. "Small ball" sounds boring but I do kind of miss the days of getting runners on and trying to get them home without it having to be an extra base hit.

I know not everyone feels the same way. But one of the most exciting plays in baseball is the stolen base. It gets the crowd into a game only out done by a home run. Crowds don’t cheer a walk, but when the game is on the line and a manager puts in a guy who has the potential for a steal it gets exciting. They have stripped that element out, which IMO is just dumb because mathematically it makes no sense. I know have written in a different thread but the chance of someone stealing plus scoring, divided by the chance of that base runner getting thrown out is a lot better than the chance of someone hitting a home run or taking a walk but scoring.

I just will never get how run differential is touted but you shrink the ways of getting more runs or how IMO you hurt the team by using an opener or using dumb bullpen games. How can you have a bullpen game but not everyone in the bullpen is eligible to pitch.

So my closing argument is analytics is great when you put it in the equation with common sense. It’s like the financial world. Analytics are great but don’t always work just as using your gut instinct is great but doesn’t always work. There isn’t a perfect formula to succeed in baseball, just as you open the wall street journal and become a millionaire.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I know not everyone feels the same way. But one of the most exciting plays in baseball is the stolen base. It gets the crowd into a game only out done by a home run. Crowds don’t cheer a walk, but when the game is on the line and a manager puts in a guy who has the potential for a steal it gets exciting. They have stripped that element out, which IMO is just dumb because mathematically it makes no sense. I know have written in a different thread but the chance of someone stealing plus scoring, divided by the chance of that base runner getting thrown out is a lot better than the chance of someone hitting a home run or taking a walk but scoring.

I just will never get how run differential is touted but you shrink the ways of getting more runs or how IMO you hurt the team by using an opener or using dumb bullpen games. How can you have a bullpen game but not everyone in the bullpen is eligible to pitch.

So my closing argument is analytics is great when you put it in the equation with common sense. It’s like the financial world. Analytics are great but don’t always work just as using your gut instinct is great but doesn’t always work. There isn’t a perfect formula to succeed in baseball, just as you open the wall street journal and become a millionaire.

1000000% agree that the stolen base is one of the most exciting plays in baseball.

I was actually going to mention that one of the casualties of analytics is the stolen base. I've read a bunch of analytics articles that have argued that in the end an aggressive approach on the bases in the end hurts the team more than helps it, but in all honesty as much as I want whatever is best for the team, I honestly don't care. I enjoy stolen bases and it makes the game more exciting. Two outs and a runner on first who is capable of stealing second suddenly gives the hitter a chance of driving in a run with a stolen base and a ball hit into the gap.

A two out steal of second base followed by a ball hit to the gap with the outfielder attempting to throw out the runner at the plate is way more exciting to me than a home run, even if the runner were thrown out at the plate. Even if there are compelling arguments not to send the runner, I don't care. It's more fun to watch.

 

[wazzu31]

1000000% agree that the stolen base is one of the most exciting plays in baseball.

I was actually going to mention that one of the casualties of analytics is the stolen base. I've read a bunch of analytics articles that have argued that in the end an aggressive approach on the bases in the end hurts the team more than helps it, but in all honesty as much as I want whatever is best for the team, I honestly don't care. I enjoy stolen bases and it makes the game more exciting. Two outs and a runner on first who is capable of stealing second suddenly gives the hitter a chance of driving in a run with a stolen base and a ball hit into the gap.

A two out steal of second base followed by a ball hit to the gap with the outfielder attempting to throw out the runner at the plate is way more exciting to me than a home run, even if the runner were thrown out at the plate. Even if there are compelling arguments not to send the runner, I don't care. It's more fun to watch.

The thing with base running is as much as there are famous clips of home runs, base running has just as many famous historical clips. Jackie Robinson’s most famous moment was a steal, the play that the Mariners will play forever is Junior doing something every analytics person would never go 1st to home on ball hit down the line.


IMO analytics are just flat out wrong or are “incomplete” when it comes to base running and a few other issues. On paper there is an argument for being conservative on the bases. but baseball/sports isn’t played on paper. IMO the problem is they take someone like Edgar and Ichiro and think they are the same at base running or they take the average of the two. It’s the same thing with launch angle, adjusting the angle isn’t going to take a guy who might hit 10 home runs a year and turn them into a 30 home run a year guy. But preaching launch angle can take a guy who could hit .280 a year and make them hit .220. If you have the threat of a steal, the chances of the pitcher throwing a fastball gets higher. Moneyball/early analytics has been evolving since it first became prevalent because they never added defense into their equations/metrics and every year they are tweaking what makes a good defensive player because they realized a catcher or 1B can hit 50 home runs a year and it doesn’t matter if they can’t catch a ball.

Maybe I just am old guy yelling at clouds but I would rather a speed guy get thrown out attempting a steal at the end of game than betting on a homerun or a pitcher walking in a run.

 

[seahawksfan234]

The thing with base running is as much as there are famous clips of home runs, base running has just as many famous historical clips. Jackie Robinson’s most famous moment was a steal, the play that the Mariners will play forever is Junior doing something every analytics person would never go 1st to home on ball hit down the line.


IMO analytics are just flat out wrong or are “incomplete” when it comes to base running and a few other issues. On paper there is an argument for being conservative on the bases. but baseball/sports isn’t played on paper. IMO the problem is they take someone like Edgar and Ichiro and think they are the same at base running or they take the average of the two. It’s the same thing with launch angle, adjusting the angle isn’t going to take a guy who might hit 10 home runs a year and turn them into a 30 home run a year guy. But preaching launch angle can take a guy who could hit .280 a year and make them hit .220. If you have the threat of a steal, the chances of the pitcher throwing a fastball gets higher. Moneyball/early analytics has been evolving since it first became prevalent because they never added defense into their equations/metrics and every year they are tweaking what makes a good defensive player because they realized a catcher or 1B can hit 50 home runs a year and it doesn’t matter if they can’t catch a ball.

Maybe I just am old guy yelling at clouds but I would rather a speed guy get thrown out attempting a steal at the end of game than betting on a homerun or a pitcher walking in a run.

I completely agree with you.

When it comes to launch angle, I don't know why it's discussed so much on TV. First you need to be able to make contact. Second you need to be able to hit the ball hard. If you're a guy who is just launching hard hit balls into the outfield, perhaps adjusting your launch angle will lead to extra base hits but I find launch angle to be something that doesn't really matter other than in a few particular circumstances when a talented player could be hitting the ball a bit further by adjusting his swing a bit.

Could be I'm just an old soul, but I do agree that watching an attempted steal at the end of the game is more entertaining than betting on a HR or a pitcher walking in a run.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Ill be honest I'm torn on how I wanna grade Kelenic's first couple of weeks.

If I'm gonna be glass half, he's sporting a very low BABIP and low K rate and his Line Drive rate is decent so there's things to suggest he's getting unlucky.

However when I really look at him I'm not super convinced he's gonna be more then a .250/.260 with pop. Which I mean thats probably above average from what you are getting from the everyday player nowdays but from a top 5 prospect in baseball, I'd hope for a lot better.

I guess its best he just gets more ABs for now and see where things shake in another month

 

[NWinAZ]

Ill be honest I'm torn on how I wanna grade Kelenic's first couple of weeks.

If I'm gonna be glass half, he's sporting a very low BABIP and low K rate and his Line Drive rate is decent so there's things to suggest he's getting unlucky.

However when I really look at him I'm not super convinced he's gonna be more then a .250/.260 with pop. Which I mean thats probably above average from what you are getting from the everyday player nowdays but from a top 5 prospect in baseball, I'd hope for a lot better.

I guess its best he just gets more ABs for now and see where things shake in another month

Ya I am not seeing the next Griffey by any means. Well maybe Griffey Sr. and that wouldn't be all that bad. I say he will be a .256/40 HR/90 RBI guy in a couple years. Iffy defense and is a fiery guy which can either make him better or burn him out.

 

[The Q]

I know not everyone feels the same way. But one of the most exciting plays in baseball is the stolen base. It gets the crowd into a game only out done by a home run. Crowds don’t cheer a walk, but when the game is on the line and a manager puts in a guy who has the potential for a steal it gets exciting. They have stripped that element out, which IMO is just dumb because mathematically it makes no sense. I know have written in a different thread but the chance of someone stealing plus scoring, divided by the chance of that base runner getting thrown out is a lot better than the chance of someone hitting a home run or taking a walk but scoring.

I just will never get how run differential is touted but you shrink the ways of getting more runs or how IMO you hurt the team by using an opener or using dumb bullpen games. How can you have a bullpen game but not everyone in the bullpen is eligible to pitch.

So my closing argument is analytics is great when you put it in the equation with common sense. It’s like the financial world. Analytics are great but don’t always work just as using your gut instinct is great but doesn’t always work. There isn’t a perfect formula to succeed in baseball, just as you open the wall street journal and become a millionaire.

I completely agree with you.

When it comes to launch angle, I don't know why it's discussed so much on TV. First you need to be able to make contact. Second you need to be able to hit the ball hard. If you're a guy who is just launching hard hit balls into the outfield, perhaps adjusting your launch angle will lead to extra base hits but I find launch angle to be something that doesn't really matter other than in a few particular circumstances when a talented player could be hitting the ball a bit further by adjusting his swing a bit.

Could be I'm just an old soul, but I do agree that watching an attempted steal at the end of the game is more entertaining than betting on a HR or a pitcher walking in a run.

simply it’s because pitchers are better and it’s more efficient to scoring runs to drive the ball deep than to get 3 or 4 hits in a row.

 

[wazzu31]

simply it’s because pitchers are better and it’s more efficient to scoring runs to drive the ball deep than to get 3 or 4 hits in a row.

But are pitchers more effective? You are doing the chicken before the egg argument. When the offensive philosophy is geared towards allowing pitchers seem more efficient does that mean they are more efficient? No one can argue today’s baseball overall isn’t more athletic than generations past even though stolen bases are massively down. Strikeouts are up but no one in their right mind could argue today’s pitchers are better than generations past pitchers.

 

[The Q]

But are pitchers more effective? You are doing the chicken before the egg argument. When the offensive philosophy is geared towards allowing pitchers seem more efficient does that mean they are more efficient? No one can argue today’s baseball overall isn’t more athletic than generations past even though stolen bases are massively down. Strikeouts are up but no one in their right mind could argue today’s pitchers are better than generations past pitchers.

the velocity matters. A lot.

 

[wazzu31]

the velocity matters. A lot.

No it doesn’t and never has. Spin rate didn’t become a thing out of nowhere. If you are an average hitter you can get use to any velocity. Multiple out pitchers are what has always made pitchers and that isn’t what is happening now, just batters are taught to pretend they are Edgar Martinez.

Randy Johnson consistently threw 100 more when he was the most dangerous pitcher is baseball rather than when he was the best pitcher. Nolan Ryan threw arguably the fastest fastball ever and he was a strikeout pitcher, never a dude talked about as a one of the best pitchers of all time.