Series Thread: tOfficial Mariners 2019 Season Thread

[wazzu31]

I've always found the financial aspect to sports really fascinating and I'm wondering how that money will be spent. Haniger is really the only one we'd be looking at extending at this point. Building on the point you made, I think that maintaining a strong farm system while contending is crucial to long-term success. Eventually if you build a team like the Astros, you won't be able to afford them all.

Haniger is a guy who, if given the right offer, mostly pitching, I would trade in a heartbeat. They have so much OF depth in the organization that only 3 of 10 need to be big league caliber and if Kelenic and Rodriguez hit like their talent is then Haniger is more of an impediment. Just look at Santana defensively since he moved to RF. Fraley or Kelenic are the CF of the future and Rodriguez/Santana should be the RF of the future. Unfortunately he will be due for a raise by the time the core of OF’s are ready to come up and he plays the two positions the organization is loaded with.

 

[seattlefan75]

I still like what management is doing and the direction they are going by shedding contracts and rebuilding the farm. The only real red flag that I can think of is trading for Justus Sheffield and he took a step back in his development by getting torn up in AAA getting crushed in his major league debut and now he is back to the basics in AA.

Some say Ketel Marte was a mistake and thats hard to argue against but Mitch Haniger was an all star last year and they turned Segura into JP crawford and he looks like he can be an all star next year. So although not perfect Vogelbach is an all star and Domingo Santana was a mega snub for the all star team how the hell do you lead the american league in RBIs and get passed over for Austin Meadows?

 

[seahawksfan234]

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching. The M's have a lot of disfunction but developing pitching may be the biggest. Develop the hitters/fielders, and buy you some pitching when the time comes. Of course the question will always remain, will the time ever come?

*And when I speak of pitching, I mean top of the rotation pitching of course. We are quite good at developing back end starters and long relief pitchers. Unfortunately we use them as #1 and #2's and bullpen guys as setup men and closers.

Unfortunately we've sucked at developing just about every position. In recent years I think that Kyle Seager is the only position player drafted by the Mariners that went on to have a successful career.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I’ve yet to see him play so I can’t say totally why. But just looking at his numbers, he has hit every where he has played and he has a few serious defensive highlights since joining Tacoma. The twitter follow of the Mariners Minor League is worth a check out.

I'll have to force myself to get on Twitter. I've abstained for years now.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Haniger is a guy who, if given the right offer, mostly pitching, I would trade in a heartbeat. They have so much OF depth in the organization that only 3 of 10 need to be big league caliber and if Kelenic and Rodriguez hit like their talent is then Haniger is more of an impediment. Just look at Santana defensively since he moved to RF. Fraley or Kelenic are the CF of the future and Rodriguez/Santana should be the RF of the future. Unfortunately he will be due for a raise by the time the core of OF’s are ready to come up and he plays the two positions the organization is loaded with.

I've been unsure on the Haniger thing for a while. Unfortunately his value isn't all that high right now with his early struggles and his... painful injury. I fully anticipate Haniger to bounce back, continue to be the player he was last year and perhaps could get even better. Although even though we have some great outfield prospects we have to remember that they are still prospects.

I've waxed poetic about all of our outfield prospects and I really do have high expectations of them, but trading Haniger could be risky. If we get a strong return and Kelenic, Rodriguez, Fraley, Lewis, Braden etc. etc. pan out then it would be a great move. If not, it could really blow up in our face.

Mariners do have a huge log jam at outfield because since coming back from his AAA stint, Mallex Smith has been the player he was in 2018 and Domingo Santana's bat is something you can't ignore. I would probably move Santana before I'd move Haniger, but the issue with that is it appears the league doesn't value him all that much if we were able to land him for Gamel.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I still like what management is doing and the direction they are going by shedding contracts and rebuilding the farm. The only real red flag that I can think of is trading for Justus Sheffield and he took a step back in his development by getting torn up in AAA getting crushed in his major league debut and now he is back to the basics in AA.

Some say Ketel Marte was a mistake and thats hard to argue against but Mitch Haniger was an all star last year and they turned Segura into JP crawford and he looks like he can be an all star next year. So although not perfect Vogelbach is an all star and Domingo Santana was a mega snub for the all star team how the hell do you lead the american league in RBIs and get passed over for Austin Meadows?

The Sheffield thing is frustrating but obviously the Mariners had to move Paxton. Hindsight being 20/20 I'm starting to feel a bit down on that trade. I read a handful of write-ups on Sheffield back then that said he might be better suited in the bullpen, but I took the optimistic route that it was just a pessimistic valuation. Hopefully he figures things out and even if he doesn't I think that it appears right now that the other trades that the Mariners hit on could compensate for that.

When it comes to Ketel Marte, they also acquired Jean Segura in that trade. Back then when they made that trade it didn't appear there was a spot in the organization for Marte given Segura's youth and the fact that when the trade was made, Segura was clearly a vastly superior player. I don't think that anyone would've anticipated that Marte would've put on 40lbs of muscle and somehow become a huge threat at the plate.

 

[NWinAZ]

I've been unsure on the Haniger thing for a while. Unfortunately his value isn't all that high right now with his early struggles and his... painful injury. I fully anticipate Haniger to bounce back, continue to be the player he was last year and perhaps could get even better. Although even though we have some great outfield prospects we have to remember that they are still prospects.

I've waxed poetic about all of our outfield prospects and I really do have high expectations of them, but trading Haniger could be risky. If we get a strong return and Kelenic, Rodriguez, Fraley, Lewis, Braden etc. etc. pan out then it would be a great move. If not, it could really blow up in our face.

Mariners do have a huge log jam at outfield because since coming back from his AAA stint, Mallex Smith has been the player he was in 2018 and Domingo Santana's bat is something you can't ignore. I would probably move Santana before I'd move Haniger, but the issue with that is it appears the league doesn't value him all that much if we were able to land him for Gamel.

I don't think trading Haniger is a risk at all for one simple reason; We will never be one player away from making it or not. If the other 6 or 7 outfielders pan out, then no loss. If they don't, we aren't going anywhere anyways.

Any deal for Haniger has to include a #2 SP type prospect and a legit 3B prospect. Our highest rated 3B prospect is #24 and he is a smasher which probably means a future DH.

Mitch will also be 29 after the season and if we are 2 to 3 years away that means he will be early 30's and just starting a larger contract. Love the guy, but he doesn't fit the timeline nor the position of need.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I don't think trading Haniger is a risk at all for one simple reason; We will never be one player away from making it or not. If the other 6 or 7 outfielders pan out, then no loss. If they don't, we aren't going anywhere anyways.

Any deal for Haniger has to include a #2 SP type prospect and a legit 3B prospect. Our highest rated 3B prospect is #24 and he is a smasher which probably means a future DH.

Mitch will also be 29 after the season and if we are 2 to 3 years away that means he will be early 30's and just starting a larger contract. Love the guy, but he doesn't fit the timeline nor the position of need.

Good points and I can't really disagree with anything you said. I mentioned that I'm completely on the fence when it comes to moving Haniger.

It's hard to say because I think there are a lot of good arguments in favor of it and against it. I will say that it can't be this season because right now with his early season struggles, we could possibly selling low on him. Another issue is that if we consider it this offseason, his cumulative numbers will be down since he missed a period of time and having not played or trained in a while due to his injury - my uncle suffered a similar injury and his testicle swelled up to the size of a basketball - he might not have the best performance once he comes back.

I love our current prospects but I would definitely hold on to him until he reaches peak value. He is our most valuable trade asset and if you trade him, that's one you really can't fuck up. When you take into consideration all of the phases of his game, he was arguably one of the best corner outfielders in the AL last year. He likely still has another 4-5 years of his prime and if the window really is 2021 (realistically 2022) he could be a key piece.

Not arguing against trading Haniger because as I said, I'm really not sure. The only thing I'm sure of is that the Mariners cannot sell low on him. It's a frustrating situation because our best prospects are outfielders. At the ML level, Santana is hitting the cover off the ball, Mallex Smith has played well offensively and defensively since his AAA stint and Haniger is obviously Haniger.

 

[seattlefan75]

When you guys say that we are loaded with OF prospects who exactly are we talking about? Because Kelenic and Rodriguez are still babies I think it will be like 3 years before we can start talking about bringing them to the league and that is without any set backs with injuries or slumps.

I think unfortunately we may need to pull the plug on Kyle Lewis being great it seems like he will be an average player at the majors idk if his major injury his rookie season had anything to do with it.

Branden Bishop and Ian Miller to me arent anything special.

The only guy that looks like his is on his way maybe next year would be Jake Fraley and as we can see this season having signed Williamson and putting Moore in the outfield that there is plenty of opportunities to play outfield for us

 

[NWinAZ]

Good points and I can't really disagree with anything you said. I mentioned that I'm completely on the fence when it comes to moving Haniger.

It's hard to say because I think there are a lot of good arguments in favor of it and against it. I will say that it can't be this season because right now with his early season struggles, we could possibly selling low on him. Another issue is that if we consider it this offseason, his cumulative numbers will be down since he missed a period of time and having not played or trained in a while due to his injury - my uncle suffered a similar injury and his testicle swelled up to the size of a basketball - he might not have the best performance once he comes back.

I love our current prospects but I would definitely hold on to him until he reaches peak value. He is our most valuable trade asset and if you trade him, that's one you really can't fuck up. When you take into consideration all of the phases of his game, he was arguably one of the best corner outfielders in the AL last year. He likely still has another 4-5 years of his prime and if the window really is 2021 (realistically 2022) he could be a key piece.

Not arguing against trading Haniger because as I said, I'm really not sure. The only thing I'm sure of is that the Mariners cannot sell low on him. It's a frustrating situation because our best prospects are outfielders. At the ML level, Santana is hitting the cover off the ball, Mallex Smith has played well offensively and defensively since his AAA stint and Haniger is obviously Haniger.

I agree on not selling low but it seems (at least with M's) they trade during low value times instead at deadlines when teams over pay. I know the rule of two trade deadlines has change so there may not be enough time this season to increase his value. With that said, what if he continues downward? Then his value is gone at 29.

It is Mariners so they will do what is best...

 

[NWinAZ]

When you guys say that we are loaded with OF prospects who exactly are we talking about? Because Kelenic and Rodriguez are still babies I think it will be like 3 years before we can start talking about bringing them to the league and that is without any set backs with injuries or slumps.

I think unfortunately we may need to pull the plug on Kyle Lewis being great it seems like he will be an average player at the majors idk if his major injury his rookie season had anything to do with it.

Branden Bishop and Ian Miller to me arent anything special.

The only guy that looks like his is on his way maybe next year would be Jake Fraley and as we can see this season having signed Williamson and putting Moore in the outfield that there is plenty of opportunities to play outfield for us

No sure things but we do have a young core at different readiness levels:

1- Mallex Smith
2- Santana
3- Fraley who compares to Haniger.
4- Bishop who is a huge upgrade in CF over Smith and Haniger so if he can hit decent then that is major leaguer.
5- Miller is a good 4th OF with speed to pinch run and defense to play late in games. If he hits, then 3rd OF material.
6- Lewis is a guy I wouldn't give up on just yet. The injury was a killer but he still flashes major leaguer talent.
7- Dom Thompson-Williams from Yanks is 24 with a lot of potential as well. "Thompson-Williams was having a strong year (.313/.396/.539) then went 1-for-34 from May 16-20, 26-28. It’s 60 speed and 60 raw power to go with fringe-average centerfield defense and a 55 arm. He’s a plus defender in left and an above-average base-stealing threat."

So not a bad group to pick a few from until the top two make it up. There is also lot of money that can be spent if we needed to add a B+, A- outfielder to the mix next year via free agency.

 

[NWinAZ]

Any deal for Haniger has to include a #2 SP type prospect and a legit 3B prospect.

One team that stands out is Phillies. They have the #3 3B prospects in all of baseball and need OF help with all their injuries (I mean they are playing Bruce when healthy).

Haniger and Seager and we pay 90% of Seager's salary for Bohm, Kevin Gowdy, Brito.

 

[wazzu31]

I've been unsure on the Haniger thing for a while. Unfortunately his value isn't all that high right now with his early struggles and his... painful injury. I fully anticipate Haniger to bounce back, continue to be the player he was last year and perhaps could get even better. Although even though we have some great outfield prospects we have to remember that they are still prospects.

I've waxed poetic about all of our outfield prospects and I really do have high expectations of them, but trading Haniger could be risky. If we get a strong return and Kelenic, Rodriguez, Fraley, Lewis, Braden etc. etc. pan out then it would be a great move. If not, it could really blow up in our face.

Mariners do have a huge log jam at outfield because since coming back from his AAA stint, Mallex Smith has been the player he was in 2018 and Domingo Santana's bat is something you can't ignore. I would probably move Santana before I'd move Haniger, but the issue with that is it appears the league doesn't value him all that much if we were able to land him for Gamel.

Trading any proven commodity is definitely risky. But just using best case scenario is Raleigh and White turn out to be studs so it plugs two holes, I think everyone is comfortable with Crawford but it still leaves holes in pitching and 3B/2B if they don’t go out and spend money on let’s just say Rendon. IMO it is better to trade a position of strength such as how much depth they have in the OF. Obviously praying they choose the right ones to deal though. Sure it may backfire but that is the crap shoot of rebuilding. The Mariners will not have the draft capital the Astros or Cubs got because they didn’t tear it down to the studs like they did and even if they do suck they can’t get Baltimore bad.

I’m more inclined to keep Santana because he is a serviceable RF or at a minimum a DH if something doesn’t go well with Vogelbach. Plus, bad luck just seems to follow Haniger much along the lines of Paxton. I mean it’s all a gamble but as all of us fans know the Mariners generally give up on the wrong prospects or draft the wrong guys so I’m hoping this time it is different.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I agree on not selling low but it seems (at least with M's) they trade during low value times instead at deadlines when teams over pay. I know the rule of two trade deadlines has change so there may not be enough time this season to increase his value. With that said, what if he continues downward? Then his value is gone at 29.

It is Mariners so they will do what is best...

I have to say that I'm quite biased on Haniger since I believe 2018 was legit and that he can continue to improve. But unless he starts having various injury issues (which is always a possibility), I think that his value wouldn't continue going downward.

I know I'm more into the Sabermetrics shit than most of you guys, but his BABIP was well, well, well below his career norm. His BABIP in 2019 is .257 and his career average is .317. That would indicate he's hitting the ball well but it just isn't dropping in the wrong location. I hate using the term bad luck, but I think that combined with the elevated K rate is why he has struggled.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Trading any proven commodity is definitely risky. But just using best case scenario is Raleigh and White turn out to be studs so it plugs two holes, I think everyone is comfortable with Crawford but it still leaves holes in pitching and 3B/2B if they don’t go out and spend money on let’s just say Rendon. IMO it is better to trade a position of strength such as how much depth they have in the OF. Obviously praying they choose the right ones to deal though. Sure it may backfire but that is the crap shoot of rebuilding. The Mariners will not have the draft capital the Astros or Cubs got because they didn’t tear it down to the studs like they did and even if they do suck they can’t get Baltimore bad.

I’m more inclined to keep Santana because he is a serviceable RF or at a minimum a DH if something doesn’t go well with Vogelbach. Plus, bad luck just seems to follow Haniger much along the lines of Paxton. I mean it’s all a gamble but as all of us fans know the Mariners generally give up on the wrong prospects or draft the wrong guys so I’m hoping this time it is different.

I personally wouldn't worry too much about Cal Raleigh turning out to be a stud primarily due to the fact that I'm really comfortable with Omar Narvaez being the every day catcher and if Tom Murphy continues hitting the way he has, I think that's a great combo.

Haniger does have his injury concerns but I really can't blame him for the testicle injury or the fastball he took to the face. That's just some freak of nature shit. Paxton on the other hand just doesn't seem to be able to hold up and injury issues with pitchers are more concerning than a position player IMO.

I love Vogelbach but he may be best off in a platoon role. Obviously he hasn't had a whole lot of experience at the major league level, but his splits in 2019 are somewhat concerning. He's hitting .281/.421/.607 with 18 HRs against RHPs in 247 PAs but he's hitting .129/.229/.242 with 2 HRs in 70 PAs against lefties.

 

[NWinAZ]

Swarzak was placed on the 10-day injured list on Sunday due to right shoulder inflammation, but thankfully it's not overly serious. The veteran setup man owns an impressive 0.52 ERA and 21/6 K/BB ratio in 17 1/3 innings since the Braves acquired him from the Mariners in May.

 

[NWinAZ]

Mariners should put in a claim on him. I am guessing Orioles will end up with him first. Actually if he opted out does he still go through waivers or is he a free agent? I am guessing free agent.

Mets released INF Dilson Herrera.
Herrera exercised the opt-out in his minor league contract with New York. The 25-year-old was sporting an impressive .921 OPS with 17 home runs and eight stolen bases through 68 games this season at Triple-A Syracuse and should be able to latch on with a new organization rather quickly.

 

[NWinAZ]

Ryon Healy (back) still hasn't been cleared for any baseball activities.
Healy has been on the injured list since May 21 with lower back discomfort and was later diagnosed with spinal stenosis. The corner infielder remains in a holding pattern and probably won't be an option for the Mariners for at least another month.

 

[NWinAZ]

Braden Bishop (spleen) has a checkup with a specialist on July 10.
He could be cleared to begin baseball activities soon after. Bishop was placed on the injured list in early June after suffering a lacerated spleen. There is still no timetable for his return to the Mariners' active roster, but things seem to be moving in a positive direction.

 

[NWinAZ]

Felix Hernandez (lat) is aiming to begin throwing off a mound sometime after the All-Star break.
Hernandez has been playing catch every day for the last week or so, but he still has many hurdles to clear before he can return to the Mariners' active roster. The veteran starter has been on the shelf since May 12 because of a right lat strain.