Series Thread: tOfficial Mariners 2019 Season Thread

[Anointed One]

Ugh... I'm tired of watching Gearrin being run out of games...

 

[Anointed One]

Hate to say it but was there any doubt that we'd probably end up losing in the 7th inning when we were up 1-0 w/ our bullpen on call?

 

[Duders]

Oh phooey...there went our chance to sweep the stros….

 

[Duders]

He must have just watched a Mariner's game I'm guessing.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Heck, I suppose if I watched more games and/or paid more attention when I do watch a game, I might know who the hell some of the arms are that come out of the pen. Or maybe they have a high turnover in the pen? I don't know but it's a weird season no doubt.

Pretty sure there has been a pretty high turnover. I find myself having to remind myself who some of these guys are.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Man I wish Dipoto would make another trade or something. I'm getting tired of refreshing MLBTR.

 

[FirebreathingMonkey]

A different view on the trades.

Are Mariners 'winning' trades Jerry Dipoto has made since rebuild began?

 

[wazzu31]

A different view on the trades.

Are Mariners 'winning' trades Jerry Dipoto has made since rebuild began?

I think @PolarVortex and I kind of hashed it out. This offseason regardless of how things end up was an overall success for Jerry except most likely the Yankees deal. But even if they lose on, IMO Jerry massively underselling on Paxton, overall it was a successful offseason. Realistically all they gave up that was involved in the whole offseason was Diaz for Kelenic. Fraley may end up being the big steal of the entire offseason though.

 

[Duders]

I think @PolarVortex and I kind of hashed it out. This offseason regardless of how things end up was an overall success for Jerry except most likely the Yankees deal. But even if they lose on, IMO Jerry massively underselling on Paxton, overall it was a successful offseason. Realistically all they gave up that was involved in the whole offseason was Diaz for Kelenic. Fraley may end up being the big steal of the entire offseason though.

I hope you are right about Kelenic and I think dip did a decent (not great) job so far. It's gonna be tough to wait till this "rebuild" comes together in a couple years. That link also makes it sound like Servais will probably be around for awhile, which I figured anyway cuz he's dip's golden boy.

 

[wazzu31]

I hope you are right about Kelenic and I think dip did a decent (not great) job so far. It's gonna be tough to wait till this "rebuild" comes together in a couple years. That link also makes it sound like Servais will probably be around for awhile, which I figured anyway cuz he's dip's golden boy.

I think without question Jerry has been successful so far in the rebuild just by bringing in much better prospects and cutting salary. But this is where the rub is, just like any other sport the GM is successful in the first phase of a rebuild by getting prospects or draft picks. The next phase is where his job is on the line by either developing the talent or flipping the talent for talent that makes them a contender.

I have little faith in Jerry but hopefully somewhere he has either hired a talent developer for the guys he traded for or are talented enough to overcome how inept the organization has been as developing talent. Kelenic already is the best positional prospect they have had since Adam Jones and Gilbert is the best pitching prospect since Walker, not the number 1 prospect like Walker was but still better than they have had between Felix and Walker.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I think @PolarVortex and I kind of hashed it out. This offseason regardless of how things end up was an overall success for Jerry except most likely the Yankees deal. But even if they lose on, IMO Jerry massively underselling on Paxton, overall it was a successful offseason. Realistically all they gave up that was involved in the whole offseason was Diaz for Kelenic. Fraley may end up being the big steal of the entire offseason though.

I'm overall content with everything that has been done since the team decided to sell. The Paxton trade is the only one that I think they could've done better on. I think we could've received a bit more financial relief or a better prospect for Bruce, but it is what it is.

One guy that has been kind of overlooked with Kelenic being the star of the trade is Justin Dunn. He has catapulted himself to the #2 prospect in the organization (#67 in baseball) per MLB pipeline. He currently has a 3.45 ERA with 90 Ks in 70 IP in AA.

Since being sent down to AA it seems Sheffield may have figured something out. In his 3 starts he has a 1.35 ERA and seems to have figured out his control issues as he had 41 walks in 55 IP in AAA but only has 4 walks in 20 innings at AA.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I hope you are right about Kelenic and I think dip did a decent (not great) job so far. It's gonna be tough to wait till this "rebuild" comes together in a couple years. That link also makes it sound like Servais will probably be around for awhile, which I figured anyway cuz he's dip's golden boy.

I'm a huge Kelenic fan and legit believe that he will be a star in the majors. He's a five tool player and every video I've seen of him shows that he has the ability to hit the ball to both sides of the field with plus power.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I think without question Jerry has been successful so far in the rebuild just by bringing in much better prospects and cutting salary. But this is where the rub is, just like any other sport the GM is successful in the first phase of a rebuild by getting prospects or draft picks. The next phase is where his job is on the line by either developing the talent or flipping the talent for talent that makes them a contender.

I have little faith in Jerry but hopefully somewhere he has either hired a talent developer for the guys he traded for or are talented enough to overcome how inept the organization has been as developing talent. Kelenic already is the best positional prospect they have had since Adam Jones and Gilbert is the best pitching prospect since Walker, not the number 1 prospect like Walker was but still better than they have had between Felix and Walker.

I also think another component to consider is the massive amount of financial flexibility the Mariners will have in a few years. For 2020 they only have $85m committed in payroll and that's only going to continue going down. After the 2020 season they could have in excess of $100m to spend on contract extensions and free agents.

Obviously the player development is key, but I also think it'll be crucial to use that financial flexibility wisely in order to supplement the roster.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Question for you guys to debate:

With the Mariners looking to have a lot of financial flexibility going forward, when do they open the coffers and start looking at extensions/free agent additions that can contribute to the "competitive window"?

The Mariners will not make the playoffs in 2019 or 2020. If things work out well, they could be competitive in 2021 but I find it unlikely they realistically contend for the playoffs. That being said, here is the financial commitments the Mariners have by year (without taking into consideration arbitration, buyouts, etc.):

2019: $145m (right now)
2020: $85.8m
2021: $50m ($18.5m for Seager, $16.5m for Kikuchi, $5m buyout for Leake and $5m assuming Leblanc is retained but he has an option).
2020: Technically there is no financial commitment here since Seager, Kikuchi, and LeBlanc are the only ones under contract this year but they all have options.

How and when should the Mariners use this money?

 

[wazzu31]

I also think another component to consider is the massive amount of financial flexibility the Mariners will have in a few years. For 2020 they only have $85m committed in payroll and that's only going to continue going down. After the 2020 season they could have in excess of $100m to spend on contract extensions and free agents.

Obviously the player development is key, but I also think it'll be crucial to use that financial flexibility wisely in order to supplement the roster.

The whole financial aspect is one that I think sounds good when you’re talking about it. That correlates perfectly to the Seahawks where they were able to collect so much young cheap talent, except there will eventually be a problem where all of them will get a huge raise around the same time. There isn’t any committed payroll for 2022 as of right now, but if Jerry has done a good job then there is $100 plus million committed for 2025 for just a core, not the other 7-10 roster spots. It’s the one aspect of the rebuild I’ve never really heard anyone talk about, it’s just like the Astros gave themselves a 3 year window but after this year they aren’t going to be able to afford the whole team.

 

[wazzu31]

I'm overall content with everything that has been done since the team decided to sell. The Paxton trade is the only one that I think they could've done better on. I think we could've received a bit more financial relief or a better prospect for Bruce, but it is what it is.

One guy that has been kind of overlooked with Kelenic being the star of the trade is Justin Dunn. He has catapulted himself to the #2 prospect in the organization (#67 in baseball) per MLB pipeline. He currently has a 3.45 ERA with 90 Ks in 70 IP in AA.

Since being sent down to AA it seems Sheffield may have figured something out. In his 3 starts he has a 1.35 ERA and seems to have figured out his control issues as he had 41 walks in 55 IP in AAA but only has 4 walks in 20 innings at AA.

True, Dunn and Farley are the two overlooked guys who can be cheap core guys if they continue the path they have been on.

 

[seahawksfan234]

True, Dunn and Farley are the two overlooked guys who can be cheap core guys if they continue the path they have been on.

I'm really high on Fraley and I'm curious as to why his "rating" by the scouts hasn't improved with him absolutely destroying the minor leagues.

Maybe I'm just overly invested in numbers. I'd say the one thing Mariners fans have to be excited about is the outfield depth in the organization.

 

[seahawksfan234]

The whole financial aspect is one that I think sounds good when you’re talking about it. That correlates perfectly to the Seahawks where they were able to collect so much young cheap talent, except there will eventually be a problem where all of them will get a huge raise around the same time. There isn’t any committed payroll for 2022 as of right now, but if Jerry has done a good job then there is $100 plus million committed for 2025 for just a core, not the other 7-10 roster spots. It’s the one aspect of the rebuild I’ve never really heard anyone talk about, it’s just like the Astros gave themselves a 3 year window but after this year they aren’t going to be able to afford the whole team.

I've always found the financial aspect to sports really fascinating and I'm wondering how that money will be spent. Haniger is really the only one we'd be looking at extending at this point. Building on the point you made, I think that maintaining a strong farm system while contending is crucial to long-term success. Eventually if you build a team like the Astros, you won't be able to afford them all.

 

[NWinAZ]

How and when should the Mariners use this money?

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching. The M's have a lot of disfunction but developing pitching may be the biggest. Develop the hitters/fielders, and buy you some pitching when the time comes. Of course the question will always remain, will the time ever come?

*And when I speak of pitching, I mean top of the rotation pitching of course. We are quite good at developing back end starters and long relief pitchers. Unfortunately we use them as #1 and #2's and bullpen guys as setup men and closers.

 

[wazzu31]

I'm really high on Fraley and I'm curious as to why his "rating" by the scouts hasn't improved with him absolutely destroying the minor leagues.

Maybe I'm just overly invested in numbers. I'd say the one thing Mariners fans have to be excited about is the outfield depth in the organization.

I’ve yet to see him play so I can’t say totally why. But just looking at his numbers, he has hit every where he has played and he has a few serious defensive highlights since joining Tacoma. The twitter follow of the Mariners Minor League is worth a check out.