Lottery watch 2019 - quest for Zion

[wildturkey]

You're worried about the odds difference between 10th and 11th? These down years have corrupted you...

The percentage of jumping into the top 4 between 10th and 11th is significant though. If its 10th, the Lakers have a 13% chance. If its 11th, its 9%. That's a pretty steep drop given the circumstances. The Lakers need that pick to have its maximum value to have as a trade asset this Summer. They need to be up in the odds as high as they possibly can to give themselves the best chance to maximize that value. Their win streak over the last couple of weeks took themselves out of having a better shot at 8th best odds or so (which was realistic at one point) but now the best they can do is 10th.

 

[Shanemansj13]

The percentage of jumping into the top 4 between 10th and 11th is significant though. If its 10th, the Lakers have a 13% chance. If its 11th, its 9%. That's a pretty steep drop given the circumstances. The Lakers need that pick to have its maximum value to have as a trade asset this Summer. They need to be up in the odds as high as they possibly be to give themselves the best chance to maximize that value. Their win streak over the last couple of weeks took themselves out of having a better shot at 8th best odds or so (which was realistic at one point) but now they best they can do is 10th.

One slot makes a huge difference

 

[shopson67]

I'm not going to root against my team for 4% lottery odds. If they lose, that's fine.

Besides, Lakers could still get 10th if the Wolves beat the Raptors or Nuggets (Lakers hold the tiebreaker). Not necessarily likely, but possible. Of course, the Lakers could also beat Portland, lol.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I'm not going to root against my team for 4% lottery odds. If they lose, that's fine.

Besides, Lakers could still get 10th if the Wolves beat the Raptors or Nuggets (Lakers hold the tiebreaker). Not necessarily likely, but possible. Of course, the Lakers could also beat Portland, lol.

It's not rooting, it just happens. It really doesn't matter bc there are basically no Laker starters out on the court at this point and more so for the Lakers, most of these players or core won't be there next year. I love to see the Cavs compete with this young team and they do most games but they can't finish games.

4% better odds is a lot in the lottery.

 

[shopson67]

It's not rooting, it just happens. It really doesn't matter bc there are basically no Laker starters out on the court at this point and more so for the Lakers, most of these players or core won't be there next year. I love to see the Cavs compete with this young team and they do most games but they can't finish games.

4% better odds is a lot in the lottery.

If you get upset about it, it's rooting IMO. Regardless, when the Lakers get the #1 pick overall anyway, they aren't going to trade it unless AD is suddenly available without giving up the godfather deal.

 

[wildturkey]

I'm not going to root against my team for 4% lottery odds. If they lose, that's fine.

Besides, Lakers could still get 10th if the Wolves beat the Raptors or Nuggets (Lakers hold the tiebreaker). Not necessarily likely, but possible. Of course, the Lakers could also beat Portland, lol.

I root for my team to be the best they can be. Given the circumstances, getting a better lottery pick is the faster way to being the best is better than rooting for some randos in a Lakers jersey in late season NBA games who A)Won't be on the Lakers next year and B) Might not even be in the NBA next year. If anyone else doesn't view it that way, its fine. To each their own. But I'm thinking more long term. I'm for whatever puts the team in a better position to succeed. Winning meaningless games at the very end of the season when most of the league has already checked out doesn't do that imo

 

[shopson67]

I root for my team to be the best they can be. Given the circumstances, getting a better lottery pick is the faster way to being the best is better than rooting for some randos in a Lakers jersey in late season NBA games who A)Won't be on the Lakers next year and B) Might not even be in the NBA next year. If anyone else doesn't view it that way, its fine. To each their own. But I'm thinking more long term. I'm for whatever puts the team in a better position to succeed. Winning meaningless games at the very end of the season when most of the league has already checked out doesn't do that imo

That's great in most cases, but in this particular draft, how many difference making players do you see? 2 or 3 at the top, with a few more that could make a difference? I know the percentages have changed a bit in the new format, but the odds of jumping into the top 3 may look possible, but it just hasn't happened in the lottery era, at least not to #1. This year's draft pick is not going to sway an AD trade without being top 3, and even then I don't know if the Pelicans will willingly trade with the Lakers.

 

[Sparhawk]

4% better odds is a lot in the lottery.

Is it?
As a Sixers fan, we know all about lottery odds and tanking.
But, realistically, you are improving your chances by 1 in 25.

I wouldn't call that significant or "a lot".
Sure, it's better than what it was.

The top is going to be a clusterbuck because of all the close odds for top 4.
Memphis right now has an 86% chance to keep their pick.
Dallas is around 20%, whereas a few days ago they were at 34%.
That is significant.

Not really sure what a few wins now is going to do for Dallas, but maybe they just want the pick to convey and worry about next year? I mean, it seems like a top 5 pick would certainly help them now. And does that mean they have to tank for next season???

 

[Shanemansj13]

That's great in most cases, but in this particular draft, how many difference making players do you see? 2 or 3 at the top, with a few more that could make a difference? I know the percentages have changed a bit in the new format, but the odds of jumping into the top 3 may look possible, but it just hasn't happened in the lottery era, at least not to #1. This year's draft pick is not going to sway an AD trade without being top 3, and even then I don't know if the Pelicans will willingly trade with the Lakers.

I actually see Hunter and Culver being pretty good players also the kid from Gonzaga. I see this draft having more depth than others. I think this could be a really good draft like last years, but last years seems to be amazing so far.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Is it?
As a Sixers fan, we know all about lottery odds and tanking.
But, realistically, you are improving your chances by 1 in 25.

I wouldn't call that significant or "a lot".
Sure, it's better than what it was.

The top is going to be a clusterbuck because of all the close odds for top 4.
Memphis right now has an 86% chance to keep their pick.
Dallas is around 20%, whereas a few days ago they were at 34%.
That is significant.

Not really sure what a few wins now is going to do for Dallas, but maybe they just want the pick to convey and worry about next year? I mean, it seems like a top 5 pick would certainly help them now. And does that mean they have to tank for next season???

Over the years we have seen teams that only have a 7% chance or less getting into the top 3. It happens more than you think, 4% is a difference, not huge but a pretty good difference. 1 spot can make a difference, we will likely see that this year as well.

 

[dtgold88]

I root for my team to be the best they can be. Given the circumstances, getting a better lottery pick is the faster way to being the best is better than rooting for some randos in a Lakers jersey in late season NBA games who A)Won't be on the Lakers next year and B) Might not even be in the NBA next year. If anyone else doesn't view it that way, its fine. To each their own. But I'm thinking more long term. I'm for whatever puts the team in a better position to succeed. Winning meaningless games at the very end of the season when most of the league has already checked out doesn't do that imo

I get not being able to watch the game and cheer against my team. But I do know they are better off losing.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I get not being able to watch the game and cheer against my team. But I do know they are better off losing.

Yeah in the end I know the Cavs are better off losing but it's fun watching this young team compete hard against very good opponents. They just can't finish games, it's what the entire season has been and I accepted it a long time ago. So it's definitely not like I am rooting for them to lose, it's just the season in a nutshell.

 

[Sparhawk]

Over the years we have seen teams that only have a 7% chance or less getting into the top 3. It happens more than you think, 4% is a difference, not huge but a pretty good difference. 1 spot can make a difference, we will likely see that this year as well.

Well, that really isn't how percentages work.
We remember the long shots because that's exactly what they were. Long shots.
Like Cleveland when they jumped up.

But, if you simulated 100 tries, a 7% chance should fail 93% of the time, which is a lot.
There really isn't that much of a difference between 10% and 14%.
Just a 1 in 25 extra shot.

Not many folks remember that in the Simmons draft, it was chalk.
This draft is going to be bonkers.

 

[wildturkey]

That's great in most cases, but in this particular draft, how many difference making players do you see? 2 or 3 at the top, with a few more that could make a difference? I know the percentages have changed a bit in the new format, but the odds of jumping into the top 3 may look possible, but it just hasn't happened in the lottery era, at least not to #1. This year's draft pick is not going to sway an AD trade without being top 3, and even then I don't know if the Pelicans will willingly trade with the Lakers.

It's not really about the players there to me so much as it is the pick. That pick is going to be traded regardless because as long as Lebron James is on the roster, you need players that can win now. Even if its RJ Barrett or Ja Morant, they aren't going to be ready to help a team win now. But that pick being higher will bring value in trades. It could be Anthony Davis, but it could also be used any other deals. Like Bradley Beal for a package built around Ingram and that pick (say its #4) becomes something both teams could look at. The pick is an asset to be used in a variety of ways.

 

[SJ76]

Somebody splain the odds and wtf is going on with the lottery.

Knicks, Suns, Cavs all have a 14% chance for Zion? Then the Bulls have 12.5%?

And then it gets really stupid after that with the odds...

Hell I was under the impression Chicago had no chance for Zion

 

[Hambombs]

Zion to NY is almost inevitable at this point. Knicks win the lotto

 

[wildturkey]

Bummer. Wolves blow a lead late and lose to the Nuggets, thus netting them the 10th spot and bumping the Lakers to 11th

 

[Sparhawk]

Somebody splain the odds and wtf is going on with the lottery.

Knicks, Suns, Cavs all have a 14% chance for Zion? Then the Bulls have 12.5%?

And then it gets really stupid after that with the odds...

Hell I was under the impression Chicago had no chance for Zion

Yup. ATL is at 10.5%. WAS at 9%.
Then you have NO, DAL, MEM tied at 6%.

Top 6 teams have a 9-14% shot at winning, which is really good odds for ATL/WAS.
Could be a lot of action going on with protected picks between MEM/DAL.

MEM winning took them from 86% chance of keeping their pick to now 57.5%.
That's a huge swing.

DAL was in mid 30s, now 26.3% to keep their pick.

Going to be crazy.

 

[shopson67]

I actually see Hunter and Culver being pretty good players also the kid from Gonzaga. I see this draft having more depth than others. I think this could be a really good draft like last years, but last years seems to be amazing so far.

You named 3 guys beyond the top 3. 6 prospects is not deep by any stretch.

 

[Shanemansj13]

You named 3 guys beyond the top 3. 6 prospects is not deep by any stretch.

Not interested in naming them all but there are talents deep in this draft. It's just people want to only talk about the top 3. You have to get in the top 3...that isn't true. I think there are going to be some really good gets late in the 1st