Five real reason why drafting a QB means trading up

[Sharkinva]

Lets assume for a moment we are going to draft a QB. Lets also assume we are a bad team and finish say 6-10 as some have proclaimed.

So here are your five reasons why even in the event we finish 6-10, we would have ot trade up

1 The Browns... Likely to have the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft. So there is one of the 5 first rounders.
2. The Giants... Eli is getting old and they will likely draft his eventual if not immediate replacement
3. The Jets.. also in need of a QB
4. The Chargers... see Giants reason. Rivers is getting old,
5. The Cardinals..... Did I mention a lot of teams are long in the tooth at QB and might all be thinking, we need to get in on the cornucopia of QBs??


So assuming that five QBs are WORTHY of a first round draft pick as some have insinuated. Thats five teams right there, not including mind you our own Redskins or the 49ers since Im going ot go with the logic that Kirk might be signed by the niners.

So six teams 5 QBs while also ignoring the fact that we are basically saying take which ever guy is available.

Now throw in the fact that we likely identify the QB of our dreams (Mobile, strong arm, able to read defenses, and at least familiar with a pro set offense), a trade up would not only be possible, but likely... well unless we lose out the rest of the season that is.

 

[j_y19]

Lets assume for a moment we are going to draft a QB. Lets also assume we are a bad team and finish say 6-10 as some have proclaimed.

So here are your five reasons why even in the event we finish 6-10, we would have ot trade up

1 The Browns... Likely to have the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft. So there is one of the 5 first rounders.
2. The Giants... Eli is getting old and they will likely draft his eventual if not immediate replacement
3. The Jets.. also in need of a QB
4. The Chargers... see Giants reason. Rivers is getting old,
5. The Cardinals..... Did I mention a lot of teams are long in the tooth at QB and might all be thinking, we need to get in on the cornucopia of QBs??


So assuming that five QBs are WORTHY of a first round draft pick as some have insinuated. Thats five teams right there, not including mind you our own Redskins or the 49ers since Im going ot go with the logic that Kirk might be signed by the niners.

So six teams 5 QBs while also ignoring the fact that we are basically saying take which ever guy is available.

Now throw in the fact that we likely identify the QB of our dreams (Mobile, strong arm, able to read defenses, and at least familiar with a pro set offense), a trade up would not only be possible, but likely... well unless we lose out the rest of the season that is.

Its even worse than that. Not one of those 5 teams you have identified will be willing to trade up with us as they all need QBs. That is unless we offer the mother lode of deals........Where have we seen this movie before and how did that turn out?

 

[Yo Tee]

Lets assume for a moment we are going to draft a QB. Lets also assume we are a bad team and finish say 6-10 as some have proclaimed.

So here are your five reasons why even in the event we finish 6-10, we would have ot trade up

1 The Browns... Likely to have the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft. So there is one of the 5 first rounders.
2. The Giants... Eli is getting old and they will likely draft his eventual if not immediate replacement
3. The Jets.. also in need of a QB
4. The Chargers... see Giants reason. Rivers is getting old,
5. The Cardinals..... Did I mention a lot of teams are long in the tooth at QB and might all be thinking, we need to get in on the cornucopia of QBs??


So assuming that five QBs are WORTHY of a first round draft pick as some have insinuated. Thats five teams right there, not including mind you our own Redskins or the 49ers since Im going ot go with the logic that Kirk might be signed by the niners.

So six teams 5 QBs while also ignoring the fact that we are basically saying take which ever guy is available.

Now throw in the fact that we likely identify the QB of our dreams (Mobile, strong arm, able to read defenses, and at least familiar with a pro set offense), a trade up would not only be possible, but likely... well unless we lose out the rest of the season that is.

I'll agree with you, disagree with you and add on something.

Browns - Correct.
Jets - Correct (depending on how McCown finishes out the year, but more than likely, yes)

Giants, I don't think will draft a QB because they got Davis Webb in the last draft.
Rivers still has 2 years left on his contract he signed in 2015 so the Chargers might hold off til the next draft.
Cardinals might have a better record than the Redskins so they might not be someone you'd have to worry about.

Some teams you forgot:

Colts - The team just can't trust Andrew Luck to be healthy anymore. May need a plan B.
49ers - Hoyer and Beathard ain't getting the job done. Will definitely look to the draft for a QB.

With that being said, the draft is so unpredictable at times. DeShaun Watson was the 3rd QB picked, he's clearly one of the best QBs in the league right now. You don't need to jump into the top 5 to get a top QB. Look what that got Chicago with Trubisky. Getting a QB late in the draft has worked out for Dallas and Seattle in recent years. This is probably the most QB heavy draft class since 2014. Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Jackson, Mayfield, Rudolph. For arguments sake, if Washington finished 6-10, according to last years draft, that puts them around 8th or 9th. I don't know if you'd want to trade up if you're already gonna be in the top 8 and not EVERY team ahead of you have a top priority need of a QB. Chicago, Oakland and Tampa won't be drafting a QB so there's 3 teams that, as of right now, would pick ahead of Washington that wouldn't take a QB and also as of right now, Washington would pick 11th. Lots of options, lots of things could go down. I don't think if you're already in the top 10 you should trade up unless it's to #1 and that's very costly and doesn't seem worth it.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Several huge assumptions you have been making in this area all year. First of all you are assuming that the Redskins are going to give up on Cousins & you apparently base a lot of that on the thoughts of posters on this forum. Again - posters on this forum or fans in general have little to no influence on the Redskins future plans. We have absolutely no idea how this team will proceed in terms of the QB position.

Your 2nd assumption is that Snyder is like "Everyone else be damned. I am going to find the next RG3". I call BS on this. Again - we have no idea what is going through his head & how he is going to proceed. Anyone can see that there are injury & other issues which are hamstringing Cousins & not allowing a fair evaluation. You can't just assume that the team is also not aware of this.

Last assumption. The big 3 young, successful QBs at this time are Wentz, Watson & Prescott. Only one of those QBs was taken in the top 5 of the draft & Prescott was taken in the 4th rd. What leads anyone to believe that you need to be drafting in the top 2 or 3 of the draft to get a QB who will have success? That was the old formula, but is not necessarily the way to go any longer. Very likely that NFL front offices - including the Redskins - are very aware of this & don't necessarily feel the need to make a blockbuster trade just to find their next QB (if they go that route). Also not sure if the team wants to totally blow up this team & start over - we'll see.

I know that this makes for interesting debate, but I really think that a lot of these assumptions are somewhat flawed or at the least wild guesses.

 

[Yo Tee]

Several huge assumptions you have been making in this area all year. First of all you are assuming that the Redskins are going to give up on Cousins & you apparently base a lot of that on the thoughts of posters on this forum. Again - posters on this forum or fans in general have little to no influence on the Redskins future plans. We have absolutely no idea how this team will proceed in terms of the QB position.

Your 2nd assumption is that Snyder is like "Everyone else be damned. I am going to find the next RG3". I call BS on this. Again - we have no idea what is going through his head & how he is going to proceed. Anyone can see that there are injury & other issues which are hamstringing Cousins & not allowing a fair evaluation. You can't just assume that the team is also not aware of this.

Last assumption. The big 3 young, successful QBs at this time are Wentz, Watson & Prescott. Only one of those QBs was taken in the top 5 of the draft & Prescott was taken in the 4th rd. What leads anyone to believe that you need to be drafting in the top 2 or 3 of the draft to get a QB who will have success? That was the old formula, but is not necessarily the way to go any longer. Very likely that NFL front offices - including the Redskins - are very aware of this & don't necessarily feel the need to make a blockbuster trade just to find their next QB (if they go that route). Also not sure if the team wants to totally blow up this team & start over - we'll see.

I know that this makes for interesting debate, but I really think that a lot of these assumptions are somewhat flawed or at the least wild guesses.

Isn't that what every fan does? Assume things? That's all we can do because we aren't a fly on the wall of these exec and team meetings to discuss what's going to be done.

 

[Sharkinva]

I'll agree with you, disagree with you and add on something.

Browns - Correct.
Jets - Correct (depending on how McCown finishes out the year, but more than likely, yes)

Giants, I don't think will draft a QB because they got Davis Webb in the last draft.
Rivers still has 2 years left on his contract he signed in 2015 so the Chargers might hold off til the next draft.
Cardinals might have a better record than the Redskins so they might not be someone you'd have to worry about.

Some teams you forgot:

Colts - The team just can't trust Andrew Luck to be healthy anymore. May need a plan B.
49ers - Hoyer and Beathard ain't getting the job done. Will definitely look to the draft for a QB.

With that being said, the draft is so unpredictable at times. DeShaun Watson was the 3rd QB picked, he's clearly one of the best QBs in the league right now. You don't need to jump into the top 5 to get a top QB. Look what that got Chicago with Trubisky. Getting a QB late in the draft has worked out for Dallas and Seattle in recent years. This is probably the most QB heavy draft class since 2014. Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Jackson, Mayfield, Rudolph. For arguments sake, if Washington finished 6-10, according to last years draft, that puts them around 8th or 9th. I don't know if you'd want to trade up if you're already gonna be in the top 8 and not EVERY team ahead of you have a top priority need of a QB. Chicago, Oakland and Tampa won't be drafting a QB so there's 3 teams that, as of right now, would pick ahead of Washington that wouldn't take a QB and also as of right now, Washington would pick 11th. Lots of options, lots of things could go down. I don't think if you're already in the top 10 you should trade up unless it's to #1 and that's very costly and doesn't seem worth it.

Terry.. first there will be some sarcasm in this post..

OK now that we got that out of the way.

You seem to be forgetting who is running this team, and totally dismissing our track record in these matters. In particular 2012.

Even IF we are picking in the top ten, do you really think Dan and Bruce are going to SETTLE for the 3rd or 4th QB on the list?? For all intents they will be looking for a day one starter with ALL the traits I previously mentioned...

(Mobile, strong arm, able to read defenses, and at least familiar with a pro set offense) And i left off the one that apparently seems to be most pressing to some members of the fan base. Said named savior needs to be able to carry the team and make others around him better.

So while I agree with you, if we are picking top ten, we might be better served standing pat, the problem there is..

1. Another team may try to trade ahead of us
2. The guy we designate as the savior might not be there at 8-10 or later.
3. We are basically saying any of these five designated QBs is a day one starter and will improve the team.
4. We are discounting the IT factor which is apparently just as and possibly more important than any thing else we would be looking for in a QB.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Isn't that what every fan does? Assume things? That's all we can do because we aren't a fly on the wall of these exec and team meetings to discuss what's going to be done.

Understand, but at times these are presented as if they are facts & also like the opinions expressed in this forum represent the opinions of most fans. Far from it - there are way more Cousins detractors in this type of forum than in the real world. Just pointing out that there are different viewpoints on this & now is not the time to simply assume that the Skins have given up on Cousins or that they will make some type of blockbuster trade to move up in next year's draft.

 

[j_y19]

Understand, but at times these are presented as if they are facts & also like the opinions expressed in this forum represent the opinions of most fans. Far from it - there are way more Cousins detractors in this type of forum than in the real world. Just pointing out that there are different viewpoints on this & now is not the time to simply assume that the Skins have given up on Cousins or that they will make some type of blockbuster trade to move up in next year's draft.

Socal, its not necessarily that the team has given up on Cousins. The more likely outcome is that Cousins tests the FA waters no matter what the team offers. And once that happens, all bets are off.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Even IF we are picking in the top ten, do you really think Dan and Bruce are going to SETTLE for the 3rd or 4th QB on the list?? For all intents they will be looking for a day one starter with ALL the traits I previously mentioned...

(Mobile, strong arm, able to read defenses, and at least familiar with a pro set offense) And i left off the one that apparently seems to be most pressing to some members of the fan base. Said named savior needs to be able to carry the team and make others around him better.

Hmm - seems to describe Prescott & Wilson (although not big can throw strong). Where were they drafted again? Why does the potential QB of the future have to be selected with the 1st or 2nd overall pick? Also - don't think that Snyder at least somewhat remembers his last failure going this route & doesn't think that it could happen again. I think that you are giving him no credit in this area & presenting him like a cartoon character.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Socal, its not necessarily that the team has given up on Cousins. The more likely outcome is that Cousins tests the FA waters no matter what the team offers. And once that happens, all bets are off.

Agree. That is why I posted elsewhere that if the Redskins are intent on signing him they better move quickly & yes overpay him. If they drag this out & let this roll into July I think it is a lost cause. Also - don't discount the possibility of a 3rd tag as stupid as that sounds.

 

[Sharkinva]

Hmm - seems to describe Prescott & Wilson (although not big can throw strong). Where were they drafted again? Why does the potential QB of the future have to be selected with the 1st or 2nd overall pick? Also - do not think that Snyder at least somewhat remembers his last failure going this route & think that it could happen again? I think that you are giving him no credit in this area & presenting him like a cartoon character.

Socal.... please see that my opinion is not based in just what i see from posters here and on other sites. I base my what i think they will do on what Snyder and Dan have shown as their way of running things. I think the RG3 pick had just as much to do with Dans need to make the cool pick as it had to do with our need for a QB at that time.

I simply dont trust Bruce to wait it out and get a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round and peg him as our day one starter. Also if we are looking at a Watson/Wilson type... neither really fits what we do on offense, but they do check off the dynamic able to take a team on their back box real nice.

And for all that Kirk has performed in the stats column, I do think the possibility of him resigning with the Redskins will rest on the team making the playoffs and winning a game. Short of that, right or wrong I do think that they will look to move in a different direction. As others have stated, tell me you cant picture Dan in the owners box with Bruce sitting next to him and point down at the field at Wentz, or Prescott and saying... I want one of those Bruce.

 

[j_y19]

Agree. That is why I posted elsewhere that if the Redskins are intent on signing him they better move quickly & yes overpay him. If they drag this out & let this roll into July I think it is a lost cause. Also - don't discount the possibility of a 3rd tag as stupid as that sounds.

Yeah, but given BA's history here, there is no reason to believe that he will move quickly. In fact, I bet he ends up transition tagging him so that we at least get something if he signs elsewhere.

 

[Yo Tee]

Terry.. first there will be some sarcasm in this post..

OK now that we got that out of the way.

You seem to be forgetting who is running this team, and totally dismissing our track record in these matters. In particular 2012.

Even IF we are picking in the top ten, do you really think Dan and Bruce are going to SETTLE for the 3rd or 4th QB on the list?? For all intents they will be looking for a day one starter with ALL the traits I previously mentioned...

(Mobile, strong arm, able to read defenses, and at least familiar with a pro set offense) And i left off the one that apparently seems to be most pressing to some members of the fan base. Said named savior needs to be able to carry the team and make others around him better.

So while I agree with you, if we are picking top ten, we might be better served standing pat, the problem there is..

1. Another team may try to trade ahead of us
2. The guy we designate as the savior might not be there at 8-10 or later.
3. We are basically saying any of these five designated QBs is a day one starter and will improve the team.
4. We are discounting the IT factor which is apparently just as and possibly more important than any thing else we would be looking for in a QB.

Like I said, the draft was unpredictable this year, that might be a preview of years to come. You can't plan for everything. Because for all anyone knows, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers all retire this year. What happens then? All of a sudden, New Orleans, New York, Arizona, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh might be in the running for a QB. Maybe the decision to keep Cousins doesn't happen because he's a good QB, maybe it happens out of pure necessity? IDK, but like I've said before, if Washington goes .500 or above, you probably shouldn't be drafting a QB because that's pretty on par with the last 2 years.

 

[Yo Tee]

Understand, but at times these are presented as if they are facts & also like the opinions expressed in this forum represent the opinions of most fans. Far from it - there are way more Cousins detractors in this type of forum than in the real world. Just pointing out that there are different viewpoints on this & now is not the time to simply assume that the Skins have given up on Cousins or that they will make some type of blockbuster trade to move up in next year's draft.

I get that. I do think a trade needs to happen from Washington, whether its on the O-line or for a receiver, but I do think Washington needs to add another piece or two if they want to be successful this year and not next year. I also believe if they make a move before the trade deadline, that will signal their interest in keeping KC around.

 

[Sharkinva]

Yeah, but given BA's history here, there is no reason to believe that he will move quickly. In fact, I bet he ends up transition tagging him so that we at least get something if he signs elsewhere.

The trans tag has two problems.

If Kirk signs with another team, we can not trans tag or franchise tag another player until Kirks contract with his new team expires.

If we trans tag him and we dont match his offer from another team, we get no compensation.

So in effect, if we want to at least get SOMETHING for him leaving, we either

1. Give him the non exclusive tag and then take the 2 first rounders (or less) if he signs else where
2. Dont tag him at all and get a 3rd rounder as a Comp pick in 2019.

 

[j_y19]

Like I said, the draft was unpredictable this year, that might be a preview of years to come. You can't plan for everything. Because for all anyone knows, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers all retire this year. What happens then? All of a sudden, New Orleans, New York, Arizona, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh might be in the running for a QB. Maybe the decision to keep Cousins doesn't happen because he's a good QB, maybe it happens out of pure necessity? IDK, but like I've said before, if Washington goes .500 or above, you probably shouldn't be drafting a QB because that's pretty on par with the last 2 years.

If all of those guys retire this year, you know what happens? Cousins wins the lottery. Again. He will truly be able to name his own price.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

The trans tag has two problems.

If Kirk signs with another team, we can not trans tag or franchise tag another player until Kirks contract with his new team expires.

If we trans tag him and we dont match his offer from another team, we get no compensation.

So in effect, if we want to at least get SOMETHING for him leaving, we either

1. Give him the non exclusive tag and then take the 2 first rounders (or less) if he signs else where
2. Dont tag him at all and get a 3rd rounder as a Comp pick in 2019.

OK - just want to be clear on this. Are you basically 90-100% sure that Kirk Cousins will not be on the Redskins next season? Just checking.

 

[j_y19]

The trans tag has two problems.

If Kirk signs with another team, we can not trans tag or franchise tag another player until Kirks contract with his new team expires.

If we trans tag him and we dont match his offer from another team, we get no compensation.

So in effect, if we want to at least get SOMETHING for him leaving, we either

1. Give him the non exclusive tag and then take the 2 first rounders (or less) if he signs else where
2. Dont tag him at all and get a 3rd rounder as a Comp pick in 2019.

Fuck. Didn't realize that. We are screwed. We may very well lose him and only get a 3rd round pick. For a franchise QB. How could we get this so fucked up????

 

[j_y19]

OK - just want to be clear on this. Are you basically 90-100% sure that Kirk Cousins will not be on the Redskins next season? Just checking.

I personally say that it is in the 60% range he is gone.

 

[Sharkinva]

OK - just want to be clear on this. Are you basically 90-100% sure that Kirk Cousins will not be on the Redskins next season? Just checking.

I would say moe like 80% sure he wont be on our roster next year. There is always the off chance that

1. We get a wild card and win a game
2. We miss the playoffs, but there is enough buzz behind Cousins that they resign him any way.

At the end of the day, I think this is another prove it year. And what they want him to prove might be the sticking point.