POLL Will Denver regret giving RW the 245 million extension?

[SpringStein]

Yes they "played" until those ages but the decline was well in advance of the retirement date, several years in fact ( which is why they retired). RW hasn't been a pocket passer and his biggest asset was being able to buy time, but that ability is pretty much gone.

Ther are some outs for Denver if he starts declining. This from The Athletic:

The first potential out on the deal would come after the 2025 season, when the Broncos would be able to move on from Wilson, who would then be 37, and save $27.2 million while absorbing a $31.2 million dead-money hit. After 2026, the dead-money hit would drop to $12.8 million. There is no guaranteed money on the contract after the 2024 season. The structure paints an obvious championship window for the Broncos, even if it’s one the team isn’t limiting itself to: four years, Wilson’s age-34 through age-38 seasons.

 

[VikingFan2k2]

Yes they "played" until those ages but the decline was well in advance of the retirement date, several years in fact ( which is why they retired). RW hasn't been a pocket passer and his biggest asset was being able to buy time, but that ability is pretty much gone.

Yeah, very few QBs are effective into their late 30s and 40s.

 

[PDay8810]

Geez...it's NFL QB,
It's the market

 

[Schmoopy1000]

well realistically I see this contract going to 2026. Not 2028
After 2026 season he would be re evaluated. Whether to extend longer (brady like) or could be cut. (Retire)
After 2026 season he will have played 15 seasons. & for a QB that uses his fleet of foot. That would be pretty impressive.

 

[Shanemansj13]

He will be fine for the next 3-4 years. It seems like people say that about a lot of aging QB’s. He now has a solid OL. Denver got a top 10 QB with a team on the rise. They did what any team would do, find a legit QB.

 

[cdumler7]

I know Russ wants to get paid, but if he wants another title taking up a big percentage of the teams cap doesn’t help you get there … Brady was smart, he’s still rich enough and has a hand full of rings taking way less money than he could have …

If you look at the contract design he isn't taking up huge chunks of the cap for at least the first 3-years of the deal. 7.7% this year, 9.8% next year, and beyond that we don't know how the cap will go up as huge tv deals are expected to hit around that time. Right now if they go off the average rise of the cap then it would be around 13.8% for his 3rd year. Those are not huge QB hits. And at that point they can start re-working the deal with ease to keep his cap hit low.

And I don't know how you can look at this deal and say that Wilson maximized the money he could have gotten. We are talking just above $42 million a year for the 7-years of the contract. That isn't even top-5 money for the position on a per year basis right now. Then you throw in Lamar, Burrow, Herbert all coming up for contracts soon and good chance Wilson is pushed out of the top-10 within 2-years if not sooner.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

If you look at the contract design he isn't taking up huge chunks of the cap for at least the first 3-years of the deal. 7.7% this year, 9.8% next year, and beyond that we don't know how the cap will go up as huge tv deals are expected to hit around that time. Right now if they go off the average rise of the cap then it would be around 13.8% for his 3rd year. Those are not huge QB hits. And at that point they can start re-working the deal with ease to keep his cap hit low.

And I don't know how you can look at this deal and say that Wilson maximized the money he could have gotten. We are talking just above $42 million a year for the 7-years of the contract. That isn't even top-5 money for the position on a per year basis right now. Then you throw in Lamar, Burrow, Herbert all coming up for contracts soon and good chance Wilson is pushed out of the top-10 within 2-years if not sooner.

When Burrow and Herbert get around 55M AAV with close to or all of it guaranteed this thread will look pretty silly.

 

[cdumler7]

When Burrow and Herbert get around 55M AAV with close to or all of it guaranteed this thread will look pretty silly.

Agreed. Kind of like many thought it crazy to hand Mahomes his contract but now it is looking pretty nice and will only keep looking nicer as time goes on.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Agreed. Kind of like many thought it crazy to hand Mahomes his contract but now it is looking pretty nice and will only keep looking nicer as time goes on.

Yeah, when there were folks saying that KC handed Mahomes a bad contract that was kinda my queue to put 90% of the "bad QB contract" posts on a hard mute.

 

[cdumler7]

Yeah, when there were folks saying that KC handed Mahomes a bad contract that was kinda my queue to put 90% of the "bad QB contract" posts on a hard mute.

It just shows how few of people fully understand contracts in the NFL. They see the overall money or even see the how much is being paid per year and panic. Heck even once the ink is dried on the contract most contracts eventually get re-done so the numbers you see today will not be the same numbers in a few years. They add the extra years to the contract to make it look pretty, but the odds of a player seeing the true value of a contract is slim.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

If you look at the contract design he isn't taking up huge chunks of the cap for at least the first 3-years of the deal. 7.7% this year, 9.8% next year, and beyond that we don't know how the cap will go up as huge tv deals are expected to hit around that time. Right now if they go off the average rise of the cap then it would be around 13.8% for his 3rd year. Those are not huge QB hits. And at that point they can start re-working the deal with ease to keep his cap hit low.

And I don't know how you can look at this deal and say that Wilson maximized the money he could have gotten. We are talking just above $42 million a year for the 7-years of the contract. That isn't even top-5 money for the position on a per year basis right now. Then you throw in Lamar, Burrow, Herbert all coming up for contracts soon and good chance Wilson is pushed out of the top-10 within 2-years if not sooner.

Here is a good breakdown …

Broncos, Russell Wilson Extension: Analyzing the New Details | Sports Illustrated Mile High Huddle: Denver Broncos News, Analysis and More

 

[PDay8810]

When Burrow and Herbert get around 55M AAV with close to or all of it guaranteed this thread will look pretty silly.

Silly started when Prescott got his. The comments shared here required a fan of said team to defend.

It's like so many are just now understanding the value of good NFL QB play.

Going to be a shit load of swing and misses over the next ten years. It's the cost of doing business today.

 

[PDay8810]

Yeah, when there were folks saying that KC handed Mahomes a bad contract that was kinda my queue to put 90% of the "bad QB contract" posts on a hard mute.

Still didn't see much of this. Most saw the value in the security....but as you may know, he is beloved here

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Still didn't see much of this. Most saw the value in the security....but as you may know, he is beloved here

Not so much here. Now the dregs of Twitter…

 

[PDay8810]

It just shows how few of people fully understand contracts in the NFL.

Well sure till it's the team they favor

 

[cdumler7]

Here is a good breakdown …

Broncos, Russell Wilson Extension: Analyzing the New Details | Sports Illustrated Mile High Huddle: Denver Broncos News, Analysis and More

Yeah I've read that. That is the site I work for and know Bob Morris personally. Everything I said are things he pointed to in just greater detail. To me the reality of this deal is it is closer to a 5-year deal (those first two years included) with the last two years of the deal as an opportunity to either renegotiate the deal and give Wilson more guarantees but lower cap hits or decide that Wilson has had enough for his career. I would be shocked if Wilson saw that last $95 million of this deal at least with how the contract is written right now. So the reality is a majority of the money is what you see in the first 5 years of the deal. And if you throw out the last two this contract looks even better for the Broncos.

 

[PDay8810]

if you throw out the last two this contract looks even better for the Broncos.

Yes Sir...Today's NFL way of doing business.

Dallas fans flipped on Cooper's deal without realizing it was a two year deal. The guaranteed money is the only valid number

 

[cdumler7]

Yes Sir...Today's NFL way of doing business.

Dallas fans flipped on Cooper's deal without realizing it was a two year deal. The guaranteed money is the only valid number

Exactly. It is why NFL contracts make the cap pretty much nonexistent. It still matters some but there will always be ways of manipulating it if the owner is willing to dish out more and more guaranteed money. Part of what made this contract with Wilson possible was getting the owner in place. He was the one last minute that came in and said up the guaranteed. Wilson's camp wanted 75% guaranteed where Broncos wanted it closer to 50%. Ended up around 68% if I remember right.

 

[Clayton]

Russell Wilson is such a unique QB that his two closest statisitcal comparisons are Cam Newton and Peyton Manning. If you think he can age like Peyton then you're probably getting about 4 more years of elite top tier QB play and this topic is a total joke. If you think he is like Cam Newton then you think he is going to flop completely in Denver. Truth is probably somewhere inbetween but its a no-brainer move for Denver imo.

Not sure I agree with the popular narrative that Seattle is in the bottom tier of teams next year. They had one bad year in like a decade and now everyone is acting like Wilson is washed and their roster will have the top pick next year. They were in the toughest division in football and had a down year. Not a lot to freak out about.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Yeah I've read that. That is the site I work for and know Bob Morris personally. Everything I said are things he pointed to in just greater detail. To me the reality of this deal is it is closer to a 5-year deal (those first two years included) with the last two years of the deal as an opportunity to either renegotiate the deal and give Wilson more guarantees but lower cap hits or decide that Wilson has had enough for his career. I would be shocked if Wilson saw that last $95 million of this deal at least with how the contract is written right now. So the reality is a majority of the money is what you see in the first 5 years of the deal. And if you throw out the last two this contract looks even better for the Broncos.

Denver will cut him first before he sees that 95 million cause he won't restructure to help the team.