Whigh two players would you use as your keepers?

[TrustMeIamRight]

I split a team with my brother in a Head to Head keeper league. You are allowed 2 keepers, but the kicker is -- you lose the draft for the round they were drafted in the year before. If they were waiver wire pick ups. They are designated a 12th round pick. You can keep the players for.multiple years, but you divide the round by 2 so the most you can keep a player is 3 years.
It is standard scoring for hitters, but you get 2 points for a stolen base.
The scoring for pitching is tough, as you lose points for hits, walks, HBP, runs allowed and losses. So premier pitchers are very valuable.

Here are my options:
1. Carlos Correa. He is my given. Waiver wire pick up early in the season and sat on him til he was called up. Will cost me a 12th round pick this year, 6th round next year, 3rd round the last year.

2. Matt Harvey. I traded for him last season. He was a 12th round pick keeper, so to keep him, it would cost me a 6th round pick. Starting pitching is a premium position and I could use him as a 3rd round keeper next year.

3. Corey Seager. Picked him up off waivers same time as Correa last year. Will cost a 13th round pick as Correa will take up the 12th round. Huge upside, plays at a position where premium players are limited. Could he have a sophomore slump when pitchers adjust to him?

I have the 4th pick in the draft this year. Also relevant is transaction fees in this league are crazy. It is $10 to drop/add, trade, etc. We were muddle of the pack last season on transactions and had around 700 dollars worth. Many teams will stream starting pitchers -- and it really adds up, so have 2 or even 3 top tier pitchers is a huge advantage. That is why I put Harvey in the mix.

So who would you keep and why? If I didn't explain it well enough. Please ask any question you'd like

 

[TKOSpikes]

Double your short stop!

The value is too good to pass up. While Harvey in the 6th is good, locking up ss/mi with possible elite production that late is a big step towards a winning team.

I fully understand the risk with sophomore slumps and over-hyping these young ss, but I think it's worth it.

What arms are available in the draft?

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

There are a lot of top tier arms still on the board. Off the top of my head. The keepers haven't been announced yet, but if I had to guess -- DeGrom, Arrieta, Keuchel, Archer, Syndegaard, Jose Fernandez and possibly Gerrit Cole.

Basically it is the breakout pitchers from the last year or guys who missed time with an injury (Fernandez)

You aren't allowed to use players drafted in the 1st 3 rounds as keepers. So there are still 8-10 top tier pitchers left.

 

[TKOSpikes]

That settles it for me. Keep the hitters, draft the pitching.

 

[Chef99]

Double your short stop!

The value is too good to pass up. While Harvey in the 6th is good, locking up ss/mi with possible elite production that late is a big step towards a winning team.

I fully understand the risk with sophomore slumps and over-hyping these young ss, but I think it's worth it.

What arms are available in the draft?

I'm with you all the way on this one. Great value.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I need more info to give you an answer... How many teams and what positions do you start??

If you only start one SS and have Seager at UT, then that takes away lots of his value...

The other thing is this is H2H points, in any H2H pitching depth is key.... as you even mentioned most teams will stream pitchers, if you are stud all over the place, you won't need to waste your money on pitchers...

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I need more info to give you an answer... How many teams and what positions do you start??

If you only start one SS and have Seager at UT, then that takes away lots of his value...

The other thing is this is H2H points, in any H2H pitching depth is key.... as you even mentioned most teams will stream pitchers, if you are stud all over the place, you won't need to waste your money on pitchers...

12 team league
We have to start 5 SP
We have to start a SS and 2B/SS

 

[tlance]

I need more info to give you an answer... How many teams and what positions do you start??

If you only start one SS and have Seager at UT, then that takes away lots of his value...

The other thing is this is H2H points, in any H2H pitching depth is key.... as you even mentioned most teams will stream pitchers, if you are stud all over the place, you won't need to waste your money on pitchers...

This.

If it is a points league, I am keeping Harvey for sure. Pitching is everything in points leagues. Even if it isn't points, I would keep Harvey in the 6th. Seager is a good young hitter and the 13th is good value, but he lacks the upside that Correa has. His BABIP was through the roof last year, so his BA is sure to fall.

I am projecting:

.280, 20 HR and 5 SB for Seager this year. You can find a MI who has a chance to approach that value in the 13th, finding an SP with elite upside in the 6th is more difficult, IMO.

Also, keep in mind, since Harvey is now 2+ years removed from TJ, he should be even stronger this year.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

This.

If it is a points league, I am keeping Harvey for sure. Pitching is everything in points leagues. Even if it isn't points, I would keep Harvey in the 6th. Seager is a good young hitter and the 13th is good value, but he lacks the upside that Correa has. His BABIP was through the roof last year, so his BA is sure to fall.

I am projecting:

.280, 20 HR and 5 SB for Seager this year. You can find a MI who has a chance to approach that value in the 13th, finding an SP with elite upside in the 6th is more difficult, IMO.

Also, keep in mind, since Harvey is now 2+ years removed from TJ, he should be even stronger this year.

I wish Harvey hadn't thrown so many innings last year. That is the only thing that scares me about him.

The only other issue to think about is -- I will have Harvey for a 6th this year, but next year, if I want to keep him, it'd be a 3rd and I couldn't keep him after that. Seager would be a 12th this year, 6th next year, 3rd in two years.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I wish Harvey hadn't thrown so many innings last year. That is the only thing that scares me about him.

The only other issue to think about is -- I will have Harvey for a 6th this year, but next year, if I want to keep him, it'd be a 3rd and I couldn't keep him after that. Seager would be a 12th this year, 6th next year, 3rd in two years.

Which is exactly why I would keep the hitters.

Although I am assuming you DO use a mi spot.

What is your starting roster (hitting and pitching)?

 

[Chef99]

Isn't it possible Seager gets 3B eligibilty down the road as well?

I'm not gonna debate too much 'cuz I love Harvey...but pitching is deep.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Isn't it possible Seager gets 3B eligibilty down the road as well?

I'm not gonna debate too much 'cuz I love Harvey...but pitching is deep.

Pitching is deep, BUT it is also very top heavy... if you don't have a top 10 SP, it will be very hard to have a top rotation... IDK if Harvey is the play here... I do know that there is no wrong move with those 3... Do we know where Seager is batting yet??

 

[tlance]

Isn't it possible Seager gets 3B eligibilty down the road as well?

I'm not gonna debate too much 'cuz I love Harvey...but pitching is deep.

Everyone always says pitching is deep. It really is not.

There are about 15-20 guys who are awesome, about 20 more who are above average with elite upside. After that, you are either banking on a breakout or talking a mediocre arm. A 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7 K/9 really is not all that valuable. Go ahead and load up on those guys, but your pitching staff won't be very good unless you hit the breakouts.

 

[Chef99]

Everyone always says pitching is deep. It really is not.

There are about 15-20 guys who are awesome, about 20 more who are above average with elite upside. After that, you are either banking on a breakout or talking a mediocre arm. A 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7 K/9 really is not all that valuable. Go ahead and load up on those guys, but your pitching staff won't be very good unless you hit the breakouts.

I'll grant you that, but wouldn't it also depend on the draft and what pitchers are available? Depending upon whom is kept, the 4th pick in the draft could net someone. Or do you think keeping Harvey and drafting another stud pitcher is the better short and long term option?

 

[TKOSpikes]

First three rounds will have enough studs-to-very good SP.

...and you have to hit the rest anyway... Harvey in the 6th? Likely not, but maybe a Carlos Martinez type.

Ya know what you won't hit? Two top five MI in rounds 12/13 this year and 6/7 next year... and if they turn out elite the third year would be like drafting a Hanley/Tulo combo in the 3rd/4th

 

[da55bums]

that few of keepers - go with bats....more solid play. Harvey has the highest odds of out for the season injury.

 

[Chef99]

Btw...I'm always banking on a breakout.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Which is exactly why I would keep the hitters.

Although I am assuming you DO use a mi spot.

What is your starting roster (hitting and pitching)?

We had the MI spot last year, but I have to check with my brother, as the guys in this league love to make rule changes. It is basically a league full of rich executives in my brother's company with money to burn. Wouldn't surprise me in the least bit if they didn't this year. We went from 1 RP to 3 last year. Saves went from 5 points to 7.

The payout are hilarious. My brother and I took first last year in our division. We won 100 bux (it is $200 per team). 3 division winners, 2 wild card teams. #1 overall team (record, tie breaker is total points) gets a bye. We had lost 3 games all year going into the playoffs -- the payouts are 60% for 1st, 30% for 2nd, 10% for 3rd.

First playoff game -- team has a monster week and we lose. 3/4th place game -- team has monster week and we lose. So we finished with the best record, won our division, finished with the most total points and won 100 bux (or lost round 800 after entry fee and transaction fees)

Guy who took 1st -- finished .500, won in the semifinals against the only team he would have beat, then won the finals against the only team he would have beat (out of the 4 of us left). I believe he ended up winning around 6500.

It is why I'm kicking myself right now trying to figure out a final decision. Last year, my keepers killed me. Thanks Anthony Rendon, Corey Kluber

I can still do Rendon too for a 6th rounder if I wanted.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Pitching is deep, BUT it is also very top heavy... if you don't have a top 10 SP, it will be very hard to have a top rotation... IDK if Harvey is the play here... I do know that there is no wrong move with those 3... Do we know where Seager is batting yet??

Yeah -- that is my thought process with Harvey. There are a group of 16-18 top tier pitchers. If I kept Harvey -- my guess is, my choice at #4 will be between Kershaw, Donaldson, Cabrera, Stanton. 1st 3 will be Harper, Trout, Goldschmidt -- that is my guess.

I could go Kershaw and Harvey, have my top two set and worry about some 2nd tier pitchers around round 9 or 10. Or I can get an elite bat at #4, and use my 2nd or 3rd round pick to get a pitcher to team up with Harvey and still get a top 10 pitcher. Kershaw is so tough to pass up though.

 

[Chef99]

Yeah -- that is my thought process with Harvey. There are a group of 16-18 top tier pitchers. If I kept Harvey -- my guess is, my choice at #4 will be between Kershaw, Donaldson, Cabrera, Stanton. 1st 3 will be Harper, Trout, Goldschmidt -- that is my guess.

I could go Kershaw and Harvey, have my top two set and worry about some 2nd tier pitchers around round 9 or 10. Or I can get an elite bat at #4, and use my 2nd or 3rd round pick to get a pitcher to team up with Harvey and still get a top 10 pitcher. Kershaw is so tough to pass up though.

So, you could conceivably keep Harvey and Kluber - and draft Kershaw with your first pick, is this correct?