Where should Ezekiel Elliot drop?

[iowajerms]

Many of the fantasy football sites put him 1st round and Top 3-4 before his suspension. On ESPN cheat sheet for PPR, he is at #12 RB and #27 overall. I am thinking about looking at him late 3rd round-4th round. I have either RBs or WRs first two rounds (PPR, 12 teams). Here is my RB list so far, I have Elliot #13 RB, but not sure if I want to.

1. David Johnson - ARI - 1st round
2, LeVeon Bell - PIT - 1
3. LeSean McCoy - BUF - 1,2
4. Melvin Gordon - LAC - late 1,2
5. Jordan Howard - CHI - late 1,2
6. Devonta Freeman - ATL - 2
7. Jay Ajayi - MIA - 2
8. DeMarco Murray - TEN - 2
9. Lamar Miller - HOU - 2,3
10. Leonard Fournette - JAX - 3
11. Todd Gurley - LAR - 3
12. Carlos Hyde - SF - 3,4
13. Ezekiel Elliot - DAL - 3,4

Here is my overall. I have only done 15 WRs of these 13 RBs. I have not looked into other positions so I stopped when I think those other positions might be included.

1. RB D Johnson - ARI - 1
2. RB L Bell - PIT - 1 - Should I be worried about him and his contract?
3. WR A Brown - PIT - 1
4. WR J Jones - ATL - 1
5. WR O Beckham - NYG - 1
6. WR M Evans - TB - 1
7. WR D Bryant - DAL - 1 - Is this a good gamble? Nobody has him this high. Could he be more relied on?
8. WR A Green - CIN - 1
9. WR J Nelson - GB - 1
10. RB L McCoy - BUF - 1,2
11. RB M Gordon - LAC - late 1,2
12. RB J Howard - CHI - late 1,2
13. RB D Freeman - ATL - 2 - Should I be worried about his split carries with Coleman?
14. WR M Thomas - NO - 2
15. WR T Hilton - IND - 2
16. RB J Ajayi - MIA - 2
17. WR A Cooper - OAK - 2
18. RB D Murray - TEN - 2

 

[MilkSpiller22]

How many playoff teams?? very important to know whether to take a risk on Zeke or not... If there is only 2 playoff teams, then you need every win you can just to make it... But the more playoff teams, then your goal is different, you need to just make it, and then you can dominate in the playoffs with Zeke...

 

[iowajerms]

I have looked at ESPN and Sporting News. I also looked at Fantasy Pros as well.

 

[iowajerms]

How many playoff teams?? very important to know whether to take a risk on Zeke or not... If there is only 2 playoff teams, then you need every win you can just to make it... But the more playoff teams, then your goal is different, you need to just make it, and then you can dominate in the playoffs with Zeke...

I will ask. We had 8 teams last year, I believe.

 

[iowajerms]

How many playoff teams?? very important to know whether to take a risk on Zeke or not... If there is only 2 playoff teams, then you need every win you can just to make it... But the more playoff teams, then your goal is different, you need to just make it, and then you can dominate in the playoffs with Zeke...

The one in control of the league believes it is 6 playoff teams, but might be 8.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

The one in control of the league believes it is 6 playoff teams, but might be 8.

how many teams?? if you can coast into the playoffs, I would be taking Zeke in the second.... maybe even the first with a late first round pick...

 

[iowajerms]

how many teams?? if you can coast into the playoffs, I would be taking Zeke in the second.... maybe even the first with a late first round pick...

12 teams in the leage (6 or 8 playoff teams)
PPR

Our draft is this Sunday.

 

[averagejoe]

In the process of updating our rankings. Tough call.
If the suspension holds, right now leaning towards the 6th round.
Ludicrous in my opinion to bump him any higher for a guy who will essentially play 6 regular season fantasy weeks NOT including the fantasy playoffs.
But doesn't matter where we rank him - there's always some nut who will pull the trigger early.

 

[iowajerms]

Last year, I drafted a great team. For the first month, I was the highest scoring team, but other teams would have a crazy week when they faced me. I was by far #1 in PF and by far #1 in PA.

Then all of my players started getting injured, and I pick up good players, and they got injured. And I kind of gave up after that.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

honestly can't see myself ending up with Zeke in any redraft leagues this year.
I'm with you - 3rd/4th round pick at the earliest, but that means someone else will more than likely take the plunge in front of me.

 

[TREFF]

Last year, I drafted a great team. For the first month, I was the highest scoring team, but other teams would have a crazy week when they faced me. I was by far #1 in PF and by far #1 in PA.

Then all of my players started getting injured, and I pick up good players, and they got injured. And I kind of gave up after that.

Exactly. . be careful with what Milk is advising. Unless ALL teams make the playoffs, NO team can expect to coast into the playoffs, regardless of how great you think you can draft and manage a team compared to your league mates. Shit happens every year. And surely you know as well as I, that many times even the top scoring team can miss the playoffs. I wouldn't even consider the "playoffs factor" when considering where to draft Zeke.

Personally, the only thing that its dependant on, is his appeal, and possible legal actions, and of course when your draft date in relation to those things is.
If Your draft is tomorrow, i wouldn't touch him until round 3 or 4. If your draft is after his appeal is heard, maybe he moves back up a round ir 2, or even back into the first. If he files a lawsuit against the league and obtains an injunction, he's still a top 3 pick imho, as the legal system likely won't actually hear the case until 2018.

 

[iowajerms]

Right now, the strategy I am thinking...

If Johnson or Bell are available, I will pick them, but will go with WR for 1st round.
2nd round - pick a RB, unless I got Johnson or Bell, then WR
3rd round - most likely a RB, but if a WR I have high drops, I will pick them or if an elite QB is still available for some reason.
4th round - maybe Zeke here, most likely WR, possibly QB
5th round - QB or TE, or if there is a player on my list that has really dropped
6th round - QB (if didn't get one in 4th or 5th), possibly RB/WR

Then I will go after defenses and kickers, then fill in the roster with my highest ranking players. I thought about it, I want to get 2 starting RBs that could play all season before I get Elliot, who will be out of pads for 6 weeks.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

This is a great draft to have a top 2 pick... to be guaranteed either Bell or Johnson and then in the third round take Zeke... DAMN that is a scary team come week 8...

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

I wouldn't personally touch him before R5, but my hunch is he'll go to one of the teams near the 2/3 turn in a lot of leagues.

 

[broncosmitty]

I might take him as a fourth RB. But not as my third.

So I'd be no earlier than the 7th. Probably not even then. Doubt I draft him in any leagues tbh. Top 20 back is not possible for a guy who misses six games.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

Mid-1 if you have a Cowboy fan in your league.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

If Johnson or Bell are available, I will pick them, but will go with WR for 1st round.
2nd round - pick a RB, unless I got Johnson or Bell, then WR
3rd round - most likely a RB, but if a WR I have high drops, I will pick them or if an elite QB is still available for some reason.
4th round - maybe Zeke here, most likely WR, possibly QB
5th round - build RB/WR depth
6th round - build RB/WR depth
7th round - build RB/WR depth
8th round - QB/TE time, if you see a bunch of both that you still like, continue to build RB/WR depth
9th round - build RB/WR depth
10th round - at this stage, you should have your starting QB/TE, so build RB/WR depth
11th round - build RB/WR depth

Then go after defenses and kickers in rounds 12 - the end of draft

just some tweaks to your strategy that would sync it up with how I draft, if you are interested at all.
I would not take starting K or DST until I have at LEAST 1 bench RB and 1 bench WR.

 

[averagejoe]

This is a great draft to have a top 2 pick... to be guaranteed either Bell or Johnson and then in the third round take Zeke... DAMN that is a scary team come week 8...

Come week 8... when your team is either 1-6 or 2-5 and you have 6 games left in your season....
yeah, those last 6 will be awesome!

Maybe its apples to oranges, but...

• Kenneth Dixon was going in the 7th round and he was only going to miss 4 games.
• In a similar situation I took suspended 3-game LeVeon Bell last year early in the 2nd. Lost all 3 of those games.
• Rob Gronkowski typically goes in the late 1st or early 2nd, but if he misses a few games due to injury, he can wreck a fantasy team.

So to feel confident that Zeke in the 3rd or 4th is safe or safer...? I disagree.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I will take him when I do not like the group I'm staring at during my pick. There is no boundary.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I will take him when I do not like the group I'm staring at during my pick. There is no boundary.

Perfect post.