Week 6 Locks & Picks

[CowboyB]

Whoa whoa whoa - when it comes to betting on sports we seem to learn things...and then time passes and we have to learn them all over again. What was my re-learning experience? Don't drive up to Vegas on a Tuesday and place your bets too early. For some reason I ignored that rule and got my parlay busted by Paxton Lynch. $1400 swing. Ah well. I'm still breathing and my kid still gets pepperoni on her pizza.

So what's going on this week? Week 6 can be tricky as teams start settling into what we perceive them to be.

At some point I have to just say I was wrong. Well I was wrong about the Bengals. I don't think they are a terrible team - but I think they will continue to have a terrible year. Maybe this is the team's way of rebelling against a coaching staff trying to coach them into players who are capable of managing their emotions. Having said that Tom Brady is on another one of his "fuck you" tours. Fucking every single fanbase who talks shit about his integrity - well lack there of. I think the Patriots are a lock. At pretty much any point spread. Those fans in Rhode Island are going be loud.

Another team I have been wrong about is the Chiefs. I thought they have another strong year but pretty much everything has shown me they are in a down year. The Raiders are flying high and will be at home in a pickem Take the Raiders!!

Other picks I like: Falcons, Tennessee, & Cowboys.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Not sure I feel anything is a lock this week, but games I like

ATL...Falcons could not have expected 2-0 on this road trip so they're playing with house money, I can see this being a closer game...3-4 pts

KC...coming off bye vs a DEF that's not really stopping anybody. Chiefs D is better than the Steelers game for sure.

NE is going to win ...agree CIN needs to play with a pissed off edge again, but that's a lotta points against a pretty good DEF.

TN is better than CLE but I dunno about that spread....scary.

Good luck bro.

 

[bt08]

I do like the Vikes to stay undefeated....

 

[CowboyB]

Not sure I feel anything is a lock this week, but games I like

ATL...Falcons could not have expected 2-0 on this road trip so they're playing with house money, I can see this being a closer game...3-4 pts

KC...coming off bye vs a DEF that's not really stopping anybody. Chiefs D is better than the Steelers game for sure.

NE is going to win ...agree CIN needs to play with a pissed off edge again, but that's a lotta points against a pretty good DEF.

TN is better than CLE but I dunno about that spread....scary.

Good luck bro.

Gratzi!

 

[CowboyB]

I do like the Vikes to stay undefeated....

Only because they have Sam Bradford though..

 

[bt08]

Only because they have Sam Bradford though..

you know it

 

[CowboyB]

If I had a gun to my head I'd pick the 49ers. Everything is working against the 9ers. Road team. West Coast traveling East for an early game. Bills coming off a steak of decency.

But I think that team rallies for their brother Kaepernick and they keep it close.

I won't touch it though.

 

[Nosferatu]

If I had a gun to my head I'd pick the 49ers. Everything is working against the 9ers. Road team. West Coast traveling East for an early game. Bills coming off a steak of decency.

But I think that team rallies for their brother Kaepernick and they keep it close.

I won't touch it though.

I do declare that there will be all kinds a red, white and blue all over Mad Jack's #7 this Sunday! Bills win rather easily...

 

[CowboyB]

I do declare that there will be all kinds a red, white and blue all over Mad Jack's #7 this Sunday! Bills win rather easily...

You're not going to get me to defend that stance. Which may make you wonder why I even said it lol

I think there is a chance and I'm a gambling man... Obviously. But I think the outcome is an unknown with Kaep. You're probably right and odds are that Kaep will be the Kaep of late instead of the former one.

 

[Nosferatu]

You're not going to get me to defend that stance. Which may make you wonder why I even said it lol

I think there is a chance and I'm a gambling man... Obviously. But I think the outcome is an unknown with Kaep. You're probably right and odds are that Kaep will be the Kaep of late instead of the former one.

I just think he's gonna be trying WAAAAAAY to hard and it's gonna lead to mistakes a plenty.

 

[CowboyB]

I just think he's gonna be trying WAAAAAAY to hard and it's gonna lead to mistakes a plenty.

That definitely makes sense. I could see that happening.

 

[Oldschool739]

I just think he's gonna be trying WAAAAAAY to hard and it's gonna lead to mistakes a plenty.

Not to mention, Rex will be sending those oppressors after him for 60 minutes straight to make sure he stays in his favorite position, sitting down....He sucks and will probably not last the whole game before he's squatting again...Bills by 15 points or more...

 

[chf]

Whew, you picked the Falcons. Thanks.

 

[CowboyB]

Whew, you picked the Falcons. Thanks.

I switched it last second though. I am up and down on that one. I can see the Seahwaks making a statement game and completely shutting them down.

But if I had to bet I say the Seahwaks win by 3-6 points.

 

[CowboyB]

Not to mention, Rex will be sending those oppressors after him for 60 minutes straight to make sure he stays in his favorite position, sitting down....He sucks and will probably not last the whole game before he's squatting again...Bills by 15 points or more...

Not sure that's going to be the best tactic against Kaep. He was largely held back by Jim Tomsula. If the Bills leave the middle of the field wide open Kaep is going to have some HUGE gains.

 

[Oldschool739]

Not sure that's going to be the best tactic against Kaep. He was largely held back by Jim Tomsula. If the Bills leave the middle of the field wide open Kaep is going to have some HUGE gains.

When have you ever know Rex not to have a swarming D....Oh he's coming, and Kopasquat has been on the bench for some time, so rust on top of being a bad qb anyway says 15 points is being kind IMO...

 

[CowboyB]

When have you ever know Rex not to have a swarming D....Oh he's coming, and Kopasquat has been on the bench for some time, so rust on top of being a bad qb anyway says 15 points is being kind IMO...

This year actually.

 

[Oldschool739]

This year actually.

Agressive D's is his trademark...

 

[CowboyB]

Agressive D's is his trademark...

You asked the question and I accurately answered it.

Here is proof:

For a team that has both Rob and Rex Ryan on its coaching staff, two men who have built their careers by putting together fearsome and aggressive defenses, the Bills’ defense sure played bad. And pressure, or lack thereof, was the key.

“I was afraid to pressure them because I was afraid we wouldn’t hold up,” said Ryan after the game.

With Ryan not trusting his secondary, he dropped more defenders into coverage, which meant less blitzing. With Fitzpatrick given time to work, he started moving the ball around, extending drives and tiring out the Bills’ normally strong front 7. By the end of the game, the Bills’ linebackers were exhausted, and by that point it was too late.

 

[Oldschool739]

You asked the question and I accurately answered it.

Here is proof:

For a team that has both Rob and Rex Ryan on its coaching staff, two men who have built their careers by putting together fearsome and aggressive defenses, the Bills’ defense sure played bad. And pressure, or lack thereof, was the key.

“I was afraid to pressure them because I was afraid we wouldn’t hold up,” said Ryan after the game.

With Ryan not trusting his secondary, he dropped more defenders into coverage, which meant less blitzing. With Fitzpatrick given time to work, he started moving the ball around, extending drives and tiring out the Bills’ normally strong front 7. By the end of the game, the Bills’ linebackers were exhausted, and by that point it was too late.

1 game that they lost by 6 points, 2nd game of season with a new DC and you conclude all this...You might want to consider that since then they have knocked off 2 playoff teams including holding NE to zero in their house... Beat Az handily and went across country to put a whoop up on the Rams...I'd say that 5 games in, Rex's D is forming quite nicely....And you think a rusty bad qb on a mediocre to bad team is gonna beat them...Don't bet the farm on it....