Week 3 Locks

[CowboyB]

Well well, what a great week 2 we had. I was 2-0 in my locks taking the points with both the Titans and the Browns. The Browns game was a lock from start to finish while the Titans provided us with a little excitement in the path to their cover.

This week we are sticking with the same theme in picking 2 locks.

The AZ Cardinals showed us Carson Palmer still can kick some ass as long as the game isn't on a huge stage like the playoffs or a Sunday Night Home Opener Vs the Patriots. The Bills...well they are nothing but a huge sack of shit and 5.5 point underdogs. If I were you I would jump on this line ASAP because I fully expect it to be a 7-point line by gametime....what am I saying, the Cardinals will destroy the bills by at least 10.

The other pick is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yeah I get it they are travelling on the road to visit the worst fans in the game. Does it matter? No. Steelers fans will travel well taking away a lot of that crowd noise. They will also subdue the decibels when AB runs up and down the field on them. This will be the rookie QB's 1st real test against a big time defense. Yes, it looks to me like the Steelers defense is back. Stopping the Bengals offense is not a fluke so I see the 3.5 points an easy cover for the Steelers. Maybe another one you want to jump on as this is another spread that can jump multiple points by Sunday.

 

[Balljim55]

While I agree with your choices I would not declare the Steeler's defense as being "back". They have given up 800 yards in two games - 700 of that in passing. They are stout against the run but have definite secondary issues.

 

[CowboyB]

While I agree with your choices I would not declare the Steeler's defense as being "back". They have given up 800 yards in two games - 700 of that in passing. They are stout against the run but have definite secondary issues.

I hear you but yards don't mean much unless you play fantasy. Right now the Steelers are 8th overall in the NFL in total points allowed. That's pretty excellent considering the teams they played are pass happy teams that tend to put up a lot of points.

 

[Clayton]

If I were you I would jump on this line ASAP because I fully expect it to be a 7-point line by gametime....what am I saying, the Cardinals will destroy the bills by at least 10.

I'm seeing 6.5 from 2 days ago already so...yeah.

I like Niners, Lions and Chargers. Chargers over Colts would be my lock if it weren't for the Woodhead injury. Its still pretty safe imo.

 

[CowboyB]

I'm seeing 6.5 from 2 days ago already so...yeah.

I like Niners, Lions and Chargers. Chargers over Colts would be my lock if it weren't for the Woodhead injury. Its still pretty safe imo.

I think we are on the same page. The 9ers have been surprising to me and even though they were dismantled by the Camthers, I don't think Seattle is that good anymore (yes already backtracking from my predictions lol) and they did put up a little fight against the Panthers. I can see a closer game and a cover.

The Packers are just as vanilla as I thought they'd be. Everyone thought I was a fool for picking the Vikings to win the North. The Lions are better than everyone thought so I agree with you there.

The Colts are just a piece of shit team. The Chargers actually have some defense this year...some. I think they cover too.

 

[Clayton]

The Colts are just a piece of shit team. The Chargers actually have some defense this year...some. I think they cover too.

Chargers arguably could have the top offense in the NFL if healthy. They are still probably top 10 even with 2 big injuries. Colts probably have the worst defense in football. Colts also resemble the Jaguars a lot imo and Chargers just took care of them.

 

[jarntt]

While I agree with your choices I would not declare the Steeler's defense as being "back". They have given up 800 yards in two games - 700 of that in passing. They are stout against the run but have definite secondary issues.

he didn't say what they were back too...

 

[CowboyB]

Chargers arguably could have the top offense in the NFL if healthy. They are still probably top 10 even with 2 big injuries. Colts probably have the worst defense in football. Colts also resemble the Jaguars a lot imo and Chargers just took care of them.

Yeah that's a good point but the home/away factor may provide a little different of a dynamic. I think Luck is the better but Jax has better receivers and we saw what the Chargers did to Allen Robinson...specifically my fantasy team saw it

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

LOCK
Saints - 3 over Falcons

A Typical Stay Away divisional game, but this is a desperate Saints team that has played well enough to be 2-0, against a Falcons team playing their second straight on the road after being out West.....Toss in a really hobbled Julio, whom I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't make it through the entire game, and Im loving a Saints explosion for their first win...Don't see this team falling at home to 0-3, all but cementing another long and awful season....Love the chances of them pulling it together in national TV and getting a big convincing win


Love the Cardinals too for sure

 

[knowyourenemy]

I hear you but yards don't mean much unless you play fantasy. Right now the Steelers are 8th overall in the NFL in total points allowed. That's pretty excellent considering the teams they played are pass happy teams that tend to put up a lot of points.

Cincinnati doesn't seem to be quite as good offensively as it was last year. No surprise. It lost Sanu and Tyler Eiffert is hurt.

Washington? I wouldn't say they tend to put up a lot of points. They were 10th in points scored last year but I can't say that many people view them as a good offensive team. They were terrible the year before. I suspect they're somewhere in the middle.

Does that mean Pittsburgh's defense isn't back? No. Their defense is markedly improved from 2 years ago. I don't think we can be sure of how good the defense is until we see them against a few more opponents.

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

While I agree with your choices I would not declare the Steeler's defense as being "back". They have given up 800 yards in two games - 700 of that in passing. They are stout against the run but have definite secondary issues.

Hard to gauge judging by yards. I'd say well over 30-40% of those yards were given up in garbage time when they go soft coverage. 100 of Dalton's 366 came in the form of dump-off passes to Bernard late in the game. Key stat for this D is 3rd down efficiency. Opposing offenses are 7 for 26 against them on 3rd downs (~27%). That's huge. They rank 3rd in that category.

While the secondary is definitely not amazing by any means, they are by far & away better than they were last season. And they are continuously getting better. Only part of the defense that scares me right now is the pass rush. They have 1 sack through 2 games, granted their focus has been stopping the pass since they have been going with 3-4 man rushes. If they can figure out a way to get after the QB more, then this secondary will only benefit from it.

 

[eaglesnut]

Eagles +6

Easy money on these home dogs.

Steelers play a brutal brand of football with the Bengals. And that will slow them down all week. Eagles on the other hand have the short week but get to play against a 3-4 for the second week in a row which helps get the preparation started. Steelers defense creates no pressure and is overrated. They have been doing nothing but trying to cover up for their backend. That's a recipe for disaster against an Eagles offense that will give a ton of different looks and use the whole field. Antonio Brown might go wild, but plenty of WRs have before in losing efforts. Look for Ben to be under constant duress and the Eagles hang in there the whole way with chances to win it in the 4th quarter. Eagles have started well and gotten better as each game's gone along. They are very well coached. In the context of a full season this is a throw away game for the Steelers.

 

[CowboyB]

Eagles +6

Easy money on these home dogs.

Steelers play a brutal brand of football with the Bengals. And that will slow them down all week. Eagles on the other hand have the short week but get to play against a 3-4 for the second week in a row which helps get the preparation started. Steelers defense creates no pressure and is overrated. They have been doing nothing but trying to cover up for their backend. That's a recipe for disaster against an Eagles offense that will give a ton of different looks and use the whole field. Antonio Brown might go wild, but plenty of WRs have before in losing efforts. Look for Ben to be under constant duress and the Eagles hang in there the whole way with chances to win it in the 4th quarter. Eagles have started well and gotten better as each game's gone along. They are very well coached. In the context of a full season this is a throw away game for the Steelers.

Last week I wrote the qualifier that Homer's will be laughed at. I understand your passion but we are looking a super bowl contending team vs a team who has been able to play powder puffs.

I'm not going to say the Eagles re scrubs but they aren't as good as they have looked.

 

[Clayton]

Yeah that's a good point but the home/away factor may provide a little different of a dynamic. I think Luck is the better but Jax has better receivers and we saw what the Chargers did to Allen Robinson...specifically my fantasy team saw it

The problem with my pick is that Vegas is expecting Green Bay, Seattle and Indianapolis to bounce back. I think historically, strong teams that start out slowly bounce back against sleeper teams like the Lions, Niners and Chargers.

Chargers are an interesting case because they had winning seasons 2 of the 3 years with their head coach but the 3rd year everyone got hurt. This year, they are falling apart again and its a hard guess to figure out how much they'll regress on offense but it seems like they can run the football.

If you think that the Colts are actually a decent team then the Lions line starts to look attractive. 8pts is also attractive because the Packers have looked every bit like a .500 team so far. When they met last year, it was a 4pt game and a 2pt game and that matches what the Lions have done in their first two weeks. Its been 11 games since the Lions have lost by a big margin. Lions look like a 6 or 7 win team to me so Im a bit iffy on this one.

Niners are your classic 'out of nowhere' team like the Vikings last year. Unfortunately Seattle probably has the best coaching staff in terms of teams that will bounce back and they tend to own the Niners a bit. I'd still take the points.


As a sidenote, I might need to switch up my avatar to a more recent STL player for the playoff push.

 

[CowboyB]

The problem with my pick is that Vegas is expecting Green Bay, Seattle and Indianapolis to bounce back. I think historically, strong teams that start out slowly bounce back against sleeper teams like the Lions, Niners and Chargers.

Chargers are an interesting case because they had winning seasons 2 of the 3 years with their head coach but the 3rd year everyone got hurt. This year, they are falling apart again and its a hard guess to figure out how much they'll regress on offense but it seems like they can run the football.

If you think that the Colts are actually a decent team then the Lions line starts to look attractive. 8pts is also attractive because the Packers have looked every bit like a .500 team so far. When they met last year, it was a 4pt game and a 2pt game and that matches what the Lions have done in their first two weeks. Its been 11 games since the Lions have lost by a big margin. Lions look like a 6 or 7 win team to me so Im a bit iffy on this one.

Niners are your classic 'out of nowhere' team like the Vikings last year. Unfortunately Seattle probably has the best coaching staff in terms of teams that will bounce back and they tend to own the Niners a bit. I'd still take the points.


As a sidenote, I might need to switch up my avatar to a more recent STL player for the playoff push.

Yeah you have me sold on the Lions! I didn't realize they played the Packers so close last year. Of the two teams even losing Megatron, I think the Lions improved the most from last year. Jordy isn't 100% and that is a big deal.

I'd say that is a lock at this point and do like the points with the 9ers. I hear you on bounce back but the real problem for the Seahawks isn't going to bounce back because everyone knew their offensive line was a huge problem going into the year.

Hmmmmm maybe an avi switch is a good idea for the current crew.. I like this Diaz kid. Maybe I can find a decent action shot.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

While I agree with your choices I would not declare the Steeler's defense as being "back". They have given up 800 yards in two games - 700 of that in passing. They are stout against the run but have definite secondary issues.

Thru two games, I agree the DEF is not "back", but I have a little different view...I'm not as sold on the run DEF or pass rush yet and I think the secondary has actually played pretty well...they got up on WAS big and that took away their rush attempts, and the same thing for CIN...they got up 2 possessions in the 3Q and they also abandoned the run.

Scheme wise, Butler is rushing 3 to 4 and zoning it off with 7 or 8...yes, it's yielding a lot of passing yds, but on 3rd down and in the RZ they have been clutch so far.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Last week I wrote the qualifier that Homer's will be laughed at. I understand your passion but we are looking a super bowl contending team vs a team who has been able to play powder puffs.

I'm not going to say the Eagles re scrubs but they aren't as good as they have looked.

I hope to be laughing too!

8 straight losses in PHI for the Steelers...I expect them to win, but I don't like -6....I do like MIN +7, they have a good enough DEF to keep this game close even with a new QB on the road.

 

[eaglesnut]

Last week I wrote the qualifier that Homer's will be laughed at. I understand your passion but we are looking a super bowl contending team vs a team who has been able to play powder puffs.

I'm not going to say the Eagles re scrubs but they aren't as good as they have looked.

Not every super bowl contender plays like a super bowl contender every week. Coming off their Bengals match up it's a bad spot for the Steelers, no matter if they are the better team. And the Eagles may have played some bad teams, but they did what good teams do to bad teams, they buried them.

 

[CowboyB]

Not every super bowl contender plays like a super bowl contender every week. Coming off their Bengals match up it's a bad spot for the Steelers, no matter if they are the better team. And the Eagles may have played some bad teams, but they did what good teams do to bad teams, they buried them.

That's all well and good but a rookie QB is coming off something a rookie QB has never done in the NFL. I place much of that on who they have played. Shitty defenses will do that.

Carson Wentz will get exposed.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Adrian Peterson now out with a knee surgery...bet the farm on Carolina