Treff's 2013 RB rankings

[TREFF]

RB
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Doug Martin
3. Arian Foster
4. Trent Richardson
5. Jamaal Charles
6. Marshawn Lynch
7. CJ Spiller
8. Ray Rice
9. Lesean McCoy
10. Alfred Morris
11. Steven Jackson
12. Darren McFadden
13. Steven Ridley
14. Chris Johnson
15. Matt Forte
16. DeMarco Murray
17. David Wilson
18. Montee Ball
19. Frank Gore
20. Reggie Bush
21. Lamaar Miller
22. Chris Ivory
23. Eddie Lacy
24. Rashard Mendenhall
25. Ahmed Bradshaw
26. Darren Sproles
27. Levon Bell
28. Ryan mathews
29. Giovani Bernard
30. Jonathon Stewart
31. Isaiah pead
32. Muarice Jones Drew
33. Zac Stacey
34. Bernard Peirce
35. Shane Vareen
36. Bryce Brown
37. Mark Ingram
38. DeAngelo Williams
39. Justin Forsett
40. Mikel Leshoure
41. Fred jackson
42. Ben Jarvis Green Ellis
43. Ben Tate
44. Shonn Green
45. Micheal Bush
46. Danny Woodhead
47. Joseph Randle
48. Jonathan Franklin
49. Jacquizz Rodgers
50. Darryle Richardson
51. Ronnie Hillman
52. LaMicheal james
53. Ryan Williams
54. Marcel Reece
55. Larod Stephens-Howlings
56. Denard "shoelace" Robinson
57. Knile Davis
58. Bililal Powel
59. Knowshon Moreno
60. Joique Bell

12 team league, 4-5 RB's per team (at most), top 60 should do.
AP at #1 is am easy choice after what he did last season. I have my doubts about Foster holding the #2 spot, I know that his usage is going to catch up to him sometime, and there are some horses right behind him. So, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Doug Martin or Trent Richardson over Foster in a speculation move that banks on Foster hitting a wall this season. Andy Reid's affect on the Cheifs should be a godsend for anyone who drafts Jamaal Charles, but, the guy will probably miss a game or two, or more. Speaking of missing a game or two, Marshawn Lynch would be my #2, if not for his impending suspension to start the season. CJ Spiller should finally be given the full reign of the Bills backfield, seeing as how Fred Jackson really showed his age last year. Ray Rice falls a bit, but not due to anything about him, just the emergence of Bernard Pierce. Lesean McCoy also falls, both because of Bryce Brown, and the somewhat uncertainty of what his role will be in the new Chip Kelly offense. And finally, Alfred Morris edges Steven Jackson for the final spot in my top five , mainly due to the redskins needing to keep RGIII upright and the Falcons need to put the ball in the air.

 

[TREFF]

Please feel free to comment, I'm posting these in an attempt to generate discussion!

 

[wilwhite]

No Andre Brown?

And Vereen at #35 is pretty interesting.

 

[bone3421]

not sure why you think charles will miss a game.....2008 rookie year played in 16 games (2 starts)

2009 15 games played (10starts)

2010 16 games played (6 starts)

2011 injury 2games played

2012 16 games played (15 starts).......he always plays besides the injury year,always shared the load with another back but he is out there every game

 

[Sox33OSU]

I am really liking Lamar Miller. I think Miami's offense is in good shape to make a jump, and the new receiving weapons should help open things up in the running game. Miller is a hell of a RB. He is a must get for me by round 3 (keeper league).

I also think you have Sproles way too low. Perhaps this is a standard league, but in a PPR league he's a top 10 RB. Even in a standard league, and now especially with Ivory out of town, he should be good for around 1000 total yards and 8-9 TDs.

As a Browns fan, I love TR, but I'm not taking him before Jamaal Charles, CJ Spiller or Ray Rice. He still hasn't proven he can stay healthy, and he's not healthy currently...

There are some things I agree with but some things I disagree with depending on your format. If this is a standard league, Lynch and Morris should be higher. If it's a PPR league, Sproles and MJD are too low. I'm not fully sure MJD is going to be back all the way, but when healthy he is still a beast.

 

[tlance]

You are high on TRich. Many are knocking him down their injury board due to injury concerns. Ranking lists will change significantly between now and the time that my $ leagues draft, but it looks like I would be deciding between TRich and SJax at #11 if the draft were today.

Right now, I am not sure which way to go. TRich is clearly the better, younger back, but SJax in Atl is like a dream come true. What is your reasoning for ranking TRich so high?

 

[averagejoe]

Megatron, Rodgers and Brees. From what I've seen, these are 3 elite players from the other positions who may be drafted in rounds 1 or 2. Why do I bring them up in a topic of RB rankings?

With the exception of DMC (who is a higher injury risk) in your top 15, the rest of the RB are essentially a crap shoot. Committees, veterans giving way to rookies, other veterans who are earmarked as the starter but haven't been playing like one, injuries, etc.

And from what we've seen, rookies don't always pan out either. The promise is always there. As soon as they cough up the rock, their playing time drops. Or if they can't pick up blitzes. Or they get hurt in camp because they're playing against bigger, faster, and more balanced set of athletes than they were in college.

Don't get me wrong, I'll be taking my chances on some of these guys too. And some will make their fantasy owners very happy. But I'm guessing most won't, because they don't come with a more reliable history as the RB in Treff's top 15.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Megatron, Rodgers and Brees. From what I've seen, these are 3 elite players from the other positions who may be drafted in rounds 1 or 2. Why do I bring them up in a topic of RB rankings?

With the exception of DMC (who is a higher injury risk) in your top 15, the rest of the RB are essentially a crap shoot. Committees, veterans giving way to rookies, other veterans who are earmarked as the starter but haven't been playing like one, injuries, etc.

And from what we've seen, rookies don't always pan out either. The promise is always there. As soon as they cough up the rock, their playing time drops. Or if they can't pick up blitzes. Or they get hurt in camp because they're playing against bigger, faster, and more balanced set of athletes than they were in college.

Don't get me wrong, I'll be taking my chances on some of these guys too. And some will make their fantasy owners very happy. But I'm guessing most won't, because they don't come with a more reliable history as the RB in Treff's top 15.

In a PPR league, Darren Sproles is about as much of a sure thing as there is. Also, given the RB situation in Pittsburgh, I think Leveon Bell is in great shape. Barring injury, he should be good for, IMO, an easy 10+TDs, as he is their unquestioned GL battering ram. He also knows how to catch out of the backfield, so he is going to be a solid 4th-5th round choice in any format, IMO.

Otherwise, though, I do have to agree. Demarco Murray is so unpredictable. Mendenhall is gonna be a bum, IMO. Wilson can't hold onto the ball. Ivory has never been a bellcow like he will be in NY (with 0 passing attack). I am staying away from the GB situation, simply because both Lacy and Franklin could be studs, meaning committee in a passing offense.

I do, however, think there may be some good sleepers. I actually am kind of buying into Mark Ingram as a solid bench RB and possibly RB2. Letting Ivory go sure seems like a sign they're ready to move forward with him, and he did have more TDs last year than the entire rest of the returning team combined. I also REALLY like Reggie Bush in Detroit. Assuming he's healthy, I don't see him losing many carries to Leshoure, and he also filled the dynamic playmaker catching passes that Jahvid Best looked to be filling in 2011, and the Lions like throwing the ball to their RBs (over 130 targets last year).

My 2 leagues both have 2 RB and 1 flex, and I will be taking RB with my first 3 picks (1 keeper league, and my best choice was Julio Jones).

 

[TREFF]

no will, no Andre Brown.

TRich's injury history actually bolsters him in my book..if he can do what he did last year with cracked ribs..he's a gamer.
yet
I think Charles will miss a game, becuase Andy Reid will run him into the ground. And thete isn't a good "load sharer"...,yet
As for MJD..wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. His knees are bone on bone,the guy won't play more than 8 games.
Would've put Lamaar Miller higher but,,, Who should go down??? Bush mybe, but that the only guy. Miller is massively overated from what I saw last year. Wouldn't grab him to be anything but a RB3.

 

[TREFF]

Sox, all my rankings, advice, whatever..are always assuming a standard scoring league...thus Sproles and Bush get no bonus from me.

 

[Sox33OSU]

Sox, all my rankings, advice, whatever..are always assuming a standard scoring league...thus Sproles and Bush get no bonus from me.

I can see no Sproles, but no Bush? He should be good for 100+yards combined per week with a rushing or receiving TD at least every other game. All I've heard about him is how well he's taking to the offense up there, and he's ready to go.

Also, since it's a standard league, why so low on Lynch and Morris?

 

[Sox33OSU]

no will, no Andre Brown.

TRich's injury history actually bolsters him in my book..if he can do what he did last year with cracked ribs..he's a gamer.
yet
I think Charles will miss a game, becuase Andy Reid will run him into the ground. And thete isn't a good "load sharer"...,yet
As for MJD..wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. His knees are bone on bone,the guy won't play more than 8 games.
Would've put Lamaar Miller higher but,,, Who should go down??? Bush mybe, but that the only guy. Miller is massively overated from what I saw last year. Wouldn't grab him to be anything but a RB3.

I'd take Miller over Demarco Murray, Frank Gore, and right now Montee Ball. He's gonna have no competition in Miami for touches (Daniel Thomas has been in the doghouse down there for awhile).

 

[TREFF]

I'd take Miller over Demarco Murray, Frank Gore, and right now Montee Ball. He's gonna have no competition in Miami for touches (Daniel Thomas has been in the doghouse down there for awhile).

please do so, and come play in our league his comp. for touches will be, every RB on the ike Wallace, and the rest of the recieving corp. These Miami faothfull crack me up. THILL gonna be huge..Mike wallace gonna be huge, Lamaar Miller gonna be huge...where r all these extra offensive snaps coming from for all aspects of the offense to be so remarkably better than they were last year? Improvement, yes? Greatness? back up the train, Sally.
io

 

[averagejoe]

I can see no Sproles, but no Bush? He should be good for 100+yards combined per week with a rushing or receiving TD at least every other game. All I've heard about him is how well he's taking to the offense up there, and he's ready to go.

Also, since it's a standard league, why so low on Lynch and Morris?

I know you directed this to Treff, however...

Bush
Have you ever heard an NFL team not spew politically correct optimisms about a player in preseason? (Rhetorical.) I'm not against Reggie. But CJ is the focal point on that team. And let's face it, the Lions are usually playing from behind, which puts more focus on the passing game, which may eliminate the factor of what Reggie can do.

Lynch
I liked Lynch. But in Buffalo the guy was up one year and down the next. He'd have flashes of brilliance, then be a dud. Since he had an up year in Seattle, I'm banking on his trend that this will be his down year. Call it a hunch.

Morris
One word - Shanahan. His RB do great. But he changes RB like underwear.

 

[TREFF]

.

Also, since it's a standard league, why so low on Lynch and Morris?

Dang..everyone can't be top two or three...AP, Foster, Martin, Charles, Lynch...doesn't seem that low to me. and as I memtioned, he would be my #2, if not for the suspension comng at the start of the season...that how tight I have my top five.
Alf..still got him high, but I'm always a little leery around Shannahan and his RB's..he likes to ride em until he breaks them, or they piss him off, than they're done.

 

[Sox33OSU]

please do so, and come play in our league his comp. for touches will be, every RB on the ike Wallace, and the rest of the recieving corp. These Miami faothfull crack me up. THILL gonna be huge..Mike wallace gonna be huge, Lamaar Miller gonna be huge...where r all these extra offensive snaps coming from for all aspects of the offense to be so remarkably better than they were last year? Improvement, yes? Greatness? back up the train, Sally.
io

I'm certainly not saying Miller is going to be great. I'm saying I've seen the guy play, and he seems like a very good RB2. Also, he has 6 games against rush defenses that ranked 26th or worse last year, not to mention 3 more against bottom-third rush Ds, so that is favorable. I am not seeing how you thought he was "overrated". He went for 250, 5 ypc as the 3rd string RB, and now is the unquestioned 1st stringer behind an offense that, if anything, will be able to spread defenses out.

Dang..everyone can't be top two or three...AP, Foster, Martin, Charles, Lynch...doesn't seem that low to me. and as I memtioned, he would be my #2, if not for the suspension comng at the start of the season...that how tight I have my top five.
Alf..still got him high, but I'm always a little leery around Shannahan and his RB's..he likes to ride em until he breaks them, or they piss him off, than they're done.

Fair enough. Lynch does have a lot of wear on the tires, to be fair. I'd probably put him ahead of Charles for the time being, though.

 

[Sox33OSU]

I know you directed this to Treff, however...

Bush
Have you ever heard an NFL team not spew politically correct optimisms about a player in preseason? (Rhetorical.) I'm not against Reggie. But CJ is the focal point on that team. And let's face it, the Lions are usually playing from behind, which puts more focus on the passing game, which may eliminate the factor of what Reggie can do.

Lynch
I liked Lynch. But in Buffalo the guy was up one year and down the next. He'd have flashes of brilliance, then be a dud. Since he had an up year in Seattle, I'm banking on his trend that this will be his down year. Call it a hunch.

Morris
One word - Shanahan. His RB do great. But he changes RB like underwear.

BUSH - I know, I know. It's better than nothing, though. Besides, I haven't heard this much optimism about Bush in his career thusfar, and I think he has proven the last 2 years with nearly 1300-1400 total yards both seasons that he is at least worthy of RB2 status. Plus, he's in a much more explosive offense now that I feel will be able to utilize skillset more than in Miami.

LYNCH - To be fair, he's had back-to-back great seasons.

MORRIS - Unless he gets injured, I don't see why things would change from last year. If he was good enough to not only buck Shanny's RB trend but to also earn RG3's trust, I think it could really hurt chemistry if they went back to a committee.

 

[TREFF]

I think there migjt be a small case of being cuaght up in the numbers here..12 team league..top 12, RB1, Top 24, RB2, nothing wrong with being a RB2!...maybe not my personal Rb2..as I'd be aiming to have three of them..but..anyways..Just cuase a guy isn't in my top 15, doesn't mean I'm trying to dog em..I just the chances of a few others better.

 

[Sox33OSU]

I think there migjt be a small case of being cuaght up in the numbers here..12 team league..top 12, RB1, Top 24, RB2, nothing wrong with being a RB2!...maybe not my personal Rb2..as I'd be aiming to have three of them..but..anyways..Just cuase a guy isn't in my top 15, doesn't mean I'm trying to dog em..I just the chances of a few others better.

Oh, I wasn't trying to insinuate anything. We all have our choices for potential sleepers, and mine are Miller and Bush this year. I think they're both flying under the radar, and of course I am talking about PPR leagues so I like their potential in that format.

 

[TREFF]

Nah, I know you weren't, and besides, good discussion!

Hey Joe! I have a small homework assignment that I have a feeling is right up yer alley. What was the per week point spread frim RB#13 to RB#25 last season? I gotta believe it wasn't too huge of a difference. Would do it myself, but gonna be swamped for the next 12hrs