Treff's 2013 RB rankings

[wilwhite]

What jumps out in your numbers is the 4.3 PPG advantage of RBs 1-6 over RBs 7-12.

But in 2010 the advantage of RBs 1-6 over RBs 7-12 was only 2.2 (even with Foster's crazy 309 factored in).

And in 2011 Jimmy Graham on his own was a full 4 PPG better than the next guy. And Gronk was almost 3 PPG better than Graham... i.e. if you had Gronkowski in 2011 you had on average a 7+ PPG advantage over everybody but the guy who had Graham. No QB or RB in 2011 gave an advantage that was even in the same stratosphere. (If you draft today for the 2011 season, knowing how it all went down, you take Gronk first overall.)

That's why people went nuts on those guys in 2012.

Essentially I'm saying these numbers won't work, even as rough guidelines, unless you run them over several years. And then they're still only rough guidelines. In the end it's not about trends, but about relative value of projected individual performance, because every year is different.

 

[TREFF]

I think Sam already answered this. But it got me thinking. Since we tend to group players a certain way, and base our draft strategy on whether we're in the top half or the bottom half...

I went back to last years fantasy leaders (standard scoring) and broke it down by six.

QB
top 6 avgd 353.2 fantasy points (or 22.1 pt-per-gm)
7-12 avdg 291.6 (18.2)
13-18 avgd 241.6 (15.1)
19-24 avgd 197.8 (12.3)

RB
top 6 avgd 276.5 (17.2)
7-12 avgd 207.8 (12.9)
13-18 avgd 165.6 (10.3)
19-24 avgd 138.5 (8.6)
25-30 avgd 104 (6.5)
31-36 avgd 86.1 (5.3)
37-42 avgd 77.3 (4.8)
43-48 avgd 67.3 (4.2)

WR
top 6 avgd 229 (14.3)
7-12 avgd 192.6 (12.0)
13-18 avgd 169.5 (10.5)
19-24 avgd 151.6 (9.4)
25-30 avgd 127 (7.9)
31-36 avgd 114.2 (7.1)
37-42 avgd 108 (6.7)
43-48 avgd 96.5 (6.0)

TE
top 6 avgd 136.6 (8.5)
7-12 avgd 99.5 (6.2)
13-18 avgd 80.3 (5.0)

I've always believed this, but it's nice to have the numbers to back it up: to all the guys who grab Jimmy Graham in the 3rd round, they're basically saying, 'give me a guy that only gets close to 10 pts a week' instead of grabbing a WR1/2 or RB2 that actually will get them more than 10 pts a week!

So what do you think? (Not about my little soapbox rant, the numbers?)

Excellent work as always Joe..I knew it'd be right up your alley.

 

[averagejoe]

That was a complete shot in the dark. I fully anticipated you telling me just to figure it out on my own. Thanks man!

You're welcome.

Essentially I'm saying these numbers won't work, even as rough guidelines, unless you run them over several years. And then they're still only rough guidelines. In the end it's not about trends, but about relative value of projected individual performance, because every year is different.

Thanks for shooting down my hard work, Wil. But actually, I would agree. For starters, no one really knows which players will land within the "leaders" board. Fun to speculate though, which is why we love our FF. (Now email me your 200!)

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I like doug martin... But as an owner of him last season... he really was just amazing for a couple of games... He was inconsistent, and just plain average for most of the season... Have not looked tat tampabay's schedule but if they have a more difficult schedule, then be careful with Martin...

 

[TREFF]

I like doug martin... But as an owner of him last season... he really was just amazing for a couple of games... He was inconsistent, and just plain average for most of the season... Have not looked tat tampabay's schedule but if they have a more difficult schedule, then be careful with Martin...

I give Martin a little bit of a pass, for one reason...he was a rookie, and had never had that much "football" in one season before. Rookie camp, OTA's, training camp, 16 games...thats an awful lot more activity than what the NCAA allows in college. I'm going on the assumption that he'll be better prepared to handle thw full season this year. I know I'm somewhat grasping at straws with this excuse..but there ya have it

 

[TREFF]

Vereen lined up at WR during spring practices
Shane Vereen | NE
(July 5, 2013 5:16 PM EDT)
During Patriots spring practices, "there were times" Shane Vereen lined up as an outside receiver and got matched up with a linebacker.
Patriots Football Weekly's Paul Perillo compares the formation to the one out of which Vereen caught a 33-yard TD pass against Houston in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, beating coverage with a double move. Calling him a "versatile running back with wide receiver skills," Perillo believes Vereen will essentially be New England's No. 2 receiver behind Danny Amendola this year

Perhaps 35 is too low?

You PPR'ers out there..here's your "sleeper"

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Perhaps 35 is too low?

You PPR'ers out there..here's your "sleeper"

Read that yesterday; was gonna keep it to myself and hope it went away................lmao!