Treff's WAY too early RB rankings

[TREFF]

#1- LeSean McCoy- the talent to be the #1 back, in any system didn't suddenly disappear last year. His Oline was constantly in flux, and the pieces being used were awful. Not to mention Chip Kelly's apparent hatred for "stars" on HIS team...more on that later. The Bills will run this cat into the ground, and he'll have an amazing season because of it.

#2-LeVeon Bell-I'm still not a big fan of this guys basic skill set. I just don't see anything "special" about him. But, the offense that he stands to be in, and his sheer volume usage as a true 3 down back, in this day and age, is enough to ensure a top 5 slot.

#3- Marshawn Lynch- Much like Bell above, Lynch's usage alone puts him in the top 5, but he's also definitely something special. The only reason he isn't #2 is that I"m expecting a bit more of the other RB's being used, leaving more beast mode available come playoff time.

#4- Matt Forte-again, the biggest attribute to being a top fantasy RB is going to be usage. Can't score if you're not on the field, and Forte stays on the field a lot. No faith at all in Cutler leading the offense to a ton of scores, but Forte should get most of what's available.

#5- Eddie Lacy- the first of many many spots where you'll wish your guy was on the field more often. Lacy is usually there, but Starks gets just enough touches to keep Lacy from being in the same class as the previous four. The Kuhn vulture doesn't help either.

#6- Jamaal Charles- The small frame is beginning to become a hinderance. For years no one thought he could handle a full load, yet he kept doing it..well now he's not so good at doing it. He'll still be the guy most of the time, and he's still electric, but Kniles Davis will continue chipping away, as CHarles gets more breathers.

#7- Carlos Hyde- Frank Gore being allowed to walk says it all. He has the ability to be in the top five based on his usage and what we've seen thus far in limited action, but, he's also unproven when asked to be THE guy. He may very well get drafted too high for most "safe" owners to take. I'd like to see a full year being the man, before I take the man too high. He may tire as the season wears on, he might not be quite as good without Gore battering the defense first..I'm not sure enough to take that chance.

#8- Adrian Peterson-Had a trade to Dallas happened, he'd be my #2. Had a trade to ARZ materialized, he'd be #5. Reality being what is is, he's still a Vike, the line isn't terrible but it's not a great asset either, and his QB still needs a lot of growth. All that said, this is still the super alien among us known as All Day, and he will have 1200+ and at least 8 TD's

#9- Arian Foster- Injuries are really starting to pile up on the poor guy, yet, he's still a stud when playing. There's still no obvious heir apparent around to take any real time when he's healthy, so he's still worthy of a top 10 ranking.

#10-Mark Ingram- With the exodus of playmaking ability in the passing game, the focus is apparently turning to the run game, and Ingram more than showed last year that he's capable of moving the rock. With Brees back there, the D will never fully be able to sell out against the run. CJ Spiller presents just enough of a problem to be worthy of note, but not much else.

#11- J. Hill- He took the job from the electric Gio Bernard during an injury, and really never looked back, even after Bernard returned. The problem is Bernard is still there, and is still really good. Hill will get his, but so will Bernard. and on a team with AJ Green, there's only so many balls to go around.

#12- Alf Morris- Helu walked away, finally leaving Alf as the best RB on his own team. he's still a plodder, I still don't care for him..put he compiles stats. I guess that's good enough. The fact that he contributes next to nothing in the passing game, and no offense led by RGIII can be trusted to be consistent leaves him outside the top 10 for me.

#13- Demarco Murray- Many many are going to have him much higher. Frankly I thought long and hard about leaving him out of the top 15. Chip Kelly's usage of McCoy last year is my biggest detriment for Murray. Ryan Mathews is a close second, and Darren Sproles is a third big reason why. ANd finally, as if I needed a 4th reason, Murray's injury history coupled with his insane touch total from last year, don't bode well for 16 games this season.

#14- Jonathon Stewart- JStew should get the volume, but that's going to be his biggest plus. the Carolina offense is only a step up or two from the Cleveland offense, and Stewart is far from being an elite level talent to begin with.

#15- Darrin McFadden- Yep, he had to make my top 15, and yes I struggled with not putting in the top ten. But Randle and Dunbar will take plenty of touches. But barring injury, McFadden doesn't HAVE to leave the field. He's an excellent receiver, and a very good blitz pickup. He won't be leaving the field during hurry ups or whatever, every series he's in should be his to finish. And with that line..which only got younger, deeper, and stronger during the draft and then signed L. Collins?? Wow! Injury concerns are the only reason not to draft this guy in the first round. And no, Ryan Williams, who has not played a single down in two years, is not a factor..unless injury occurs.

 

[TREFF]

#16- Melvin Gordon- the first, and only rookie in my top 25. The only one virtually assured of playing time from day one. Given the history of Wisconsin RB's in the NFL, I'm hard pressed to expect much from him, and SD's offense hasn't exactly been a RB friendly since the days of LT. Should be an adequate RB2 though.

#17- Frank Gore- Gore in INdy with Luck, Hilton, Andre, and all the others. that offense is poised to fly. and the flying is probably the only reason Frank won't be a top 15 back. The guy is getting old, and i"m sure they'll use him accordingly, but he's still got it. I'm banking on Gore being a major asset in TD heavy leagues, not so much in yardage leagues or PPR's.

#18- Justin Forsett- the career backup turned all pro in Kubiak's (stolen) zone blocking rush attack. Kubiak's gone, sounds like the system will remain..we'll see. If Forsett had proven anything anywhere else in his journeyman-like career, he'd be higher. I'd rather let him surprise me on someone else's team.

#19- Legarrette BLount- NO more Ridley, no more Vareen, no RB's drafted, only James White, T. Cadet, and Jonas Gray to worry about...well that and the Hoody, who is probably his biggest plus and minus at the same time. 16 TD's in the last 18 games as a Pat. Other than what will surely be maddeningly insane usage trends from his head coach, what's not to like??

#20 Latavius Murray- Helu muddies the waters a bit, Trent Richardson really doesn't..but can't deny he's on the team. The Raiders insistence on being named as potential landing spots for any and all free agent RB's, plus Peterson,,tells me they aren't entirely confident in Murray..but the guy is going to make some highlight plays...probably both good and bad. Very talented RB, very bad football IQ. Raider fans will be happy to watch him, but won't have any issues with Helu taking over from time to time either.

#21- CJ Anderson- why is this guy not in my top ten? Well, he's not going to maintain his hold on the job for one. Secondly, that offense is trending the wrong direction. Peyton's old, minor injuries have a longer, bigger effect and when the QB play suffers, everyone suffers. And, they lost the TE who took away the linebacker fill, they lost their blocking TE, they lost two starting O-linemen, and I don't think the replacements they found in the draft are nearly adequate. Ball WILL be a factor at some point this season, as will Hillman. Thomas throwing a hissy fit this offseason doesn't help either. CJ is setup to be the big flop of this years fantasy RB's

#22- Ellington- Too bad this guy proved he couldn't handle the load last year..he may never get another shot it. But he's still a very good RB, and will be on the field more often than not. Luckily for him they didn't snag AP. Unluckily they did draft a pretty talented threat that will likely take a significant portion of touches away.

#23- Gio Bernard- Much like Ellington, this guy is too good to simply say he's a third down back. Sure Jeremy Hill is going to be the main guy, but Gio isn't going to roll over and die either. He'll play a lot of passing situations, but he'll also get his fair share of entire series as well.

#24- Doug Martin- This guy is an enigma. a top 25 ranking is still living off his rookie season,,that and the rest of the RB's behind him are starting to get ugly. His success, and TB's, are tied directly to Jameis Winston, and if he's as good on the field as advertised. I have my doubts, and lets not forget Sims and Rainey and James are all still on the team, and all have had at least some success in the starting role, so Martin is guaranteed of nothing. Should Charles Sims end up wining the job, I put him in this exact same spot.

#25- Isiah Crowell- This could easily be Terrence West..but not Duke Johnson. Crowell and West are basically interchangeable, and neither are gong to be strong assets to your fantasy team, but they'll do in a pinch. With no QB, no difference makers on the outside, no play making TE..the Browns will be forced to run, and thankfully they do have a pretty decent run blocking O line, but what they don't have is a stud RB, they have two B's and a might be. I chose Crowell because he seems to have more explosion and power than West..but he could easily fumble away his playing time.


Narrowly missing the top 25 in no particular order--
TJ Yeldon, Tevin Coleman, Terrence West, Montee Ball, Lamar Miller, J Ajayi, A. Abdullah, J. Bell, Helu, Woodhead, Ivory, Ridley, David Johnson, Mathews and Sproles.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Well done Treff! You know I love your top dog!

Wish I had the sack to put something in writing too... but right now I'd probably have Nolan Arenado as my #2 QB! Some studying appears imminent for my horizon, I'll start my digging during our draft.

 

[broncosmitty]

Well done Treff!

Thank you planting the RB seed in my mind. It's almost that time. (I think Murray might be a little lower for me. And I'm frightened of Ingram, Gordon and anyof Clevelands 7 tailbacks.)

 

[TREFF]

Hoping to do WR's this evening. ..hoping

 

[TDs3nOut]

Not at all convinced of your comments about CJ Anderson and Denver's offense. Perhaps you are right, but I am optimistic that the Broncos will be a force this year. Certainly an interesting season this year in Denver with the new coaching staff.

 

[Trudem]

I agree with the above comment about Anderson. I think Denver will be more balanced and Anderson gets the benefit of that. Thomas wasn't on the field last year late when Anderson was putting up monster games.

 

[Trudem]

But kudos for having the sack to make the rankings.

 

[TREFF]

Not at all convinced of your comments about CJ Anderson and Denver's offense. Perhaps you are right, but I am optimistic that the Broncos will be a force this year. Certainly an interesting season this year in Denver with the new coaching staff.

True..but even if we differ in opinion on how big of an effect the changes may have. .they did lose the starting linemen, they did lose Orange Julius and that other dude who's name is escaping me. ..the blocking TE..it's not likely you just plug a couple bodies in there and go about business as usual. The biggest effect, imho, is the loss of Thomas. What defenses had to do to account for him really opened up running lanes. Owen Daniels is a real nice player, but he's not commanding respect like Thomas did. ..that's where I think the biggestnegative effects will be seen. More RB's talked by linebackers instead of safeties.

 

[TDs3nOut]

True..but even if we differ in opinion on how big of an effect the changes may have. .they did lose the starting linemen, they did lose Orange Julius and that other dude who's name is escaping me. ..the blocking TE..it's not likely you just plug a couple bodies in there and go about business as usual. The biggest effect, imho, is the loss of Thomas. What defenses had to do to account for him really opened up running lanes. Owen Daniels is a real nice player, but he's not commanding respect like Thomas did. ..that's where I think the biggestnegative effects will be seen. More RB's talked by linebackers instead of safeties.

Julius was certainly productive in the passing game, but he was a liability in run blocking. We kept Virgil Green, who is a very good run blocking TE. Also interested in James Casey, who I suspect will play a hybrid FB/H-back type of role (might be the same for Juwan Thompson).

I understand questioning whether Manning is done and how he fits a Kubiak WCO. I know that some questioned how Flacco would perform in that role. He did pretty well, and I think that Manning might do the same. Certainly interested to find out.

 

[TREFF]

I agree with the above comment about Anderson. I think Denver will be more balanced and Anderson gets the benefit of that. Thomas wasn't on the field last year late when Anderson was putting up monster games.

very true, Cj's best two games were the ones that Julius didn't play in..but it wasn't late last year, it was mid last year..and then there's this little tidbit that just came out recently..

Ex-Broncos OC Adam Gase said C.J. Anderson struggled with his conditioning last season.
"He got tired and was a little chubby sometimes," Gase said. "He wore down quick and then we had to rotate backs in." Anderson’s production declined over the final month of 2014, where he averaged 3.8 YPC. His offseason conditioning will be worth monitoring. Despite making the Pro Bowl last year, Anderson hasn’t been assured he’ll return as the starter by HC Gary Kubiak. Anderson remains the favorite to lead Denver's backfield over Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman

Couple that with the admission that Ball was never fully recovered from the appendectomy before the groin issue..I see Montee making a very strong push for the starting gig, either winning it during preseason, (in which case I put Montee in Cj's spot in my rankings), or shortly thereafter. They probably will be more balanced, they definitely SHOULD be considering Manning's advanced age and obvious decline. But I'm just not necessarily sure that CJ will be the one who will be the big benefactor.

 

[TREFF]

Julius was certainly productive in the passing game, but he was a liability in run blocking. We kept Virgil Green, who is a very good run blocking TE. Also interested in James Casey, who I suspect will play a hybrid FB/H-back type of role (might be the same for Juwan Thompson).

I understand questioning whether Manning is done and how he fits a Kubiak WCO. I know that some questioned how Flacco would perform in that role. He did pretty well, and I think that Manning might do the same. Certainly interested to find out.

damn, that's right they did keep Virgil..I thought I recalled hearing he was gone, but now that you mention it they do still have him..that'll help, guy is a very strong blocker. To my point on Julius..he didn't have to block the guy..he just had to split out into the slot or out wide and remove the guy from the middle of the field to open that lane.

And you bring up another interesting point..don't sleep on Juwan Thompson factoring in and being a thorn in fantasy owners sides also. The typical "gym rat" athlete with loads of physical tools, but not quite a high football IQ yet..should he develop that, he could very easily factor into the starting gig discussion as well.

 

[TDs3nOut]

damn, that's right they did keep Virgil..I thought I recalled hearing he was gone, but now that you mention it they do still have him..that'll help, guy is a very strong blocker. To my point on Julius..he didn't have to block the guy..he just had to split out into the slot or out wide and remove the guy from the middle of the field to open that lane.

You are right about JT. Always favored seeing him lined up out wide.

Denver's offense figures to be very different this year than it's been the past three years. Very uncertain how it's production will compare, but I think we might run the ball pretty well, and I won't be surprised if CJ plays a prominent role.

 

[averagejoe]

Nice write-up, Treff. I agree on some. Disagree on others. And you may have changed my opinion on a few as well.

And with the Suicide draft in the works, it does pain me to see you have McCoy ranked so high. I was hoping he would fall to me at 7. I'm really not happy with the RB crop this season, so I may need to look at a WR in the 7 spot.

 

[TREFF]

I highly doubt he'll get to me at 5, but yeah, you're not getting him at 7!

 

[The Foot]

Treff nice write up, it was a good read. My two sence is that Lynch takes a major tubmle but I certianly understand why you have him so high I just would not touch him this year exspecially for where he'll be drafted. I think Forsett is to low and should be higher but you make a very valid point about the exit of the coach. I just think Forsett waited to long to be in this position and if he gets the touched again he will make sure he gets it done.

I also think Miami's new RB could be great but you can dismiss that one since I have to say that.

Nice work buddy!

 

[The Foot]

Oh and I thick Jonas Gray should be where Blount is.

 

[TREFF]

You think Gray will beat out Blount? Fair enough. I can't see that happening, but I also didn't see why Helu was second to Alf, so doesn't mean much.

I agree that the Phins new back could be real good. .it's just that now they'll have 2 "real good ones" and no great one..at least from a fantasy perspective

 

[TKOSpikes]

We'll see where Hill stands pretty soon. A lot of talk on him during Trudem's threads... I know one thing, he's gone at 10 at the latest!

I think I'd have Morris and DMC off the first page, and Gore and Forsett on it.

Interesting to see where the WR fall this year... has "the switch" happened for draft purposes? Everyone talks about it, they've been "taking over" in recent years.

 

[leftypower]

very true, Cj's best two games were the ones that Julius didn't play in..but it wasn't late last year, it was mid last year..and then there's this little tidbit that just came out recently..

Ex-Broncos OC Adam Gase said C.J. Anderson struggled with his conditioning last season.
"He got tired and was a little chubby sometimes," Gase said. "He wore down quick and then we had to rotate backs in." Anderson’s production declined over the final month of 2014, where he averaged 3.8 YPC. His offseason conditioning will be worth monitoring. Despite making the Pro Bowl last year, Anderson hasn’t been assured he’ll return as the starter by HC Gary Kubiak. Anderson remains the favorite to lead Denver's backfield over Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman

Couple that with the admission that Ball was never fully recovered from the appendectomy before the groin issue..I see Montee making a very strong push for the starting gig, either winning it during preseason, (in which case I put Montee in Cj's spot in my rankings), or shortly thereafter. They probably will be more balanced, they definitely SHOULD be considering Manning's advanced age and obvious decline. But I'm just not necessarily sure that CJ will be the one who will be the big benefactor.

Gotta love a man who sticks to his guns from last year. However, Ball had his chance and flopped whereas CJ did not. Perhaps CJ doesn't end up as lead dog but I, for one, will not be on the Montee Ball bandwagon. Saw a write up on Rotoworld that indicated CJ was a good fit for Kubiak's scheme - time will tell.