top pick in a keeper....luck?

[nj_cup]

i try to not ask for help but i'm really torn on this.

its a 10 team ppr. qb rb/rb wr/wr/wr te k def.

i'm keeping julio he was the best on my team last year. your only allowed to keep 1 player for one year then he goes back into the pool. all of the other teams finally submitted their keepers. these are the best options that i can take at #1.

rb. bell 329pts forte 311pts lacey 245pts
wr d.thomas 269pts dez 250pts julio (who i'm keeping 222pts)
qb luck 451pts rodgers 437pts brees 403pts big ben 399pts and eli 347pts.


ideally whoever i draft with this pick will be my keeper next year since i can only keep them 1 year......its a low scoring league. bell missing 2 games plus the bye 3 games....forte with catching 102 passes only put up 311. lacey a great year only put up 245pts.

d.thomas i really wouldn't want to touch next year without peyton dez is an option to consider since starting 3 wr but at #1?

qb....luck is by far the best option out of the bunch. i only put big ben and eli up there because i always hear people say about "value" at qb later rounds thats true but as you can see thats a big drop off in points from luck to say eli and the "2nd tier" qbs.

another thing to consider with qb's since i am drafting at one end of the draft chances of me landing a "top" qb is low. luck and rodgers would be gone by my 2nd pick maybe brees being there. big ben being the next qb is way too early to be taken in round 3 pick #1 but he will probably be gone by the time my 4th pick comes up.


i draft bell i will miss him for 3 weeks but i can keep him next year
i draft luck i will have him this and next year.

 

[Across The Field]

I don't know if it's fair to count the bye against Bell. You'll be missing that with everyone.

I like the idea of going Bell, and then maybe later in the 5th/6th, grab Matt Ryan. Not only do I see him thriving under Shanahan, but you also get to double dip with Julio.

Just wondering - is Jeremy Hill being kept?

 

[Barilko]

Bell for me or Lacy

however note i'm one of the many who do not believe in getting a Qb early

 

[nj_cup]

its funny you mention ryan since i had him as my qb last year ( i wanted the double dip) hahahaha ryan last year put up 359 points for me.

yes hill is being kept.

keepers are charles/lynch/peterson/brown/odell/hill/murray/nelson/julio/evans.

just to give an example how little scoring is in this setup. brown put up 306 points. in another league i'm in he put up 427 points.

passing on luck and his 451 is really tough in my eyes. only hang up is really taking luck as the #1 pick? i know its really a 2nd round pick in the grand scheme of things

 

[nj_cup]

Bell for me or Lacy

however note i'm one of the many who do not believe in getting a Qb early

even with the low scoring in the league

 

[nj_cup]

its funny you mention ryan since i had him as my qb last year ( i wanted the double dip) hahahaha ryan last year put up 359 points for me.

yes hill is being kept.

keepers are charles/lynch/peterson/brown/odell/hill/murray/nelson/julio/evans.

just to give an example how little scoring is in this setup. brown put up 306 points. in another league i'm in he put up 427 points.

passing on luck and his 451 is really tough in my eyes. only hang up is really taking luck as the #1 pick? i know its really a 2nd round pick in the grand scheme of things

i guess another way i look at it is that luck should be the #1 qb and point getter this year julio has a chance at being the #1 wr this year. bell probably wont be and lacy has a slim shot at it.

 

[Barilko]

i wouldn't take Rogers or Luck at 1 i would only consider them at 20/21 and even then if certain players were still there i would then again pass on them at 20/21

as for picks 40/41 i wouldn't take any Qb except Big Ben/Peyton unless the unlikely happens and Luck or Rodgers are available

even at that it depends on the draft results to that point i may try to hold out and risk getting Big Ben at 60/61 knowing that if it fails i can still grab Romo or Ryan here

as for your early pick being next years keeper i wouldnt lock my thoughts towards that as you do not know where this season may take you

a new stud could emerge from your other picks---you may make a trade ---with only 1 Keeper to think about i would not plan for year 2 in this years draft...

 

[Barilko]

it can be spun from many angles

however week to week it is about complete team scoring and it is not about who owns the highest scoring Qb at seasons end as owning the best Qb could possibly cost you average weekly scoring at other positions

and what do mean by it is a low scoring league

 

[Barilko]

i try to not ask for help but i'm really torn on this.

and no worries here ^^^^

that is what these boards are for......

trust me i have received lots of help and thoughtful insight from oh so many here

ie Lefty WW Treff Chef Average Joe Harold Foot SteelersPride Smoking Monkey Tlance Bandit TKO and many many more


trust me they may be chiming in

 

[nj_cup]

there aren't any bonus for hitting a certain yardage. in some i do once a player hits 100 yards its a 5 point bonus tacked on.

20 yards for a point rush/receive 50 for throwing 6pts all td's

 

[Barilko]

i guess another way i look at it is that luck should be the #1 qb and point getter this year julio has a chance at being the #1 wr this year. bell probably wont be and lacy has a slim shot at it.

and you may be right so Grab Luck if that is how you feel it is your draft and believe me you will not be alone in drafting Luck as it will happen in many leagues

just consider if you do who is your first Rb available at 20 im certain most will go between picks 2 and 19 not to mention the ones that are already kept

 

[Barilko]

there aren't any bonus for hitting a certain yardage. in some i do once a player hits 100 yards its a 5 point bonus tacked on.

20 yards for a point rush/receive 50 for throwing 6pts all td's

very confusing

and its not what you do in some

the question only pertains to this league that you are asking questions about

 

[nj_cup]

the scoring is 20 yards 1pt receiving and rushing
50 yards and 1 point for passing

6pt td
1ppr

i was looking at that who would be available when i go in round 2. it would be somewhere in the range of alfred morris (182pts) joique bell (182pts) or ingram (189pts) as good as a year lacey had its only 63pts better then these guys. i know point totals dont mean anything going into this year but it gives some context.

a team of say julio eli lacey
or a team of say julio luck morris.

 

[Barilko]

a team of say julio eli lacey
or a team of say julio luck morris.

you cannot compare that way

Luck Julio Morris ok after Keeper and 2 picks

hower if you take Lacy or Bell i prefer Bell so ill write

Keeper- Julio 1st pick Bell and not Eli as Eli isnt your 2nd pick so its a bad comparison

thus it could be

Julio-Luck-Morris-3rd pick 4th pick 5th pick 6th pick

or

Julio-Bell-Morris- 3rd 4th Romo maybe Ben Ryan

or

Julio Bell Morris 3rd 4th 5th Eli

 

[TREFF]

the scoring is 20 yards 1pt receiving and rushing
50 yards and 1 point for passing

6pt td
1ppr

i was looking at that who would be available when i go in round 2. it would be somewhere in the range of alfred morris (182pts) joique bell (182pts) or ingram (189pts) as good as a year lacey had its only 63pts better then these guys. i know point totals dont mean anything going into this year but it gives some context.

a team of say julio eli lacey
or a team of say julio luck morris.

With that scoring you don't want Alf or Bell...you want Spiller or Abdullah or Vareen (or two of the three) maybe even Woodhead..or even Bush if you don't mind missing a few games. 4 catches for 40 yards is better than a great day for Alf without a TD.

Id take Bell, who gets a TON of receptions, go after DeAngelo really late, or better a yet, a JSTEW in the later mid rounds, target a couple more high volume WR's in the 2-3-4th, mix in one of Abdullah, Forsett or Spiller In there, and then gobble up the Vareens, Woodheads, and Bush's of the world in the middle-late rounds, wrapped around a Big Ben, Romo, Stafford, Ryan or Rivers. No way should you spend a pick of any value on an Alf or any other non pass catching back in a league with 20yd per pt scoring and a full PPR.

 

[nj_cup]

so then using that thinking (which i agree with a bit) who would you take with the #1 pick i have?

 

[TREFF]

Leveon Bell...making sure you get a lower end, yet still starting RB for his two game suspension later on...such as JSTEW, or DeAngelo..a fine pass catching back in his own right, who's taking Bell's place those two games, and who you can probably snag with one of your final few picks.

Ideally you'd end up with a team more or less like this. .
Ben/Romo/Rivers/Ryan
L. Bell
Forsett/Spiller/Abdullah
Julio
Benji/Hopkins/Cooks/Mathews/Cooper

just have to fill in with a TE like ASJ, Donnell, Daniels, ect..and either a 3rd WR or flex whatever you use. With a high volume receiving back like Woodhead or Bush or at least Helu, on the bench for bye weeks (plus that JSTEW or D WILLIAMS previously mentioned)

 

[TREFF]

Btw..with the Kevin White injury, Eddie Royal could be a very valuable late round pick. In line for decent PT, and always seems to score about 5 more TD's than anyone would ever think he should. .nice looking flex option in PPR leagues imho..

 

[TKOSpikes]

Yeah. Bell in a dynasty pretty easily.

 

[SteelersPride]

its a ppr league. take bell. Regardless of the 6 points passing td. Hes gold without a ppr league. but hes gonna catch 60-80 balls on top of his carries and td's, thats just my opinion, once i saw 1ppr its a no brained