The NBA rookies Thread

[Mecca]

Call me crazy but I don't want Bledsoe. I'm fine with Redick, TLC, Stauskas, and Bayless filling the void until Fultz is healthy. We won't trade our rights to the Lakers pick (it goes to Boston if it lands 2-5) and I'm not sure we'd be willing to trade our own pick (thought that will hopefully end up being a mid-to-late first). I don't want to lock up $15 million next year.

Seeing as he's made it clear that he wants to be traded, I don't think anyone should offer Phoenix a first rounder unless it's heavily protected.

I would love to have him back if we got to keep Beverly too.

But, we don't have the assets even if we included him.

Sad when your starting pg is also your designated goon.

 

[Mecca]

Player Comparison Finder: Lonzo Ball (through 2017-18) vs. De'Aaron Fox (through 2017-18) | Basketball-Reference.com

I don't know how you can look at Ball's performances and say he's been better than Fox. Maybe if you're a Lakers fan. Fox have been way better scoring than Ball in every possible category (FG%, 3P%, FTM, FT%, TS%, EFG%) and has been able to contribute on the boards. He's also got a better A/TO ratio, which coupled with the dispariteis in FG% indicates to me that he may have fewer assists but he's also hurting his team less than Lonzo is. He's also rated better than Lonzo in Box Plus-Minus, Player Efficiency Rating, and has a higher offensive rating and the same defensive rating.

Fox is playing 7 fewer minutes per game, which indicates that the rebound and assist category would tighten up and his PPG lead would only lengthen if he were to play more minutes (per 36, the numbers would look like 19.8, 6.6, and 6.6 against Ball's 14.0, 9.8, and 9.1). The flipside is that perhaps that contributes to Ball's poor efficiency numbers and Fox's superior efficiency numbers. And that may well be the case, but we have no way of knowing that. (For an example, take a look at Andrew Wiggins who is averaging a career low in MPG but whose offensive efficiency has improved so far this year. Though sadly, Wiggins is still a net-negative player.)

Bottom line: Ball has been good in some areas but so far has not been good enough overall to warrant ranking him ahead of the 4 guys I listed above him.

That being said, it's only a few games in. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.

Good points.

But, still hard for me to swallow even with your irrefutable logic.

* Homer *

I hope the Kings have a fire sale, once they realize they aren't making the payoffs, and trade Hill.

Just give Fox the keys.

 

[knowyourenemy]

Good points.

But, still hard for me to swallow even with your irrefutable logic.

* Homer *

I hope the Kings have a fire sale, once they realize they aren't making the payoffs, and trade Hill.

Just give Fox the keys.

I guess the argument for Lonzo is that his impact on the Lakers is bigger than Fox's impact on the Kings. And that may well be true. I just can't get past the poor shooting numbers.

 

[flyerhawk]

We can re-evaluate Ball after tonight.

 

[tlance]

If I had to rank the rookies so far, which admittedly is way too early, I think it'd be:

1. Ben Simmons -- 4 double doubles & 1 triple double, he leads all rookies in PPG, RPG, is second in APG and FTA, and has the highest FG% of any rookie with more than 10 FGA per game. He's got a sizable advantage over the other rookies so far . . . but we're only 4 games in.

2. De'Aaron Fox -- 3rd in PPG and 4th in APG, Fox is scoring better than anyone probably expected him to do so out of the gate, including 45.6% from the field, 40% from 3, and 85.7% from the line.

3. Lauri Markkanen -- Markkanen might be built for the modern NBA. 2nd in PPG and 3rd in RPG among rookies, the 7-foot sharpshooter is hitting 45.5% of his 3PA on an impressive volume of 7.3 attempts per game. So far, he is making virtually twice as many 3-pointers as any other rookie.

4. Jayson Tatum -- 4th in PPG and 4th in RPG, Tatum so far has lived up to the hype of his polished offensive skillset. Shooting 47.6% from the field and 45.5% from 3, he's helped fill the void left by Gordon Hayward's injury and some of the other players who departed Boston in the offseason. He probably will not lead the rookies in any statistical category, but he's likely to quietly put up good numbers all season and his team has the best chance of making any noise during the season and postseason, which means he will get chances to showcase his abilities.

5. Lonzo Ball -- 1st in APG, 2nd in RPG, and 6th in PPG, Ball is putting up very good total numbers so far -- but his points totals are bolstered by 1 big game and his shooting percentages have been bad. If he improves his shooting percentages, he has the best chance of unseating Simmons.

Honorable mentions: Dennis Smith, Kyle Kuzma, Mike James, John Collins

There are really only 5 candidates, IMO, based on what the first week has shown. Guys like Maarkanen have played well, but they have no shot. Not enough hype to unseat all the big names ahead of him, unless he posts truly outlandish numbers. Keep in mind, once Portis and Mirotic come back, his role may change.

Here are the 5 in order. Hype matters a small much as performance, IMO.

1: Simmons: looks like the real deal. Will take an injury or a heroic effort to top him.
2: Ball: Efficiency numbers will be rough, but his name brand matters to voters.
3: DSJ: huge opportunity to post numbers that the others ranked below him may not have.
4: Fox: Has outplayed Ball and DSJ so far, but he has a lot to overcome playing in Sacto.
5: Tatum: starting on day 1 for a good playoff team? Impressive.

These 5 may not finish top 5 in ROY voting, but there is almost a zero percent chance of anybody else actually winning the award.

 

[knowyourenemy]

There are really only 5 candidates, IMO, based on what the first week has shown. Guys like Maarkanen have played well, but they have no shot. Not enough hype to unseat all the big names ahead of him, unless he posts truly outlandish numbers. Keep in mind, once Portis and Mirotic come back, his role may change.

Here are the 5 in order. Hype matters a small much as performance, IMO.

1: Simmons: looks like the real deal. Will take an injury or a heroic effort to top him.
2: Ball: Efficiency numbers will be rough, but his name brand matters to voters.
3: DSJ: huge opportunity to post numbers that the others ranked below him may not have.
4: Fox: Has outplayed Ball and DSJ so far, but he has a lot to overcome playing in Sacto.
5: Tatum: starting on day 1 for a good playoff team? Impressive.

These 5 may not finish top 5 in ROY voting, but there is almost a zero percent chance of anybody else actually winning the award.

I agree -- I was just ranking them based on performance to date. I think Tatum and Ball are the biggest threats to Simmons though. Tatum because he's got the "playoff team" argument and Ball because he will benefit from volume and opportunity. I guess DSJ has that same opportunity but I don't think he'll put up the numbers everyone thinks he will.

I agree that Simmons is the favorite and it's going to take something extraordinary for him to be beat out for the award. I guess we'll see.

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

1: Simmons: looks like the real deal. Will take an injury or a heroic effort to top him.
2: Ball: Efficiency numbers will be rough, but his name brand matters to voters.
3: DSJ: huge opportunity to post numbers that the others ranked below him may not have.
4: Fox: Has outplayed Ball and DSJ so far, but he has a lot to overcome playing in Sacto.
5: Tatum: starting on day 1 for a good playoff team? Impressive.

So his numbers mean nothing then? Despite a poor first game he is still averaging 13/9/9

 

[Bolts]

Good points.

But, still hard for me to swallow even with your irrefutable logic.

* Homer *

I hope the Kings have a fire sale, once they realize they aren't making the payoffs, and trade Hill.

Just give Fox the keys.

I'm kinda feeling that way too, but not yet. I still think Hill being around is helping Fox and others with his veteran experience, but you want to see Fox show off what he's learned. At some point the vets will be traded off and the young kids will be given the keys to take control, even if it happens in the offseason. I'd be surprised if Hill was with the Kings 3 for seasons.

 

[tlance]

So his numbers mean nothing then? Despite a poor first game he is still averaging 13/9/9

Why are you putting words in my mouth? I didn't say that.

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

Why are you putting words in my mouth? I didn't say that.

Where did I put words in your mouth?

 

[tlance]

Where did I put words in your mouth?

You read.

I said EFFICIENCY numbers will be rough. FG% and probably TOs too. That has nothing to do with his PTS/REBs/ASST line.

 

[bksballer89]

You read.

I said EFFICIENCY numbers will be rough. FG% and probably TOs too. That has nothing to do with his PTS/REBs/ASST line.

LMAO at these people who think PTS/REBS/ASST are everything without analyzing the efficiency numbers.

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

LMAO at these people who think PTS/REBS/ASST are everything without analyzing the efficiency numbers.

And how does Lonzo rank amongst rookies in efficiency?

 

[tlance]

And how does Lonzo rank amongst rookies in efficiency?

Depends.

If you are using PER as your BS measure for efficiency, probably well.

If you look at the stats that actually measure his efficiency, not so much.

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

Depends.

If you are using PER as your BS measure for efficiency, probably well.

If you look at the stats that actually measure his efficiency, not so much.

Actually Lonzo ranks 17th amongst rookies in PER

Jordan Bell is 1st. Shall we give him the ROY award now?

 

[bksballer89]

Actually Lonzo ranks 17th amongst rookies in PER

Jordan Bell is 1st. Shall we give him the ROY award now?

He clearly stated PER is a BS way to measure efficiency. Can you read?

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

He clearly stated PER is a BS way to measure efficiency. Can you read?

Can YOU? He said Lonzo would do well in PER and I corrected him.

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

So what stats do you want to use for player efficiency?

You guys do realise that's not how they rank rookies, right?

 

[bksballer89]

Can YOU? He said Lonzo would do well in PER and I corrected him.

Pretty sure he would rank much lower if you check the stats that actually measure efficiency

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

Pretty sure he would rank much lower if you check the stats that actually measure efficiency

Like which ones? Enlighten me!