The Houston Rockets Thread

[MHSL82]

Houston finally played a few west coast teams, the past few weeks. But I either wasn't able to watch, or I wasn't paying attention.

For example, I would have watched the Houston-Portland game after Bulls-Jazz, but then the ESPN ticker ruined the score, so I didn't want to watch anymore.

And I wasn't able to watch any games yesterday, in which I could have seen Houston play.

Bad game. I know the score was a 10-point loss, but it was baaaad. With a capital B. Yeah, I didn't capitalize it. That was unneeded. It was so bad that it capitalizes itself. Good thing you didn't watch. The Clippers shot 77% in the first quarter to score 46 points. The Rockets scored a respectable 28, too. And they weren't good shots, either. Clippers would throw the ball up with nothing on the shot clock, falling backwards, blind-folded and make it. Well, might as well have been blindfolded. And ones, too. And when they missed, there was a foul called, even if the foul didn't affect the shot. And Billups is ugly. Cassell-like.

 

[nuraman00]

And Billups is ugly. Cassell-like.

I disagree.

 

[MHSL82]

Yeah, I guess Cassel is in a whole 'nother category.

Oh, I added the video to your post, since you disagree (only added to the quote, not to your post).

 

[MHSL82]

Adding it here, so I can include it later to the Movies, Music Videos, etc. thread later.

 

[MHSL82]

Who would have thunk? I'm glad that someone from the future has the decency to come tell us what's going to happen. The article is obviously over-the-top, so no need to tell me that it won't happen. No, I didn't write it.

Who Has the Brighter NBA Future, Jeremy Lin or James Harden? | Bleacher Report

 

[MHSL82]

There was talk from a fan on the pros and cons of trading Lin and thankfully, some of those pros to trading him went away. He's getting better. Still not the best, still inconsistent, but improvement from him would be great for me, as long as the Jazz win all head-to-heads and ahead of them in the standings.

 

[nuraman00]

That's a feeling they have to go through, is that worth it? But, I have heard numerous people, journalists, analysts, sources with the team, say that Lin IS worth the 8.4 million a year - mainly talking about the future, as he's still young.

So, I'm fine with basketball reasons not to sign Lin, but money?

Simmons liked Lin's contract.



Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe on the Trade Deadline Part 1 - Grantland

Dork Elvis went into the summer with a slew of "if"s and came out of it with a franchise guy (Harden), two starters on fair contracts (Lin and Asik), the fifth overall pick AND cap space for 2013.

 

[MHSL82]

Simmons liked Lin's contract.



Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe on the Trade Deadline Part 1 - Grantland

It was the luxury tax money that the Knicks didn't like. Houston has so much money that it doesn't cost them that cap. My problem was everybody contributed to the cap.

It reminds me of when I went to a restaurant with 5 friends and had a gift card. We went right up to the 100 limit with the five, but another friend had come and eaten with us, making the bill 118 dollars. People wanted to charge the sixth member the 18. I said, we all had a good time here, we can all put in 3. I mean, we averaged a 20 dollar meal. It was my gift card that I got from a friend who moved to Taiwan to a Washington restaurant (use it or lose it for me) and people were shirking 3 dollars? We knew the sixth person was coming, he was invited. We all could have had a 15 dollar meal instead. But just because we came first, we didn't contribute to it by having 20 and not 15?

 

[nuraman00]

It was the luxury tax money that the Knicks didn't like. Houston has so much money that it doesn't cost them that cap. My problem was everybody contributed to the cap.

Maybe that's all the Knickerbockers were concerned about, but he also is owed $14M in his 3rd year.

For them, because he was an early bird FA and he was over the cap, the contract would have been structured $5M $5.5M $14M.

If Lin sucked, that 3rd year would be a waste. What if he turned into a player that couldn't play in the league anymore?

Former MIPs like Bobby Simmons and Aaron Brooks couldn't play very well less than 2 years after the year they won those awards.

Lin, still not having much of a history, could have been one of those guys.

It's the same reason why Chicago didn't match on Asik's contract. The cap hit in the 3rd year would be too much. There is some pause as to whether it's ok to pay someone that much, even if the team would already be over the cap and such without them. Just because they might not want a bad contract.


They probably should have been concerned whether they could end up paying $14M to a player who couldn't play in the league 3 years later. As I stated in those MIP examples, players can look good one year, even young ones, then 2-3 years later not be a rotation player.

Also, in your restaurant example, players are equal.

In the NBA, players are unequal. If Anthony or Chandler puts you over the luxury tax (and their contracts are reasonable), it's fine.

If it's Asik, it's not ok (for Chicago).

If it's Lin, and he might suck in a few years, then there is some risk.

Better players who command a high salary are worth paying the tax for. Lin with $14M in his 3rd year, who might not be a good player, is debatable. They can get a cheaper player who they thought was just as good, in Felton.

I think had Lin's contract been structured normally, they would have been more likely to bring him back. But that's just a guess.

Lin's contract affected NY differently than it affected Houston, just like Asik's contracted affected Chicago differently than Houston.

Because NY and Chicago, respectively , were over the cap.

Also, Lin might have affected 10.3% of the tax, but there were other options. Felton is putting up similar numbers, while costing only $3.4M. Outside of marketing, Lin wasn't one-of-a-kind.

 

[MHSL82]

Maybe that's all the Knickerbockers were concerned about, but he also is owed $14M in his 3rd year.

For them, because he was an early bird FA and he was over the cap, the contract would have been structured $5M $5.5M $14M.

If Lin sucked, that 3rd year would be a waste. What if he turned into a player that couldn't play in the league anymore?

Former MIPs like Bobby Simmons and Aaron Brooks couldn't play very well less than 2 years after the year they won those awards.

Lin, still not having much of a history, could have been one of those guys.

It's the same reason why Chicago didn't match on Asik's contract. The cap hit in the 3rd year would be too much. There is some pause as to whether it's ok to pay someone that much, even if the team would already be over the cap and such without them. Just because they might not want a bad contract.


They probably should have been concerned whether they could end up paying $14M to a player who couldn't play in the league 3 years later. As I stated in those MIP examples, players can look good one year, even young ones, then 2-3 years later not be a rotation player.

Also, in your restaurant example, players are equal.

In the NBA, players are unequal. If Anthony or Chandler puts you over the luxury tax (and their contracts are reasonable), it's fine.

If it's Asik, it's not ok (for Chicago).

If it's Lin, and he might suck in a few years, then there is some risk.

Better players who command a high salary are worth paying the tax for. Lin with $14M in his 3rd year, who might not be a good player, is debatable. They can get a cheaper player who they thought was just as good, in Felton.

I think had Lin's contract been structured normally, they would have been more likely to bring him back. But that's just a guess.

Lin's contract affected NY differently than it affected Houston, just like Asik's contracted affected Chicago differently than Houston.

Because NY and Chicago, respectively , were over the cap.

Also, Lin might have affected 10.3% of the tax, but there were other options. Felton is putting up similar numbers, while costing only $3.4M. Outside of marketing, Lin wasn't one-of-a-kind.

It would be a match of Houston's offer. The third year would be 9.3 Million for two years each, not 14. The Knicks weren't offering, they were telling Lin to test the market and wanted Lin to come back with 5/5/5. I think if it were 14 only for one year, then they wouldn't mind it, his salary was lower these first two years. I think they would have grinned and beared it knowing that he could improve and brought in marketing if it were 14. With the luxury cap, the last two years would be 18.6 and 18.6 if they matched and that was the problem. Jeremy Lin is not worth 18.6, twice.

I disagree with your belief in player's being different. Their salaries already make them differently proportionally. I won't convince you, just say what I think. If a player amounts to 10% of the cap, he's responsible for 10% of the luxury. Salary plus proportional cap = pay. That pay may be worth it or not. Now that might be worth it for him, but not for Lin. So numbers-wise:

Amare Stoudemire is making 20 million, that's 23.5% of the team's budget if Lin's contract for the 3rd year substitutes Fenton's lower salary.

The luxury tax for the whole team would be 28.8. 23.5% of 28.8 is 6.8 million.

6.8 M + 19 and change is 26.7 m.

You could say that Stoudemire is worth 26.7 million, that's fine.

9.3 is 10.9% of the team's money. 10.9% of 28.8 million is 3.2 million.

3.2 + 9.3 = 12.5 million. You can say that Lin is not worth 12.5M.

But you can't say 9.3 + 28.8 million, Jeremy Lin is not worth 38 million!

 

[MHSL82]

Note: if a team spends more than the cap, the amount over the cap is not the tax. It's the budget. So if the Knicks were paying Lin's 9.3 million, they'd have 85 million on the books in a 58 million cap. That's 27 million over the cap. 27 over plus 27 luxury equals 54 million over what other teams can do. And they're not the best team? Well, remove the 9.3 and put in Fentons, and they are 79 Million, 21 over the cap - that means they have 21 over plus 21 luxury = 42 more than everyone else.

27-21 million = 6 million more luxury tax for Lin over the team with Fenton - not this 28.8 million dollar crap!

 

[nuraman00]

It would be a match of Houston's offer. The third year would be 9.3 Million for two years each, not 14.

It's structured differently for NY because they're over the cap.

How a contract is affects a team is different if they're over the cap or under the cap.

For Houston, it's 8,374,646, 8,374,646, 8,374,646.

For NY, because they're over the cap, the 1st year can only be up to the MLE for an Early Bird FA (which is what Lin was). But during the 3rd year, the salary Lin receives can be up to the max.

Houston did the same thing with Asik, making it $14M in the 3rd year, that they did with Lin.

There's a difference between what a player gets paid over the life of the contract, and how it affects a team's salary cap. And it affects teams differently.

For cap purposes, Houston pays Lin what I stated above. They can take the average. That's because they used cap space.

For NY, it's $5M, $5.5M, then $14M. That's because for NY, they had to use an Early Bird Exception to sign Lin. That limits Lin's 1st year to $5M (for NY, unless they had cap space, in which case they wouldn't be using an exception). So to get to the same $25M, it's the 3rd year that jumps.

If Lin had been a Larry Bird Free Agent (as opposed to Early Bird), then his contract would have been structured normally for NY, as they could then go above the cap by any amount. But because he was an Early Bird, his 1st year was limited for them.




Lin's deal was backloaded, which means if NY matched, they'd pay most of it at the end.

(Teams often do the reverse, and have a signing bonus, making a contract front-loaded. In that case, in terms of the cap, it's the average, but in terms of actual payment, it's during the 1st year).


The rule that allows Houston to do this, is the "Gilbert Arenas" rule. (You could call it the Boozer rule, but Arenas was a year earlier). Arenas was a 2nd round pick who was a RFA after 2 years. GS could only match up to the MLE to keep him, while outside teams could offer the max. So GS was powerless to match Washington's offer to Arenas. They were literally powerless. So even if GS had $0 in salary for next year, because of the way the pre-2005 CBA was, they could only offer the MLE for Early Bird FAs. While outside teams could offer Arenas the max. (I referenced Boozer because after Cleveland made him a FA, they were powerless to match Utah's offer. Stern is a Jazz homer.) The 2005 CBA fixed that, by limiting the 1st year to the MLE (if using Early Bird Rights), but after that, these 2nd rounders (or FAs who were Early Birds after 2 years, like in Lin's case, since he wasn't drafted), could still get paid. Only in this case for Asik and Lin, Houston knew Chicago and NY were over the cap, so that it would only be the MLE during the 1st year, and backloaded in years 3+. So this time, the original teams (Chicago, NY) could match, but making it backloaded like that would give them pause.


Here's the Arenas rule:


NBA Salary Cap FAQ

Before 2005 it was sometimes possible to sign restricted free agents to offer sheets their original teams couldn't match. This happened when a player was an Early Bird or Non-Bird free agent (see question number 25) and the team didn't have enough cap room to match a sufficiently large offer. For example, Gilbert Arenas was Golden State's second round draft pick in 2001, and became an Early Bird free agent in 2003. Golden State could only match an offer sheet (or sign Arenas directly) for up to the amount of the Early Bird exception, which was about $4.9 million at the time. Washington signed Arenas to an offer sheet with a starting salary of about $8.5 million, which Golden State was powerless to match.

This loophole was addressed starting with the 2005 CBA (although not closed completely -- see below). Teams are now limited in the salary they can offer in an offer sheet to a restricted free agent with one or two years in the league. The first-year salary in the offer sheet cannot be greater than the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception (see question number 25). Limiting the first-year salary in this way enables the player's original team to match the offer sheet by using the Early Bird exception (if applicable -- see question number 25), or Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception (provided they have it and haven't used it already)1.

The second-year salary in such an offer sheet is limited to the standard 4.5% raise. The third-year salary can jump considerably -- it is allowed to be as high as it would have been had the first-year salary not been limited by this rule to the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception2.

Ok, I think Houston changed the offer from initial reports.

Here were initial reports, which is where I got the $14M from:


Jeremy Lin Deal More of the Same in Bad Business NBA | Bleacher Report

So let me see if I have this right. The Houston Rockets have completed the offseason free agency swoop going for Jeremy Lin's services signing him to a three-year, $25 million dollar contract. A back-loaded deal that will see Lin make $14.8 million in that third year.

RealGM ? View topic - OT: Morey Offering $14M for Linsanity On His Final Year

Alex Kennedy ‏@AlexKennedyNBA
It's Omer Asik all over again. If Rockets get Lin, they'd pay him $8 mil per year. If Knicks match, they pay $5 mil, $5.2 mil and $13.8 mil.

You can see above how the contract affects each team differently.




Jeremy Lin signs Houston Rockets' offer sheet worth $25.1 million over three years - NY Daily News

Jeremy Lin managed to turn 25 career starts into a $25 million contract, and now it’s up to James Dolan to decide if the undrafted Harvard point guard is worth it.

Lin officially signed his offer sheet with the Houston Rockets on Friday, and the deal is more lucrative than originally believed. Lin will earn $25.1 million over three years, including $14.9 million in the final year.

Houston backloaded the deal to make it harder for the Knicks to match, which they nevertheless are expected to do.

That's 3 sources which said the 3rd year was $14M.


However, I think it was changed so the 3rd year was $9M, as you stated.


Jeremy Lin & Houston Rockets Agree On $28.8 Million Offer Sheet | The Big Lead

Update: Woj has the contract as “$5M in year one, $5.2M in year two and $9.3M in years three” and four. That equals $28.8 million if you were curious.

That's not so bad. I would do that.

3.2 + 9.3 = 12.5 million. You can say that Lin is not worth 12.5M.

I agree. I would use that method of adding to decide Lin's worth.





Another source, on why it was backloaded:

Houston Rockets Make Play for Knicks' Jeremy Lin with $35 Million "Poison Pill" Free Agent Contract - Forbes

What seemed like a fait accompli–that free agent point guard Jeremy Lin would return to the New York Knicks–is now anything but, in the wake of a “poison pill” contract offer by the Houston Rockets. Lin was in Houston to visit with his former team on Wednesday, which was, according to a report in the New York Post, prepared to offer him a four-year deal of around $30 million.

The first two years of the contract would pay Lin a modest $5.o million and $5.2 million, respectively. But Rockets GM Daryl Morey, who has an MBA from MIT’s Sloan business school, structured Lin’s deal so that the guard’s salary in the third and fourth years of the deal could reach as much as $10 million annually, which could cost the Knicks as much as $35 million in luxury tax payments.

Note: That link also notes that Toronto backloaded NY's Landry Fields contract the same way. They decided not to match Fields.







Asik's though, was $14M in the 3rd year:


Omer Asik Rumors: Houston signs Asik to 3yr, $25m offer sheet - Blog a Bull

As rumored last night, the Rockets were preparing a $8m/yr offer to Asik. It's actually slightly more annually, but only a 3-year deal. Woj with the details:

The Houston Rockets have reached agreement on a three-year, $25.1 million offer sheet with Chicago Bulls free-agent center Omer Asik, league sources told Yahoo! Sports.

Asik will sign the offer sheet on July 11 and the Bulls will have three days to match or lose him to the Rockets.

That total figure on 3-year offer means a yearly salary (and cap figure) starting at $5m, then the second year at $5.225m, and the 3rd year at a whopping $15m for 2014-15.

 

[nuraman00]

Here's another link explaining why the cap hit is differently for Houston, and for NY. As I stated above, Houston can take the average, because they're using cap space. Since NY has to use an Early Bird Exception, the cap hit for them is MLE ($5M), MLE + raise ($5.5M), super near-max raise ($9M)



This is with respect to Asik, but as I stated, Asik and Lin had the same type of contracts, and their original team was over the cap, and the cap hit for their original teams was backloaded.

How Gilbert Arenas Might Not Save The Knicks From Losing Jeremy Lin

This has never been an issue until the 2012 offseason. The Bulls and Knicks had, and still have, the right to match contract offers, even backloaded ones. But the cap hit is calculated differently for new and old teams. As John Hollinger explains, the Rockets' charge would be averaged over the length of the contract— $8 million annually. But the Bulls' hits would be $5 million, $5 million, then $14 million in 2014-15. And with the incredibly punitive luxury taxes added to the newest CBA, taking a bath for Asik—a great defender and woeful scorer—just isn't feasible for Chicago.

 

[nuraman00]

I could still proportionally say that Anthony is worth $9M in tax, but that Lin might not be for his $3M (during his final year, which is where all of the scrutiny for NY comes in).

 

[MHSL82]

I could still proportionally say that Anthony is worth $9M in tax, but that Lin might not be for his $3M (during his final year, which is where all of the scrutiny for NY comes in).

I agree with this. If the Knicks think a reasonable assessment of the cost is too much, then sure, that's good. It's just if the Knicks in years of accumulation have built a team that goes over the cap (Scott Laden, anyone?), even before they add Lin, I didn't like how people acted like Lin was the reason they'd be over the cap and every dollar they owed due to his deal was his fault.

Let's put it this way. If no one was committed to the Knicks and they added Lin for his contract, then they added the next 9 cheapest players. Then they added Amare and then they added Melo. Would we say Lin was costing them that much? No, we'd be saying Melo was. Which would not be fair.

Why should the order matter? If the Knicks had cared about order there should have been an offer on the table. There wasn't. They wanted Lin to go out, get nothing but small offers, and come back with the tail tucked between his legs. And then, he does that, signs a reasonable deal, and now, he's the greedy bastard. (Well, only some feel this way, but I've heard it.) Lin wanted to be a Knick and believed it was going to be matched. He could've insisted on no poison pill backloading but then the Rockets wouldn't offer. He'd then have to go back with the tail between his legs and be rewarded how? Less money. He might not be worth the inflated amount that it would in reality cost, but a lot of my vitriol is how it is represented and how people react. The Knicks are fine. They make their own evaluations and have been classy.

 

[MHSL82]

Here's another link explaining why the cap hit is differently for Houston, and for NY. As I stated above, Houston can take the average, because they're using cap space. Since NY has to use an Early Bird Exception, the cap hit for them is MLE ($5M), MLE + raise ($5.5M), super near-max raise ($9M)

What do you think about teams being able to backload a contract and then have the salary cap effect be different than the backload? To me, it goes against the principal of a cap if you can do that. Who cares when you pay a player? I thought the cap was supposed to be that everyone on each team combined in their teams would be equal and punishment for those who aren't each year. One philosophy is over a period of time every team should have the same cap, so that's why the reward of being able to move around the money capwise.

What would happen if they got Harden, going over the cap? Contracts aren't retroactively changed. So they could have Lin at the discount and then Harden just for the luxury, rather than both not being able to move around money and luxury.

 

[MHSL82]

"Beginning next season, the luxury tax starts at $1.50 per dollar and escalates for every $5 million a team is over."

So the numbers I stated earlier won't be correct for the fourth year. If the 28.8 number is just Lin's amount, based on the 1.50 per dollar plus escalation of the rest of the team, I would still take that amount and proportionalize it.

"If the Lakers are $30 million over, their luxury tax bill would be a whopping $85 million next season. If L.A. trims the payroll down to $20 million over the tax, the Lakers still would get hit with a $45 million bill. And they'd be subject to the even heavier repeater rate in 2014-15, although Steve Nash's $9.7 million salary is the only contract on the Lakers' books for that year right now.

Next season is the Lakers' last chance to amnesty a player, and Bryant is one of four players the Lakers can do it to. The others are Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace and Steve Blake. If the Lakers waive any one of those players this summer, they would not have to pay luxury taxes on their salaries, but they would still have to pay that player's salary."

Los Angeles Lakers call Mark Cuban's remarks on Kobe Bryant 'inappropriate'

 

[nuraman00]

Houston plays a game on national TV this Friday. If it's competitive, maybe I can watch and finally provide something insightful about them this year.

Every time I've tried to watch them, they've blown out other teams (or one time been blown out), so I stopped paying attention. I don't care about them that much to watch them in a regular season blowout. If it was a playoffs game, I'd pay more attention, because of the importance of the playoffs.

 

[nuraman00]

BTW, to show you what I mean when I say I'd watch them if it was a playoffs game and they were being blown out, because of the importance of the playoffs, I'll give you an example.

During the 2005 playoffs, Indiana-Boston and Houston-Dallas were playing a pair of game 7 double-headers on TNT.

That was the worst double-header I've ever seen.

Indiana beat Boston by 27 on the road, and Dallas beat Houston by 40.

But I watched all of both games, because they were the playoffs, and it was a game 7 especially.

 

[MHSL82]

Houston plays a game on national TV this Friday. If it's competitive, maybe I can watch and finally provide something insightful about them this year.

Every time I've tried to watch them, they've blown out other teams (or one time been blown out), so I stopped paying attention. I don't care about them that much to watch them in a regular season blowout. If it was a playoffs game, I'd pay more attention, because of the importance of the playoffs.

BTW, to show you what I mean when I say I'd watch them if it was a playoffs game and they were being blown out, because of the importance of the playoffs, I'll give you an example.

During the 2005 playoffs, Indiana-Boston and Houston-Dallas were playing a pair of game 7 double-headers on TNT.

That was the worst double-header I've ever seen.

Indiana beat Boston by 27 on the road, and Dallas beat Houston by 40.

But I watched all of both games, because they were the playoffs, and it was a game 7 especially.

I wish I had your passion. I only watch the Jazz or close games... regardless of when. Now, I'll watch some Rockets games because of Lin, but not blow-outs. They are classless dicks when they blow people out. They celebrate, add-on, etc. Of course, Lin isn't playing then, so I lose any little interest I would have. He actually told them not to shoot on the last possession of the Jazz's 45 point win and they didn't listen, opting to shoot a three with time left in the game but no shot clock.They missed and the Jazz got a meaningless three at the buzzer or thereabouts.