ST thread

[Redsfan1507]

Lorenzen was impressive- pitched well and had a behind the back snag too. He's probably too early to start FA clock, and has options to consider...but I really don't believe in Cingrani or Maholm, or Axlerod.

 

[JohnU]

IF

this team could score runs, I might be inclined to hand the ball to Maholm.

Otherwise, I am clueless about what to expect.

 

[JohnU]

As usual, I am a realist when it comes to pitching injuries. Anything from the wrist down to the fingernail is curable. Anything else, unless it's a sprained ankle, is suspect. Knees, hips, backs, shoulders, elbows, particularly shoulders -- not many guys actually recover from serious shoulder injury.

So ... how bad is Marshall's? I'd say, career-ending.
So ... how bad was Cingrani's? So far, apparently not too bad.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds could be down to only Homer remaining from the 2014 SP's next year. The Reds have been drafting a lot of arms with their top picks the past 3-4 years. They're going to have to sink or swim with these guys sooner or later.

I like the future of the young arms a lot more than the "wing and a prayer" guys were going to see toeing the rubber this year.

 

[chico ruiz]

agreed mr. h & r. if jocketty has implemented any sort of plan, it has been in drafting young power arms, in the early rounds, since 2011. he said exactly that at the winter meetings when he announced the latos and simon trades. the amount of time it takes for their development has always been the key. and, of course, the business side (arbitration clock, free agency timing, etc.). starting pitching in 2015? i don't know. it could be surprisingly successful. it could be horrible. i do know that it hasn't been this questionable since before 2010. lorenzen, stephenson, travieso, howard, etc seems like a good crop of young pitchers. maybe they will be like nolan, simpson, and gullet in the late 60's? difficult to differentiate pre and post free agency business model, injuries, rate of development, etc. but, the golden eggs are all in one basket. and on the face of it, the latos / simon trades looked like last hour desperate salary dumpings. on the other hand, it's spring training. hope springs eternal etc etc. the reds have a shot at this thing. they really do. i like when teams fly under the radar. this particular team actually has something to prove this year. inspiration and motivation can be a valuable tool. reds potentially could absolutely bludgeon teams. 2 thru 7 could all hit 25+ home runs and have 80+ rbi. why? because they have all done it before, and in most cases multiple times.

 

[JohnU]

I think most teams are on the lucky-break bubble when it comes to developing young pitchers. One of the more interesting franchises over the years in that respect has been the Mets. I recall them coming into some seasons with a can't-miss rotation ... and two years later, the whole bunch of them were either on the permanent DL or were trying to recover their careers in some Triple-A camp. They might be at that point again but they are a prototypical franchise to watch in that respect.

Other franchises seem more inclined to fill in with signees, though St. Louis is a clear exception. We have evaluated their success and part of it is due to just being smart at the right time. The Cardinals have too much balance, however, to let a pitching hiccup spoil their party. Alternately, they have lost Waino, Garcia, Wacha, Motte, Carp, and and a few others for extended periods since 2010 ... and they are always in contention.

The Reds just don't seem to get past the "pass go" mark when these problems happen. Personally, I don't think the front office advances its talent quickly enough. Perhaps the Homer Bailey history was a harbinger of the risk, but Leake was not. Nobody seemed to have a clue on how to handle Chapman, with a talent so rare as to confuse even the best of them. Today, he's the biggest waste of a resource since Babe Ruth -- and at least Ruth could pitch.

To take a look at this unit, Bailey has to pitch this year -- and soon. He has to pitch better than he did. Often.

Leake has to win 3 out of 5 games.

This offense has to do better. They have to keep Cueto in the game and they have to prop up Cingrani, and Whoozits (the fourth and fifth guys). If they want to win, that is what they have to do. There are no miracles in this league now. Mark Fidrych came and went.

In all aspects, personally, I think the margin for error is too slim. These guys can make a run at the post-season, but they can't finish the deal.

As for the young arms, the front office has set that bar -- and these guys will not get the chance to improve at the top level until they are too far along to get it done. The Reds front office slammed the window on its own fingers. And signing guys like Paul Maholm to make up for it is just silly putty.

Whatever happens this year might be as good as it gets for a very long time.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Baseball is always high roster turnover business. Relatively speaking, lots of competition and short shelf life. Contracts are so large they are an impediment to progress as often as they are a key to progress.

Obviously, lots of prognosticators don't believe in the Reds ingredients this year- most have them pegged for last in the NLC. I believe the Brewers and probably the Cubs are both worse, barring unusual occurance, but my point is, the contending Reds strength was pitching, and at face value, it's weaker now.

Unless Cingrani develops a couple more pitches he can throw for strikes and get a couple innings deeper into starts, he isn't an answer above an occasional spot start or mopup longrelief role. I have zero faith in Marquis, not as much for his age and unimpressive fastball, but the fact that half of MLB teams have dumped him- that many teams can't all be wrong. Maholm is a soft tossing lefty- useful, if he can keep righties in the park and throw breaking balls that get strike calls on the black. His margin for error is smaller than better armed pitchers, IMO. I don't know enough about Desclafani to offer an opinion. I've seen lots of Reds farm pitchers look impressive for a time, but sample size is too low for me to project over 25-35 starts.

I'm sure if the Reds only needed 1 SP rabbit, they could easily pull one out of the hat. Pulling 3 out, sounds like desperation to me. Cueto, Bailey and Leake are mandatory to be on the job and effective. Pretty much like the everyday position starters, I suppose. I wouldn't ask for more than 1 new happy surprise per year.

BTW- Joey Votto played yesterday !! Got a single. HOO-RAH.

 

[JohnU]

Price basically has three starting pitcher spots being challenged by four guys who are no better than a No. 4 guy in the lineup.

Using my own scale for effectiveness, I figure a No. 1 guy ought to be successful about 67 percent of the time. The No. 2 guy ought to win around 60 percent (or a little less) and the No. 3 guy ought to be just a hair around 55 percent. I figure the No. 4 guy should win two out of five times he pitches and the No. 5 guy ought to just be able to give you 5 innings, regardless of outcome.

Those numbers can change due to variables and sometimes you just win because you outscore the other team. The problem is, Cueto got very few no-brainer wins last year. Very few. In fact, not many pitchers do these days.

The point here is that the Reds just do not score enough runs to allow their 3-4-5 guys to get lucky and win one without having great stuff. Cueto can survive an offensive drought and so can Bailey when he doesn't get sloppy. Leake is marginally predictable now. If he gets 4 runs behind him, he can give you 7 OK innings. Remember, Leake was a No. 3 guy last year -- 2 out of 4 for a guy currently our No. 2 starter. Gads.

After that: Maholm, Marquis, Cingrani, Holmberg and maybe somebody who can't play LF ...

What worries me is that after Cueto, the Reds don't have anybody who can blunt a 6-game losing streak. If Cueto gets beat 3-1, it could be a very long week.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I'd agree the perception is the Reds pitching is going to be weaker. I think that assumption is based on assuming Latos and Simon were going to have good seasons which may or may not be true.

Latos was essentially a non-factor last year due to injuries and Simon had Jekyll and Hyde 1st and 2nd halves. Bailey only made 23 starts contributing to the Reds using 10 different SP's last season. The Reds were 69-69 in games that were started by Cueto, Bailey, Leake, Latos, and Simon. So 50% wins by the rotation is the baseline for comparison. Scoring more runs would help and most likely will be needed for this staff to reach .500.

The offense needs to improve, but so does the bull pen. In 2012 the bull pen was 31-22 with a 2.65 ERA. Last year they posted a 11-31 record with a 4.11 ERA. That's a 20 win and nearly 1.5 run differential between the 97 win 2012 team's pen and the 2014 pen. The offense played a role in late inning losses, but the pen was awful.

 

[JohnU]

In no particular order, Hoover, Parra, Ondrusek and LeCure were brutal most of the time.
In some cases it wasn't that they lost the game, it's that they pitched so poorly as to put it out of reach in the 8th inning. When your offense is based on a bloop and a couple of wild pitches, being down 1 run is a whole lot different from being down 4 runs.

And of that four, three of them are back.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

And just when I was starting to feel optimistic..... Ugh!!
Thanks John.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Most bull pen guys are like a Forrest Gump box of chocolates, "You never know what you're gonna get". With small sample size innings pitched ERA's can be deceiving, but nonetheless the runs count. Too many relievers struggling with command equals added balls in the middle of the dish disappearing as souvenirs. JJ Hoover would be the prototypical long ball reliever.

A few minor injuries led to players being scratched from Sunday's lineup. Mesoraco has mild concussion from a foul ball. Frazier has back spasms which is no big surprise with his unbalanced swing mechanics. Phillips has a groin issue. Leg problems for a aging middle IF, why does that sound familiar? Hamilton with mild shoulder soreness from crashing into the OF wall. All minor type injuries, let's hope that's the trend for 2015. Guys are going to be nicked up throughout the season, but those 15-60 DL stints were the killer for this team last year.

 

[Redsfan1507]

It could be worse. The Rangers had a historic DL last year- they used like, 60 people, a ton of pitchers, 11 firstbasemen, etc. Looks like Darvish is going to need TJ, and Fielder is trying a comeback after spinal fusion surgery.

I was surprised at Simon's 1st half, but he was a vet. I'm not as optimistic about small sample guys like Desclafani and Cingrani, and really low on Marquis because of his (possibly time to retire) sample size. But not many had heard of Cueto once upon a time. There is always room for optimism this time of year I suppose.

Bailey is going to be important in this SP mix. The middle bullpen is always exposed more with short inning SP's though, my main concern with filling 3/4 of the rotation with low inning kids and old guys.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Desclafani is a control, pitch to contact type hurler. He throws a little harder than Mike Leake, but profiles much the same. Might get the Reds 6-7 innings. Keeping the ball in the yard will be imperative for most Reds' pitchers, but especially the high whip guys like Desclafani and Leake.

Cingrani had early success until the league developed a book on him. He's definitely a one trick pony, walks too many and will burn up the bull pen. Prone to BB's and HR's, a really bad combination.

Marquis has pitched well his first two outings. Which may not be a good thing. The regular season probably won't be as kind.

If the Reds are in need of middle relief often, stick a fork in the team. As John mentioned, a team that struggles to come back from a run down isn't going to fare well when that deficit grows.

 

[chico ruiz]

i think you guys are all hitting the nail right on the head. a big part of the starting pitching's potential success lies with cingrani, holmberg, and desclafani's development of second and third pitches. and, the confidence to throw them in any count. "the confidence to throw them in any count." how many times have we heard that quote? nevertheless, as we all know, it is the key to success at the mlb level. leake came to mlb with that confidence. he's not stephenson-like over powering, but that's also why stephenson struggled at AA last year and gave up so many home runs. couldn't get guys out with only 95+ heat consistently. he did K a lot of batters, but when they caught up to his #1 the ball went a long way. axelrod had good numbers last year as a red. could be an interesting fill-in. iglesias might find that confidence quicker than the above mentioned SP's. my red's loving heart sunk a little bit when i read a interview, with manager price, in which he sounded virtually committed to marquis or maholm as one of the opening day roster SP's. marquis reminds me of peavey, minus the chewing tobacco. he doesn't have latos stuff, but that's only from the neck down. maybe his surgery gave him some new life. he did seem to be letting it go free and easy in ST game #1. another jocketty refugee. but, what the hell, he's a competitor. the thing that does give me hope with this team is the stockpile of good, seemingly healthy, young arms in camp or in the organization. stephenson, lorenzen, corcino, travieso, howard, garrett, moscot, crawford, and more. maybe one or two of them will be ready by may. it is the strength of the organization. management is always wary of shaking their confidence by bringing them along too quickly. bailey is usually an example that is used as the negatives associated with too rapid a ascension. lorenzen and adcock have looked good from what i have seen. but, you guys are right. it remains a big mystery.

 

[JohnU]

I'd say that if these guys are even close to contending by the first week of September, it will be a bonus. I think the makeover is due to happen.

I am an advocate of pitchers who just go out and pitch and let the offense score runs.

What worries me is that the offense isn't going to be all that much better, unless the top guys are in there 145 games. Why am I not optimistic about that?

 

[Redsfan1507]

Desclafani wasn't fooling anyone today- 3IP, 5H,1BB, 3 runs. Badenhop threw BP again. Joey made another appearance-walked and struck out. Juan Duran hit a big HR....he's a big guy.

On another note, Price made a statement today that kind of sounded like Latos...said Jay Bruce shouldn't have played so soon after his injury last year. He didn't blame the Med staff, rather citing the Reds lack of talent and need for him to play, and Bruce feeling obligated to help....just the same, it sounded like pressure real or perceived, to get on the field ASAP. Obviously, JV didn't get that memo.

 

[JohnU]

I think there are enough of us old veteran fans who don't buy the Kool Aid that comes out of camp. CBS had this today ... and to say that these guys are performing at a very high level is just a load of crap. It's still a pitching staff that the 1962 Mets would have thrown back.

Six pitchers vying for last two spots in Reds' rotation
-- CBSSports.com
Six pitchers are competing for the fourth and fifth spots in the Reds rotation, and a week into spring training games, the races are still too close to call.

The half dozen pitchers have combined to give up one earned run so far this spring.

Lefthander Tony Cingrani hit 94 MPH with his fastball, showing that last season's shoulder trouble is behind him.

Righthander Anthony DeSclafani gave up an unearned run in his first start. "I felt like everything was working," he said.

Manager Bryan Price declared Cingrani and DeScalfani the early favorites.RHP Jason Marquishas thrown five hitless innings to work his way into the mix. RHP Raisel Iglesias and LHPs David Holmberg and Paul Maholm have also been effective.

"At this point in time, we've got a great list," Price said to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. "It would be a very difficult challenge to feel like we've got it right if we had to make our team today because so many of these guys are performing at such a high level."

 

[WvuDieHard]

I see the Reds making a move on some of these guys because some of them are useable talents on other major league clubs. So it could be that we move a couple to fill some needs once we see the deficiencies that this club has at certain positions.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I listened to game Desclafani gave up the three runs in yesterday. Not the same as seeing for yourself, but better than going by the box score.

Three ground ball singles mixed with a walk to Mike Trout and a one line drive. That's going to be common with the pitch to contact rotation guys. They're going to be dependent upon a bit of luck in regards to BABIP. When the ground balls result in outs they'll give you a quality start. When they find the holes the flood gates will open wide. Keeping the ball in the ball park and avoiding crooked numbers is a must for Desclafani types. A 4.50 ERA is what I expect, anything above that.......next man up.