SEC and the Next Best 3 Week 5

[Chewbaccer]

I'm back again for another week, and I think we got a little bit of clarity last week. Missouri lost on the road at Kentucky, which snapped a pretty long road win streak for Mizzou, and once again their offense looked terrible. The defense as expected wasn't bad, but I just can't see Missouri winning too many games unless they start scoring more points and moving the ball a lot better. I know Kentucky is a team on the rise, and they've been playing decent ball this year, but I absolutely did not expect Missouri to have their road winning streak snapped at the hands of the Wildcats. Mizzou has a tough row to hoe if they want to three peat as SEC East champs, and the rest of the SEC will be treading in dangerous waters if they take Kentucky too lightly. Kentucky still isn't a threat to win the East, but they are a team capable of wrecking another team's season if taken lightly.

And FLorida's win streak over Tennessee now stands at 11. That had to be a brutal finish for Volunteer fans. It was pretty much a mirror image of the Oklahoma game. Leading by two scores in the 4th, only to let the game slip away, and then barely miss a long field goal that would have won the game. Tennessee is a talented team, but they are going to have to start finishing games. You would have thought that Butch Jones would have learned his lesson about taking the foot off the gas after the Oklahoma game. When the other team gets momentum late in the game, it's hard to swing it back in your favor. Tennessee has three very talented wide receivers, they need to start using them. As for Florida, they're a sneaky team this year. They play good defense, which that has never really been an issue, but I think they're gonna seed some more consistency on offense of they are going to win the East. Grier looked pretty shaky last Saturday, and they have a big game against Ole Miss this weekend, and the Rebels might not be as forgiving as the Volunteers

You know times are tough in Auburn when you lose to Mississippi State at home. Sean White certainly didn't look great, but it was his first ever game in college, and I'm not sure how much you can really expect from him, but your hand is kind of forced when your starter plays as bad as Jeremy Johnson did. Auburn's chances at winning the West are now officially over. At this point, I'm wondering if they can even make a bowl game. In no game has Auburn looked to be even a decent team. Proves what preseason polls mean.

Now on to this week's games.

The Cupcakes


San Jose State @ Auburn- I hesitate to call any team a cupcake for Auburn at this point, but at least their defense decided to show up against Mississippi State. This is just a game where better talent will win the game for the home crowd. Not really much I can say to hype this game up. I know I won't be watching unless there's a chance for an upset. Final Score: Auburn 38-10

Eastern Michigan @ LSU- Syracuse stayed in the game a lot longer than any of us expect against LSU, but LSU wound up winning by two scores, and taking a knee when they easily could have scored another touchdown. Leonard Fournette has been nothing short of spectacular this season, and while I haven't watched an EMU game this season, I doubt they'll have much of an answer for him. This one will be over by halftime. Final Score: LSU 52-7

Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky- Kentucky is coming off of a big win over Missouri, and they already have two conference wins on the season, and they haven't even played Vanderbilt yet. They look like they have found something on defense after a shaky first game against UL-Lafayette. Towles and company should have no problem with EKU this weekend. Final Score: Kentucky 42-13


Could be a Close Game


Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee State- Vanderbilt doesn't have much of an offense. McCrary has potential to be a good QB down the road, but he's clearly a work in progress at the moment, and Webb can only do so much with a QB that can't pass and a mediocre at best offensive line. Vandy's strength is clearly on the defensive side where they have outplayed everyone's expectations. Vandy might be 1-3, but blame it on the terrible offense. Vandy held WKU to 14 points, Georgia to 17 on offense and just last week they gave the Rebels more trouble than any other team has on the season. MTSU isn't a bad team and should make a bowl game. They have a solid offense, and their defense is about average. I just see Vandy's defense coming up bigger later in the game and Vandy squeaking out a win on the road. Final Score: Vanderbilt 24-21


Eh, At Least They're Conference Games


South Carolina @ Missouri- Given how bad both of these teams are offensively, this will probably wind up being a close game. Missouri can't move the ball against mid majors, and South Carolina has looked just as bad. The big difference in the two teams are Missouri has actually played good defense this year. Their defense is the only reason they are 3-1 instead of 1-3. South Carolina has looked just as lost on defense as they have on offense. Hell, Georgia went from their opening possession of the game until garbage time in the fourth without ever even facing a third down against the Gamecocks. There will definitely be some entertainment value to this game. You'll see Missouri struggle to move the ball against another terrible defense. You'll see South Carolina unable to capitalize on some golden opportunities because they don't have a quarterback or a run game. In the end, I trust Mizzou's defense a lot more than I trust South Carolina's, and in games like this, it's normally safe to pick the home team. Final Score: Missouri 21-14

Arkansas @ Tennessee- A battle of preseason hype here. I was tempted to put this in the cupcake section, but as a general rule I won't put conference games in there. Tennessee should be 4-0 right now with two wins over big time programs. Instead they sit 2-2 with two double digit leads in the 4th quarter blown. In fact there have only been 3 games in the entire country where a team has blown a lead of at least 13 points and lost the game. Tennessee has two of those games. Arkansas is coming off of three straight losses. They did take A&M to overtime last week, but I'm willing to chalk that up to being a rivalry game at Jerry World. Arkansas looks pretty lost on both sides of the ball. They turned heads last season with their run game. They haven't been able to get the run game going this year, and Allen is not a QB you need throwing the ball 30+ times a game. The game is in Neyland, and Tennessee is a far more talented team. Barring a hangover from the tough loss in the Swamp last week, Tennessee should win this game fairly easily. Just remember, Coach Jones, don't take your foot off the gas, and don't start sitting on a lead midway through the 3rd and you should be fine. Final Score: Tennessee 35-14


Which Team is the Real Deal?


Mississippi State @ Texas A&M- This is an interesting game to me. Both teams come into this matchup ranked, a win for Mississippi State helps validate their ranking and keeps them alive in the SEC West, and a win for Texas A&M will go a long ways in proving they're worth a top 20 ranking. Knowing what we know now and seeing how bad Arizona State has been, this will be the first real test for the Aggies this season, and I do have some concerns. They needed overtime to beat an Arkansas team that lost to Toledo and Texas Tech and they allowed Ball State and Nevada to score more points than I would like to see if I were an Aggies fan. Mississippi State's defense has been surprisingly good this season. They shutout LSU in the second half, and if they had a good kicker, they would have won that game. They held Auburn to just 9 points last week as well. While I think a lot of Kyle Allen at quarterback, and he has a lot of weapons, I just don't see them being able to score a lot of points on the Bulldogs of the west. They're going to need a good game from their defense to win this one. Dak Prexcott hasn't been putting up the Heisman Finalist numbers he was putting up last season, but he has done a solid job in his senior season and they're not running as much option this season. It's tough to win on the road, especially against a division rival, but I think Mississippi State has the defense to slow down A&M and keep this a low scoring game, and IMO, a low scoring game will give Mississippi State the upper hand in a mild upset. Final Score: Mississippi State 27-21

 

[Chewbaccer]

Battle of the Unbeatens


Ole Miss @ Florida- This is a chance to make a believer out of the naysayers for both of these teams. We all saw Ole Miss go into Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama. We've seen Ole Miss hang some big numbers on the score board, and it appears that the Rebels have a quarterback that makes them more of a legitimate contender in Chad Kelly. The Rebels have a lot of talent of the defensive side of the ball as well. Robert Nkemdiche has a shot of being drafted first overall next year, and his brother hasn't been bad either. Ole Miss can throw the ball, I don't think anyone is disputing that, but Florida has a strong secondary, and Ole Miss will need to get some sort of a running game going against the Gators. What Ole Miss needs to do is play up to their talent level. They've brought in a string of good recruiting classes, the talent is there, they just can't go to the Swamp and lay an egg. Get a run game going, and let Chad Kelly do his thing.

For the Gators, they have a strong enough defense to where they won't be out of many games this season. The questions lie on the offensive side of the ball. Grier has had flashes of greatness, but he's also had his share of ugly moments, and if Florida wants to win this game, they're going to need to protect Grier from the pass rush of the Rebels, and winning the time of possession battle will be crucial. Long sustained drives, keeping their defense fresh and Chad Kelly and co off the field. Florida doesn't have a home run hitting offense. Really, their offense has struggled more times than not this season. Their defense and a Tennessee collapse has gotten them to 4-0. For Florida to win, they need to keep this a down and dirty game. They simply don't have the firepower on offense to win a shootout with Ole Miss, and if their offense can't sustain drives, their defense will eventually tire out against a strong offense like Ole Miss.

As for the game, I just can't see Florida scoring enough points to beat Ole Miss. Florida only managed 14 points against Kentucky, and other than the New Mexico State game, all of their wins have been a down and dirty fight. Ole Miss has the talent on defense to stop the Gators, and I don't trust Grier to beat a top 5 ranked team. It will be a close game at half time, but Ole Miss will begin to pull away as the Gators defense wears down. Chad Kelly has a big arm and a lot of weapons. If they can get any kind of run game going, Ole Miss should walk away with another quality road win. Final Score: Ole Miss 35-21


Game of the Week


Alabama @ Georgia- I don't think I need to tell you just how big this game is for both teams. If Alabama loses, their hopes for a playoff spot will end with 2 losses, and both of them being conference losses will likely eliminate them from representing the west in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia needs this win to prove themselves worthy of their top 10 ranking and a signature for the season. The last time these two teams faced was in the 2012 National Championship Game. It was one of the best conference championship games of all time. The names on the jerseys are different now, but it's always a big deal when these tow teams meet, and I don't think either coaching staff needed much help to get their team hyped up for this game. There is no looking to next week, there is no underestimating the opponent. This game will make or break the season for both teams. In my opinion, this is the biggest game the SEC has had so far on the season, and I don't think it will disappoint.

For Georgia, seeing Grayson Lambert be an efficient quarterback with the ability to throw the ball down field has to give the Bulldogs a shot of confidence heading into this game. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are arguably the best running back combination in the country, and there's little to no dropoff between the two, but going against Alabama's strong front seven, being able to move the ball through the air and effectively using play action will be a must. Georgia's defense has also looked impressive to start the season. They play physical, they can get in the backfield and the secondary has been able to make big plays. This looks to be the best all around Georgia team we have seen since 2012. It's early, no doubt, but if they keep doing as is, they will have a great shot to get a huge win between the hedges.

For Alabama, like Georgia, they have a great 1-2 punch at running back with Derrick Henry and Kenyon Drake, and I've been hearing that Bo Scarborough could be added to the mix this week as well, and their front 7 on defense is a force to be reckoned with. Jake Coker has looked a bit shaky at quarterback though, and their secondary hasn't been very good, and in what looks to be a tight game, the ability to kick a field goal could be huge, and that has long been an issue for Alabama. For Bama to win, the recipe doesn't look that much different than Georgia's. They need to move the ball both on the ground and in the air, and they will need their secondary to make plays. I have no doubt hat Alabama is still fired up and out for blood after losing to Ole Miss. Some extra motivation can go a long ways in a game like this.

For the game, I expect this to be a close one, and a hard fought battle by both sides. In the end though, I have more trust in Grayson Lambert than I do in Jake Coker, and I trust Georgia's secondary more than I do Bama's, and in a game like this, Marshall Morgan has been a solid kicker with a big leg throughout his career. Bama's kicking game is shaky at best. I'll call the running games a wash, passing game goes to Georgia, front seven goes to Bama, secondary goes to Georgia. Pretty evenly matched. I think Georgia's ability to be more balanced on offense and the ability to kick a field goal of longer than 30 yards will come up huge on Saturday, and it doesn't hurt that the game is in Athens. I won't lie, it's hard to do these things and completely remove the homer glasses, but I try to be as unbiased as possible in my picks, and to me, Georgia has simply looked like the better all around team, and they are the home team. Final Score: Georgia 34-28


The Next Best 3


West Virginia @ Oklahoma- Both teams come into this game ranked and undefeated, and in a conference with no championship game, the importance of each conference game is magnified, especially with the slim margin of error the teams have if they want to make the playoffs as we saw last season. For West Virginia, this is their first test o the season, and while their defense has looked good against scrubs, I want to see how they will do against a real team with a real quarterback. Oklahoma to me is the more talented team, and they're the home team, so I've gotta go with The Sooners. Final Score: Oklahoma: 38-28

Notre Dame @ Clemson- Both teams have looked strong this season, and both have playoff potential, and a win for either team will result in a big bump in the rankings. Notre Dame hasn't missed a beat since losing Zaire for the season, but with Georgia Tech not look like such an impressive win now, this is their biggest game of the season to date, and while they are unbeaten, the domers have looked beatable this season. For Clemson, their defense looks really strong, and coming off of bye week, they should be well rested and ready to go. This will be their first test of the season, but I expect them to pass with flying colors. Finals Score: Clemson 31-21

Arizona @ Stanford- This is a battle of 3-1 teams and could have big implications in the Pac 12. Arizona is coming off of a beatdown at the hands of UCLA at home while Stanford is coming off of an easy win over Oregon State and a huge win over USC two weeks ago. If Arizona loses, that will be two conference losses and essentially eliminates them from the Pac 12 championship game. With Oregon looking like they're going to have a down season, the Pac North is Stanford's for the taking. It looked bad at the time, but Northwestern looks to be a strong team this season, and not a terrible loss at the moment, and Stanford seems to have found themselves on offense, and they still have a solid defense. To me Stanford is simply the better team right now and they have a lot more momentum. Final Score: Stanford 41-32

 

[Norka!]

and in a conference with no championship game, the importance of each conference game is magnified,

Excellent point and very well stated, nice work Chewy! I like it, I like it a lot! The entire blog is what I like.

 

[rmilia1]

No love for Iowa-Wisconsin?? Bummer. Thought we may have snuck into the next best 3

 

[Chewbaccer]

No love for Iowa-Wisconsin?? Bummer. Thought we may have snuck into the next best 3

Was a tossup between that one and Stanford-Arizona. I think Zona is a better team than we saw last Saturday, so I gave them the nod.

 

[JuiceTheGator]

I can't argue with any of 'dat - that's unfortunate for UF. One of these days Grier is just going to blow us all away...but it's too soon yet.

Bama/Joja is going to be a great game.

 

[Chewbaccer]

I can't argue with any of 'dat - that's unfortunate for UF. One of these days Grier is just going to blow us all away...but it's too soon yet.

Bama/Joja is going to be a great game.

4-0 is a promising start though. 8-9 wins is doable for FLorida and should be considered a successful season all things considered.

 

[JuiceTheGator]

4-0 is a promising start though. 8-9 wins is doable for FLorida and should be considered a successful season all things considered.

I'm sure you realize how relieved we are to see good play calling, discipline and shit just generally coming together. Now we can easily bring in top talent to deepen the OL and other weak spots.

I just hope we don't have many injuries with UGay, LSU and FSUx still to go.

 

[mutiger]

Drew Lock to start at QB for Mizzou, you might start seeing some more scoring. Mauk suspended

 

[Shanemansj13]

Mauk and an offensive lineman are suspended for Mizzou.

 

[fordman84]

Wouldn't be surprised if you were spot on again about A&M. I do find it odd that we are discounted for winning a close Arky game (who was overrated), but MissSt gets credit for barely beating overrated Auburn.

This is exactly the type of game A&M loses when we are expected to win though. So not expecting them to win might be a good thing.

 

[bamafan]

Is georgia having a blackout by chance ?

 

[Runeman]

The Gators are very young. Should be a much better team next year. Now we no longer have a crazy man roaming the sidelines; Florida will return to greatness.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Wouldn't be surprised if you were spot on again about A&M. I do find it odd that we are discounted for winning a close Arky game (who was overrated), but MissSt gets credit for barely beating overrated Auburn.

This is exactly the type of game A&M loses when we are expected to win though. So not expecting them to win might be a good thing.

I didnt get to watch much of the Arky-A&M game, was A&M having an off game, did Arky play well, or was it a combination of both?
Trying to decide who to take on this Miss St-A&M game.

 

[Rebel]

Does mauk being suspended change that prediction?

 

[Shanemansj13]

Does mauk being suspended change that prediction?

Well they have a freshman coming in Drew Lock. If they cant beat Kentucky with Mauk, can they beat South Carolina without him?

 

[Deep Creek]

Wouldn't be surprised if you were spot on again about A&M. I do find it odd that we are discounted for winning a close Arky game (who was overrated), but MissSt gets credit for barely beating overrated Auburn.

This is exactly the type of game A&M loses when we are expected to win though. So not expecting them to win might be a good thing.

Good point. I can't figure if Arky was better last week or the Aggies aren't what we thought after week 1. (ala 2014) Several early games aren't looking as impressive as they were judged at the time. A&M>ASU, Mich State>Oregon, Miss State>Aub, ND>GT, etc.

History tells us things seem to tighten up once the meat of the conference schedule begins...regardless of the conference. Teams are familiar with each other and that usually levels things out. Also, teams can go in toilet quickly and get on a roll winning several close games.

 

[Deep Creek]

I didnt get to watch much of the Arky-A&M game, was A&M having an off game, did Arky play well, or was it a combination of both?
Trying to decide who to take on this Miss St-A&M game.

A&M struggled scoring against Arky which surprised me because Tech didn't really struggle. They basically run the same offense as Tech and have much, much more talented receivers. Which leads to a conclusion that Mahomes is better than Allen. Or Arky improved a lot in one week.

 

[Shanemansj13]

A&M struggled scoring against Arky which surprised me because Tech didn't really struggle. They basically run the same offense as Tech and have much, much more talented receivers. Which leads to a conclusion that Mahomes is better than Allen. Or Arky improved a lot in one week.

That leads me to believe Miss St can hang around with A&M or it was just a good matchup for Arky (not sure why though).

 

[BoiseMike19]

Was a tossup between that one and Stanford-Arizona. I think Zona is a better team than we saw last Saturday, so I gave them the nod.

Chewy, great stuff! Well thought out and pretty damn insightful. Holding off on next weeks picks till I read your input.