Reds VS Cardinals Series Thread

[JohnU]

I just don't want to wretch on still another comment about how when the Reds get all their injured players back, how we're still a long way to go ... and we could get hot at any minute.

Please, don't make me read that crap again.

 

[eburg5000]

I just don't see how anyone can blame this season on injured players. Every team has injured players. I just don't think the players we have are good enough. And the coaching is terrible. This team is set up to win games by hitting the 3 run homer. The Reds haven't hit many home runs lately, and if they do, no one is on base. Thus we don't score runs. To me that's a bad hitting philosophy.

 

[Kate Upton]

This season hasn't gone the way it had because of injured players, although the 2 bullpen losses have been large.

This season has gone the way it has because of Votto underachieving, and Frazier, Cozart, and "today's left fielder" being next to useless at the plate.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I wouldn't say hitting .320 Votto has underachieved, other than his D. Like BP's 30:30 year, i think Vottos HR numbers in the MVP year were an abberation. I do agree generally on the other. I'd also say the dugout hasn't been optimally efficient either. Vision SHOULD be 20:20 looking back, but the front office probably contributed a mistake or two also. It just wasn't a good mix this year I think.

It's not over, but the Reds have to make a sustained turn in a winning direction, or it will be over soon enough. Ludwick can't hurt. Neither could Broxton or Cueto or Marshall, or a sudden hot streak. The Reds played fine last night against a good A's team, without any of them.

 

[JohnU]

I think Votto's approach is connected to the anemia that has befallen this lineup generally.
SOME-body has to be on base. The problem with Votto is that he's fidding around taking walks by trying to manage the pitcher into a bad count. The first fastball he sees ought to be clubbed into the seats.
I honestly don't think Votto believes he can hit the long ball now, consistently.

 

[Redsfan1507]

In ok with a guy hitting .320 with 18-20 HR. If he's a 3 hitter, and any Frickin body is on base, he'll still drive in close to 100, or if he walks 150 times, just about any goon hitting above .250 and 20HR behind him will.

Who was Oaklands 3 hitter ? Take a look at them stats, and Votto looks a lot better. I can find absolutely NO fault with the Reds W-L record with Votto. NONE.

 

[Kate Upton]

In ok with a guy hitting .320 with 18-20 HR. If he's a 3 hitter, and any Frickin body is on base, he'll still drive in close to 100, or if he walks 150 times, just about any goon hitting above .250 and 20HR behind him will.

Who was Oaklands 3 hitter ? Take a look at them stats, and Votto looks a lot better. I can find absolutely NO fault with the Reds W-L record with Votto. NONE.

Not having anybody on base in front of him was last year's excuse...and it was a valid one.

Not this year though.

If he was more than a singles hitter, which his contract and slot in the order dictates that he should be, he would have more than 50 RBI.

He is hitting the ball with a lot more authority of late though.

 

[Kate Upton]

and it's not just the HR's from Votto...

Look at the doubles. They're waaaayyyy down.

If he were hitting 2B's this year at last year's rate? I think we'd all be happy and the team would be scoring a lot more runs.

 

[eburg5000]

Could be that injury is still lingering, There could be anther reason to. One that has been talked about a lot on another thread, but I haven't heard any rumor of anything like that. Hope not.

 

[Kate Upton]

Could be that injury is still lingering, There could be anther reason to. One that has been talked about a lot on another thread, but I haven't heard any rumor of anything like that. Hope not.

Could be.

I think he's WAY too selective up there, which is why he K's looking more than anybody on the team, and possibly in the league. You gotta expand that zone a bit sometimes, especially in RBI spots. I don't want to see him taking walks in those situations. He's supposed to be the hammer in this lineup.

And I don't want to hear the "pitch around" excuse either.

Chris Davis has had Matt Wieters hitting behind him most of the year for crissakes!

 

[JohnU]

It's fair to assume that we either have the wrong hitters, the wrong lineup, or the wrong approach ... and that's produced a very inconsistent offense over the last 110 games. That goes back to 2010, however.
I'm in the minority that says the hitters are much better than they've shown and if they show that they are better than they have produced, the lineup probably isn't a problem.
That's about approach. I put the blame on the process. If Todd Frazier is a .265 hitter, why is he hitting .235? If Votto is a .330/30/110 guy, his numbers should reflect that.
Today, the Reds offense all but shut down after the 4th inning. Yeah ... yeah, different pitchers. These are not great pitchers. They throw strikes. I didn't see anything that made me go "oooo, these are great pitchers."
If Corky doesn't get lucky twice, we lose that game.
Luck is way too high on the Reds dugout agenda.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Baltimore's cleanup hitter isn't on BP's HR pace. Votto does get pitched around, and its valid to a degree. Pitchers don't fear getting beat by a 2 run single, in a small park, they fear giving up a 3 run homer. That means Votto and Bruce, generally. Jay Bruce has Todd Fucking Frazier protecting him and he has plenty of HR, and 2B. He's also not going to ever draw 100 walks or hit .300.

Votto is smart enough to do the best he can, with who he IS, not chase what someone else wants him to be. That means he's going to slap the outside pitch to LF and get on base, instead of whiff 175 times hitting .260 and still only wind up with BP's HR total. It isn't the single with runners on that keeps you from driving in 100 runs, nor can 10 more HR add up to 50 more RBI. Votto's RISP is elite. Dunno if you've noticed how many times he comes to the plate with 2 out and no one on, but if it's once a game, and there is a base open another time a game, he's already down half his chances before he ever took a swing. He's only hitting .320, so that means he has 1 chance a game, roughly to drove that in. 100 RBI in a season is an elite benchmark, but to do it with only say, 162 chances instead of games, would make Roy Hobbs look like Zack Cozart.

Choo has done well, but the Reds 2 hitter has been non existent. That has limited Votto's RBI production more than any single factor id say. Choo AND Votto (2 likely baserunners) are THE reason BP is on pace for 100 RBI, NOT because he's hit any more HR or doubles.

I think it's ridiculous to blame Votto for offensive failure here.

 

[JohnU]

I think a couple of times on the western trip, I would not care if anybody on the Reds had 100 RBI or not, but rather in a couple of cases, would have settled for ... ONE.

 

[chico ruiz]

1507 is exactly right. votto is the most disciplined hitter i've ever seen. forgive me for repeating myself, but this is another revisited subject on this board. 2010 was indeed an aberration. it wasn't lucky. votto is very capable of such years. but, between now and 2024, expect consistently high averages, high obps, with an average of 20-25 hrs & 80-90 rbi per year. there are only a handful of mlb players with his ability at the plate. i would always take votto, in any situation (against any pitcher in mlb), over chris davis. in fact, i can only think of one other hitter i would choose over votto. i wonder if joey ever tried being a switch hitter? my god, that would have been something else. here's an interesting baseball fact: roger maris did not receive one intentional walk in 1961. of course, he had that one switching hitting player behind him who had a little bit of pop.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Put Choo and Phillips in front of Votto, and Bruce behind him, and watch what happens. Phillips average rises, Votto gets more pitches to hit, and his RBI and HR will rise. He'll still walk some, but Bruce will hit into fewer DP's and hit more HR than BP in the 4 spot...and last I checked, he's not hitting for a lower BA than BP, and they aren't exactly walking Bruce to get to Frazier anyway. It's Votto they fear, not people behind him, and with infrequent runners on its easiest to pitch around him. Justifiably so. It's not Votto not driving runners in check his RISP stats- he doesn't have them on TO drive in.

Choo on base this year is better than Phillips last year, but Stubbs last year isn't much different than the 2 hole this year, and frankly, BP is not much different power wise, but the drop in BA, OBP with negligible HR difference this season, has probably cost more runs than the difference in what he would have driven in from the top of the lineup. The Reds problem is they have too few RISP with less than 2 outs, not the ability to drive one in. No team hits .350 with 2 outs more than a short streak-the MLB average w/ 2 outs is about .200.

I've always believed the best way to win is to make the opposition do things they don't want to do, and an automatic out in front of Votto, and a warning track HR hitter behind him (no offense to BP) is exactly what they prefer. I'd bunch ALL the hitters at the top 4 spots and ask the rest to chip in once in a while. They'd score more on the 1st inning, and that's always an advantage . If you don't like that, just amputate the 2 hole (literally and figuratively ) and move everyone up a spot. If anyone thinks Phillips would be a better 3 hitter hitting .260 than a guy hitting .320. BP is a 1-2 hitter, not a 3-4 hitter.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'll be interested to see if Dusty inserts Ludwick back into the cleanup spot, and BP to the 2, or if he balks and leaves his no hitting 2 hole there, BP in the 4 spot, and hits Ludwick in the 6 hole, etc...that would mean either Cozart or Frazier would have to be the 2. Who hit there today ? Watch out, Dusty's trying to think again.

 

[JohnU]

Even if Frazier comes out of his funk, he's still not a very good choice to bat in the 2 hole.
Phillips is ideal there and I'd rather have sacrificed the cleanup spot this year than the 2 spot. For whatever reason that makes sense to everyone else, it evidently doesn't make sense to the dugout staff.

Owing to the results, one would wonder if they are doing what they do just because somebody told them it was a bad idea ...or if they just don't get it.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I suppose I have a pre-conceived notion of what lineup roles are, and they just don't jive with Dusty's pre-conceived notion of lineup roles.

I see a leadoff hitter as a high OBP hitter with steal speed. A #2 as a contact hitter that can hit behind a runner (literally and figuratively) that also can and will bunt, hit and run and steal. #3 is the best overall hitter, with some power. These guys job should be to get on and get over. The cleanup hitter and # 5 are power hitters that are primary Lineup protection for the top, and hopefully are more flyball (HR and Sac Fly) hitters than groundball (DP) hitters- getting the top 3 IN. The rest, are decreasingly dependable hitters, hopefull that contribute more on D than some of the prior bats.

Dusty doesn't use speed much even when he has some, and for whatever reason, his teams don't regularly get on or get over, and depend on the long ball to get them IN, without all those prior steps.

Winning is the only real way of ending such speculation, and even that is subjective. Dusty IS winning-by definition, since the Reds are over .500. The roster has limitations, and he's not a magician. He has limitations too, and unless the players can power up, the losses are inevidible, and half losses isn't inconceivable without all the planets aligning.

Is that Dusty's definition if winning ? Walt's ? Castellinis? Is winning making the playoffs ? Winning a playoff series, a home playoff game, or just being "competitive" and "winning" at the attendance gate ? I just don't know. If so, the team may feel they are more successful than some fans do.

For me, getting TO a NLCS or World Series is winning. Winning one is the ultimate goal. I despise the comparison, but where St.Louis has been the last several years is where id like the Refs to be- in off years, compete for playoffs, and every couple of years go deep in them, and every half decade or so, win it all. THAT is a consistently high quality product. They've had a consistently good farm, and attendance, and payroll, but they've consistently overcome change in personnel to, without compromising the W-L too much.

I like this team a lot better than say, 2008, but I expect more too.

 

[JohnU]

My friend, who's a lifelong Cubs fan, continues to chide me over my bitching about the Reds.
As she is quick to point out, it could be a whole lot worse. With that, I agree.
The problem is, as Cubs fans learned in 2007-8-9. the expectations are generally driven upward by the promise of success. I'd like to take this off the "Cardinals" thread, mainly because it reminds me of the Cardinals.

 

[chico ruiz]

2 things here that i would be concerned with if i was any mlb manager who found himself directing the reds. btw, and without concerning ourselves with the reasons, baker did change the 2 hole occupant. it would appear, permanently. the move seems to have done cozart some good, or maybe he's just getting better. yesterday, for the first time - i've seen - this year, cozart appeared to hit a ball to right field purposely. i really hope that's a harbinger of late season success for zack. he always busts it from home to first and, if nothing else, gives a good all-around effort. i've questioned his ability at times, but i always cheer for players like him because of the aforementioned. that's not sunshine seeking. that's being a baseball fan who remembers when that kind of hustle was commonplace.

the most interesting proposition is batting bruce 4th. the reds have tried this w/o a lot of success in 2011. i confess that i am a believer in the l-r-l-r-l-r batting order. it's even better with a switch hitter or two. the opposing manager is more likely to burn up his bullpen in tight ball games. if he only has one lefty in the pen he's in trouble with votto and bruce separated in the order. the point is: if you separate votto and bruce it's more likely an opposing manager has to use more than one lefty, and in most cases, that's all he has. if he has 2 or 3 good lefties in the pen he has a big advantage with a votto 3 bruce 4 order. i personally believe that would be a death sentence for the reds in later innings. you have to think in terms of likely potential match-ups beyond a couple of times through the order. imagine a playoff series with pittsburgh where they start liriano, locke, and rodriquez, and hurdle also has watson and wilson in the bullpen. votto can hit anybody, but his numbers are significantly higher v. right-handed pitchers. bruce has improved v. left-handed pitchers, but his power decreases substantially against them. as an aside, choo is batting .182 v. lefties, but still has a .327 obp against them.


as far as the 2 hole, who do you put there 1507? outside of putting phillips there and making bruce 4, which i really don't think is a practical choice in the nl central, who? do you stick with the line-up as is and give robinson 75+% of the starts in LF batting 2nd? he's a switch hitter and has an above average obp. imo, votto and bruce have to be separated. some would say this is good for baker, because then he doesn't have to think. but, i don't believe dusty has a choice there. he has to have phillips at 4 because there simply is nobody else, for now. if you move him to 2, then what? anybody other than phillips behind votto, and joey maybe breaks bond's intentional walks for a season record. that's not a knock on bruce, but rather baker putting him in the best position to succeed. i've put myself to sleep at night imagining every manner of line-up for this reds team. again, it's difficult, because there's no remotely viable RH bat with pop other than mr. phillips. i should add; no consistent RH bat. for instance, at this rate, i don't know if frazier will reach 20 hr's or 70 rbi, and he's going to get 100 more at-bats, in 2013, than he did in 2012. say what you will about ludwick, but he has a knack for driving in runs, even during his down years. 2008 - 538 ab's / 113 rbi. 2009 - 486 ab's / 97 rbi. 2010 - 490 ab's / 70 rbi. 2011 - 490 ab's / 75 rbi. 2012 - 422 ab's / 80 rbi. this is the approximation walt foresaw when he rolled the dice and signed ludwick in the off season, to bat 4th, and hopefully get 500 ab's. all that being said, ludwick may not be inserted @ 4 immediately, but if he shows any signs of major league life in his bat it won't be long before he's in the 4 hole. it's hard to get a real feel for how ludwick is doing with louisville just perusing box scores. i know he hit a home run off cumpton tuesday. is he hitting the ball hard? are they good at-bats? is he seeing the ball well and it's just a matter of timing and repetition? ryan definitely adheres to a couple of charlie lau's absolutes; rhythm in the stance, weight shift, bat position when the front foot touches down, striding, hitting through the ball (btw 1507, i'm sorry i didn't get a chance to respond to your excellent post on charlie lau a few weeks ago. he has to be considered the godfather of hitting coaches, doesn't he? apparently, charley finley didn't realize what he had, but joe rudi sure did). it's a dance, and ludwick has a lot of motion at the plate. if ludwick gets it going by the end of august, and is producing in the 4 spot, then none of what i wrote in the first 2 paragraphs matters. that's right, i used paragraphs. no indentation, but separation nonetheless.