Random Fantasy Baseball Thoughts

[MilkSpiller22]

Forgive me since I know nothing of fantasy baseball... but is there a site that tracks batting orders or typical batting position? I figure that a guy slotted to bat early in the lineup would have more chances than a guy who bats at the bottom. Or am I off base (pun intended)?

Mathematically, the higher Batting order has 18 more plate appearances than the next batter...

so the number one slot is up 18 times more than the number 2 slot, 36 more times than the #3 spot and so on...

 

[SFGRTB]

As much as that sucks for you, i have no problem with it because he got a better deal...

Yeah, I've gotta somewhat reluctantly go along with this. Handshake deal, you takes yer chances.

Yeah it blows, but there wasn't really any wrong doing. I should have just pushed more for a guarantee, but i didn't want to scare him off. I'm curious to see what guy he was targeting now.

 

[SFGRTB]

What prospect did you pick?

Ke'Bryan Hayes. Still could be useful for me though.

 

[Driaz]

My second favorite thing about this time of year; the bullshit managers and coaches feed to reporters.

Indians manager Terry Francona said Tuesday that he's considering hitting Carlos Santana leadoff.

It's unconventional because Santana can't run, but the 29-year-old boasts a career .365 on-base percentage and only Joey Votto has drawn more walks over the last five seasons. "The one thing I've thought about is Santana leading off," said Francona. "It's only a thought. Because of his skill set, I think he'd be one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. I know it's a little unique. Maybe out of the box, and you've got to have somebody who can hit cleanup." We'll have to see whether Francona experiments with Santana in the leadoff spot during spring training. From a fantasy perspective, obviously it would help his potential for scoring runs but hurt his ability to drive them in. The favorite to hit in the leadoff spot for the Indians on Opening Day is probably Rajai Davis.

It kind of still amazes me especially now that so many of the advanced metrics (can't believe I'm still having to refer to OBP as an "advanced" metric) are gaining acceptance how so many managers still set their lineups on decades old anecdotes on lineup construction. Why are teams like the D-Backs trying to put a .300 OBP guy at the top of their lineup? Same with Hamilton and the Reds. Just two of probably about half the teams off the top of my head. How does them being fast help the team score more runs? You have to get on base in order to score, right? Obviously I'm over-simplifying a bit and the fast guys seem logical that they could score more often than a slow guy once they get on base but I'd love to see some numbers to try and quantify that and see if there is some intersection that optimizes speed/obp ratio to runs produced.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

It kind of still amazes me especially now that so many of the advanced metrics (can't believe I'm still having to refer to OBP as an "advanced" metric) are gaining acceptance how so many managers still set their lineups on decades old anecdotes on lineup construction. Why are teams like the D-Backs trying to put a .300 OBP guy at the top of their lineup? Same with Hamilton and the Reds. Just two of probably about half the teams off the top of my head. How does them being fast help the team score more runs? You have to get on base in order to score, right? Obviously I'm over-simplifying a bit and the fast guys seem logical that they could score more often than a slow guy once they get on base but I'd love to see some numbers to try and quantify that and see if there is some intersection that optimizes speed/obp ratio to runs produced.

there are some stats... None are perfect... but baseball references does have a run scored percentage when on base...

the biggest problem with runs is that it is a team stat... It is very hard to find a player independent Runs stat...

 

[Driaz]

there are some stats... None are perfect... but baseball references does have a run scored percentage when on base...

the biggest problem with runs is that it is a team stat... It is very hard to find a player independent Runs stat...

Yeah, that's what I was wondering about....player independent Runs to see if one can find an optimum speed/obp ratio when put in a replacement level lineup would score X amount of runs. I know there are runs/created type stats, but curious if there was anybody working on such a monster as I described. Of course as I stated, I'm using something that has no numerical value (speed) to a countable ratio OBP. I guess the work would have to start with coming up with an accurate way to mathematically represent (speed) or more correctly in the context I'm referring to (ability to run the bases acceptably without making outs) since some fast guys are very stupid when it comes to running the bases.

 

[Driaz]

Also, another variable is how to account for dumb base coaches to try and isolate player independent base running skills...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Yeah, that's what I was wondering about....player independent Runs to see if one can find an optimum speed/obp ratio when put in a replacement level lineup would score X amount of runs. I know there are runs/created type stats, but curious if there was anybody working on such a monster as I described. Of course as I stated, I'm using something that has no numerical value (speed) to a countable ratio OBP. I guess the work would have to start with coming up with an accurate way to mathematically represent (speed) or more correctly in the context I'm referring to (ability to run the bases acceptably without making outs) since some fast guys are very stupid when it comes to running the bases.

Speed has a numerical value, Stolen bases, SB%, XBT%, etc... But speed, as great as it is is dependent on others... It is very possible to create a Runner independent stat, using MLB averages behind the player... you can easily give an expected value... But there is just a lot of work needed to put into that...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Also, another variable is how to account for dumb base coaches to try and isolate player independent base running skills...

that is almost built in already...

 

[Driaz]

that is almost built in already...

Not as a way to isolate the player from the team/coaching system. A player on a team that is extremely aggressive on the basepaths will have players that statistically look worse because they get thrown out more often. As you stated, all the metrics we have now don't have anyway to isolate individual player performance in this area.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Not as a way to isolate the player from the team/coaching system. A player on a team that is extremely aggressive on the basepaths will have players that statistically look worse because they get thrown out more often. As you stated, all the metrics we have now don't have anyway to isolate individual player performance in this area.

OK I misunderstood... I was saying that it would be built in to the runs stat, since it is basically just an outcome(safe or out)... But it is too hard to use that in a runner independent stat...

 

[Chef99]

Peter Gammons reports that Dusty Baker doesn't mind having children in the clubhouse.

What Gammons leaves out is that rookies are another matter entirely.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Peter Gammons reports that Dusty Baker doesn't mind having children in the clubhouse.

What Gammons leaves out is that rookies are another matter entirely.

Yes. Tre Turner has little hope... even Michael Taylor has little hope.

 

[Chef99]

Yes. Tre Turner has little hope... even Michael Taylor has little hope.

I feel bad for Taylor. Trea hasn't exactly helped his cause by hitting .190 this spring. I still think he'll be up at some point, tho. Unless Espinosa has sold his soul to the baseball gods by shaving off that 'stache.

 

[tlance]

there are some stats... None are perfect... but baseball references does have a run scored percentage when on base...

the biggest problem with runs is that it is a team stat... It is very hard to find a player independent Runs stat...

It is difficult to know what to do with Billy Hamilton. He probably has to hit 9th, right? If he bats first, his inefficiency kills too many opportunities, but if he bats in front of the pitcher, his speed is kind of wasted. At the 9 spot, you minimize his ABs, while also maximizing his chances to create a run on the base paths if he does get on.

 

[Chef99]

It is difficult to know what to do with Billy Hamilton.

Wait and draft Billy Burns instead!

 

[tlance]

Wait and draft Billy Burns instead!

I agree. I meant in real life.

 

[molsaniceman]

I agree. I meant in real life.

Does he get a pass cause he is exciting to watch when he does get on

 

[TKOSpikes]

It is difficult to know what to do with Billy Hamilton. He probably has to hit 9th, right? If he bats first, his inefficiency kills too many opportunities, but if he bats in front of the pitcher, his speed is kind of wasted. At the 9 spot, you minimize his ABs, while also maximizing his chances to create a run on the base paths if he does get on.

It's a shame really. I'm no manager, but it's not rocket science to me. Billy is no switch hitter. He was "forced" to switch hit four years ago. If you can switch hit, fine, be a switch hitter, but I just don't comprehend any reason towards doing it just because.

Leave him on the right hand side and leave him at the top of the order. Period. He WILL steal 60 bases at minimum. It doesn't matter to me if he's a .270 obp guy. And maybe, if they do just leave him alone, he can be a .300 obp guy. And which ever one it is won't change their playoff batting order... because they won't be sniffing the playoffs anyway.

Just watch for improvement and teach... but most importantly, keep him out of the left batter's box! Then maybe in 2018 you have a .330 obp guy with 100 SB. Or maybe you have someone who can't tie Drew Stubbs' cleats... at least you'll know. Trotting a guy put there who can't swing a lefty bat against the likes of Wainwright and Arrieta helps nobody.

 

[Chef99]

That's a bingo right there, I think. I remember reading awhile back how Hamilton has been a stressed out camper since he was told to begin switch hitting.