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Official Post-Draft Analysis 2017

Paper Tigers

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Own Team Analysis:

- For the second consecutive year, I started with two mediocre keepers (Took Kyler Murray to try and avoid this next year). Getting the 12th pick meant there really are no Top 30 players on my team. That’s a tough place to start. Considering that, I am satisfied with how the draft went for my team apart from having Hicks and Patterson go right in front of me in the first round. At QB, I have two dual-threat QBs at the top. I sort of felt forced into Wimbush as I don’t like their schedule or new offense. Troy Williams is key. If he is the starter at Utah, there should be three good QBs since they are going AirRaid-ish. At RB, I used 3 early picks on this position. Dedrick Mills may have gone a bit early but they are not deep at that position and GTech RB can pile up the TDs. I really thought that John Kelly would be gone at that point. Don’t really love him but adds some depth at RB. Wouldn’t be shocked if LJ Scott ended up not being one of my top 2 RBs. I left WR for a little later in the draft. Then took a bunch of them in the middle rounds with hope that someone like Cobbs, Holmes or Morgan will hit big. Have high expectations for Proehl to catch 70-80 passes. Overall, this is probably my weakest team on paper that I can remember going into the year. But there have been two years where I thought I had the strongest or close to strongest squad only to see that unravel with injuries/performance so who knows. Waivers can make a big difference also. I added Philip Lindsay and Austin Carr to make up for a mostly crummy draft last year and finish in the top half of the league.

Favorite of Own Picks:

- Round 5 – John Kelly - I thought he’d go third or fourth round but this was end of the 5th. Not much depth at this position, but Tennessee should still score. Seems like there is decent upside here which is why I went RB when I didn’t want to. Some obvious games to sit him vs Bama, Fla, LSU, Mich but maybe can start in some nonconference games or Mizzou, Kentucky.

- Round 13 – Stanley Morgan - Nebraska is supposed to throw this year. They have the QB that Riley wants. They don’t have many great weapons and Morgan is said to be the No.1 even with off field trouble.

Least Favorite of Own Picks

- Round 2 – Brandon Wimbush – Just don’t like him that much with the schedule but didn’t know where to go at pick 13. Had a clear top 12 and those 12 went 1-12. Looking at the picks after him I really don’t know who I shoulda taken. Don’t love any of the guys taken 14-18 that much.

- Round 15 – Jacob Park – I regretted this one about a round later. Thought the pocket passers would go a little earlier. I do think he’ll be OK if Lanning stays away from QB position, but I forgot that they may stick LB Lanning back to run some goalline stuff and that could make Park useless if they do go that direction.

Favorite of Other Team Picks: (Last year: Dede Westbrook, Tommy Armstrong, Justin Stockton, Reginald Davis, Mitch Leidner, Manny Wilkins/Brady White – Basically really right on one and wrong on all the others)

- Round 1 – Kyle Hicks – Waxy Frogs – I had Hicks as a top 3 player on board. I didn’t think he’d go Top 3 but I thought 4-8 somewhere. Versatile back with not much competition at the position. I think he could be a top 3 RB including keepers with like 15-18 TDs rushing and receiving combined in an improved offense. He’s the guy to own on TCU, IMO.

- Round 5 – Steve Ishmael – Heisman Hopefuls – The guy really didn’t show it last year but everyone seems to think that its him that will make the jump this year with Amba gone. The upside here is huge with how much they pass. The only real concern that I have is that the schedule features a number of really good defenses.

- Round 5 – Brandon Dawkins – Winsley’s Warriors – I actually considered him at pick 13 until reading more about their QB situation. With his rushing numbers, all he’d have to do is be average through the air to be a QB1. This assumes he wins the job which is not a definite. Love their schedule. Probably the best schedule for a fantasy QB in the country. I woulda taken him for value at end of this round.

- Round 12 – Marquise Brown – Orgy of Evil – Good upside at this point. Strongly considered him vs Willies at beginning of this round. Oklahoma will need someone to rack up the yards at WR.

- Round 17 – Cameron Batson – Winsley’s Warriors – I don’t know how much he’ll do as he faded off last year but that much production in that offense shouldn’t go Round 17.

- Round 19 – Malik Rosier – California Raisins – I think this is good value. I had considered him for a few rounds. I know he’s not the odds-on favorite to win that race and its quite open but if he wins the job, maybe he plays well and keeps it. Could turn into a QB2 with his mobility. At this point, he presents good value.

Other Team Picks I don’t like so much (Last year: Justin Jackson, Brad Kaaya, Austin Allen, Mack Hollins, Gerald Wicks – Basically right on all except Justin Jackson)

- Round 2 – Parris Campbell – Heisman Hopefuls – A lot of unknowns here for Round 2. Maybe he could be Curtis Samuel but he also could not be. I did not have him going this high at all. First pick that surprised me in draft.

- Round 3 – Kalen Ballage – California Raisins – Its not like he’s not worth something but first pick of Round 3 was early for me when so much of his fantasy value was in a single game vs Kliff last year. It is nice that he gets so much red zone work. I assume that will continue.

- Round 4 – Will Grier – End Zone Divas – He’s not gonna run much and their running game is strong. I think he will be a better college football player than a Soul12 player.

- Round 6 – James Williams – Drunk Jocks – I’d be curious to hear the rationale here. They just have so many RBs. I know his numbers last year were pretty good combining rushing and receiving but I just can’t picture how you could start a Wazzou RB when they rotate 3 to 4 guys almost interchangeably.

- Round 8 – J.J. Taylor – Orgy of Evil – Maybe you know something I don’t know.

- Round 9 – Jake Bentley – Asian Alley Cats – Criticizing Blitzer’s picks feels like talking about the Spurs 28th draft pick but without much mobility, it doesn’t seem like South Carolina is going to pass a ton so this feels early. I had him much lower – like Round 17.
 

Paper Tigers

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Team by Team Rundown:

Asian Alley Cats: Could be a little thin at QB after a strong 1-2 with Shimonek/Herbert. I don’t know about starting Bentley a bunch of weeks. Whaley could be great at top of RB and Terence Williams was very sneaky pick for late in the year. I like that move a lot. Top 2 WRs are tremendous. Really explosive starting lineup. A lot of receivers I don’t know too much about. If there is a hole/weakness, could be QB depth if Herbert went down.

Orgy of Evil: At QB, this team is solid 1-3. Running back is the strength of the team. As long as Shannon Brooks stays healthy, I don’t think Smith will be great. The key for this team will be for a WR or two to step up. Samuel seems like the only sure thing. Beyond that there is not much that is proven here but there are a bunch of guys like Stovall, and the Browns that could emerge as startable WRs. With Darnold, McSorley and Barkley, he may not need a ton of production from the WRs to win games.

Smurf Turfers: This QB group is scary. If Dungey stays healthy, they are scary. Lock will be very solid for bye weeks and Zaire does have upside I believe. Walton/Hill is good 1-2. I don’t like the depth at RB though after Hasty. Might need waivers for RB if things don’t work out for a couple of those guys. I don’t know that there is a definite #1 at WR here but both Phillips have produced well in the past. Would be helpful for this team if Nagel turns into NW’s #1. The QBs alone could make this team a contender.

Skeet Shooters: Interesting strategy to take both FSU running backs. Both Crawford and Johnson are the lead dogs within others getting carries. Probably a lot riding on Buechele since Johnson not expected to be full-time starter from get go. The 1-2 WR combo is strong. It will be interesting to see who steps up at 3rd WR since Indiana may not be so explosive offensively. Dudek went a little before I thought he would – who knows what to expect of him.

Heisman Hopefuls: With Bruggman at the top, the QB situation is comfortable. Ertz provides running numbers that few other QBs can. I like Love at Stanford a lot. He and Jackson are a strong1-2 punch at RB. Not sure if I’d want the monopoly on Texas Tech running backs. WRs are fascinating. I thought Campbell went early but like Ishmael. Janarion Grant could be terrific if Rutgers can just score a couple touchdowns a game. Not a bad idea taking two WRs from Penn State. This is a strong team that will be relying on Campbell to be Curtis Samuel and Bruggman to provide the 25 points a week.

Drain Bammaged: I noticed a lot of Auburn players on this roster then noticed the Auburn sign under the screen name so I get it now. Heavy southeast flavor on this team with FSU, Auburn, Alabama, Vandy, LSU, Miami, NC State all represented well. Francois is OK don’t think he’ll put up huge numbers. Harris is boom or bust to me. Lagow very solid to have on the roster. Ralph Webb so solid but can he keep putting up the TDs? Eventually Vandy will have to throw for a couple TDs. Some unproven WRs after first two. Sims catches a fantasy break with Gonzalez gone – that probably increases his value to make him a strong WR2. Weakness here is probably depth at WR if they don’t pan out.

Winsley’s Warriors – One of the least knowledgeable owners with one of the most solid teams. Probably had heard of about 5-6 of the players on his current roster prior to July 15th. Rudolph is a throwing machine. I’m not as high on Stidham as some and don’t see upside with Zach Smith but Dawkins intrigues me if he wins the job. A few long-shot young guys that could be worthwhile if they got the job in SEC. Pacific Northwest RB duo is as good as anyone’s. Interesting to see who 3rd RB is here. Could be one of about 5 guys. With Cornelius possible injury issues, this team may have to rely on its depth at WR with solid guys like Andrews and Batson possibly getting some starts.

End Zone Divas – I’m not a huge fan of the top QBs here. Browning has to regress with TDs and Grier doesn’t run much. Josh Jackson could be key at the QB position – that was a nice pick. Interesting play to take both Cal QBs. RB is strength of this team for sure with top 3 guys. Don’t love the WR core. Cain could be hurt by inconsistent QB play at Clemson. White could be the most reliable WR. Some very talented WRs deep on the roster but they might be a year away from Soul12 contribution. This team was behind the 8 ball with Chase Forrest as keeper to start.

Drunk Jocks – Love the 1-2-3 QBs in Hill, Patterson, and Wilkins. I think all are in position to succeed. Not sure that RBs can keep up with QB production though. Wadley may share with Butler coming in and we don’t know for sure about James. Hate James Williams as fantasy player. McMillan seems like he’ll get a lot of starts for this team then there are a bunch of guys who are no.2 RB on their team but one of those guys might benefit from an injury or something. I’m not as convinced as others that Coutee will be Texas Tech 1 but Tavares Martin should be Wazzou’s 1. Custis and Taj Williams are good longshot WRs. I like this team and could contend if Big Ten RBs work out.

Waxy Frogs – This is my favorite team on paper. It seemed like every round this team was taking a guy I wanted right in front of me or taking a guy I considered right after me. I feel good value was found with Hicks, Adams, Wilkins, Lazard, Rahming, Ateman. Mayfield and Jones will be a strong starting combination with Thorson getting occasional spot starts. Samuels is funky player with their offense at RB but he might not needed with the top 3 at RB. Pettis and Lazard are strong 1-2 at WR. Pettis might not have TD production but will be see more catches. Rahming or Renfrow could be reliable guys to plug into the lineup when needed. I don’t see any major holes with this team.

California Raisins – Always will find talent on a Navin roster. Didn’t understand the Eason pick so early but with the No.1 overall selection and an upside guy in Bryant the QB position could be very strong. Relying on a bunch of Pac-12 players behind Derrius Guice. Basically all Pac-12 players actually at RB/WR. Carrington is boom or bust. I think his production will determine with this team contends. With Barrett and Guice, this team could contend.


Bovada Soul-12 Championship Betting Odds (Last year the title game was between the No.1 and No.3 preseason Bovada odds teams!)

Asian Alley Cats: 4-1
Waxy Frogs: 11-2
Smurf Turfers: 7-1
Winsley’s Warriors: 9-1
Drunk Jocks: 10-1
Heisman Hopefuls: 12-1*
Orgy of Evil: 14-1
California Raisins: 15-1
Skeet Shooters: 18-1
Drain Bammaged: 20-1
Paper Tigers: 20-1
End Zone Divas: 22-1

*There have been reports of bettors purchasing two dollar tickets on Heisman Hopefuls with the plan of not cashing them out if the title drought ever ends (Chicago Cubs style). Please take note that this may inflate the odds of Heisman Hopefuls.
 

osubuckeye89

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Hella pressure on the new guy! I felt I drafted my team pretty balanced now hopefully I can make the right lineup choices during the season.
 

JonBlaze

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I look forward to these posts every year. Good stuff as usual Stevie.
 

JonBlaze

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I agree on a quite a few of the statements. I was bummed Brandon Dawkins went when he did. I thought everyone was done taking their early QBs at that point and I could sneak him onto my team.

I wanted Ishmael too. Partly because I got shit return on investment from him last year. The O looks legit to produce numbers and he's primed to be the lead big WR there.
 

batchaps4me

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First I want to thank everyone for allowing me into the league for my first NCAA FF venture ever. My only other FF experience was 5 years in a NFL FF league from my workplace. We used IDP and was a PPR league. I have no idea how to project the value of run/pass/recieving in this scoring system so I was woefully unprepared for the draft. My apologies to all, but someone has to finish last.

Very nice post draft analysis but you went too easy on me, IMHO. I intend to be serious about the league, learn and have fun. Hopefully the learning curve will allow me to field a competitive team sooner rather than later. Best of luck everyone and I hope for an injury free season for all!!!
 

The Q

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This is probably the nicest thing Stevie's ever wrote about my team.

He's pretty much right across the board.

But almost too nice. This team has a lot of risk IMO.

I could easily finish 5th in what is a loaded division.

I don't see how, barring a total catastrophe, anyone beats Seahawks in the other division.
 

Draft Crazy

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Good rundown Steve.

I figured Bentley would be on the "do not like" list. Guy I am probably higher on then most and think they will pass more than you do (not that I think they will pass a TON), I wasn't sure where anyone else would rank him. I figured I might be able to wait a bit on him as well. I wanted to get my #3 QB there soon and didn't see a lot I liked and kept thinking someone like Navin would nab Bentley (He seems to d.raft the SC RB/WR/QB a lot) leaving me unexcited about any 3rd QB. I knew he was a player that could go about where I took him or about round 15. When I had no 3rd QB I just sorta closed my eyes and said the time is now. I wasn't excited about the options there so pulled the trigger. I didn't want to get stuck with Wilton Speight again. ;)... Not every year can you have Mahomes, Dak and Kelly. Going in Bentley was more my plan for my 4th QB, but I had to stick to my plan when there wasn't much I liked there at that spot. I can see where Bentley would be on that list. Came in last year and they held back with him a lot, but I have high expectations this year. Don't think he will blow up fantasy wise by any means.

Overall I think everyone did a nice job. As always some reaches and some nice value.
 

Draft Crazy

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Also, felt OSU and Seahawk drafted the best on value this year.

I took a few more risks then usual but sorta wanted to have fun this year with my draft.
 

Red Snow

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Picks I liked and disliked

Liked
Kamryn Pettway- If this guy can stay healthy he is going to have a monster season.

Justin Crawford- West Virginia is going to run and run often.

Steve Ishmael- He should score touchdowns this year. I am not going to call him Ettwa, and he failed last year with the chance to become a #1, but I expect him to be much improved.

Josh Adams- I wanted to take him again, but he fell right before my pick. This is why I stumbled with my James Williams pick.

Treyvon Williams- Value. He had some huge games last year. In year two I expect him to be more consistent. He fizzled down a bit late in the year.

Jauan Jennings- Going to be a star.

Simmie Cobbs- If he can stay out of trouble off the field.

Jacquez Patrick- Much better pick then Akers.

Rico Dowdle- Uncrowded backfield. He looked good last year.

Mark Andrews- I see no clear #1 WR at Oklahoma. He's Mayfield's most experienced receiver.

Picks I did not like

Brandon Wimbush
Parris Campbell
Sosa Jamabo
Cam Phillips
Cameron Akers
Troy Williams
Jake Bentley
Daniel Carlson- (Great kicker, just way too early)
 

Draft Crazy

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This should be fun fellas. No matter how well or poor you do during the season, this draft is always a blast.
 

The Q

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guess we know where i blew it in my draft.
 

Draft Crazy

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No, no we do not.

It's an analysis, not reality. Believe in yourself Q. You took him for a reason.

#YouGot2Believe
 

The Q

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No, no we do not.

It's an analysis, not reality. Believe in yourself Q. You took him for a reason.

#YouGot2Believe

Right now I'm thinking that reason is that I'm not good at this S12 thing. lol
 

Draft Crazy

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This is the year of the Heisman Hopefuls.

If the Cubs can do it, Q can do it.
 

Draft Crazy

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I also wanted to note that I really liked the Chico McClatcher pick. I had him labeled as a player I must have this year, but then with Washington as a keeper and an early WR pick of Harry it just didn't match up well with me to take a 3rd WR so I knew he was going to go elsewhere. If he can stay healthy I think he can be pretty good. Maybe a bit inconsistent, but a big time playmaker on a good team with a good QB and not a lot of other WR's other then Pettis to spread the ball out amongst a hoist of players like many other teams have.
 

batchaps4me

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You might have well have put that last post in Sanskrit. I haven't been this much in over my head since I got off of submarines. I am glad that I've gotten by my whole life being lucky rather than good. There is much less of that thinkin stuff to do.
 
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