OD thread

[Redsfan1507]

No debate, a sub .300 OBP is bad....IMO, his unique skills and the sorely needed energy dynamic he adds to the team are noteworthy exceptions though.

I still don't understand how a full season position playing rookie that led all rookies in so many offensive categories gets beat for NL ROY by a half season pitcher though. NY media probably aided deGrom there.

Somehow, whoever hits behind Hamilton needs to take advantage of his steal threat/ speed, not be distracted by it. A legit strategy is NOT to steal, leaving the 1B hole open by the defender, so the hitter can exploit pulling the ball through the hole. However, Joey Votto isn't a pull hitter...therefore, IMO, I'd like to see Hamilton standing at 2b after a steal before Votto has 2 strikes as a general rule in that situation. No DP, a IBB decision to make by the D, and a RISP opportunity all support better % scenarios than what actually occurred on OD. A guy that can steal 50 or more bases isn't a solution in itself-team has to execute something behind those steals to score, especially if Hamilton isn't going to be on base more than 30% of the time. Votto isn't often going to get a runner to 3b on a single to LF, and stealing 3b isn't a high percentage play either. I'm thrilled with results Monday, but it wasn't exactly textbook strategy to plan on prevailing going forward.

 

[JohnU]

Hamilton is going to steal at least one base a game, generally, unless he doesn't reach base. . I am OK with stealing 3rd, but it's really not useful in Hamilton's case ... though the man on 3rd, less than 2 out, always a nice situation. Part of what needs to happen, moving forward, is in the 3-4 slots in the order. Frazier has assumed the No. 3 spot which was UP TILL NOW reserved for the best hitter on the team. Is Frazier now that guy?

One would assume that Toddfather needs to put the ball in play if Hamilton is on 2nd and Votto has been intentionally walked. But that's not going to happen often early in the game. Nobody is going to put baserunners on in the second or third inning. Maybe late in the game ... not in the first few innings.

Though the strategy of baseball has become very computer-graphic oriented now, so it's hard to tell what is what.

AGAIN the keys to this offense are people doing what they didn't do in the past. The Reds strike out way too damned much and Byrd is going to add another 2 whiffs a game.

 

[Redsfan1507]

We'll have to wait and see about who leaves for Bailey- there are 3 questionable SP in the rotation, and no one designated as a long man. Desclafani and Iglasias probably have options, so if one blows up, they might get sent down. In just hoping 2 of the 3 look like answers- if they all stink, it's not going to help an already thin pen.

 

[JohnU]

My guess is they are gambling that Iglesias has a bust-out rookie year. It's not quite as bad as trying to beat a slot machine but it's close. I think Cincy is hoping for some kind of magical new stellar Cuban talent to shift the limelight away from Yasiel Puig or the latest other immigrant superstar prospect. I have not read anybody say Iglesias is a "can't miss" prospect, so I gotta wonder what other agenda Walt and Banana Man have.

I thought it was odd that DeSclafani was tabbed as a starter within a half-hour of being traded. I mean, the ink wasn't dry on the internet before this guy was slotted in the rotation.

 

[wvu_man]

My guess is they are gambling that Iglesias has a bust-out rookie year. It's not quite as bad as trying to beat a slot machine but it's close. I think Cincy is hoping for some kind of magical new stellar Cuban talent to shift the limelight away from Yasiel Puig or the latest other immigrant superstar prospect. I have not read anybody say Iglesias is a "can't miss" prospect, so I gotta wonder what other agenda Walt and Banana Man have.

I thought it was odd that DeSclafani was tabbed as a starter within a half-hour of being traded. I mean, the ink wasn't dry on the internet before this guy was slotted in the rotation.

Speaking of DeSclafani and the trade, did you guys see Matty get smoked for 7 runs in 2/3 innings yesterday? It's gonna take a few good starts to get his 94.50 ERA back to a respectable figure. DeSclafani just has to get through the first inning this week and he'll already be off to a better start than Latos.

 

[JohnU]

One would assume that Latos won't be that bad all year.
Still, it's a short breath of fresh air. He'd be pitching tonight if he was in Cincy.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I agree with most of your post 1507, but most prolific base stealers say 3rd is the easier base to steal. Morgan, Ricky Henderson, Vince Coleman, Eric Davis, and Billy Hamilton steal or stole 3rd base at a higher success rate of 83-87%. Less attempts and more situational than stealing 2nd base, but nonetheless it's hard to beat those guys success rate. Stealing 3rd base with two out is always a cardinal sin, successful or not.

Votto is a unusual LHB in that he hits grounders to the right side and flyballs to the left. Teams play the shift accordingly and the hole on the right side is gone. Bruce is pull happy and there's no hole when he bats as well due to the shift. The Reds lack the protypical two hole LHB or RHB that has good plate discipline, sprays the ball into the OF, and can handle the bat to take advantage of hole. Hard to find all three qualities in one hitter in today's game.

IMO, Iglesias is going to be sent down when Homer comes off the DL. Not based on anything, just my opinion.

Homer is forecasted to be back for the road St. Louis series.

 

[wvu_man]

IMO, Iglesias is going to be sent down when Homer comes off the DL. Not based on anything, just my opinion.

I hope not...I'd rather see Gregg or Hoover go. We've only seen a small sample of Iglesias but with the potential weakness of the 4th and 5th SP's, I'd rather keep Iglesias for LR. I cringed when I saw the signing of Gregg. When he pitched against us, there was always a glimmer of hope when he trotted out of the bullpen and we were losing.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I agree WV, I don't think the Reds agree with us though. Gregg may not be in the 8th inning next time out, but they'll more than likely look to give him a chance to earn the money they wasted on him. The same is true for Marquis. Hoover and Desclafani have options, but I think they want to keep Iglesias stretched out and starting. Makes sense to move him to the pen.

I'd rather see Iglesias in the MLB pen the first half to conserve innings and possibly stretched out around the All Star break to replace one of the two that aren't going to give the Reds 200+ innings- Marquis and Desclafani. Iglesias won't give 200+ this year either, so there needs to be a plan to finish the season. Iglesias and Lorenzen would look like the most likely candidates to replace the first two starters to go down. They seemed to have given up on Holmberg, Corcino, and the older group of prospects.

 

[chico ruiz]

thought you guys might like to read this one. pretty scathing indictment of price & jocketty, but mostly of baseball in general. i read another article yesterday, and i quote, 'look, gregg is a bad pitcher and has been for a long time. it doesn't say much for an organization's decision-making if it thinks gregg is a key bridge between the starters and aroldis chapman.' 1 game / 1 decision. i didn't like it, but i'm not ready to crucify price yet.

definitely read this:

The Reds Actually Chose Kevin Gregg Over Aroldis Chapman | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[redsfan03]

thought you guys might like to read this one. pretty scathing indictment of price & jocketty, but mostly of baseball in general. i read another article yesterday, and i quote, 'look, gregg is a bad pitcher and has been for a long time. it doesn't say much for an organization's decision-making if it thinks gregg is a key bridge between the starters and aroldis chapman.' 1 game / 1 decision. i didn't like it, but i'm not ready to crucify price yet.

definitely read this:

The Reds Actually Chose Kevin Gregg Over Aroldis Chapman | FanGraphs Baseball

Interesting piece, for sure. Can't say I disagree with anything they say. It's truly a wonder how Kevin Gregg is still in the major leagues.

 

[JohnU]

I am a longtime opponent of the closer concept. This only amplifies that. Well-done piece.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I get why we saw Gregg, I just don't like it, and it really doesn't reflect on Price as much as Jocketty, or maybe it's just the MLBPA at fault.

Price explained his use of Gregg instead of going directly to Chapman, by saying they have to find other people and their roles too. He knows Chapman's role. He doesn't know what the others CAN be counted on for. Unfortunately, it is true.

Yep...but shouldn't at least a PLAN A have been made in spring training ? Or...are auditions still being made ? I think the answer is yes to both, and I think that is a shame- not because no one can be sure of how players without much MLB experience, or without much RECENT MLB experience will execute, until they have the chance, but because no team feigning challenging for post season should have the kind of guys on this pitching staff.

Kevin Gregg hasn't been an REAL answer, well, EVER. He's 36 and tosses an 88 mph groover. Here's a trivia question- when was the last time Gregg had 30 saves AND an ERA under 4.00- how about NEVER. Even when he had saves, he did it getting shelled. Jason Marquis is ALSO on his LAST CHANCE IN MLB, and it isn't just because he had TJ last year-let no one shit you. If he's in a long term rotation plan, it will be the first time since he was 30 years old- 6 seasons ago. I fail to believe ANY other team would have given him the opportunity to win a real rotation spot on their big club- except maybe the Yankees or Rangers, or an equally pitching-less team...like the Reds ? Nothing wrong with trying some ready young arms- Desclafani or Iglasias shouldn't have been locks though, unless there were just no other options, and any time you see Maholm and Marquis in camp that speaks to NO OPTIONS. I don't believe Cingrani is a legit SP option, because he doesn't have a second pitch, and can't throw enough non-hittable strikes, with his first one. Homer Bailey four years ago wasn't ready, but he had more MLB tools then, than Cingrani has now. Instead of sending him back to AAA to develop, he's in the bullpen- there's another clue.

The truth is, the Reds have to make a thinning payroll budget. Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Bailey have locked most of that up, but you can't make out a lineup card with just them.... and the Fraziers, Mesoracos, Chapmans and Hamiltons salary growth won't leave much room for more than a couple or three mid-salaried ($8-$12Mil/yr) players- they have to fill in most of the roster with discounts-washed up guys and pre-arbitration youngsters well under the $4M MLB average. It's budget math, not pennant math. It's math that will insure Cueto AND Leake leave, and probably Chapman in two years.

When the farm won't support low dollar high talent, they have to settle for low dollar, lower talent guys. If Bailey is going to chase a guy off in three weeks, it makes better financial sense to make your $2M bum earn his cash than release him for a better farmhand that will just reach arbitration salary one year sooner, because NEITHER player is likely to be the difference in making post season THIS YEAR, or not. IMO, that's the tradeoff to signing Gregg, Marquis and Badenhop. They aren't likely to win for you, or win for long, but they may make the accountant happier in 2017, when he's trying to figure out who to get rid of, so they can keep Mesoraco one more year. I think the sad truth is, the better your farm is, the more the roster door has to keep revolving, because you can't afford to keep an entire team of established talent at market rate.

The TRICK is in which ones you decide to keep, and which ones you choose to let go. Unfortunately, it's a little like raising kids- you really don't know if you did a good job, until it's too late.

 

[chico ruiz]

h-n-r, i understand your evaluation of votto hitting behind hamilton in terms of a spray chart to a certain extent. however, there are other factors at work here beyond potential shifts and none of it should hinder hamilton as the season progresses. you write that "the reds lack the protoypical two hole LHB or RHB that has good plate discipline, sprays the ball into the OF, and can handle the bat to take advantage of holes." in a lot of ways, that is actually a very good description of votto. beyond the fact he puts the bat on the ball, his plate discipline is mlb superior (take a look @ votto's plate discipline percentages on fan graphs - they are incredible) and has been the subject of relentless debate for the last 2 years. 'swing at more balls close to the plate -even if they're not strikes - with runners in scoring position,' says marty. pete rose basically says the argument is ridiculous. he's a great hitter - period. leave him alone to do what it is he does, which is great plate discipline, with the ability to hit the ball anywhere on the field. i'm going to side with the all-time mlb hits record holder on this one.

the other thing that votto does is foul off a lot of pitches. a whole lot in fact. billy may have to jog back to first and second a lot this year, but it will be worth it. some starting pitchers will have thrown 30 pitches before they even get to frazier, or whoever is behind votto. that's an advantage for the reds whether they score or not. the earlier the reds get into opposing team's bullpens the better, because -imo- the 2015 reds are going to rake. votto also hits LHP almost as well as he does RHP. and i know we are getting tired of hearing and reading this, but the bottom line is, he gets on base. yes, the bill james money-balled, and maddeningly over analyzed statistical enigma, which sometimes does, and sometimes doesn't, take into account the intangibles of which players are on base, in disparate situations, calculating only the base on balls. crazy kooky stuff. hamilton being forced to second base on a votto walk is a good thing. right? easier to steal 3rd base you say, or at least a higher success rate by the greats. yes. run at will. scratch out every run possible. i think you will see hamilton going first to third on hits to left field more, unless he's not running on the pitch and its a liner directly at the left fielder.

besides all that, votto is capable of extraordinary bat control. there are only a few mlb hitters with his talent. if he doesn't walk, chances are he will hit the ball. meaning also that any fly ball hit remotely deep by votto will allow hamilton to tag from first or second as his reads off the bat improve. votto hits excellent pitches. sliders on the corner. nasty off-speed stuff of all variety. where most K, votto usually will put bat on ball. he's so damn good that i am actually surprised when he strikes out. he's a special talent.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Chico,
You seem to take my comments as a indictment on Votto, it's really more of a indictment against the rest of the roster. Joey Votto is head and shoulders the best hitter on this team. IMO, he's hitting second because the Reds are skipping the two hole which has been a out in recent years and going straight to the 3 hole hitter. But I will agree to disagree that he is a protypical number two guy. Joey is a OBP machine, hits in the clutch, hits for power and strike's out 125+ times a year and is at the top of the opposing pitcher's scouting report. But he will not typically sacrifice a out to advance a runner whether it's a SF, bunt, or hitting behind the runner. He is quoted as saying as much.That's where the rest of the lineup comes into play, the next guy/s need to do their job or the chain is broken.

Hitting Votto second isn't going to hurt this team. Votto will benefit from Hamilton being on second base because it eliminates the shift and should see more fast balls from a distracted hurried pitcher when BH is on first base. Billy will benefit from having a hitter at the plate taking more pitches to get a better read on the pitcher. If Votto is walked because Hamilton steals, it's the next man up's job to keep it rolling. Votto will do his job within his philosophy, the effectiveness of the top of the order will be more dependent on BH and the 3-4 guys doing theirs.

Stat of the day....Votto's career OBP with a 3-2 count is .540 which is amazing.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Votto, when healthy, may be the best Reds overall hitter ever.... At least in the conversation. He strikes out too much, and doesn't hit as many HR as you would think in that park, but those are really digging to find criticism. He hurts the lineup when he isn't there- the biggest criticism I really have for him.

I'm glad to see Hamilton making contact. He's important I think. The defense appears to be excellent- that helps. Leake walking 6 guys is concerning. Fraziers on fire, but Byrd is down, and Mesoraco hasn't done much yet- things will even out over time. They just need to keep finding ways to stay in it, to win the close ones, and stay healthy. It's all you can do.

 

[chico ruiz]

absolutely not h'n'r. you guys (yourself, 1507, johnu) know the 'game.' i really appreciate knowledgable, observant, and perceptive posts from real reds fans. i sometimes think we're more than reds fans actually. i kind of eat, breath, and sleep reds baseball. i was simply pointing out that your description of the prototypical 2-hole hitter sounded a lot like votto, and if any hitter can adapt situationally it's him. nothing more to it. i like reading your posts -1507 & john included - more than listening or reading any pundit that comes to mind. among other things; john's glorious metaphors that rival red barber, your very insightful transactional roster analysis, and 1507's true baseball grit make for great reds baseball reading. 100% better than those two shlubs fay & rosecrans . holy crap, do two more boring beat writers exist in mlb? even daugherty has gotten too condescending. it's like he just discovered the internet. yes paul, there are a lot of blow-hards out there. don't take it so personal. especially you. it's your job, for god sake.

there's no agenda with you guys, other than wanting the reds to win. as far as i can tell, we all come from a deep-seated tradition that i don't ever want to part with. you do have the advantage of seeing more games at GABP (yuh bastards). you actually see runners in motion and get a feel for the game's rhythms that i don't. you guys will see up-close and personal what is working and what is not. watching it in 1080 on a 60" screen still isn't as good as being there. the 2 monstrosities in this town are not ballparks, and any of the seats i would want start around $1000. i'm not joking or exaggerating about that. you don't know how lucky you have it.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Votto distal quad strain and the subsequent lost season has been a bit controversial in a sense that fans question Joey's toughness. I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt when he says he can't play. He played every game available post knee surgery in 2012-13 and acording to statements from Paul Lessard in a 07/2014 John Fay interview the distal tendon in his knee was progressively getting worse.

I don't have anymore information on Joey Votto's health than the average Reds' fan, but I do have a pretty good understanding of the factors in play to form a educated theory.

A "distal quad strain" is most commonly chronic inflammation in the region where the quad muscles come together to form the tendon nearest the knee. It's also fairly common in athletes that have a previous injury in the same region and subsequently over load the tendon during the recovery period which can be up to a year or more. It's not a result of surgery, but can be a down stream result when other factors are in play.

Other factors in play are previous injury, emotional stress, genetics, and both legal prescriptions and illegal supplements. Votto has more than one of these factors in play. From a P.R. standpoint supplement and tendon are the two words that you don't want to be used in the same sentence. Tendinosis in otherwise young healthy modern day athletes can be a red flag indicator of steroid usage, but NSAIDS create the same symptoms with prolonged use. With early reports in ST that he wasn't ready to play made the red flag seem more of a possibility, but now other factors seem more plausible.

The difference in steroids and NSAIDS. Steroids alter the balance of type 1 and type 3 collagen which is essential to tendon repair. Muscles aren't affected by the mutation, but tendons are repaired with a inferior by-product often leading to surgery to remove diseased parts of the tendon. NSAIDS reduce inflammation and pain, but don't promote healing. In fact they inhibit healing by blocking the production of prostaglandins restricting blood flow to the injury.

Votto's treatment protocol was platelet rich plasma injections and rest which would support the NSAIDS theory. PRP injections are produced from the patients own blood which is spun to increase it's growth factors and injected into the injured region to promote healing in areas where blood flow is restricted. It's a controversial treatment that may be banned in the future. If not for it being the patients own blood it would already be illegal in most sports because it's essentially acting as a growth hormone.

Sorry for the medical dissertation, but hopefully it adds a little fabric to the issue.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

To Chico's point on the boring beat writers. The local media tend to softball Price and Jocketty. I guess it's a product of not crapping where you eat. Sometimes as a fan you'd like to hear the answer to the tougher questions.

At Redsfest they have a fan Q&A where a few tough questions get asked to Ownership, GM, and Price. The tension can be felt as they squirm through their answers. The players typically are involved in the kids Q&A and are asked the real tough questions.....what's your favorite color?... seems to be a annual favorite.

 

[JohnU]

Thanks for the insight on the quad problem. I think we all have our maladies and if we were athletes, we'd notice them. But I do know that the word "steroid" often automatically implies "cheating." I use steroids to help me with breathing issues. I would be banned from baseball but it's more fun to breathe.

On the writers: I did that for a living. With ballplayers, the job of the beat writer is to write about the game and how it's played. The players have heard these questions 399,543 times.

There's nothing new. "You went oh-for-the series. Tell me why."

"I fucked up."

Fay and Rosecrans have to keep the door open. Brandon Phillips pissed all over Fay a couple of years ago.

As well, geezers like Hal McCoy can turn a clubhouse comment into a 4-year brawl.

Phillips didn't get plunked by the Pirates because he was beating them. He was plunked because a racist Pittsburgh beat jockey said it needed to be done, even though Phillips hadn't even played the entire series before it happened.

In a sense, it pays for beat writers to lob softballs and sometimes leave in the clubhouse the things that need to be left there. The old days, when I was working the coaches, a lot of what I knew was not shared. It's a whole lot friendlier that way.