Mid-Majors With a Realistic Shot at the 4 Team Play-off for 2014

[Red_Alert]

These are predictions you idiot. Nothing more. Houston plays some teams that will likely be in the top 25. Athlon has Marshall going to the Chick Fil-A Bowl as an at large pick. I'm not going to call them idiots. They are predictions.

My thoughts on Utah are opinions. Therefore you can't say I'm wrong. It's an opinion. What part of that can't you understand.

You can have a "major" upset if you are a big underdog. That can happen. Chill before you bust a gut.

Look up the word "opinion" in google or anyplace.

I looked it up before I cut and pasted the exact definition. Once again for you....

Opinion: A view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge.

Statements such as None, Never, No chance, are based on fact or knowledge.

You have no fact and you have no knowledge because there has never been a play-off, the season has not been played yet, and there is no prior practice to base your knowledge on.

Your definitive comments are made as if you know something when in fact you don't know shit.

 

[Red_Alert]

Since I expect the 4 teams to go to 8 within 3-5 years, I'll state my opinion that it will never happen as long as they remain at 4. At 8 teams, it will happen.

That's exactly what I told you that is bolded. You have no reading comprehension skills whatsoever.

So if

East Carolina ends up 13-0 with a schedule of... @ South Carolina, @ Virginia Tech, North Carolina, @ Cincinnati, UCF. and wins their CCG.

or

Fresno St ends up (13-0) with a schedule of.. @ Southern Cal, @ Utah, Nebraska, @ Boise St, and wins their CCG......

The Play-off committee will absolutely leave them out in favor of 4 (two loss teams) from a P-5 or Notre Dame?

 

[olympicoscar]

Opinion: A view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge.

You are making statements of fact. "No", "Never", "None".

An opinion would be "unlikely", "difficult", etc...

Maybe you'd be better served to look at the final polls for the last 10 years and forget about how things were done in 1960.

2004 - (12-0) Utah #4, (11-1) Boise St #12
2005 - (11-1) TCU #11
2006 - (13-0) Boise St #5 (1 first place vote)
2008 - (13-0) Utah #2 (16 first place votes)...(11-2) TCU #7.
2009 - (14-0) Boise St #4...(12-1) TCU #6...(12-1) Cincinnati #8
2010 - (13-0) TCU #2 (3 first place votes), (12-0) Boise St #9...(13-1) Nevada #11
2011 - (12-1) Boise St #8
2012 - (12-1) UCF #10

Note: An undefeated Mid-major was always Top 5 minimum.

This is the only "official" criteria to be one of the 4 teams selected to the play-off.





"Select the highest-ranked champion from the five conferences without New Year’s bowl contracts" refers to filling in the other New Years Bowls. The "Top four teams" will have already been determined.

Final polls are after the bowl games were played. Selection of teams to play in these games were based on their final BCS ranking which would obviously changed based on a win or loss. Utah was not number 4 or number 2 before they won their bowl game in those seasons. Same with Boise St. None of the teams above would have been invited to a 4 team playoff.

You are badly hung up on semantics and are making a fool of yourself. It's all my opinion and I'm entitled to it and I have no plans to change it.

I am well aware that the other at large teams will be selected after the top 4 teams are selected. Remember this is from a committee and not the AP or Coaches poll. You will be able to see the poll starting sometime in October I believe.

I DO NOT THINK ANY OF THE MID MAJORS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AND THAT IS MY OPINION. I DON'T CARE HOW MANY POSTS YOU MAKE, I'M NOT GOING TO CHANGE MY OPINION.

 

[olympicoscar]

I looked it up before I cut and pasted the exact definition. Once again for you....

Opinion: A view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge.

Statements such as None, Never, No chance, are based on fact or knowledge.

You have no fact and you have no knowledge because there has never been a play-off, the season has not been played yet, and there is no prior practice to base your knowledge on.

Your definitive comments are made as if you know something when in fact you don't know shit.

That's correct. It's an opinion. Do you not understand what an opinion is? It can't be a fact since the games haven't been played yet. I give them no chance to make the playoffs. Let me say that again in case you don't understand, I give them no chance to make the playoffs. Do you understand?

 

[olympicoscar]

So if

East Carolina ends up 13-0 with a schedule of... @ South Carolina, @ Virginia Tech, North Carolina, @ Cincinnati, UCF. and wins their CCG.

or

Fresno St ends up (13-0) with a schedule of.. @ Southern Cal, @ Utah, Nebraska, @ Boise St, and wins their CCG......

The Play-off committee will absolutely leave them out in favor of 4 (two loss teams) from a P-5 or Notre Dame?

In my opinion yes. They will be considered but not chosen. You honestly expect the playoff will be 4, two loss teams?

I only see Marshall or Houston with a chance to run the table, and I can't see either being picked.

IN MY OPINION.

 

[Red_Alert]

In my opinion yes. They will be considered but not chosen. You honestly expect the playoff will be 4, two loss teams?

I only see Marshall or Houston with a chance to run the table, and I can't see either being picked.

IN MY OPINION.

Why would they be considered if there's no possibility of choosing them. Wouldn't they be left out of the pool to begin with?

It is possible for all P-5 teams to have at least 2 losses on selection day. In that scenario I believe an undefeated mid-major who's beaten at least 2 P-5 teams and won their CCG would likely get in.

 

[Red_Alert]

Final polls are after the bowl games were played. Selection of teams to play in these games were based on their final BCS ranking which would obviously changed based on a win or loss. Utah was not number 4 or number 2 before they won their bowl game in those seasons. Same with Boise St. None of the teams above would have been invited to a 4 team playoff.

You are badly hung up on semantics and are making a fool of yourself. It's all my opinion and I'm entitled to it and I have no plans to change it.

I am well aware that the other at large teams will be selected after the top 4 teams are selected. Remember this is from a committee and not the AP or Coaches poll. You will be able to see the poll starting sometime in October I believe.

I DO NOT THINK ANY OF THE MID MAJORS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AND THAT IS MY OPINION. I DON'T CARE HOW MANY POSTS YOU MAKE, I'M NOT GOING TO CHANGE MY OPINION.

None of the teams above would have been invited to a 4 team playoff

Once again, you do not know that, because there was not a 4 team play-off. They could only take #1 and #2 based solely on polls prior to this season.

I DO NOT THINK ANY OF THE MID MAJORS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

That's better. It sounds more like an opinion now, as opposed to these statements made to indicate fact.

"None of these teams will be selected by the committee"
"there will be no mid majors in the 4 team playoff"
"no mid major will be in the top 4"
"it will never happen as long as they remain at 4"
"None of the teams above would have been invited to a 4 team playoff"

This isn't 1960, Oscar.

 

[GoldRusher]

For anyone who doesn't think a mid-major can get into the play-off..

2. Give me the criteria of selecting the Top 4 teams by the Play-off Committee.

conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparing common opponents and injuries.

 

[Red_Alert]

conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparing common opponents and injuries.

Why did you leave off the first one?

"Win/Loss Records"

 

[GoldRusher]

Why did you leave off the first one?

"Win/Loss Records"

because the wins wont matter if they are not against P5 teams.

 

[Red_Alert]

because the wins wont matter if they are not against P5 teams.

I made it clear in the OP that the teams would have to be undefeated. There are only two teams on my list that don't play P-5 teams. Most play 2, some even play 3.

Therefore there could be wins against P5 teams by everybody but Marshall and Houston.

 

[Red_Alert]

According to Sagarin, BYU had a equivalent or tougher Schedule Strength and Rank as......

..........................Sched Strength...Sched Rank

1. Florida St (13-0).........69.16........(62)
3. Alabama (11-1).........73.42.........(39)
4. Michigan St (12-1)......70.89.........(51)
6. Baylor (11-1).............71.61.........(48)
7. Ohio St (12-1)...........70.17..........(58)

BYU.............................73.54..........(38)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Auburn (12-1)............77.25..........(13)
5. Stanford (11-2)..........80.73...........(1)
8. Missouri (11-2)..........75.65............(24)
9. S. Carolina (10-2)......76.24............(20)
10. Oregon (10-2).........74.90.............(29)
11. Oklahoma (10-2).....74.73.............(32)

Had better higher schedule strength schedule rank than BYU

Team rankings were the BCS Standings used to establish the NCG.

The Higher the Schedule Strength the tougher the schedule. The lower the schedule Rank the tougher the schedule.

To think that a mid-major is automatically going to have a weaker Strength of Schedule is obviously wrong.
Win/Loss record is likely going to be first criteria when selecting teams and when comparing schedule strength there will likely need to be an egregious difference for a 1 or 2 loss team to overtake an undefeated team.

 

[olympicoscar]

Why would they be considered if there's no possibility of choosing them. Wouldn't they be left out of the pool to begin with?

It is possible for all P-5 teams to have at least 2 losses on selection day. In that scenario I believe an undefeated mid-major who's beaten at least 2 P-5 teams and won their CCG would likely get in.

Everyone is considered fairly. I would expect nothing less. It is possible for all of the majors to have 2 losses. However, I have racked my brain to think of just one time that has happened in my entire life, and the best I can come up with is 1990, when Colorado won the nc with 1 loss and 1 tie. Maybe I'm wrong, but can you come up with a year where there were no undefeated teams AND no 1 loss teams?

 

[olympicoscar]

Once again, you do not know that, because there was not a 4 team play-off. They could only take #1 and #2 based solely on polls prior to this season.



That's better. It sounds more like an opinion now, as opposed to these statements made to indicate fact.

"None of these teams will be selected by the committee"
"there will be no mid majors in the 4 team playoff"
"no mid major will be in the top 4"
"it will never happen as long as they remain at 4"
"None of the teams above would have been invited to a 4 team playoff"

This isn't 1960, Oscar.

I have no idea what 1960 has to do with anything. I stand by my opinion. Everybody makes opinions on these forums based on what they think will happen. Example: My team will go at least 10-2 this year. No worse, I guarantee it.

Do you bother to attack them also? All of these remarks about the future are always opinions. Opinions are often based on things that have happened in the past. Keep that in mind.

 

[olympicoscar]

Why did you leave off the first one?

"Win/Loss Records"

Does he get the death penalty?

 

[Red_Alert]

Everyone is considered fairly. I would expect nothing less. It is possible for all of the majors to have 2 losses. However, I have racked my brain to think of just one time that has happened in my entire life, and the best I can come up with is 1990, when Colorado won the nc with 1 loss and 1 tie. Maybe I'm wrong, but can you come up with a year where there were no undefeated teams AND no 1 loss teams?

No undefeated teams yeah. For 2 loss teams (in modern times) 2007 would be the closest.

Once the regular season and CCG's were played (i.e. NC and bowl selection time) the Top 10 looked like this. I just used the BCS poll but the AP and Coaches were similar. There were no P5's undefeated and of the Top 7 only Ohio St had less than 2 losses. The Big 10 did not play a CCG at that time. Ohio St's loss was to Illinois.

#1 Ohio St (12-1)
#2. LSU (11-2)
#3. Va Tech (11-2)
#4. Oklahoma (11-2)
#5. Georgia (10-2)
#6. Missouri (11-2)
#7. Southern Cal (10-2)
#8. Kansas (11-1) Lost to Missouri on Nov 24th.
#9. W. Virginia (10-2)
#10. Hawaii (12-0) Only P5 win was (4-8) Washington on Dec 1st.

No. I would not have put Kansas or Hawaii into a 4 team play-off.

Kansas OOC - Central Michigan, S.E. Louisiana, Toledo, FIU. Did not play Texas or Oklahoma. Nebraska went (5-7).

 

[Red_Alert]

I have no idea what 1960 has to do with anything. I stand by my opinion. Everybody makes opinions on these forums based on what they think will happen. Example: My team will go at least 10-2 this year. No worse, I guarantee it.

Do you bother to attack them also? All of these remarks about the future are always opinions. Opinions are often based on things that have happened in the past. Keep that in mind.

You sound ridiculous. Of course no one can do that. I'm just saying that no mid major will be in the top 4. As to who will, of course I can't tell you.

This is my opinion based on observing the rankings of teams over the last 60 years. Repeat for the slow learners, it's an opinion.

It was just an arbitrary number based on your previous statement of rankings expertise. I guess I could have said 1954 to be exact.

 

[Red_Alert]

Does he get the death penalty?

No. He just needed correction is all.

So, do you disagree Win/Loss record will likely be the 'first' criteria for a committee member when determining their pool of 25 teams? That it will be given the most weight? That an undefeated team (regardless of conference) would likely be included that pool?

They won't be ranking them #1, #2, #3, etc..., just creating a pool of 25 to be combined with other committee members pool of 25.

Do you disagree that strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results, and results against common opponents will come secondary to Win/Loss record when determining their pool of 25?

Tap into your vast 60 years of college football rankings knowledge before answering.

 

[olympicoscar]

No. He just needed correction is all.

So, do you disagree Win/Loss record will likely be the 'first' criteria for a committee member when determining their pool of 25 teams? That it will be given the most weight? That an undefeated team (regardless of conference) would likely be included that pool?

They won't be ranking them #1, #2, #3, etc..., just creating a pool of 25 to be combined with other committee members pool of 25.

Do you disagree that strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results, and results against common opponents will come secondary to Win/Loss record when determining their pool of 25?

Tap into your vast 60 years of college football rankings knowledge before answering.

Only among the majors will won/loss record be given the most consideration. It will be combined with strength of schedule and conference titles. In other words, it will be a sort of prism. Weight may vary among different committee members.

College football rankings have usually been dominated by won loss rankings. Certainly undefeated major conference winners will be a lock. The most I can see occurring is 3 and 1 or 2 is the most likely. If we have 3 undefeated teams, the 4th team will likely be a conference champion with the toughest strength of schedule. There will be a lot of ways for the committee to pick a team.

In conclusion, we will have lots of controversy in some years and very little in others. The lots of controversy will be favored by people like you that love to start fights.

 

[Red_Alert]

Only among the majors will won/loss record be given the most consideration. It will be combined with strength of schedule and conference titles. In other words, it will be a sort of prism. Weight may vary among different committee members.

College football rankings have usually been dominated by won loss rankings. Certainly undefeated major conference winners will be a lock. The most I can see occurring is 3 and 1 or 2 is the most likely. If we have 3 undefeated teams, the 4th team will likely be a conference champion with the toughest strength of schedule. There will be a lot of ways for the committee to pick a team.

In conclusion, we will have lots of controversy in some years and very little in others. The lots of controversy will be favored by people like you that love to start fights.

Only among the majors will won/loss record be given the most consideration

Once again you fail. Win/Loss record "WILL" be considered for all FBS teams in determining an individuals pool of 25. It's part of the criteria. I've read it and I can say with certainty that nowhere did it say "Only among the majors".

Certainly undefeated major conference winners will be a lock

No shit?

Those 60 years of college football rankings expertise have served you well. Can you tell us something an adept 10 year old can't figure out on their own?

people like you that love to start fights

Poor Oscar.