Mid-Majors With a Realistic Shot at the 4 Team Play-off for 2014

[Codaxx]

I have BYU with a real shot. They always seem to be around 20-30 range. OOC has Texas, Virginia, and Cal. All will be beatable (insert last year's Texas beat down joke here). Lots of grown men on this team. I don't think they are anywhere near a top 10 team, but being top 20 wouldn't surprise many. A top 20 team could roll through that schedule. They don't have the speed to do much in a playoff, but they are always tough under Bronco and force teams to beat them.

 

[Red_Alert]

None of these teams will be selected by the committee. Even if they run the table.

What is realistic, is a chance at a major bowl game. Central Florida, Houston, and Cincinnati have a chance. Marshall, Bowling Green and Boise State are the others. Each will likely have to pull a major upset. Best chance in my opinion is Houston and Marshall.

There is so much fail in that post, I'm going to have to address it in 2 parts.

None of these teams will be selected by the committee. Even if they run the table

What is the criteria to get into this 4 team play-off?
Answer: You don't know.

What are the odds of there being 4 undefeated majors when the play-off teams are being selected?
Answer: Slim to none

How many 1 loss majors will there be when the committee selects the 4 play-off teams?
Answer: You don't know.

You're saying East Carolina wouldn't get selected if they run the table (13-0)?
Schedule: @ South Carolina, @ Virginia Tech, North Carolina, @ Cincinnati, UCF. CCG.

You're saying Fresno St wouldn't get selected if they run the table (13-0)?
Schedule: @ Southern Cal, @ Utah, Nebraska, @ Boise St, CCG.

What is realistic, is a chance at a major bowl game. Central Florida, Houston, and Cincinnati have a chance. Marshall, Bowling Green and Boise State are the others. Each will likely have to pull a major upset. Best chance in my opinion is Houston and Marshall

LMAO!!! This completes your fail.

Houston and Marshall are the ONLY two teams that DON"T play a Major (it's in my OP).

How can they "Pull a major upset" if they don't play anyone that could be considered a major upset?

You didn't put an ounce of thought into your post did you?

 

[Red_Alert]

It wouldn't shock me for Northern Illinois to win both of those OOC games. Pat Fitzgerald would throw a fit.

I just saw on BTN that Venric Mark won't be playing in that game.

Northwestern Wildcats suspend Venric Mark for first two games of the season - ESPN

 

[olympicoscar]

There is so much fail in that post, I'm going to have to address it in 2 parts.




What is the criteria to get into this 4 team play-off?
Answer: You don't know.

What are the odds of there being 4 undefeated majors when the play-off teams are being selected?
Answer: Slim to none

How many 1 loss majors will there be when the committee selects the 4 play-off teams?
Answer: You don't know.

You're saying East Carolina wouldn't get selected if they run the table (13-0)?
Schedule: @ South Carolina, @ Virginia Tech, North Carolina, @ Cincinnati, UCF. CCG.

You're saying Fresno St wouldn't get selected if they run the table (13-0)?
Schedule: @ Southern Cal, @ Utah, Nebraska, @ Boise St, CCG.




LMAO!!! This completes your fail.

Houston and Marshall are the ONLY two teams that DON"T play a Major (it's in my OP).

How can they "Pull a major upset" if they don't play anyone that could be considered a major upset?

You didn't put an ounce of thought into your post did you?

Reading comprehension is apparently not your strong suit.

Yes, there will be no mid majors in the 4 team playoff. A few years ago Utah was undefeated and I believe beat Alabama in a major bowl. If it was a 4 team playoff, they wouldn't have gotten in. No way the committee would select them based on strength of schedule. Same thing will happen again. A one loss conference champion from the 5 majors will easily surpass them. Even some 2 loss teams will be considered ahead of them.

The criteria for getting into the 4 team playoffs is stacked against any mid major. SOS will kill any one of them.

Odds of 4 undefeated majors, slim, but so what. A one loss team will be selected ahead of them. If a 4 team playoff existed last year and Louisville had been 12-0 and Alabama was out there with an 11-1 record, we all know who would have been selected, and rightly so. So would Michigan State, Auburn and Florida St. Louisville's 12-0 would not have gotten them in.

East Carolina and Fresno State will suffer the same consequences if they're 12-0. Too many one loss teams from power conferences.

Houston and Marshall will likely play a top 25 team because the pre-season rankings, as always, will not remain the same as the season progresses. So they will have to upset a favored team to run the table.

A 12-0 mid major has a chance to make one of the 6 major bowls. But not the 4 team playoff.

Your serve.

 

[theSabanator20]

Nevada should be on this list... I think if I saw it right, they have 21 starters coming back. They have a couple of P5 teams on the schedule as well that I think are very winnable for them.

 

[GoldRusher]

Not gonna happen no matter the record IMO. I don't mean to sound snotty but CFB didn't implement this system to get any more NIU's or UCF's into the big game. I'm not saying its great, just saying its reality.

 

[Red_Alert]

Reading comprehension is apparently not your strong suit.

Yes, there will be no mid majors in the 4 team playoff. A few years ago Utah was undefeated and I believe beat Alabama in a major bowl. If it was a 4 team playoff, they wouldn't have gotten in. No way the committee would select them based on strength of schedule. Same thing will happen again. A one loss conference champion from the 5 majors will easily surpass them. Even some 2 loss teams will be considered ahead of them.

The criteria for getting into the 4 team playoffs is stacked against any mid major. SOS will kill any one of them.

Odds of 4 undefeated majors, slim, but so what. A one loss team will be selected ahead of them. If a 4 team playoff existed last year and Louisville had been 12-0 and Alabama was out there with an 11-1 record, we all know who would have been selected, and rightly so. So would Michigan State, Auburn and Florida St. Louisville's 12-0 would not have gotten them in.

East Carolina and Fresno State will suffer the same consequences if they're 12-0. Too many one loss teams from power conferences.

Houston and Marshall will likely play a top 25 team because the pre-season rankings, as always, will not remain the same as the season progresses. So they will have to upset a favored team to run the table.

A 12-0 mid major has a chance to make one of the 6 major bowls. But not the 4 team playoff.

Your serve.

You are a flaming knucklehead.

You can't definitively say Utah "wouldn't have gotten in" because the 4 team play-off didn't exist in 2008, did it.
They had wins against two Majors, Oregon St and Michigan. They also had wins over two good mid-majors in (10-2) TCU, and (10-2) BYU. TCU had a win over a Major and a loss to #2 Oklahoma. BYU had wins over 2 Majors (Washington/Stanford).

That Utah (12-0) was given a chance to play (12-1) Alabama in the Sugar Bowl should tell you they'd have been 'considered' for a 4 team play-off.

You don't know what the criteria for the play-off committee will be. So stop acting like you do.
You don't know how many undefeated or one loss Major teams there will be. So stop acting like you do.

Houston and Marshall do not play a Major (P5 or Notre Dame) team. Therefore any win will not be considered a "Major Upset". You fail.

 

[Red_Alert]

The BCS rule of mandatorily matching #1 vs #2 is gone.

Deal with it and get it out of your head.

 

[Red_Alert]

For anyone who doesn't think a mid-major can get into the play-off..

1. Give me the exact Top 10 order as of December 10th 2014 and what each teams exact record will be.
2. Give me the criteria of selecting the Top 4 teams by the Play-off Committee.

If you can not do that, then you probably need to STFU.

 

[olympicoscar]

You are a flaming knucklehead.

You can't definitively say Utah "wouldn't have gotten in" because the 4 team play-off didn't exist in 2008, did it.
They had wins against two Majors, Oregon St and Michigan. They also had wins over two good mid-majors in (10-2) TCU, and (10-2) BYU. TCU had a win over a Major and a loss to #2 Oklahoma. BYU had wins over 2 Majors (Washington/Stanford).

That Utah (12-0) was given a chance to play (12-1) Alabama in the Sugar Bowl should tell you they'd have been 'considered' for a 4 team play-off.

You don't know what the criteria for the play-off committee will be. So stop acting like you do.
You don't know how many undefeated or one loss Major teams there will be. So stop acting like you do.

Houston and Marshall do not play a Major (P5 or Notre Dame) team. Therefore any win will not be considered a "Major Upset". You fail.

Definitively Utah not getting in, no. But you can't say they would have. Would they have gotten in last year? No. Who would they knock out? Michigan St, or Alabama. I don't think so? Keep in mind there are no definitive answers since this system is new, so don't get your panties in a wad. It's all opinions.

Utah would have been considered, but would not have gotten in.

I am aware of the criteria for getting in, so stop with the claims that I don't know. No of course I don't know how many undefeated teams there will be. Maybe 1. Maybe a mid major. I have no doubt the mid-major will not get in. With only 4 teams, slots will be reserved for teams that have won their conferences or rate higher in the categories that the committee is looking for. Strength of schedule being one of these. Head to head meetings and injuries are other factors in addition to conference championships. If everybody last year had one loss and Louisville was undefeated they would not get a berth.

They would of course make the 12 field for a major bowl game.

Houston and Marshall will indeed play a major game this year. We just don't know who it will be against. At some point in the season they will play a top 25 team. As I said before, the pre-season ratings, like always, will not hold up.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Well I have Houston or Marshall with the best shot at going unbeaten. Houston has a good shot at going unbeaten if they get by BYU early in the year and Marshall SHOULD go unbeaten. Not sure either team would make the playoff even if they did go unscathed though

This.

Things set up real well for Houston to make a good run this year.

 

[olympicoscar]

The BCS rule of mandatorily matching #1 vs #2 is gone.

Deal with it and get it out of your head.

It's 1 verses 4 and 2 versus 3. Who said anything about the old BCS rating system? Again, reading comprehension.

Actually it's very uncomplicated and I don't understand all the analysis over who is on the committee. In the end they likely will get it right and the sun will continue to rise and the earth will continue to rotate on it's axis.

 

[olympicoscar]

For anyone who doesn't think a mid-major can get into the play-off..

1. Give me the exact Top 10 order as of December 10th 2014 and what each teams exact record will be.
2. Give me the criteria of selecting the Top 4 teams by the Play-off Committee.

If you can not do that, then you probably need to STFU.

You sound ridiculous. Of course no one can do that. I'm just saying that no mid major will be in the top 4. As to who will, of course I can't tell you.

This is my opinion based on observing the rankings of teams over the last 60 years. Repeat for the slow learners, it's an opinion.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Houston only has a shot if Cincinnati, ECU and UCF all make noise OOC

 

[olympicoscar]

Houston only has a shot if Cincinnati, ECU and UCF all make noise OOC

That is true.

 

[Red_Alert]

Definitively Utah not getting in, no. But you can't say they would have. Would they have gotten in last year? No. Who would they knock out? Michigan St, or Alabama. I don't think so? Keep in mind there are no definitive answers since this system is new, so don't get your panties in a wad. It's all opinions.

Utah would have been considered, but would not have gotten in.

I am aware of the criteria for getting in, so stop with the claims that I don't know. No of course I don't know how many undefeated teams there will be. Maybe 1. Maybe a mid major. I have no doubt the mid-major will not get in. With only 4 teams, slots will be reserved for teams that have won their conferences or rate higher in the categories that the committee is looking for. Strength of schedule being one of these. Head to head meetings and injuries are other factors in addition to conference championships. If everybody last year had one loss and Louisville was undefeated they would not get a berth.

They would of course make the 12 field for a major bowl game.

Houston and Marshall will indeed play a major game this year. We just don't know who it will be against. At some point in the season they will play a top 25 team. As I said before, the pre-season ratings, like always, will not hold up.

Definitively Utah not getting in, no. But you can't say they would have.

I'm not stupid enough to make a definitive statement like that.

Keep in mind there are no definitive answers since this system is new, so don't get your panties in a wad. It's all opinions

You then turn right around in the next sentence with a definitive answer and say....

Utah would have been considered, but would not have gotten in

More definitive answers...

None of these teams will be selected by the committee. Even if they run the table.

there will be no mid majors in the 4 team playoff.

East Carolina and Fresno State will suffer the same consequences if they're 12-0. Too many one loss teams from power conferences.

A 12-0 mid major has a chance to make one of the 6 major bowls. But not the 4 team playoff.

Houston and Marshall will NOT play a P5 or Notre Dame opponent this year. Those are 'Majors'. Therefore Houston and Marshall cannot have a "Major Upset" this year. Their SOS will suck ass.


Only a bloviating idiot that want's to give the impression they know something others don't would make statements such as "No", Never", Not gonna happen" etc..

It's no different than OD claiming blow-out wins over Stanford and Nattys on Platters in August.

 

[Red_Alert]

It's 1 verses 4 and 2 versus 3. Who said anything about the old BCS rating system? Again, reading comprehension.

Actually it's very uncomplicated and I don't understand all the analysis over who is on the committee. In the end they likely will get it right and the sun will continue to rise and the earth will continue to rotate on it's axis.

"It's 1 verses 4 and 2 versus 3".

No shit Sherlock.

1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 as done "by committee". Not mandatory #1 vs #2 as done by polls (human and computer) like the BCS system.

See the difference now?

The chances of a mid-major playing for the NC in the old BCS mandatory #1 vs #2 system were slim. Now there are 2 more slots.

Only a complete fucking moron would definitively say a mid-major will never, ever, ever, ever, ever ,ever be one of those 4 teams.

 

[Red_Alert]

You sound ridiculous. Of course no one can do that. I'm just saying that no mid major will be in the top 4. As to who will, of course I can't tell you.

This is my opinion based on observing the rankings of teams over the last 60 years. Repeat for the slow learners, it's an opinion.

Opinion: A view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge.

You are making statements of fact. "No", "Never", "None".

An opinion would be "unlikely", "difficult", etc...

Maybe you'd be better served to look at the final polls for the last 10 years and forget about how things were done in 1960.

2004 - (12-0) Utah #4, (11-1) Boise St #12
2005 - (11-1) TCU #11
2006 - (13-0) Boise St #5 (1 first place vote)
2008 - (13-0) Utah #2 (16 first place votes)...(11-2) TCU #7.
2009 - (14-0) Boise St #4...(12-1) TCU #6...(12-1) Cincinnati #8
2010 - (13-0) TCU #2 (3 first place votes), (12-0) Boise St #9...(13-1) Nevada #11
2011 - (12-1) Boise St #8
2012 - (12-1) UCF #10

Note: An undefeated Mid-major was always Top 5 minimum.

This is the only "official" criteria to be one of the 4 teams selected to the play-off.

The Best Four Teams

The selection committee will choose the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-head results, comparison of results against common opponents, championships won and other factors.

Selection Committee Responsibilities
•Select the top four teams for the playoff, rank them and assign them to semifinal sites.
•Rank the next group of teams to play in other New Year’s bowls if berth are available.
•Select the highest-ranked champion from the five conferences without New Year’s bowl contracts.
•Assign teams to New Year’s bowls ◦Create competitive matchups
◦Attempt to avoid rematches of regular-season games and repeat appearances
◦Consider geography

"Select the highest-ranked champion from the five conferences without New Year’s bowl contracts" refers to filling in the other New Years Bowls. The "Top four teams" will have already been determined.

 

[olympicoscar]

I'm not stupid enough to make a definitive statement like that.



You then turn right around in the next sentence with a definitive answer and say....



More definitive answers...






Houston and Marshall will NOT play a P5 or Notre Dame opponent this year. Those are 'Majors'. Therefore Houston and Marshall cannot have a "Major Upset" this year. Their SOS will suck ass.


Only a bloviating idiot that want's to give the impression they know something others don't would make statements such as "No", Never", Not gonna happen" etc..

It's no different than OD claiming blow-out wins over Stanford and Nattys on Platters in August.

These are predictions you idiot. Nothing more. Houston plays some teams that will likely be in the top 25. Athlon has Marshall going to the Chick Fil-A Bowl as an at large pick. I'm not going to call them idiots. They are predictions.

My thoughts on Utah are opinions. Therefore you can't say I'm wrong. It's an opinion. What part of that can't you understand.

You can have a "major" upset if you are a big underdog. That can happen. Chill before you bust a gut.

Look up the word "opinion" in google or anyplace.

 

[olympicoscar]

No shit Sherlock.

1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 as done "by committee". Not mandatory #1 vs #2 as done by polls (human and computer) like the BCS system. See the difference now?

The chances of a mid-major playing for the NC in the old BCS mandatory #1 vs #2 system were slim. Now there are 2 more slots.

Only a complete fucking moron would definitively say a mid-major will never, ever, ever, ever, ever ,ever be one of those 4 teams.

Since I expect the 4 teams to go to 8 within 3-5 years, I'll state my opinion that it will never happen as long as they remain at 4. At 8 teams, it will happen.

That's exactly what I told you that is bolded. You have no reading comprehension skills whatsoever.