Mid-Majors With a Realistic Shot at the 4 Team Play-off for 2014

[Red_Alert]

By realistic, I mean they'll have to be undefeated.
There's usually 1 or 2 that make the run for respectability. Generally that team is heavy on upper-classmen.
I only provided options where the teams had at least 8 wins in 2013 and the Majors they'll play this season..

Independents

BYU (8-5) - @ Texas, Virginia, @ California
Navy (8-5) - Ohio St, Rutgers, Notre Dame

American Athletic (ACC)

UCF (12-1) - Penn St, @ Missouri,
East Carolina (10-3) - @ South Carolina, @ Virginia Tech, North Carolina
Cincinnati (9-4) - @ Ohio St, @ Miami
Houston (8-5) - No games against Majors

Conference USA (CUSA)

Rice (10-4) - @ Notre Dame, @ Texas A&M,
Marshall (10-4) - No games against Majors
North Texas (9-4) - @ Texas, @ Indiana
Western Kentucky (8-5) - @ Illinois
Middle Tennessee (8-5) - @ Minnesota
Old Dominion (8-4) - @ N.C. State,

Mid-American (MAC)

Northern Illinois (12-2) - @ Northwestern, @ Arkansas
Ball St (10-3) - @ Iowa
Bowling Green (10-4) - Indiana, @ Wisconsin
Buffalo (8-5) - Baylor

Mountain West (MWC)

Fresno St (11-2) - @ Southern Cal, @ Utah, Nebraska
Utah St (9-5) - @ Tennessee, Wake Forest
Boise St (8-5) - Ole Miss (Atlanta)
San Diego St (8-5) - @ North Carolina, @ Oregon St
Colorado St (8-6) - Colorado, @ Boston College

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette (9-4) - @ Ole Miss
Arkansas St (8-5) - @ Tennessee, @ Miami

 

[WhiteMamba]

Fresno has the best chance. Still would not call it realistic

 

[Grue]

A good friend of mine is a sportswriter and he specializes in the mid-major niche. You may enjoy reading his breakdown here:

College Football Playoff: 2014 Preseason Mid-Major Power Rankings | Respect the Crown | Sports Unbiased

UCF might be the best team, coming off a BCS appearance but they have it really tough coming out of the gate with Penn State and Missouri. Win those, and it could be smooth sailing. Losing Blake Bortles is huge, tho.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

I'd put UTSA in his category. They only won 7 games last season, but its their 4th season playing football, returning 21 starters. They play Arizona and Okie light, the Arizona game is at home.

 

[Red_Alert]

Fresno has the best chance. Still would not call it realistic

Yeah, that's a tough stretch for Fresno St. Those games are in a row.

 

[Red_Alert]

A good friend of mine is a sportswriter and he specializes in the mid-major niche. You may enjoy reading his breakdown here:

College Football Playoff: 2014 Preseason Mid-Major Power Rankings | Respect the Crown | Sports Unbiased

UCF might be the best team, coming off a BCS appearance but they have it really tough coming out of the gate with Penn State and Missouri. Win those, and it could be smooth sailing. Losing Blake Bortles is huge, tho.

UCF also lost their leading rusher and WR too, right?

 

[rmilia1]

Well I have Houston or Marshall with the best shot at going unbeaten. Houston has a good shot at going unbeaten if they get by BYU early in the year and Marshall SHOULD go unbeaten. Not sure either team would make the playoff even if they did go unscathed though

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I can tell you two teams that WON'T be undefeated:

East Carolina
Buffalo.

 

[Grue]

UCF also lost their leading rusher and WR too, right?

Leading rusher, yes. He was good. The WR corp was deep and I don't think they are too worried about that. Almost the entire defense is back.

 

[Red_Alert]

Leading rusher, yes. He was good. The WR corp was deep and I don't think they are too worried about that. Almost the entire defense is back.

UCF was good up front on both sides of the ball. If they can find some skill players to fill shoes, there may not be much drop off.

 

[Red_Alert]

Well I have Houston or Marshall with the best shot at going unbeaten. Houston has a good shot at going unbeaten if they get by BYU early in the year and Marshall SHOULD go unbeaten. Not sure either team would make the playoff even if they did go unscathed though

Yeah. They don't stand a chance without at least beating a middle of the road Major.

 

[rmilia1]

Yeah. They don't stand a chance without at least beating a middle of the road Major.

Their only real shot is if we get a year like 07 where all the major conference teams have 2 losses.

 

[BigRedMoe]

Fresno has the best chance. Still would not call it realistic

Yeah, that's a tough stretch for Fresno St. Those games are in a row.

And Carr graduated. Otherwise, my $$$ would be on them even with the schedule.

Hows about Northern Illinois? Lynch graduated.

UCF? Bortles graduated.

Was this a trick question?

 

[Grue]

Yeah. They don't stand a chance without at least beating a middle of the road Major.

It wouldn't shock me for Northern Illinois to win both of those OOC games. Pat Fitzgerald would throw a fit.

 

[Red_Alert]

And Carr graduated. Otherwise, my $$$ would be on them even with the schedule.

Hows about Northern Illinois? Lynch graduated.

UCF? Bortles graduated.

Was this a trick question?

Ball St, but Keith Wenning graduated.

Like I said, upperclassmen are what takes these mid-majors to the next level.

 

[TigerBait1971]

Good gawd, I hope ULL beats Ole Miss.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

As crazy as it sounds the best realistic shot is with Louisiana-Lafayette I think, they could manage to upset both Ole Miss and Boise State.

Their only real shot is if we get a year like 07 where all the major conference teams have 2 losses.

This would have to happen though for them to make the playoff

Marshall has absolutely no shot

their schedule is worse than Hawai'i had in 2007, and Hawai'i wouldn't have made the playoff that year.

 

[KnightAndDay]

UCF also lost their leading rusher and WR too, right?

Leading rusher, yes

The WR you're talking about was our slot guy Jeff Godfrey who never really had a big impact on our passing offense last year.

 

[olympicoscar]

By realistic, I mean they'll have to be undefeated.
There's usually 1 or 2 that make the run for respectability. Generally that team is heavy on upper-classmen.
I only provided options where the teams had at least 8 wins in 2013 and the Majors they'll play this season..

Independents

BYU (8-5) - @ Texas, Virginia, @ California
Navy (8-5) - Ohio St, Rutgers, Notre Dame

American Athletic (ACC)

UCF (12-1) - Penn St, @ Missouri,
East Carolina (10-3) - @ South Carolina, @ Virginia Tech, North Carolina
Cincinnati (9-4) - @ Ohio St, @ Miami
Houston (8-5) - No games against Majors

Conference USA (CUSA)

Rice (10-4) - @ Notre Dame, @ Texas A&M,
Marshall (10-4) - No games against Majors
North Texas (9-4) - @ Texas, @ Indiana
Western Kentucky (8-5) - @ Illinois
Middle Tennessee (8-5) - @ Minnesota
Old Dominion (8-4) - @ N.C. State,

Mid-American (MAC)

Northern Illinois (12-2) - @ Northwestern, @ Arkansas
Ball St (10-3) - @ Iowa
Bowling Green (10-4) - Indiana, @ Wisconsin
Buffalo (8-5) - Baylor

Mountain West (MWC)

Fresno St (11-2) - @ Southern Cal, @ Utah, Nebraska
Utah St (9-5) - @ Tennessee, Wake Forest
Boise St (8-5) - Ole Miss (Atlanta)
San Diego St (8-5) - @ North Carolina, @ Oregon St
Colorado St (8-6) - Colorado, @ Boston College

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette (9-4) - @ Ole Miss
Arkansas St (8-5) - @ Tennessee, @ Miami

None of these teams will be selected by the committee. Even if they run the table.

What is realistic, is a chance at a major bowl game. Central Florida, Houston, and Cincinnati have a chance. Marshall, Bowling Green and Boise State are the others. Each will likely have to pull a major upset. Best chance in my opinion is Houston and Marshall.

 

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

UCF - Former AQ school. Played extremely well in their last two bowl games. Penn State and Missouri are seen as two credible AQ opponents.

Cincinnati - Former AQ school. Plays two credible AQ opponents with a solid reputation.

Fresno State - Three AQ opponents. 2/3 went to bowl games in 2013 and were ranked. Run the table, and it would be criminal if they got left out.