Mariners failed prospects

[seahawksfan234]

For fun I decided to look up baseball America's top 20 prospects in 2010. Pretty interesting looking back. Especially considering a number of Mariners players are on this list.

I underlined each player's career WAR and put each Mariners player in bold and capital letters. I didn't only list the Mariners players because I wanted to be able to compare our guys to the others in the top 20.

1. Jason Heyward: 20.1 WAR in so far in his 5 major league seasons.

2. Stephen Strasburg: Been injured a lot, but when he is out there he has been extremely impressive. 3.42 ERA in 11 starts in 2014. Career 3.03 ERA in 86 starts. Career 10.5 SO/9IP. Career 9.1 WAR in 5 seasons.

3. Giancarlo Stanton: This year has 15 HRs 49 RBIs .318 BA .413 OBP .621 SLG, at his current pace would finish the season with 48 HRs 153 RBI. Having an MVP caliber season so far. 18.5 WAR in 5 seasons.

4. JESUS MONTERO: The steaming pile of feces in the Baseball America top 5 for 2010. Career WAR of 0.3. Has not played in the major leagues in over a year and is currently sporting a .258 BA in AAA Tacoma.

5. Brian Matusz: Another bust here, but not nearly as bad as Montero. After having some ups and downs as a starting pitcher has been converted into a reliable bullpen arm. Career 2.5 WAR.

6. Desmond Jennings: 10.1 WAR. Has missed considerable time over the past few years, but still has pretty positive WAR numbers.

7. Buster Posey: 2010 ROY, 2012 MVP. 19.0 WAR. Posey has been a great player on 2 World Series winning teams, not much more you can say than that.

8. Pedro Alverez: Made the All-Star game last year. Certainly has a lot of power, but does so with a low BA and OBP. Currently has 10 HR already. 5.6 WAR.

9. Neftali Feliz: 2010 All-Star and AL ROY. Has not pitched in 2014 and threw only 4.2 innings in 2013. 7.1 WAR.

10. Carlos Santana: 14.2 WAR.

11. DUSTIN ACKLEY: Showed a lot of promise his rookie year, finished 6th in ROY voting that year despite only playing in 90 games. In the 3 years since his rookie year has a .237 BA across 314 games. Career 7.4 WAR. Ackley's WAR have been trending downward: 3.8 his rookie year, 2.6 his sophomore year, 1.1 last year and 0.3 so far this year.

12. Alcides Escobar: Started off with the Brewers, traded to the Royals in the Zack Greinke deal. Career 8.0 WAR, had a down year in 2013 with a -0.1 WAR, but had a 3.4 the year before that and is off to a solid start with a 1.3 so far this year.

13. JUSTIN SMOAK: Career .227 hitter. Career WAR of 1.8, despite showing some improvements at the plate, statistically Smoak has regressed from his .238 BA last year to .225 this year. His OBP has also taken a significant drop as it is down to .299 this year, from .334 last year. Smoak has been clutch at times this year, and is on pace for 21 HRs and 87 RBIs, but is still one of the worst starting 1Bs in baseball. Seeing as how our 1B options are slim to none, I wouldn't be surprised to see Smoak back at 1B next year for the Mariners.

14. Madison Bumgarner: Career 3.09 ERA. Made the All-Star game last year and sported a 2.77 ERA in 31 starts with 201 IP. Career WAR of 11.9. One of the better young pitchers in the NL.

15. Domonic Brown: Made the All-Star game last year with 27 HRs and a .272 BA. Although he has a career WAR of -0.5, primarily due to poor defense.

16. Starlin Castro: Finished 5th in ROY voting in 2010. Made the All-Star game in 2011 and 2012. Career WAR of 8.2.

17. Martin Perez: Broke into the majors a bit later than most on this list in 2012. Last year Perez had a 3.62 ERA in 20 starts and finished 6th in AL ROY voting. Career 2.2 WAR, although only has 213 career innings under his belt.

18. Jeremy Hellickson: AL ROY in 2011. His first three years in the majors (2010-2012) had a 3.06 ERA in 64 GS. Had a serious regression in 2013 with a 5.17 ERA in 31 starts. Has yet to pitch in 2014. Career 6.8 WAR.

19. Aaron Hicks: Made it into the majors last year and struggled with a .192 BA and is only hitting .195 this year so far. In his 121 career games across 2 seasons has a 0.3 WAR.

20. LOGAN MORRISON: In 2011 showed flashes of promise with 23 HRs in 123 games, but regressed in 2012 and 2013. After being traded to the Mariners, he has continued to get worse. WAR of -0.2.

The 4 Mariners on this list (Jesus Montero, Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Logan Morrison) have a combined career WAR of 9.3.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Logan Morrison has the 2nd lowest WAR on this list, Jesus Montero is tied with Aaron Hicks for 3rd lowest, Justin Smoak holds the 4th lowest and Dustin Ackley holds the 10th highest WAR.

 

[NWinAZ]

Nice work. I personally hate those lists, but I do look at them for laughs. Same as those Top Systems lists they put out. They are so subjective and a bit misleading. As an example, a guy like Trout wouldn't be used since he is in the majors even though he is the same age or younger than 75% of the players used to rank the organizational systems. I have always said if you are going to do a ranking of systems it should be based on players 25 and younger no matter what level they are on including the majors.

I remember arguing with M's fans 3 or 4 years back when M's were ranked top 5 and I made this same argument. Do you believe me now non believers that the rankings were a joke. I will say it again; the term 'Prospect' to me just means hasn't done it yet. It doesn't mean they ever will.

But again, good work putting that together. I still enjoy a good list.

 

[cezero]

i don't usually get sad about the m's anymore, but this thread makes me sad.

 

[NWinAZ]

Random note: I love MLB Extra Innings because I can watch MLB during the day and the Mariners at night. It balances me out.

 

[SeattleCoug]

The farm/ minor rankings are irrelevant to me as well. The mariners haven't proven they can develop any sort of talent. They can have the #1 ranked system or the 30th, the results will be the same. I'm pretty convinced if guys like Ackley or Smoak were systems like the Cardinals or Red Sox they would be all-stars by now. Not sure why they can't develop anybody. It's easy to blame the GM's but I know it goes much deeper then that.

 

[NWinAZ]

This is where we differ. I don't think in most cases the Mariners are not developing, but think they just don't evaluate well. I don't think the Cards or Sox would waste time on these guys unless if given to them for pennies on the dollar. With all the Cards pitching, they could have traded for Smoak and/or Montero if they wanted to. They never showed interest as far as ever being reported so.

I used this example on another site regarding this same topic. Ackley and Seager drafted on the same day, by the same team, from the same college and went through the same development process. Seager overachieved while Ackley underachieved. My explanation is that Saeger had the MLB 'it' gene while Ackley didn't. I posted on that other site the All-Time leaders in college baseball averages for careers and most guys you never heard from and others were big names that never lived up to it. Rickie Weeks was the All-time greatest college based on average for his career. His bat/approach didn't translate for the Brewers unlike Braun and Fielder whose did with the same development program at the same time.

 

[NWinAZ]

Something I would like to see just for sake of change is trade Ackley for say Domonic Brown. About the same age, both are lefty outfielders, and both have underachieved with their current clubs. Maybe change of scenery will do them both good. It can't hurt. I said the same thing last year regarding Smoak and Ike Davis. Change for sake of change since you aren't going to get a real return for any of them.

 

[NWinAZ]

To add to the Ackley for Brown trade, I would also look at getting Rollins who they have wanted to get rid of but would fill our SS spot for a year or two at least. The time is now because you are never guaranteed tomorrow....see 2001 season and thereafter if you have any questions on that.

 

[unlvmariners]

Something I would like to see just for sake of change is trade Ackley for say Domonic Brown. About the same age, both are lefty outfielders, and both have underachieved with their current clubs. Maybe change of scenery will do them both good. It can't hurt. I said the same thing last year regarding Smoak and Ike Davis. Change for sake of change since you aren't going to get a real return for any of them.

I would take that trade in a heart beat. If you got anything close to what he did in 2013 then that is great.

I don't feel the same about Ike Davis.

 

[cezero]

Random note: I love MLB Extra Innings because I can watch MLB during the day and the Mariners at night. It balances me out.

you've had some zingers the past couple of days

 

[NWinAZ]

I would take that trade in a heart beat. If you got anything close to what he did in 2013 then that is great.

I don't feel the same about Ike Davis.

Exactly.

But remember we would only be trading Smoak for Davis so not sure how you could lose.

 

[NWinAZ]

you've had some zingers the past couple of days

I use to be a workout-aholic and kind of slacked the last year. Now I am dieting and working out again so I think the lack of food and oxygen is contributing to my snarkiness.

 

[unlvmariners]

Exactly.

But remember we would only be trading Smoak for Davis so not sure how you could lose.

Yeah you are probably right the change of scenery factor alone would be worth it and if it doesn't work then you don't really loose anything important. I thought that is what they were trying do with LoMo, then they kept Smoak and I was baffled why you would want two of the same crap on the same team blew my mind.

The real answer will come when/if we flip some pitching for a good all around player with a future.

 

[seahawksfan234]

A lot of times we sports fans talk about a "change of scenery", but really, how often does it even work?

I can understand bringing a pitcher to Safeco since it's a pitchers park, but I'm not sure if the change of scenery thing would apply when bringing a hitter to Seattle considering how anemic our offense has been the past few years.

 

[NWinAZ]

But again, there isn't anything to lose with the people we are trading and they wouldn't get us any better players in return.

 

[navamind]

Keep in mind WAR tends to somewhat underrate catchers.

 

[NWinAZ]

A lot of times we sports fans talk about a "change of scenery", but really, how often does it even work?

I can understand bringing a pitcher to Safeco since it's a pitchers park, but I'm not sure if the change of scenery thing would apply when bringing a hitter to Seattle considering how anemic our offense has been the past few years.

Bautista to Toronto.
Morse to WA
Jaso to M's
Hanley to LA

Just at the top of my head. It does work for whatever reason.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Keep in mind WAR tends to somewhat underrate catchers.

Was just trying to use it as a general measuring stick for each player.

Bautista to Toronto.
Morse to WA
Jaso to M's
Hanley to LA

Just at the top of my head. It does work for whatever reason.

PEDs for those in bold.

Hanley Ramirez always had a boatload of talent and had played at an MVP caliber level in Miami until 2011. When you talk about guys like Smoak and Ackley, they never got it going to begin with.

Not many players leave a bad situation, come to Seattle and succeed. Other than Jaso, the only offensive players I can think about in the past 5-10 years who the change of scenery worked for was Jose Guillen in 2007, Jose Vidro in 2007 and Russell Branyan in 2009. Plus, it's worth noting that none of their success lasted very long.

We are sort of like the black hole of baseball.

 

[NWinAZ]

Cameron I think was another.