Main defensive stat

[Dude]

Deanpet21, he wants to bet fantasy stats.

lol, fantasy football is fun, but it has nothing to do with which team wins the games and why. If you keep the other team from scoring less points, you win, pretty simple math. We've seen this happen many times in big games - playoffs, SB, etc.

 

[Dude]

I've always said points, but it's not to the degree that this lopsided poll shows. There are issues with using points: pick sixes, special teams TDs and situations where the defense is given a short field come into play and can skew the results.

Pick sixes are part of the defense and unusual, unless you're one of those QBs that specialize in that. Special teams goes both ways - they can score points, so that favors the offense? Confusing to be sure, over the long haul, it's points allowed that dictates a great D. If I remember correctly, there were teams like the 84 or 85 Bears, can't remember which year, that had least points allowed and most -or close to- points scored. That's an unbeatable combo.

 

[handicappers]

Yards.....no question.

 

[NinerSickness]

Yards.....no question.

Total yards is the least telling stat there is. It's nearly a meaningless statistic.

The real stats are points per drive and yards per play (on offense or defense). But I've never seen those 2 stats done for some reason.

 

[cowboys5xsbs]

The two most important defensive stats are points given up and third down conversion percentage.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Total yards is the least telling stat there is. It's nearly a meaningless statistic.

The real stats are points per drive and yards per play (on offense or defense). But I've never seen those 2 stats done for some reason.

Points per drive I know for a fact is on Football Outsiders if you're interested.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 OFFENSIVE DRIVE STATS

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Of that list points is the best fitting for me, but all have easy outliers that you can see with the eye test and back up with the numbers behind what drives those things.

Yards, sacks (to a point) and turnovers are really dependent on what an opponent does. Bad offenses usually get run on more often, where there's an average of 3 yards less gained, and of course a major reduction in potential turnovers and sacks. You can find big discrepancies in the league just based on those things.

Take Chicago and NYG last year.

Chi vs. run 4.5 per attempt (25th best)
NYG vs. run 4.4 per attempt (24th best)

Chi vs. pass 7.5 per attempt and a 99 QB rating
NYG vs. pass 7.7 per attempt and a 96 QB rating

But yards allowed favors Chicago by 1200 yards (Chi is 14th ranked, NYG is 32nd ranked). Why? The biggest part is teams had a much higher pass to run ratio vs. NY. Also Chicago ran with a much slower pace on offense. Also NY scored much more often meaning teams had to play more aggressively.

Sacks as well. Take a look at Carolina. Teams throwing a lot against them to keep up. 44 sacks is 6th best in the league. But the most pass attempts in the league were thrown against them. They end up getting a sack 6.3% of the time. Chicago got one 6.4% of the time, so slightly better, but only ended up with 35 sacks because teams ran on them so much more.


Same with points. Schaub going pick 6 crazy, or having a bad coverage team counts there against the D. I think points per drive is better than points, but would take points over any of the others.



And points per drive is done on pro-football reference as well. And PFF and football outsiders. That at least takes pace of play into consideration and removes scores while the D is on the sideline. A better one for sure and what I usually use for a quick reference. But again opponent play-calling really affects that one too, so if you have a bottom 5 offense, I'd take a better than expected points per drive (or hey, that doesn't quite meet the eye test) with a grain of salt as well.

 

[NinerSickness]

Points per drive I know for a fact is on Football Outsiders if you're interested.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 OFFENSIVE DRIVE STATS

Thanks! I'll have to check that out some time.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Thanks! I'll have to check that out some time.

2015 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

There's Pro Football Reference's... Really interesting to see how pace of game can affect points.

 

[VikingsAD28]

I'd go with the coin toss, mainly to piss off Packer fans. hehe. After all, that's why they didn't win the playoff game.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I've always said points, but it's not to the degree that this lopsided poll shows. There are issues with using points: pick sixes, special teams TDs and situations where the defense is given a short field come into play and can skew the results.

You're right, but at the end of the day...a DEF that yields few points (top 10) should have a winning football team. You can be a middle of the road DEF giving up yards and or points and still be a winning team, but you better be turning them over.

 

[Clayton]

I like Yards Per Play and 3rd down conversion percentage when paired with level of competition. 3rd down defense encompasses more than you think.

Yards Per Play last year Dallas was 19th at 5.6 and Washington was 28th at 6.0.
3rd down conversion percentage against Washington (10th) was 37.16% while Dallas (18th) was 39.13%.
Schedule according to offensive DVOA had Dallas at 6th and Washington at 24th.

So Dallas played against better offenses on a routine basis but probably had the better defense.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

I like Yards Per Play and 3rd down conversion percentage when paired with level of competition. 3rd down defense encompasses more than you think.

Yards Per Play last year Dallas was 19th at 5.6 and Washington was 28th at 6.0.
3rd down conversion percentage against Washington (10th) was 37.16% while Dallas (18th) was 39.13%.
Schedule according to offensive DVOA had Dallas at 6th and Washington at 24th.

So Dallas played against better offenses on a routine basis but probably had the better defense.

That is interesting on the DVOA... I usually don't go that deep, but especially odd for a same division team to have such a discrepancy

Wash/Dal both played Philly and NYG twice, AFC East all 4 teams, NFC South all 4 teams. That's 3/4 of their schedule that was exactly the same.

Wash played Chi, STL, and Dal twice
Dal played Sea, GB, and Wash twice

So a nice change in those 4 there to make that

 

[Clayton]

Wash played Chi, STL, and Dal twice
Dal played Sea, GB, and Wash twice

So a nice change in those 4 there to make that

DVOA of those offenses:

Washington: 10th, 29th, 31st, 31st
Dallas: 1st, 11th, 12th, 12th

Something as simple as Tony Romo going down can really throw a wrench in these rankings.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

DVOA of those offenses:

Washington: 10th, 29th, 31st, 31st
Dallas: 1st, 11th, 12th, 12th

Something as simple as Tony Romo going down can really throw a wrench in these rankings.

Yup, pretty crazy... And I think Romo missed both games there vs. Wash, so that would be right.

So basically those 4 teams each average 101 points more per year than their counterparts (Wash teams scored 404 points more than Dal teams). So a difference of 25 points on the year between the two offenses those teams faced right? The other 75% is the same.

4 teams 404 points. /16 games = 25 points total. (other 12 games are the same).


So facing say a 6 vs. 24 different DVOA schedule would be quite a bit less than facing a 6 vs. 24 offense or defense in a game. which makes sense, you can't get too far out with 16 games trying to bring you back to average.

IE 6-24 in DVOA is 25 points a year.
18-24 in points scored is 25 points a year.


Just trying to make more sense of how important DVOA is to a schedule.