I disagree that he was even a reach. Although the jury is out, He could turn into a Trent Richardson, he has the talent to be the best back in the league. I almost wanted to take him as a bears fan because he’s such a special talent, but we had needs elsewhere. When it’s all said and done, would you take an Adrian Peterson with your first pick? That’s the level of player fournette looked like to me coming out of college.
It's pretty close to impossible for an RB to live up to the #4 pick short of being a HOF'er like AP as the slotting makes you one of the more well paid RB's in the league anyways. It's not that Fournette isn't going to be pretty good, it's that he's not a HOF'er. Drafting Hunt or Kamara is superior value in the 3rd round by comparison even if you lose the 5th year option. Or in another instance, would one rather have had Elliot or would one prefer Ramsey? The positional value is just really out of whack for RB's right now even if we're getting a wave that's doing its damnedest to change that.
Where as I totally agree, RBs are a dime a dozen, but Zeke and Fournette are future HOFers. They were can’t miss in my book. When a can’t miss RB comes out like these two, it’s worth a top 5 pick. RB is the easiest position to evaluate talent in my opinion. The downside is they could be an injury away from obscurity and their position makes them very susceptible to injury. What you find yourself asking is, is the injury risk worth the bust risk. Not every RB is Zeke or Fournette though. A lot of teams do reach at that position. And you act like Hunt and Kamara (what about Cohen!?) are sure things. They aren’t coming out of college. When an RB isn’t a sure thing, you can wait, because they are a dime a dozen. When a sure thing like Zeke, Fournette, AP, etc comes out and you don’t have a primary ball carrier, you take him. That pick becomes a weapon immediately and helps you for the next 8ish years.
Let me rephrase myself. If they stay healthy, they are future hofers. Obviously, if they keep getting hurt, they won’t be HOFers. I didn’t think I had to say that, but I guess I do.
Oh god, Nick Wright was brutal out here. He just had enough dry charisma that seems to play nationally.
RB is so dependent on other factors, though.
I feel like we are in total agreement when it comes to drafting runningbacks. There are 5 or 6 can’t miss per decade. However, you quote the success of passing down backs as a reason bell cow backs are going extinct. I respond with the case of Lagarrett Blount. Blount has always been a very very talented rusher. He’s never been able to catch passes for shit, his pass blocking is subpar, he’s very one dimensional as a Power RB. However, even with his short comings, he played a very significant role on a super bowl team. Teams want that rushing capability, but they aren’t able to mask pass blocking/ receiving woes. Fournette can pass block and receive better than Blount and provide better rushing without as much offensive support. That’s worth a top pick to me. If you know you’re getting a guy that’ll bring 8 defenders in the box, it does wonders for youre passing game given a competant QB.
I appreciate the honesty. I don't share that kind of optimism, but I can certainly see it for Zeke if he's stays healthy. Too early with Fournette especially with his expanding history of injuries.
I think that's probably where we depart some. I don't have that kind of confidence in most any pick before seeing them play in the NFL. I might have a pretty good amount of confidence in what a bust is (and probably why this guy saying he is a bust should be laughed at a bit) but a successful NFL player? Tougher call. RB might be an easier position to evaluate, but the NFL has gotten it wrong plenty of times with a great deal of frequency. David Johnson in the 3rd round? Jamaal Charles in the 3rd round? Kamara in the 3rd round? Hunt in the 3rd round? Cohens lurking in the weeds as well. T. Davis? There's just too much depth in the draft at RB to not be attracted to those guys over the uber-RB prospects if you can get 80% of what you think you can get out of Fournette, all things being equal.
