Is Leonard Fournette the clear first pick in rookie drafts?

[SmokingMonkey]

Well, to be fair, we are only taking about a rookie draft, so, we kind of have to speculate which ones have the best chances of taking starting jobs, sooner the better.

just felt like the thread went from rookie draft, to talking about how all these rookies are taking over their team's backfield this year.
Might just be skeptical, but I don't see these rookies being immediate fantasy saviors, due to their situations.

But yea, I like both Fournette and Mixon to take over lead back roles with 3 down potential, which they were drafted to do. Just not sure if happens week 1 their rookie season.

thanks for clarifying!

 

[averagejoe]

Zeke is the exception, not the rule, let's not forget that folks.

Every rookie drafted doesn't automatically walk into the lead role ahead of proven vets, even if they were drafted earlier.

Here's how the rookie RB did last season listed by their original ECR:

Zeke Elliott - (15 gms - 35.7% of Dallas' touches) about as consistent as you can get. Averaged over 18 fantasy points (std leagues) through all 16 weeks.

Derrick Henry - (15 gms - 12.6% of Titans' touches) Used minimally. Averaged 3.8 fantasy pts from weeks 1-11. Then jumped to an average 10.2 the last 5 weeks.

Devontae Booker - (16 gms - 20.9%) Up and down all season. Had games over 10 pts weeks 7, 8, 12 and 17. Averaged 4.3 pts the other weeks.

DeAndre Washington - (14 gms - 10.1%) Had one great week in week 16 (23.7 pts). The other weeks avgd 2.9 pts.

Jordan Howard - (15 gms 29.9%) Didn't start until week 3. Avgd 14.1 points. Week 7 was bad (2.2).

Kenneth Dixon - (12 gms - 11.3%) Looks like after missing the first 4 games, he was eased in, averaging 0.7 pts in weeks 5 thru 9. The last 8 weeks he avgd 8.7 pts with 2 weeks over 10 points.

CJ Prosise - (6 gms - 4.8%) Averaged 13.2 points in weeks 8, 10 and 11. Then 1.4 pts the other 3.

Wendell Smallwood - (13 gms - 7.9%) Week 3 was his best week (13.9). Averaged less than 2 the other weeks.

 

[ehb5]

Here's how the rookie RB did last season listed by their original ECR:

Zeke Elliott - (15 gms - 35.7% of Dallas' touches) about as consistent as you can get. Averaged over 18 fantasy points (std leagues) through all 16 weeks.

Derrick Henry - (15 gms - 12.6% of Titans' touches) Used minimally. Averaged 3.8 fantasy pts from weeks 1-11. Then jumped to an average 10.2 the last 5 weeks.

Devontae Booker - (16 gms - 20.9%) Up and down all season. Had games over 10 pts weeks 7, 8, 12 and 17. Averaged 4.3 pts the other weeks.

DeAndre Washington - (14 gms - 10.1%) Had one great week in week 16 (23.7 pts). The other weeks avgd 2.9 pts.

Jordan Howard - (15 gms 29.9%) Didn't start until week 3. Avgd 14.1 points. Week 7 was bad (2.2).

Kenneth Dixon - (12 gms - 11.3%) Looks like after missing the first 4 games, he was eased in, averaging 0.7 pts in weeks 5 thru 9. The last 8 weeks he avgd 8.7 pts with 2 weeks over 10 points.

CJ Prosise - (6 gms - 4.8%) Averaged 13.2 points in weeks 8, 10 and 11. Then 1.4 pts the other 3.

Wendell Smallwood - (13 gms - 7.9%) Week 3 was his best week (13.9). Averaged less than 2 the other weeks.

Of these guys though none were the level prospect of Cook, Mixon, Mccaffrey, and Fournette except Zeke and maybe Henry. And Henry had significantly more competition in Murray than any of this year's rookies.

 

[averagejoe]

Of these guys though none were the level prospect of Cook, Mixon, Mccaffrey, and Fournette except Zeke and maybe Henry. And Henry had significantly more competition in Murray than any of this year's rookies.

I agree.
But I still wonder if this draft class looks above average because we have a tendency to compare strong draft classes to recent history. And the last few RB classes have been below average as a whole.

Still is no guarantee they'll all do well.

 

[eaglesnut]

It's a deep dynasty and I'm deep at RB:

L. McCoy
DeMarco Murry
Lamar Miller
S. Ware
M. Lynch
C. West
P. Perkins
D. Booker
C. Simms (trying to trade him to the D. Martin owner)

You're deep but you're also old at RB. Good time to get younger and trade an old guy while they still have some value.

 

[eaglesnut]

Here's how the rookie RB did last season listed by their original ECR:

Zeke Elliott - (15 gms - 35.7% of Dallas' touches) about as consistent as you can get. Averaged over 18 fantasy points (std leagues) through all 16 weeks.

Derrick Henry - (15 gms - 12.6% of Titans' touches) Used minimally. Averaged 3.8 fantasy pts from weeks 1-11. Then jumped to an average 10.2 the last 5 weeks.

Devontae Booker - (16 gms - 20.9%) Up and down all season. Had games over 10 pts weeks 7, 8, 12 and 17. Averaged 4.3 pts the other weeks.

DeAndre Washington - (14 gms - 10.1%) Had one great week in week 16 (23.7 pts). The other weeks avgd 2.9 pts.

Jordan Howard - (15 gms 29.9%) Didn't start until week 3. Avgd 14.1 points. Week 7 was bad (2.2).

Kenneth Dixon - (12 gms - 11.3%) Looks like after missing the first 4 games, he was eased in, averaging 0.7 pts in weeks 5 thru 9. The last 8 weeks he avgd 8.7 pts with 2 weeks over 10 points.

CJ Prosise - (6 gms - 4.8%) Averaged 13.2 points in weeks 8, 10 and 11. Then 1.4 pts the other 3.

Wendell Smallwood - (13 gms - 7.9%) Week 3 was his best week (13.9). Averaged less than 2 the other weeks.

That's some great data, I wonder how that Ravens backfield is going to shape up.

What's Henry's ADP? Seems like there could be good value there in that offense with big upside considering Murray's health history.

 

[averagejoe]

That's some great data, I wonder how that Ravens backfield is going to shape up.

What's Henry's ADP? Seems like there could be good value there in that offense with big upside considering Murray's health history.

Thanks eagles.
This is one of the first spreadsheets I run after the NFL season is over.
More of the data here:
NFL Usage Chart

 

[averagejoe]

What's Henry's ADP?

Per FantasyPros, his ECR is 100 and his ADP is 91.
So in 12-team leagues his ADP is round 8.