Homer is gone

[JohnU]

a legitimate consistent right handed power bat.

I think the logic was that Brandon Phillips would be that RH power bat.
The biggest problem was trying to find a supplemental RH power bat to make up for the times when Phillips wasn't. That was supposed to be Rolen.

I think the Ludwick signing was to be the end-all, be-all for that search.

Truth is, finding a RH power bat isn't going to be easy without making some major changes that will basically be like putting the bald tire on the front left wheel, after taking it off the right rear wheel.

I need to add that I think Baker tried to turn all his right-handed hitters into power bats. The result is a lot of 200-K, .220 average, .290 OBP hitters, all scrunched around the concept that 2 lefties can't hit in a row.

 

[chico ruiz]

that's exactly right john. except i think it could have been done without making major changes. i also noticed how the wins piled up when the reds had a healthy productive rolen for a half season. same with ludwick for a half a season. you could throw in a little gomesy as well. it just seems to me that a lineup of 2-phillips, 3-votto, 4-my mystery legitimate right-handed power bat, 5-bruce, 6-frazier / meseraco would be very difficult on opposing managers and pitchers. all debatable for sure. i kept hoping a few years ago that walter would trade for wil meyers. he would have had to give up a starting pitcher and another strong prospect, but i think it would have been worth it. you get the idea. it's the one missing ingredient. and, as i wrote, walter has had 5+ years to make that happen. i guess walter thought ludwick was the answer. ah gee wiz wally.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Yep. Good point.

All else equal, in the absence of a RH power bat, I'd prefer a LH power bat to a RH non-power bat....especially when the LH hit LP better than the available RH's do. I've not seen any evidence of creating zebras by painting stripes on horses.

 

[Redsfan1507]

At the risk of sounding Dunn-ish, Mark Trumbo was traded for a couple of sketchy promises. I think the Ludwick money was forcing Walt to pray for the spray paint job being adequate.

 

[JohnU]

Well, gee, 3 times out of 4 this team has made something resembling post-season. It's easy to rationalize away the disaster from last year. All the same, they DID make post-season, which is the only legal goal a team can have in March. The eventual outcome is another topic.

The point being, Walt can look at the results and say, we're close enough to the brass ring just doing what we have done ... so it's not badly broken. No need to fix it.

Obviously, that isn't completely the case. Another efficient bat in the lineup makes this team a true contender, not one that needs to get some help from a flop in St. Louis or Pittsburgh.

I don't see that Walt, and maybe Castellini and Price, wanted to go get the guy that would cost them a pitcher. Until Homer signed, there was (and still is) some concern at the 4-5 layers of the rotation.

Cincy could have dealt Bailey as a rental. I don't see that was ever going to happen. Bailey was either going to sign or he was going to walk, which is the premise of this thread in the first place.

I still think the F.O. is counting on 20 HR from Frazier, 20 from BP, 10 from Cozart, 15-20 from "out of left field" and maybe another 60 from JV and Bruce. I would rather have 200 doubles than 150 HR, to be honest.

More than anything, what hurts is that there has been zero evidence that a good RH power bat has emerged from the farm system. And that is not going to change this year. Maybe Perry Erwin is the guy for 2015-6.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Maybe we're being lead astray by our assumption the Reds have an architect with a grand plan...when in fact, draft picks are normally taken by next available best talent, not by position or L/R preference.

Signings and trades at AAA or MLB level, I tend to grade GM's more harshly on. These are near term players that I would hope fit in the missing puzzle pieces. I think LF has been a punt position since Dunn, and really, Votto's 1b only situation probably punted Dunn to LF, in truth. In all honesty, I think the low dollar risks with Gomes, Heisey, Ludwick, Paul, etc. made good sense in that plan. LF is the least defensively critical position, and if your saving bucks for pitchers and gold glove 2b, and power hitting RF and 1b, I understand taking a $3-4 mil chance on a guy that might give you half a season of 7 hitter production...what I DON'T understand is turning that half season into a 2 year deal worth $14M when the guy is middle aged and rarely that productive in his career. I think Walt stumped his toe there.

I think trading 2 pitchers and an outfielder for a middle reliever like Marshall was another overpayment. Latos cost 2 pitchers, the best hitting catcher in a decade of Reds prospects, and a #1 pick with hitting credentials. I like Latos, but would remind people that the first year of the Hamilton/Volquez trade looked like it made sense...and if the Padres stat getting .280/20 HR production out if their remaining position players, and Latos starts putting up injury plagued .500 seasons, Walt will have overpaid there too.

Signing Choo for one year wasn't an epiphany, it cost a few players and $8Mil in rent- all gone without reimbursement now.

I credit Walt for bringing credibility back to the Reds front office, and for signing players he didnt aquire- Votto, Cueto, Bruce, Phillips, Bailey long term, but have to question his methods in keeping Dusty so long, for the Broxton and Madson goose chases, and the overpayment for role players that haven't lived up to their role, or are likely to in the future.

Maybe Price will be the better instrument of Walt's grand plan...or maybe, he'll just adapt better to the incongruent roster Walt has been prone to provide. He has made mistakes, and he has spent more payroll each year, and the result has been playoff appearences without a single home win in post season. I like that better than hoping to play .500 at half the payroll, but generally when I pay more, I expect more. The Reds payroll will be at another all time high this year, but I'll be surprised if the team improves. I don't see the team as being a finished product at all...but not sure Walt sees it that way.